Epidemics 2021 03 17;34:100432. Epub 2020 Dec 17.
Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Andrew Wiles Building, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road, Oxford, OX2 6GG, UK; Christ Church, University of Oxford, St Aldates, Oxford, OX1 1DP, UK; Present address: Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Zeeman Building, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.
Previous exposure to influenza viruses confers cross-immunity against future infections with related strains. However, this is not always accounted for explicitly in mathematical models used for forecasting during influenza outbreaks. We show that, if an influenza outbreak is due to a strain that is similar to one that has emerged previously, then accounting for cross-immunity explicitly can improve the accuracy of real-time forecasts. Read More