38 results match your criteria outcome-specific predictive


Outcome unpredictability affects outcome-specific motivation to learn.

Psychon Bull Rev 2021 May 4. Epub 2021 May 4.

Department of Psychology, Philipps-University Marburg, Gutenbergstrasse 18, 35052, Marburg, Germany.

Outcome predictability effects in associative learning paradigms describe better learning about outcomes with a history of greater predictability in a similar but unrelated task compared with outcomes with a history of unpredictability. Inspired by the similarities between this phenomenon and the effect of uncontrollability in learned helplessness paradigms, here, we investigate whether learning about unpredictability decreases outcome-specific motivation to learn. We used a modified version of the allergy task, in which participants first observe the foods eaten by a fictitious patient, followed by allergic reactions that he subsequently suffers, some of which are perfectly predictable and others unpredictable. Read More

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How predictive learning influences choice: Evidence for a GPCR-based memory process necessary for Pavlovian-instrumental transfer.

J Neurochem 2021 Mar 4. Epub 2021 Mar 4.

Decision Neuroscience Laboratory, School of Psychology, UNSW SYDNEY, Randwick, NSW, Australia.

Predictive learning endows stimuli with the capacity to signal both the sensory-specific and general motivational properties of their associated rewards or outcomes. These two signals can be distinguished behaviorally by their influence on the selection and performance of instrumental actions, respectively. This review focuses on how sensory-specific predictive learning guides choice between actions that earn otherwise equally desirable outcomes. Read More

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Joint model for survival and multivariate sparse functional data with application to a study of Alzheimer's Disease.

Biometrics 2021 Jan 26. Epub 2021 Jan 26.

Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA.

Studies of Alzheimer's disease (AD) often collect multiple longitudinal clinical outcomes, which are correlated and predictive of AD progression. It is of great scientific interest to investigate the association between the outcomes and time to AD onset. We model the multiple longitudinal outcomes as multivariate sparse functional data and propose a functional joint model linking multivariate functional data to event time data. Read More

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January 2021

New outcome-specific comorbidity scores excelled in predicting in-hospital mortality and healthcare charges in administrative databases.

J Clin Epidemiol 2020 10 12;126:141-153. Epub 2020 Jun 12.

Department of Healthcare Economics and Quality Management, Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Yoshida Konoe-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501, Japan. Electronic address:

Objectives: To determine the most reliable comorbidity measure, we adapted and validated outcome-specific comorbidity scores to predict mortality and hospital charges using the comorbidities composing the Charlson and Elixhauser measures and the combination of these two used in developing Gagne's combined comorbidity scores (CC, EC, and GC, respectively).

Study Design And Setting: We divided cases of patients discharged in 2016-17 from the Diagnosis Procedure Combination database (n = 2,671,749) into two: one to derive weights for the scores, and the other for validation. We further validated them in subgroups, such as that with a selected diagnosis. Read More

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October 2020

Development and validation of the Cambridge Multimorbidity Score.

CMAJ 2020 02;192(5):E107-E114

Centre for Academic Primary Care (Payne), Population Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK; Primary Care Unit (Mendonca, Saunders, Edwards, Roland), Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Institute of Public Health, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK; RAND Corporation (Elliott), Santa Monica, Calif.; Research Department of Primary Care and Population Health (Marshall), University College London Medical School, Royal Free Campus, London, UK.

Background: Health services have failed to respond to the pressures of multimorbidity. Improved measures of multimorbidity are needed for conducting research, planning services and allocating resources.

Methods: We modelled the association between 37 morbidities and 3 key outcomes (primary care consultations, unplanned hospital admission, death) at 1 and 5 years. Read More

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February 2020

Under the influence of the environment: Children's responding invigorated and biased by predictive cues.

J Exp Child Psychol 2020 03 3;191:104741. Epub 2019 Dec 3.

School of Psychology, University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK.

Cues that signal motivationally significant consequences can elevate responding and bias choice. A task known as Pavlovian-to-instrumental transfer (PIT) has been used to assess the influence of these cues on independently trained responses and to study the effect of drug-related and food-related cues on behavior in adult populations, but it has not yet been employed in children. This study aimed to develop a simple computer task to study PIT in children. Read More

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Prediction of time of delivery using cervical length measurement in women with threatened preterm labor.

J Matern Fetal Neonatal Med 2019 Oct 1:1-6. Epub 2019 Oct 1.

Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital , Brisbane , Australia.

To evaluate the use of transvaginal (TV) sonographic cervical length (CL) measurement alone in predicting time of delivery in women who present in threatened preterm labor. A retrospective cohort study at Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital of all women who presented between 22 weeks and 0 days and 35 weeks and six-day gestation in threatened preterm labor and were admitted for ongoing management including a TV sonographic CL measure. The accuracy of CL for predicting time of delivery was compared between women with a short cervix (CL  < 25 mm) and those with a normal cervix (CL ≥25 mm). Read More

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October 2019

Predicting Opioid Use, Increased Health Care Utilization and High Costs for Musculoskeletal Pain: What Factors Mediate Pain Intensity and Disability?

J Pain 2020 Jan - Feb;21(1-2):135-145. Epub 2019 Jun 13.

Department of Orthopaedic Surgery Duke University, Duke Clinical Research Institute, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina; Department of Orthopeadic Surgery, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina.

This study determined the predictive capabilities of pain intensity and disability on health care utilization (number of condition-specific health care visits, incident, and chronic opioid use) and costs (total condition-specific and overall medical costs) in the year following an initial evaluation for musculoskeletal pain. We explored pain catastrophizing and spatial distribution of symptoms (ie, body diagram symptom score) as mediators of these relationships. Two hundred eighty-three military service members receiving initial care for a musculoskeletal injury completed a region-specific disability measure, numeric pain rating scale, Pain Catastrophizing Scale, and body pain diagram. Read More

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Total Ankle Arthroplasty Survival and Risk Factors for Failure.

Foot Ankle Int 2019 Sep 7;40(9):997-1006. Epub 2019 Jun 7.

1 University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada.

Background: Total ankle arthroplasty (TAA) is an increasingly selected treatment for end-stage ankle arthritis; however, failure and revision of the tibial and talar components remains an issue. Although multiple risk factors have been shown to contribute to early component revision, no study has looked at combining such risk factors into a predictive model that could potentially decrease revision rates and improve implant survival. This study aimed to develop a predictive model for TAA failure based on patient characteristics, patient-reported outcomes (PROs), and immediate postoperative radiographs. Read More

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September 2019

Ventral Tegmental Dopamine Neurons Participate in Reward Identity Predictions.

Curr Biol 2019 01 20;29(1):93-103.e3. Epub 2018 Dec 20.

Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Krieger School of Arts and Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218, USA; The Solomon H. Snyder Department of Neuroscience, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA; Kavli Neuroscience Discovery Institute, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA. Electronic address:

Dopamine (DA) neurons in the ventral tegmental area (VTA) and substantia nigra (SNc) encode reward prediction errors (RPEs) and are proposed to mediate error-driven learning. However, the learning strategy engaged by DA-RPEs remains controversial. RPEs might imbue predictive cues with pure value, independently of representations of their associated outcome. Read More

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January 2019

Two morbidity indices developed in a nationwide population permitted performant outcome-specific severity adjustment.

J Clin Epidemiol 2018 11 6;103:60-70. Epub 2018 Aug 6.

Centre for Research in Epidemiology and Population Health, French National Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM U1018), Université Paris-Saclay, Université Paris-Sud, UVSQ, 16, Avenue Paul Vaillant Couturier, 94807 Villejuif Cedex, France.

Objective: The objective of the study was to develop and validate two outcome-specific morbidity indices in a population-based setting: the Mortality-Related Morbidity Index (MRMI) predictive of all-cause mortality and the Expenditure-Related Morbidity Index (ERMI) predictive of health care expenditure.

Study Design And Setting: A cohort including all beneficiaries of the main French health insurance scheme aged 65 years or older on December 31, 2013 (N = 7,672,111), was randomly split into a development population for index elaboration and a validation population for predictive performance assessment. Age, gender, and selected lists of conditions identified through standard algorithms available in the French health insurance database (SNDS) were used as predictors for 2-year mortality and 2-year health care expenditure in separate models. Read More

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November 2018

Multi-Task Learning to Identify Outcome-Specific Risk Factors that Distinguish Individual Micro and Macrovascular Complications of Type 2 Diabetes.

AMIA Jt Summits Transl Sci Proc 2018 18;2017:122-131. Epub 2018 May 18.

Institute for Health Informatics, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA.

Because deterioration in overall metabolic health underlies multiple complications of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus, a substantial overlap among risk factors for the complications exists, and this makes the outcomes difficult to distinguish. We hypothesized each risk factor had two roles: describing the extent of deteriorating overall metabolic health and signaling a particular complication the patient is progressing towards. We aimed to examine feasibility of our proposed methodology that separates these two roles, thereby, improving interpretation of predictions and helping prioritize which complication to target first. Read More

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Extinction Generates Outcome-Specific Conditioned Inhibition.

Curr Biol 2016 12 27;26(23):3169-3175. Epub 2016 Oct 27.

Decision Neuroscience Laboratory, School of Psychology, University of New South Wales, Kensington, NSW 2052, Australia; Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW 2050, Australia. Electronic address:

Extinction involves altering a previously established predictive relationship between a cue and its outcome by repeatedly presenting that cue alone. Although it is widely accepted that extinction generates some form of inhibitory learning [1-4], direct evidence for this claim has been lacking, and the nature of the associative changes induced by extinction have, therefore, remained a matter of debate [5-8]. In the current experiments, we used a novel behavioral approach that we recently developed and that provides a direct measure of conditioned inhibition [9] to compare the influence of extinguished and non-extinguished cues on choice between goal-directed actions. Read More

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December 2016

Role of Cervical Length Measurement for Preterm Delivery Prediction in Women With Threatened Preterm Labor and Cervical Dilatation.

J Ultrasound Med 2016 Dec 25;35(12):2631-2640. Epub 2016 Oct 25.

Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Helen Schneider Hospital for Women, Rabin Medical Center, Petach Tikva, Israel.

Objectives: To compare the accuracy and cutoff points for cervical length for predicting preterm delivery in women with threatened preterm labor between those with a closed cervix and cervical dilatation.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of women with singleton pregnancies with threatened preterm labor before 34 weeks. The accuracy of cervical length for predicting preterm delivery was compared between women with cervical dilatation (0. Read More

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December 2016

Amygdala mu-opioid receptors mediate the motivating influence of cue-triggered reward expectations.

Eur J Neurosci 2017 02 28;45(3):381-387. Epub 2016 Nov 28.

Department of Psychology, UCLA, 1285 Franz Hall, Box 951563, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, USA.

Environmental reward-predictive stimuli can retrieve from memory a specific reward expectation that allows them to motivate action and guide choice. This process requires the basolateral amygdala (BLA), but little is known about the signaling systems necessary within this structure. Here we examined the role of the neuromodulatory opioid receptor system in the BLA in such cue-directed action using the outcome-specific Pavlovian-to-instrumental transfer (PIT) test in rats. Read More

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February 2017

Modulation of cue-triggered reward seeking by cholinergic signaling in the dorsomedial striatum.

Eur J Neurosci 2017 02 21;45(3):358-364. Epub 2016 Nov 21.

Brain Research Institute, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, USA.

The dorsomedial striatum (DMS) has been strongly implicated in flexible, outcome-based decision making, including the outcome-specific Pavlovian-to-instrumental transfer effect (PIT), which measures the tendency for a reward-predictive cue to preferentially motivate actions that have been associated with the predicted reward over actions associated with different rewards. Although the neurochemical underpinnings of this effect are not well understood, there is growing evidence that striatal acetylcholine signaling may play an important role. This study investigated this hypothesis by assessing the effects of intra-DMS infusions of the nicotinic antagonist mecamylamine or the muscarinic antagonist scopolamine on expression of specific PIT in rats. Read More

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February 2017

Assessing the predictive accuracy of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Project Surgical Risk Calculator in open ventral hernia repair.

Am J Surg 2016 Aug 4;212(2):272-81. Epub 2016 May 4.

Division of Plastic Surgery, Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, University of Pennsylvania Health System, Philadelphia, PA, USA. Electronic address:

Background: Preoperative surgical risk assessment continues to be a critical component of clinical decision-making. The ACS Universal Risk Calculator estimates risk for several outcomes based on individual risk profiles. Although this represents a tremendous step toward improving outcomes, studies have reported inaccuracies among certain patient populations. Read More

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Nucleus accumbens core and shell are differentially involved in general and outcome-specific forms of Pavlovian-instrumental transfer with alcohol and sucrose rewards.

Eur J Neurosci 2016 05 31;43(9):1229-36. Epub 2016 Mar 31.

Department of Neurology, University of California at San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.

Alcohol-associated stimuli contribute to relapse risk. Therefore, understanding the behavioural and neural mechanisms underlying the ability of such stimuli to promote alcohol-seeking is important for developing effective treatments for alcohol-use disorders. The Pavlovian-instrumental transfer (PIT) paradigm can be used to study the influence of Pavlovian cues on independently-trained instrumental responses earning reward. Read More

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Learning and Motivational Processes Contributing to Pavlovian-Instrumental Transfer and Their Neural Bases: Dopamine and Beyond.

Curr Top Behav Neurosci 2016 ;27:259-89

Brain and Mind Research Institute, University of Sydney, 94 Mallett Street, Camperdown, NSW, 2050, Australia.

Pavlovian stimuli exert a range of effects on behavior from simple conditioned reflexes, such as salivation, to altering the vigor and direction of instrumental actions. It is currently accepted that these distinct behavioral effects stem from two sources (i) the various associative connections between predictive stimuli and the component features of the events that these stimuli predict and (ii) the distinct motivational and cognitive functions served by cues, particularly their arousing and informational effects on the selection and performance of specific actions. Here, we describe studies that have assessed these latter phenomena using a paradigm that has come to be called Pavlovian-instrumental transfer. Read More

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Systematic review regarding metabolic profiling for improved pathophysiological understanding of disease and outcome prediction in respiratory infections.

Respir Res 2015 Oct 15;16:125. Epub 2015 Oct 15.

Medical University Department, Division of General Internal and Emergency Medicine, Kantonsspital Aarau, Aarau, Switzerland.

Metabolic profiling through targeted quantification of a predefined subset of metabolites, performed by mass spectrometric analytical techniques, allows detailed investigation of biological pathways and thus may provide information about the interaction of different organic systems, ultimately improving understanding of disease risk and prognosis in a variety of diseases. Early risk assessment, in turn, may improve patient management in regard to cite-of-care decisions and treatment modalities. Within this review, we focus on the potential of metabolic profiling to improve our pathophysiological understanding of disease and management of patients. Read More

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October 2015

Basolateral amygdala rapid glutamate release encodes an outcome-specific representation vital for reward-predictive cues to selectively invigorate reward-seeking actions.

Sci Rep 2015 Jul 27;5:12511. Epub 2015 Jul 27.

1] Dept. of Psychology, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA [2] Brain Research Institute, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA.

Environmental stimuli have the ability to generate specific representations of the rewards they predict and in so doing alter the selection and performance of reward-seeking actions. The basolateral amygdala participates in this process, but precisely how is unknown. To rectify this, we monitored, in near-real time, basolateral amygdala glutamate concentration changes during a test of the ability of reward-predictive cues to influence reward-seeking actions (Pavlovian-instrumental transfer). Read More

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δ-opioid and dopaminergic processes in accumbens shell modulate the cholinergic control of predictive learning and choice.

J Neurosci 2014 Jan;34(4):1358-69

Behavioural Neuroscience Laboratory, Brain and Mind Research Institute, The University of Sydney, New South Wales 2006, Australia, and Clem Jones Centre for Ageing Dementia Research, Queensland Brain Institute, The University of Queensland, Queensland 4072, Australia.

Decision-making depends on the ability to extract predictive information from the environment to guide future actions. Outcome-specific Pavlovian-instrumental transfer (PIT) provides an animal model of this process in which a stimulus predicting a particular outcome biases choice toward actions earning that outcome. Recent evidence suggests that cellular adaptations of δ-opioid receptors (DORs) on cholinergic interneurons (CINs) in the nucleus accumbens shell (NAc-S) are necessary for PIT. Read More

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January 2014

Predictive value of cervical length in women with threatened preterm labor.

Obstet Gynecol 2013 Dec;122(6):1279-87

Helen Schneider Hospital for Women, Rabin Medical Center, Petach Tikva, and Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel.

Objective: To assess the predictive role of ultrasonographic cervical length for preterm delivery in women with threatened preterm labor.

Methods: A retrospective cohort study of women with singleton pregnancies who presented with preterm labor before 34 weeks of gestation and underwent ultrasonographic measurement of cervical length in a tertiary medical center. Women with cervical cerclage, cervical dilatation greater than 3 cm at presentation, and pregnancies complicated by placental abruption, clinical chorioamnionitis, stillbirth, or major fetal anomalies were excluded. Read More

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December 2013

The Relative Importance of Psychopathy-Related Traits in Predicting Impersonal Sex and Hostile Masculinity.

Pers Individ Dif 2013 Oct;55(7):817-822

Wayne State University, 4707 St. Antoine, W534, Department of Pediatrics, Detroit, MI 48201,

This paper reports the relative contributions of several facets of subclinical psychopathy (i.e., callous affect, erratic lifestyle, interpersonal manipulation), subclinical narcissism (i. Read More

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October 2013

The ventral striato-pallidal pathway mediates the effect of predictive learning on choice between goal-directed actions.

J Neurosci 2013 Aug;33(34):13848-60

Brain and Mind Research Institute, University of Sydney, Camperdown, Australia.

The nucleus accumbens shell (NAc-S) plays an important role in the way stimuli that predict reward affect the performance of, and choice between, goal-directed actions in tests of outcome-specific Pavlovian-instrumental transfer (PIT). The neural processes involved in PIT downstream of the ventral striatum are, however, unknown. The NAc-S projects prominently to the ventral pallidum (VP), and in the current experiments, we assessed the involvement of the NAc-S to VP projection in specific PIT in rats. Read More

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COMPASS: a novel risk-adjustment model for catheter ablation in pediatric and congenital heart disease patients.

Congenit Heart Dis 2013 Sep-Oct;8(5):393-405. Epub 2013 Mar 13.

Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, Mass, USA.

Background: Robust risk-adjustment algorithms are often necessary if data from clinical registries is to be used to compare rates of important clinical outcomes between participating centers. Although such algorithms have been successfully developed for surgical and catheter-based cardiac interventions in children, outcomes of pediatric and congenital catheter ablation have not been modeled with respect to case mix.

Methods: A working group was appointed by the Pediatric and Congenital Electrophysiology Society to develop a risk-adjustment algorithm for use in conjunction with a modernized, multicenter registry database. Read More

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The general and outcome-specific forms of Pavlovian-instrumental transfer are differentially mediated by the nucleus accumbens core and shell.

J Neurosci 2011 Aug;31(33):11786-94

School of Psychology, The University of Sydney, Sydney NSW 2006, Australia.

Tests of Pavlovian-instrumental transfer (PIT) demonstrate that reward-predictive stimuli can exert a powerful motivational influence on the performance of instrumental actions. Recent evidence suggests that predictive stimuli produce this effect through either the general arousal (general PIT) or the specific predictions (outcome-specific PIT) produced by their association with reward. In two experiments, we examined the effects of pretraining lesions (Experiment 1) or muscimol-induced inactivation (Experiment 2) of either the core or shell regions of the nucleus accumbens (NAC) on these forms of PIT. Read More

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Serum neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin at inception of renal replacement therapy predicts survival in critically ill patients with acute kidney injury.

Crit Care 2010 1;14(1):R9. Epub 2010 Feb 1.

Department of Nephrology & Hypertension, Hannover Medical School, Carl-Neuberg Strasse 1, D-30625, Hannover, Germany.

Introduction: Neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) is a promising novel biomarker that correlates with the severity and outcome of acute kidney injury (AKI). However, its prognostic utility during the late course of AKI, especially in patients that require renal replacement therapy (RRT) remains unknown. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of serum NGAL in patients with established AKI at inception of RRT in the intensive care unit (ICU). Read More

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September 2010

Associatively learned representations of taste outcomes activate taste-encoding neural ensembles in gustatory cortex.

J Neurosci 2009 Dec;29(49):15386-96

Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland 21218, USA.

Through learning processes, cues associated with emotionally salient reinforcing outcomes can come to act as substitutes for the reinforcer itself. According to one account of this phenomenon, the predictive cue associatively elicits a representation of the expected outcome by reactivating cells responsible for encoding features of the primary reinforcer. We tested this hypothesis by examining the role of neural ensembles in gustatory cortex (GC) during receipt of gustatory stimuli (sucrose and water) and cues associated with those stimuli using the immediate early genes (IEGs) Arc and Homer1a. Read More

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December 2009