Cancer 2006 Mar;106(6):1372-81
Department of Neurosurgery, Grosshadern Clinic, Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Marchioninistrasse 15, 81377 Munich, Germany.
Background: Detailed long-term outcome data are not available for adult patients with World Health Organization (WHO) Grade 2 astrocytoma or oligoastrocytoma.
Methods: A previously published short-term data set of 239 adult patients with circumscribed de novo supratentorial astrocytoma (187 patients) and oligoastrocytoma (52 patients) treated with interstitial iodine-125 ((125)I) radiosurgery as primary treatment (1979-1992) was revisited. Survival, progression-free survival, functionally independent survival, postrecurrence survival, and time to malignant transformation were estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method. Prognostic factors were obtained from the Cox multivariate proportional hazards model.
Results: Five-, 10-, and 15-year survival was 56%, 37%, and 26%, respectively (median follow-up, 10.3 yrs). Progression-free survival was 45%, 21%, and 14%, respectively. The corresponding malignant transformation rates were 33%, 54%, and 67%. No leveling off of the Kaplan-Meier curves could be observed for any of the chosen endpoints. Age > 50 years, a tumor volume > 20 mL, and/or a Karnofsky score < or = 80 were associated with decreased survival or progression-free survival. Age > 35 years and/or a tumor volume > 20 mL increased risk of malignant transformation. Prognostic factors determined subsets of patients with 10-year survival ranging from as low as 6% to as high as 55% and progression-free survival ranging 1-31%.
Conclusions: Long-term tumor stabilization is rare. As outcome is mainly determined by treatment-independent factors, minimization of any treatment-related risk must be considered essential.