1,269 results match your criteria ecological forecasts

A roadmap towards predicting species interaction networks (across space and time).

Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2021 Nov 20;376(1837):20210063. Epub 2021 Sep 20.

Sciences Biologiques, Université de Montréal, Montréal, Canada H2V 0B3.

Networks of species interactions underpin numerous ecosystem processes, but comprehensively sampling these interactions is difficult. Interactions intrinsically vary across space and time, and given the number of species that compose ecological communities, it can be tough to distinguish between a true negative (where two species never interact) from a false negative (where two species have not been observed interacting even though they actually do). Assessing the likelihood of interactions between species is an imperative for several fields of ecology. Read More

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November 2021

Anthropogenic land‒use impacts on the size structure of macroinvertebrate assemblages are jointly modulated by local conditions and spatial processes.

Environ Res 2021 Sep 16;204(Pt B):112055. Epub 2021 Sep 16.

Freshwater Centre, Finnish Environment Institute, PO Box 413, FI‒90014, Oulu, Finland. Electronic address:

Body size descriptors and associated resemblance measurements may provide useful tools for forecasting ecological responses to increasing anthropogenic land‒use disturbances. Yet, the influences of agriculture and urbanisation on the size structure of biotic assemblages have seldom been investigated in running waters. Using a comprehensive dataset on stream macroinvertebrates from 21 river basins across Western Finland, we assessed whether the structure of assemblages via changes in taxonomic composition and body size distributions responded predictably to anthropogenic land‒use impacts. Read More

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September 2021

Short Term Real-Time Rolling Forecast of Urban River Water Levels Based on LSTM: A Case Study in Fuzhou City, China.

Int J Environ Res Public Health 2021 Sep 2;18(17). Epub 2021 Sep 2.

School of Civil Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410075, China.

Water level management is an important part of urban water system management. In flood season, the river should be controlled to ensure the ecological and landscape water level. In non-flood season, the water level should be lowered to ensure smooth drainage. Read More

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September 2021

[A review of research on the urban thermal environment effects of green quantity].

Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao 2020 Aug;31(8):2804-2816

School of Architecture and Design, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, Jiangsu, China.

The regulative function of green quantity in urban thermal environment is an important topic in urban studies. Here, we reviewed the concepts and developments of green quantity, the measurements of green quantity and urban thermal environment, the relevance between green quantity and urban thermal environment, and its implications for urban planning. After summarizing domestic and international research processes, we put forward four prospective directions: 1) improving the methods for three-dimensional investigation of green quantity, 2) developing means for urban thermal environment monitoring and forecasting, 3) establishing an index system for three-dimensional pattern of urban green quantity, and 4) creating three-dimensional analytical methods to quantify the relationship between green quantity and urban thermal environment. Read More

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Wiad Lek 2021 ;74(7):1628-1633


Objective: The aim: To improve epidemiological monitoring of pertussis by analyzing the disease morbidity during 1995-2017 in Ukraine, to make a prognosis.

Patients And Methods: Materials and methods: Analysis of the pertussis morbidity during 1995-2017 using the data of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine. The cyclicity was determined by Fourier spectral analysis. Read More

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September 2021

Biotic interactions are more often important at species' warm versus cool range edges.

Ecol Lett 2021 Aug 27. Epub 2021 Aug 27.

Department of Biology, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.

Predicting which ecological factors constrain species distributions is a fundamental ecological question and critical to forecasting geographic responses to global change. Darwin hypothesised that abiotic factors generally impose species' high-latitude and high-elevation (typically cool) range limits, whereas biotic interactions more often impose species' low-latitude/low-elevation (typically warm) limits, but empirical support has been mixed. Here, we clarify three predictions arising from Darwin's hypothesis and show that previously mixed support is partially due to researchers testing different predictions. Read More

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Evaluating online and tangible interfaces for engaging stakeholders in forecasting and control of biological invasions.

Ecol Appl 2021 Aug 27:e02446. Epub 2021 Aug 27.

Center for Geospatial Analytics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, 27695, USA.

Ecological forecasts will be best suited to inform intervention strategies if they are accessible to a diversity of decision-makers. Researchers are developing intuitive forecasting interfaces to guide stakeholders through the development of intervention strategies and visualization of results. Yet, few studies to date have evaluated how user interface design facilitates the coordinated, cross-boundary management required for controlling biological invasions. Read More

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Entropy as an Objective Function of Optimization Multimodal Transportations.

Entropy (Basel) 2021 Jul 24;23(8). Epub 2021 Jul 24.

Department of Economics and Finance, Educational and Scientific Institute of Marine Business, Odesa National Maritime University, 65029 Odesa, Ukraine.

This article considers the use of the entropy method in the optimization and forecasting of multimodal transport under conditions of risks that can be determined simultaneously by deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy quantities. This will allow to change the route of transportation in real time in an optimal way with an unacceptable increase in the risk at one of its next stages and predict the redistribution of the load of transport nodes. The aim of this study is to develop a mathematical model for the optimal choice of an alternative route, the best for one or more objective functions in real time. Read More

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Assessing the effects of cascade dams on river ecological status using multi-species interaction-based index of biotic integrity (Mt-IBI).

J Environ Manage 2021 Aug 23;299:113585. Epub 2021 Aug 23.

Key Laboratory of Integrated Regulation and Resource Development on Shallow Lakes, Ministry of Education, College of Environment, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, PR China.

Cascade dams have exerted significant effects on river ecosystems. To quantitatively assess dam-induced effects on river ecological status, a novel multi-species interaction-based index of biotic integrity (Mt-IBI) was developed. Benthic microbiota was selected as a bio-indicator for its sensitivity to the environmental disturbance. Read More

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Spatial pattern identification (SPI) for ecological modelling.

MethodsX 2021 18;8:101278. Epub 2021 Feb 18.

Sustainability Solutions Research Lab, University of Pannonia, Hungary.

There is a growing interest to understand the static and dynamic components of population ranges. In general, the frequently used environmental forecasting and evaluating methods of occurrences like niche-based statistical processes are based on the static evaluation of the causative environmental variables. These techniques do not consider that natural populations of species form the systems of complex, connected networks. Read More

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February 2021

SDM-CropProj - A model-assisted framework to forecast crop environmental suitability and fruit production.

MethodsX 2021 23;8:101394. Epub 2021 May 23.

Escola Superior Agrária, Instituto Politécnico de Viana do Castelo, Praça Gen. Barbosa 44, 4900-347 Viana do Castelo, Portugal.

The effects of climate change (CC) will impact species ranges, and crops are no exception. Anticipating these changes through forecasting the environmentally suitable area of crops would help to reduce or mitigate the impact and adapt ecological and economic strategies. To forecast the CC effects on crops, we describe here a model-assisted framework (hereafter SDM-CropProj) that combines two modelling steps to be implemented in sequence: i) a multi-technique calibration process and ensemble-forecasting approach to predict the current and future environmental suitability of target crops; ii) a parsimonious univariate log-log linear model to relate the average total annual production to the current SDM-based suitable area. Read More

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Reservoir computing on epidemic spreading: A case study on COVID-19 cases.

Phys Rev E 2021 Jul;104(1-1):014308

Physics and Applied Mathematics Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, 203 B. T. Road, Kolkata 700108, India.

A reservoir computing based echo state network (ESN) is used here for the purpose of predicting the spread of a disease. The current infection trends of a disease in some targeted locations are efficiently captured by the ESN when it is fed with the infection data for other locations. The performance of the ESN is first tested with synthetic data generated by numerical simulations of independent uncoupled patches, each governed by the classical susceptible-infected-recovery model for a choice of distributed infection parameters. Read More

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West Nile virus is predicted to be more geographically widespread in New York State and Connecticut under future climate change.

Glob Chang Biol 2021 Aug 15. Epub 2021 Aug 15.

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, New York, USA.

The effects of climate change on infectious diseases are a topic of considerable interest and discussion. We studied West Nile virus (WNV) in New York (NY) and Connecticut (CT) using a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model climate change scenario, which allows us to examine the effects of climate change and variability on WNV risk at county level. We chose WNV because it is well studied, has caused over 50,000 reported human cases, and over 2200 deaths in the United States. Read More

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Snapshot Wisconsin: networking community scientists and remote sensing to improve ecological monitoring and management.

Ecol Appl 2021 Aug 9:e02436. Epub 2021 Aug 9.

Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, 53706, USA.

Biological data collection is entering a new era. Community science, satellite remote sensing (SRS), and local forms of remote sensing (e.g. Read More

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Integrating functional traits into correlative species distribution models to investigate the vulnerability of marine human activities to climate change.

Sci Total Environ 2021 Jul 31;799:149351. Epub 2021 Jul 31.

Laboratory of Ecology, Department of Earth and Marine Sciences (DiSTeM), University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy.

Climate change and particularly warming are significantly impacting marine ecosystems and the services they provided. Temperature, as the main factor driving all biological processes, may influence ectotherms metabolism, thermal tolerance limits and distribution species patterns. The joining action of climate change and local stressors (including the increasing human marine use) may facilitate the spread of non-indigenous and native outbreak forming species, leading to associated economic consequences for marine coastal economies. Read More

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Predicting suitable distribution areas of in Qinghai Province under climate change scenarios.

Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao 2021 Jul;32(7):2514-2524

College of Forestry, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, China.

is important for water and soil conservation. It is one of the native tree species suitable for afforestation and greening in high-cold and arid areas of Qinghai Province. Predicting the potential geographic distribution of in Qinghai Province under the climate change scenario will provide theoretical guidance for its management, introduction, and cultivation. Read More

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Impact of off-bottom seaweed cultivation on turbulent variation in the hydrodynamic environment: A flume experiment study with mimic and natural Saccharina latissima thalli.

Sci Total Environ 2021 Nov 14;797:149048. Epub 2021 Jul 14.

Department of Estuarine and Delta Systems, NIOZ Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, P.O. Box 140, 4400 AC Yerseke, the Netherlands. Electronic address:

The seaweed industry is growing worldwide to meet future resource needs in terms of food and fuel. In the meantime, the impact of expanding off-bottom seaweed cultivation on its environment is unclear. For example, it remains poorly understood how off-bottom seaweeds affect the local hydrodynamic environment, especially concerning turbulence that is more important for nutrient transport and availability than the mean flow velocity. Read More

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November 2021

Restoration of marine ecosystems: Understanding possible futures for optimal outcomes.

Sci Total Environ 2021 Nov 2;796:148845. Epub 2021 Jul 2.

College of Arts, Society and Education, James Cook University, Queensland 4811, Australia.

Accelerating declines in the extent, quality and functioning of the world's marine ecosystems have generated an upsurge in focus on practical solutions, with ecosystem restoration becoming an increasingly attractive mitigation strategy for systems as diverse as coral reefs, mangroves and tidal flats. While restoration is popular because it promises positive outcomes and a return to something approaching unimpacted condition and functioning, it involves substantial public and private investment, both for the initial restoration activity and for on-going maintenance of the restored asset. This investment often affords one big chance to get things right before irretrievable damage is done. Read More

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November 2021

A hybrid computational framework for intelligent inter-continent SARS-CoV-2 sub-strains characterization and prediction.

Sci Rep 2021 07 15;11(1):14558. Epub 2021 Jul 15.

Department of Computer Science, University of Uyo, P.M.B. 1017, Uyo, 520003, Nigeria.

Whereas accelerated attention beclouded early stages of the coronavirus spread, knowledge of actual pathogenicity and origin of possible sub-strains remained unclear. By harvesting the Global initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) database ( https://www.gisaid. Read More

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The potential of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) in metabolomics and lipidomics of microalgae- a review.

Arch Biochem Biophys 2021 10 11;710:108987. Epub 2021 Jul 11.

Department of Environmental Monitoring and Forecasting, Ecological Faculty, RUDN University, Moscow, 117198, Russia.

Microalgae biotechnology has made it possible to derive secondary bioactive metabolites from microalgae strains that have opened up their entire potential to uncover a wide range of novel metabolic capabilities and turn these into bio-products for the development of sustainable bio-refineries. Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Technology (NMR) has been one of the most successful and functional research technology over the past two decades to analyse the composition, structure and functionality of distinct metabolites in the different microalgae strains. This technology offers qualitative as well as quantitative knowledge about the endogenous metabolites and lipids of low molecular mass to offer a good picture of the physiological state of biological samples in metabolomics and lipidomics studies. Read More

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October 2021

Differential effects of nitrogen vs. phosphorus limitation on terrestrial carbon storage in two subtropical forests: A Bayesian approach.

Sci Total Environ 2021 Nov 24;795:148485. Epub 2021 Jun 24.

Tiantong National Field Observation Station for Forest Ecosystem, Center for Global Change and Ecological Forecasting, School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China. Electronic address:

Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) have been demonstrated to limit terrestrial carbon (C) storage in terrestrial ecosystems. However, the reliable indicator to infer N and P limitation are still lacking, especially in subtropical forests. Here we used a terrestrial ecosystem (TECO) model framework in combination with a Bayesian approach to evaluate effects of nutrient limitation from added N/P processes and data sets on C storage capacities in two subtropical forests (Tiantong and Qianyanzhou [QYZ]). Read More

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November 2021

Biochar Amendment Alters the Nutrient-Use Strategy of Moso Bamboo Under N Additions.

Front Plant Sci 2021 23;12:667964. Epub 2021 Jun 23.

State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Silviculture, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou, China.

Nutrient resorption can affect plant growth, litter decomposition, and nutrient cycling. Although the effects of nitrogen (N) and biochar fertilizers on soil nutrient concentrations and plant nutrient uptake have been studied, an understanding of how combined applications of N and biochar affect plant nutrient resorption in plantations is lacking. In this study, we applied N (0, 30, 60, and 90 kg N ha yr defined as N0, N30, N60, and N90, respectively) and biochar (0, 20, and 40 t biochar ha defined as BC0, BC20, and BC40, respectively) to the soil of a Moso bamboo plantation. Read More

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Ecosystem services provision by Mediterranean forests will be compromised above 2℃ warming.

Glob Chang Biol 2021 Sep 6;27(18):4210-4222. Epub 2021 Jul 6.

Department of Agriculture and Forest Engineering (EAGROF), University of Lleida, Lleida, Catalonia, Spain.

Forests provide a wide range of provisioning, regulating and cultural services of great value to societies across the Mediterranean basin. In this study, we reviewed the scientific literature of the last 30 years to quantify the magnitude of projected changes in ecosystem services provision by Mediterranean forests under IPCC climate change scenarios. We classified the scenarios according to the temperature threshold of 2℃ set by the Paris Agreement (below or above). Read More

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September 2021

Effects of stochasticity on the length and behaviour of ecological transients.

J R Soc Interface 2021 07 7;18(180):20210257. Epub 2021 Jul 7.

Department of Mathematics, Bowdoin College, Brunswick, ME 04011, USA.

There is a growing recognition that ecological systems can spend extended periods of time far away from an asymptotic state, and that ecological understanding will therefore require a deeper appreciation for how long ecological transients arise. Recent work has defined classes of deterministic mechanisms that can lead to long transients. Given the ubiquity of stochasticity in ecological systems, a similar systematic treatment of transients that includes the influence of stochasticity is important. Read More

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Green-Blue Spaces and Population Density versus COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in Poland.

Int J Environ Res Public Health 2021 Jun 20;18(12). Epub 2021 Jun 20.

Department of Environmental Research and Geo-Information, Institute of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Jan Kochanowski University in Kielce, Uniwersytecka 7, 25-406 Kielce, Poland.

In the last year, in connection with the COVID-19 pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, scientific papers have appeared in which the authors are trying to identify factors (including environmental) favoring the spread of this disease. This paper presents the spatial differentiation in the total number of COVID-19 cases and deaths during the full year (March 2020-March 2021) of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Poland versus green-blue spaces (green-i.a. Read More

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Understanding norovirus reporting patterns in England: a mixed model approach.

BMC Public Health 2021 06 28;21(1):1245. Epub 2021 Jun 28.

Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.

Background: Norovirus has a higher level of under-reporting in England compared to other intestinal infectious agents such as Campylobacter or Salmonella, despite being recognised as the most common cause of gastroenteritis globally. In England, this under-reporting is a consequence of the frequently mild/self-limiting nature of the disease, combined with the passive surveillance system for infectious diseases reporting. We investigated heterogeneity in passive surveillance system in order to improve understanding of differences in reporting and laboratory testing practices of norovirus in England. Read More

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An integrated assessment system for the carrying capacity of the water environment based on system dynamics.

J Environ Manage 2021 Oct 24;295:113045. Epub 2021 Jun 24.

Key Laboratory for City Cluster Environmental Safety and Green Development of the Ministry of Education, Institute of Environmental and Ecological Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, Guangdong, 510006, PR China.

Implementing an integrated assessment system for the carrying capacity of water environments should include recognizing and eliminating warning signs based on future predictions. However, existing methodologies tend to ignore the warning methods already in place, and current studies fail to quantify water ecology issues adequately. To help solve these problems, the ecological footprint that involves water uses a procedural indicator system, which adopts an early warning methodology system approach. Read More

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October 2021

Is the current Mediterranean network of marine protected areas resilient to climate change?

Sci Total Environ 2021 Oct 9;792:148397. Epub 2021 Jun 9.

Department of Ecology, School of Biology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece.

Rising ocean temperature impacts the functionality and structure of ecosystems, further triggering the redistribution of biodiversity. Still, the magnitude and anticipated impacts of ocean warming are not expected to be uniform across marine space. Here, we developed a two-fold index-based approach to provide an integrated climatic vulnerability assessment of the marine surfaces which are enclosed within protected areas in the Mediterranean Sea. Read More

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October 2021

Soil aeration rather than methanotrophic community drives methane uptake under drought in a subtropical forest.

Sci Total Environ 2021 Oct 5;792:148292. Epub 2021 Jun 5.

School of Life Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yuquan Road, Beijing 100049, China.

Little information is available about the effects of drought on soil methane (CH) uptake and the underlying feedback of the soil microbial community in forest biomes. More importantly, a meta-analysis of the current literature on this topic revealed that there are virtually no data available in subtropical forests. To fill the abovementioned knowledge gap, we carried out a 3-year investigation of in situ CH efflux under drought in a subtropical forest, and found that drought significantly increased soil CH uptake (P < 0. Read More

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October 2021

Modelling of chemical species of Al, Mn, Zn, and Pb in river body waters of industrial areas of West Rhodope Mountain, Bulgaria.

Environ Monit Assess 2021 Jun 21;193(7):430. Epub 2021 Jun 21.

Department of Chemistry, Laboratory of Environmental Chemistry, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, 15784, Panepistimiopolis, Athens, Greece.

The assessment of the ecological status of natural surface water, in terms of dominant trace metals, within an area subject to various sources of pollution including a non-ferrous metal ore mining, such as the West Rhodope Mountain, Bulgaria, is significant. The present study estimates the ecological status of river body waters at industrial areas of the West Rhodope Mountain, Bulgaria, simultaneously evaluating the possibility of state forecasting, together with assessing the potential risks, through the study of scenarios focusing on (i) possible variations of physicochemical parameters such as pH, concentration levels of trace metals, sulphates, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) of surface water and (ii) consideration of potential spontaneous precipitation reactions in the studied waters. The ecological status of river body waters was assessed through a combination of experimental field, laboratory, and computational techniques. Read More

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