Cancer Epidemiol 2021 Apr 7;72:101935. Epub 2021 Apr 7.
The Viertel Cancer Research Centre, Cancer Council Queensland, PO Box 201, Spring Hill, Brisbane, Queensland, 4004, Australia; School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, GPO Box 2434, Brisbane, Queensland, 4001, Australia; Menzies Health Institute Queensland, Griffith University, G40 Griffith Health Centre, Gold Coast Campus, Queensland, Gold Coast, 4222, Australia. Electronic address:
Background: Accurate forecasts of cancer incidence, with appropriate estimates of uncertainty, are crucial for planners and policy makers to ensure resource availability and prioritize interventions. We used Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) models to project the future incidence of cancer in Australia.
Methods: Bayesian APC models were fitted to counts of cancer diagnoses in Australia from 1982 to 2016 and projected to 2031 for seven key cancer types: breast, colorectal, liver, lung, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, melanoma and stomach. Read More