7,577 results match your criteria ecological forecasting

Seeds as natural capital.

Trends Plant Sci 2021 Sep 20. Epub 2021 Sep 20.

Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Wakehurst, Ardingly, Haywards Heath, West Sussex, RH17 6TN, UK; Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming, Yunnan 650201, PR China. Electronic address:

Halting and reversing the current loss of biodiversity and habitats will be facilitated by a comprehensive valuation of all nature's contributions to people (NCPs), on which we rely. In this context, we explore the full natural capital value of seeds to reveal how this extends far beyond their economic value associated with mainstream agriculture and forestry. Seeds represent the main assets for nature-based solutions at species (i. Read More

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September 2021

Re-emergence of syphilis in women of reproductive age and its association with the increase in congenital syphilis in Mexico during 2010-2019: an ecological study.

BMC Infect Dis 2021 Sep 23;21(1):992. Epub 2021 Sep 23.

Centro de Investigación sobre Enfermedades Infecciosas, Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Cerrada Los Pinos y Caminera, Cuernavaca, Universidad No. 655 Colonia Santa María Ahuacatitlán, Morelos, México.

Background: Syphilis is a sexually transmitted infection that is re-emerging in different parts of the world. This infection can be transmitted during pregnancy, causing neonatal syphilis. The objective of this study was to examine trend in syphilis, congenital syphilis, and neonatal deaths among the Mexican population during 2010-2019. Read More

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September 2021

Unexpected slowdown in the decline of tuberculosis mortality rates in Brazil from 1997 to 2017: an ecological study.

Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 2021 Sep 21. Epub 2021 Sep 21.

Collective Health Post-Graduation Program, University of Brasília, Brasília-DF, Brazil.

Background: Brazil is a signatory to the World Health Organization End TB Strategy and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. This study aims to characterize tuberculosis (TB) deaths and TB mortality rates in Brazil for the period 1997-2017.

Methods: We performed an ecological study based on information for TB deaths between 1997 and 2017 extracted from the Mortality Information System of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. Read More

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September 2021

Incidence and Mortality Trends of Acute Gastroenteritis and Pneumococcal Disease in Children Following Universal Rotavirus and Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccination in Ecuador.

Infect Dis Ther 2021 Sep 21. Epub 2021 Sep 21.

Admirhserv, Quito, Ecuador.

Introduction: Ecuador introduced routine infant rotavirus (RV) vaccination in 2008 and pneumococcal conjugate vaccination (PCV) in 2011 to manage disease and mortality in children caused by gastroenteritis (GE) and by pneumonia (PNE) and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), respectively.

Methods: This retrospective ecological database study described vaccination coverage as well as the trends in incidence and mortality in the pre- versus post-vaccination periods and used time-trend analysis models to assess the impact of vaccination.

Results: RV vaccination coverage of the second dose was between 79-97% from 2008 to 2016. Read More

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September 2021

The ecology of zoonotic parasites in the Carnivora.

Trends Parasitol 2021 Sep 17. Epub 2021 Sep 17.

Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia 140 E. Green Street Athens, GA 30602, USA; Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia 203 D.W. Brooks Drive Athens, GA 30602, USA.

The order Carnivora includes over 300 species that vary many orders of magnitude in size and inhabit all major biomes, from tropical rainforests to polar seas. The high diversity of carnivore parasites represents a source of potential emerging diseases of humans. Zoonotic risk from this group may be driven in part by exceptionally high functional diversity of host species in behavioral, physiological, and ecological traits. Read More

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September 2021

Causal assumptions and causal inference in ecological experiments.

Trends Ecol Evol 2021 Sep 15. Epub 2021 Sep 15.

Carey Business School, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA; Department of Environmental Health and Engineering, a joint department of the Bloomberg School of Public Health and the Whiting School of Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA. Electronic address:

Causal inferences from experimental data are often justified based on treatment randomization. However, inferring causality from data also requires complementary causal assumptions, which have been formalized by scholars of causality but not widely discussed in ecology. While ecologists have recognized challenges to inferring causal relationships in experiments and developed solutions, they lack a general framework to identify and address them. Read More

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September 2021

A roadmap towards predicting species interaction networks (across space and time).

Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2021 Nov 20;376(1837):20210063. Epub 2021 Sep 20.

Sciences Biologiques, Université de Montréal, Montréal, Canada H2V 0B3.

Networks of species interactions underpin numerous ecosystem processes, but comprehensively sampling these interactions is difficult. Interactions intrinsically vary across space and time, and given the number of species that compose ecological communities, it can be tough to distinguish between a true negative (where two species never interact) from a false negative (where two species have not been observed interacting even though they actually do). Assessing the likelihood of interactions between species is an imperative for several fields of ecology. Read More

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November 2021

Anthropogenic land‒use impacts on the size structure of macroinvertebrate assemblages are jointly modulated by local conditions and spatial processes.

Environ Res 2021 Sep 16;204(Pt B):112055. Epub 2021 Sep 16.

Freshwater Centre, Finnish Environment Institute, PO Box 413, FI‒90014, Oulu, Finland. Electronic address:

Body size descriptors and associated resemblance measurements may provide useful tools for forecasting ecological responses to increasing anthropogenic land‒use disturbances. Yet, the influences of agriculture and urbanisation on the size structure of biotic assemblages have seldom been investigated in running waters. Using a comprehensive dataset on stream macroinvertebrates from 21 river basins across Western Finland, we assessed whether the structure of assemblages via changes in taxonomic composition and body size distributions responded predictably to anthropogenic land‒use impacts. Read More

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September 2021

Current contrasting population trends among North American hummingbirds.

Sci Rep 2021 Sep 15;11(1):18369. Epub 2021 Sep 15.

Environment and Climate Change Canada, Wildlife Research Division, National Wildlife Research Centre, 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa, ON, K1S 5B6, Canada.

As pollinators, hummingbirds play a critical role for both the function of ecological communities and in providing ecosystem services for people. To examine the conservation status of North American hummingbirds, we analyzed Breeding Bird Survey data for 8 species and 3 genera from 1970 to 2019 (long-term) and from 2009 to 2019 (short-term, approximately three generations). Among the Selasphorus genus, Allen's, rufous, and broad-tailed hummingbirds have declined since 1970, and the rate of decline increased from 2009 to 2019. Read More

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September 2021

Is water quality better in wet years or dry years in river-connected lakes? A case study from Dongting Lake, China.

Environ Pollut 2021 Sep 4;290:118115. Epub 2021 Sep 4.

Key Laboratory of Agro-Ecological Processes in Subtropical Region, Institute of Subtropical Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changsha, 410125, Hunan, China; Dongting Lake Station for Wetland Ecosystem Research, Institute of Subtropical Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changsha, 410125, Hunan, China.

Water quality is essential for lake systems, which are not only influenced by climate change and human activities but are also controlled by high-frequency hydrological rhythms. However, the differences in water quality during different hydrological periods have not been addressed in detail. Here, a 15-year water quality dataset (2004-2018) was selected to explore the variation trends and their relationship with water level in different hydrological periods in Dongting Lake, a typical river-connected lake in China. Read More

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September 2021

Assessment of trends in climatic extremes from observational data in the Kashmir basin, NW Himalaya.

Environ Monit Assess 2021 Sep 14;193(10):649. Epub 2021 Sep 14.

Department of Geology, School Education Department, Government of Jammu and Kashmir, Srinagar, 190002, India.

The present study aims to assess the recent changes and trends in the extreme climate indices in the Kashmir basin using the observational records from 1980 to 2016. The extreme climate indices were computed using the ClimPACT2 software and a total of 39 indices were selected for the analysis having particular utility to various sectors like agriculture, water resources, energy consumption, and human health. Besides adopting the station scale analysis, regional averages were computed for each index. Read More

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September 2021

Regional heterogeneity in coral species richness and hue reveals novel global predictors of reef fish intra-family diversity.

Sci Rep 2021 Sep 14;11(1):18275. Epub 2021 Sep 14.

Department of Biology, University of Victoria, Cunningham 202, 3800 Finnerty Road, Victoria, BC, V8P 5C2, Canada.

Habitat heterogeneity shapes biological communities, a well-known process in terrestrial ecosystems but substantially unresolved within coral reef ecosystems. We investigated the extent to which coral richness predicts intra-family fish richness, while simultaneously integrating a striking aspect of reef ecosystems-coral hue. To do so, we quantified the coral richness, coral hue diversity, and species richness within 25 fish families in 74 global ecoregions. Read More

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September 2021

The next pandemic: impact of COVID-19 in mental healthcare assistance in a nationwide epidemiological study.

Lancet Reg Health Am 2021 Sep 3:100061. Epub 2021 Sep 3.

Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre, Center for Drug and Alcohol Research, Ramiro Barcelos Street, 2350, Santa Cecilia, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil.

Background: Studies have reported the worsening of psychiatric symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, few studies have evaluated the impact on the access to mental health services during COVID-19. Our aim was to analyze temporal trends and prediction of appointments held in Brazil's public health system, to compare the observed and expected number of mental healthcare appointments during the COVID-19 pandemics. Read More

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September 2021

Drivers of harmful algal blooms in coastal areas of Eastern Mediterranean: a machine learning methodological approach.

Math Biosci Eng 2021 07;18(5):6484-6505

Department of Marine Sciences, Faculty of Environment, University of the Aegean, University Hill, GR81100, Mytilene, Greece.

Harmful algal species are present in the Mediterranean Sea and are often associated with toxic events affecting the nearby coastal zones. The presence of 18 marine microalgae, at genus level, associated with potentially harmful characteristics was predicted using a number of machine learning techniques based exclusively on a small set of abiotic variables, already identified as drivers of blooms. Random Forest (RF) algorithm achieved the best predictive performance by correctly identifying the presence of most genera with a mean of 89. Read More

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Smart allocation of restoration funds over space and time.

Ecol Appl 2021 Sep 12:e02448. Epub 2021 Sep 12.

Institute for Future Environments, Queensland University of Technology, Garden's Point, Queensland, 4000, Australia.

A challenge for natural area managers is to ensure that public expenditure on land restoration is cost-effective, efficient and transparent but this is difficult to achieve in practice, especially when there are many possible projects across multiple years. Here we develop a 'roadmap' for investment in land restoration. It explicitly considers space, time and their interaction, in relation to ecological outcomes and restoration costs (and their variation in time and space). Read More

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September 2021

Shape-shifting: changing animal morphologies as a response to climatic warming.

Trends Ecol Evol 2021 Aug 19. Epub 2021 Aug 19.

Centre for Integrative Ecology, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Burwood, Victoria 3125, Australia.

Many animal appendages, such as avian beaks and mammalian ears, can be used to dissipate excess body heat. Allen's rule, wherein animals in warmer climates have larger appendages to facilitate more efficient heat exchange, reflects this. We find that there is widespread evidence of 'shape-shifting' (changes in appendage size) in endotherms in response to climate change and its associated climatic warming. Read More

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Comparing the reliability of relative bird abundance indices from standardized surveys and community science data at finer resolutions.

PLoS One 2021 10;16(9):e0257226. Epub 2021 Sep 10.

Alexander Center for Applied Population Biology, Lincoln Park Zoo, Chicago, Illinois, United States of America.

Biodiversity loss is a global ecological crisis that is both a driver of and response to environmental change. Understanding the connections between species declines and other components of human-natural systems extends across the physical, life, and social sciences. From an analysis perspective, this requires integration of data from different scientific domains, which often have heterogeneous scales and resolutions. Read More

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September 2021

Integrating thermal infrared stream temperature imagery and spatial stream network models to understand natural spatial thermal variability in streams.

J Therm Biol 2021 Aug 12;100:103028. Epub 2021 Jun 12.

Supervisory Research Landscape Ecologist at the U.S. Geological Survey, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Cascadia Field Station; University of Washington School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, Box 352100 Seattle, WA 98195, USA.

Under a warmer future climate, thermal refuges could facilitate the persistence of species relying on cold-water habitat. Often these refuges are small and easily missed or smoothed out by averaging in models. Thermal infrared (TIR) imagery can provide empirical water surface temperatures that capture these features at a high spatial resolution (<1 m) and over tens of kilometers. Read More

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Temporal Control of Seed Development in Dicots: Molecular Bases, Ecological Impact and Possible Evolutionary Ramifications.

Int J Mol Sci 2021 Aug 26;22(17). Epub 2021 Aug 26.

Laboratory for Proteomics of Supra-Organismal Systems, All-Russia Research Institute for Agricultural Microbiology (ARRIAM), 196608 St. Petersburg, Russia.

In flowering plants, seeds serve as organs of both propagation and dispersal. The developing seed passes through several consecutive stages, following a conserved general outline. The overall time needed for a seed to develop, however, may vary both within and between plant species, and these temporal developmental properties remain poorly understood. Read More

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Long-Term Assessment of Surface Water Quality in a Highly Managed Estuary Basin.

Int J Environ Res Public Health 2021 Sep 6;18(17). Epub 2021 Sep 6.

Department of Earth and Environment, Florida International University, Miami, FL 33199, USA.

Anthropogenic developments in coastal watersheds cause significant ecological changes to estuaries. Since estuaries respond to inputs on relatively long time scales, robust analyses of long-term data should be employed to account for seasonality, internal cycling, and climatological cycles. This study characterizes the water quality of a highly managed coastal basin, the St. Read More

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September 2021

Short Term Real-Time Rolling Forecast of Urban River Water Levels Based on LSTM: A Case Study in Fuzhou City, China.

Int J Environ Res Public Health 2021 Sep 2;18(17). Epub 2021 Sep 2.

School of Civil Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410075, China.

Water level management is an important part of urban water system management. In flood season, the river should be controlled to ensure the ecological and landscape water level. In non-flood season, the water level should be lowered to ensure smooth drainage. Read More

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September 2021

Anthropogenic climate change has altered lake state in the Sierra Nevada (California, USA).

Glob Chang Biol 2021 Sep 8. Epub 2021 Sep 8.

Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Kentucky, Lexington, Kentucky, USA.

Climatic changes threaten freshwater resources and aquatic ecosystem health in the Sierra Nevada (California, USA), which has important consequences for millions of people and the world's fifth largest economy. However, the timing and magnitude of ecological changes driven by hydroclimate oscillations remain poorly understood in California's headwater region. Here, we develop a precisely dated, annually to decadally resolved lake sediment record of ecological change from the eastern Sierra Nevada that spans the last three millennia. Read More

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September 2021

[A review of research on the urban thermal environment effects of green quantity].

Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao 2020 Aug;31(8):2804-2816

School of Architecture and Design, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, Jiangsu, China.

The regulative function of green quantity in urban thermal environment is an important topic in urban studies. Here, we reviewed the concepts and developments of green quantity, the measurements of green quantity and urban thermal environment, the relevance between green quantity and urban thermal environment, and its implications for urban planning. After summarizing domestic and international research processes, we put forward four prospective directions: 1) improving the methods for three-dimensional investigation of green quantity, 2) developing means for urban thermal environment monitoring and forecasting, 3) establishing an index system for three-dimensional pattern of urban green quantity, and 4) creating three-dimensional analytical methods to quantify the relationship between green quantity and urban thermal environment. Read More

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Characterizing the Semi-Volatile Organic Compounds in Runoff from Roads and Other Impervious Surfaces in a Suburban Area of Beijing.

Arch Environ Contam Toxicol 2021 Sep 6. Epub 2021 Sep 6.

Beijing Engineering Research Center of Sustainable Urban Sewage System Construction and Risk Control, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing, 100044, China.

Stormwater runoff samples were collected from five different land use sites (gas station, city road, campus, park, and residential) in a precipitation event on May 22nd, 2017, from a small suburban area (5 km × 2 km) of the city of Beijing, China. There were 72 types of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) found in these runoff samples, including 33 types of monocyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (MAHs), 22 types of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), 6 types of phthalate esters (PAEs), 9 types of pesticides and 2 types of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Especially, 26 types of SVOCs (7 MAHs, 9 PAHs, 5 PAEs, and 5 pesticides) were detected in all water samples. Read More

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September 2021

Why More Leaflets? The Role of Natural Selection in Shaping the Spatial Pattern of Leaf-Shape Variation in (Fabaceae) and Two Close Relatives.

Front Plant Sci 2021 19;12:681962. Epub 2021 Aug 19.

College of Life Sciences, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, China.

Leaf shape exhibits tremendous diversity in angiosperms. It has long been argued that leaf shape can affect major physiological and ecological properties of plants and thus is likely to be adaptive, but the evolutionary evidence is still scarce. (Fabaceae) is polymorphic for leaf shape (1 leaflet, 1-3 leaflets, and 3 leaflets) and exhibits clinal variation in steppes of Nei Mongol, China. Read More

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Bias assessments to expand research harnessing biological collections.

Trends Ecol Evol 2021 Sep 3. Epub 2021 Sep 3.

Department of Life Sciences, Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX 78412, USA. Electronic address:

Biological collections are arguably the most important resources for investigations into the impacts of human activities on biodiversity. However, the apparent opportunities presented by museum-derived datasets have not resulted in consistent or widespread use of specimens in ecology outside phenological research and species distribution modeling. We attribute this gap between opportunity and application to biases introduced by collectors, curators, and preservation practices and an imperfect understanding of these biases and how to mitigate them. Read More

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September 2021

Population dynamics and ranging behaviours of provisioned silvered langur (Trachypithecus cristatus) in Peninsular Malaysia.

Primates 2021 Sep 5. Epub 2021 Sep 5.

Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Biological Sciences and Biotechnology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia.

Tourists are attracted to the Bukit Melawati Kuala Selangor (BMKS) of Peninsular Malaysia, a small hill park, for both its status as a historical site and the free-ranging silvered langurs (Trachypithecus cristatus) that come for provisioning. We assessed the population trends and group sizes of T. cristatus over 10 years in the BMKS and examined their ranging patterns. Read More

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September 2021

Transformation of coffee-growing landscapes across Latin America. A review.

Agron Sustain Dev 2021 31;41(5):62. Epub 2021 Aug 31.

Farming Systems Ecology Group, Wageningen University & Research, P.O. Box 430, 6700 AK Wageningen, The Netherlands.

In Latin America, the cultivation of Arabica coffee () plays a critical role in rural livelihoods, biodiversity conservation, and sustainable development. Over the last 20 years, coffee farms and landscapes across the region have undergone rapid and profound biophysical changes in response to low coffee prices, changing climatic conditions, severe plant pathogen outbreaks, and other drivers. Although these biophysical transformations are pervasive and affect millions of rural livelihoods, there is limited information on the types, location, and extent of landscape changes and their socioeconomic and ecological consequences. Read More

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Can whale-fall studies inform human forensics?

Sci Justice 2021 Sep 5;61(5):459-466. Epub 2021 Jun 5.

Centre for Forensic Research, School of Criminology, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Dr., Burnaby, British Columbia V5A 1S6, Canada. Electronic address:

Experimental knowledge of human body decomposition in the deep ocean is very limited, partly due to the logistical challenges of deep-sea research. The literature on ecological responses to the arrival of naturally sunk and implanted whale carcasses on the seafloor represents a potential source of information relevant to questions of human body survival and recovery in the deep ocean. Whale falls trigger the formation of complex, localized, and dense biological communities that have become a point of interest for marine biologists for the past 2-3 decades. Read More

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September 2021

Acute Gastroenteritis Morbidity and Mortality Trends Following Universal Rotavirus Vaccination in Children in Peru: Ecological Database Study with Time-Trend Analysis.

Infect Dis Ther 2021 Sep 5. Epub 2021 Sep 5.

Instituto de Medicina Tropical Alexander von Humboldt, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia (UPCH), Lima, Peru.

Introduction: Rotavirus (RV) infection is the leading cause of severe diarrhea in children worldwide. It is responsible for around 25% of gastroenteritis (GE) cases, 33% of hospitalized GE cases, and an annual mortality rate of 113.4/100,000 in children < 5 years of age in Peru. Read More

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September 2021