Am J Public Health 2021 Apr 15:e1-e10. Epub 2021 Apr 15.
Alexis Zebrowski and Brendan G. Carr are with the Department of Emergency Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY. Andrew Rundle, Tonguc Yaman, Wan Yang, James W. Quinn, and Charles C. Branas are with the Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York. Sen Pei and Jeffrey Shaman are with the Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University. Sarah Sims is with Patient Insight, Santa Monica, CA. Ronan Doorley is with Media Lab at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge. Neil Schluger is with the Division of Pulmonary, Allergy, and Critical Care Medicine, and Departments of Epidemiology and Environmental Health Sciences, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, Columbia University.
To create a tool to rapidly determine where pandemic demand for critical care overwhelms county-level surge capacity and to compare public health and medical responses. In March 2020, COVID-19 cases requiring critical care were estimated using an adaptive metapopulation SEIR (susceptible‒exposed‒infectious‒recovered) model for all 3142 US counties for future 21-day and 42-day periods from April 2, 2020, to May 13, 2020, in 4 reactive patterns of contact reduction-0%, 20%, 30%, and 40%-and 4 surge response scenarios-very low, low, medium, and high. In areas with increased demand, surge response measures could avert 104 120 additional deaths-55% through high clearance of critical care beds and 45% through measures such as greater ventilator access. Read More