Nat Comput 2022 Jun 18:1-13. Epub 2022 Jun 18.
Faculdade de Computação e Informática & Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Elétrica e Computação, Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie, Rua da Consolação 896, Consolação, 01302-907 São Paulo, SP Brazil.
In the context of the propagation of infectious diseases, when a sufficient degree of immunisation is achieved within a population, the spread of the disease is ended or significantly decreased, leading to collective immunity, meaning the indirect protection given by immune individuals to susceptible individuals. Here we describe the estimates of the collective immunity to COVID-19 from a stochastic cellular automaton based model designed to emulate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in a population of static individuals interacting only via a Moore neighbourhood of radius one, with a view to analyze the impact of initially immune individuals on the dynamics of COVID-19. This impact was measured by comparing a progression of initial immunity ratio-the percentage of immunised individuals before patient zero starts infecting its neighbourhood-from 0 to 95% of the initial population, with the number of susceptible individuals not contaminated, the peak value of active cases, the total number of deaths and the emulated pandemic duration in days. Read More