Conserv Biol 2021 Jun 15. Epub 2021 Jun 15.
Environmental Science Center, Qatar University, Doha, P.O. Box 2713, Qatar.
There is increasing interest in broad-scale analysis, modeling, and prediction of the distribution and composition of plant species assemblages under climatic, environmental, and biotic filtering, particularly for conservation purposes. We devised a method (broad-scale analysis & modeling of plant assemblages under climatic-biotic-environmental co-filtering, BAM-PACC) for reliably predicting the impact of climate change on arbitrarily large assemblages of plant communities, while also considering competing biotic and abiotic factors. When applied to a large set of plant communities in the Swiss Alps, BAM-PACC explained presences/absences of 175 plant species in 608 plots with >87% cross-validated accuracy, predicted decreases in α, β, and γ diversity by 2040 under both moderate and extreme climate scenarios, and identified plant species likely to be favored/disfavored by climate change. Read More