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Perspectives on advancing consumer product exposure models.

Authors:
Christina Cowan-Ellsberry Rosemary T Zaleski Hua Qian William Greggs Elke Jensen

J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol 2020 09 16;30(5):856-865. Epub 2020 Jun 16.

Dow Chemical Co., Midland, MI, USA.

Predictive models are used to estimate exposures from consumer products to support risk management decision-making. These model predictions may be used alone in the absence of measured data or integrated with available exposure data. When different models are used, the resulting estimates of exposure and conclusions of risk may be disparate and the origin of these differences may not be obvious. This Perspectives Paper provides recommendations that could promote more systematic evaluation and a wider range of applicability of consumer product exposure models and their predictions, improve confidence in model predictions, and result in more accurate communication of consumer exposure model estimates. Key insights for the exposure science community to consider include: consistency in product descriptions, exposure routes, and scenarios; consistent and explicit definitions of exposure metrics; situation-dependent benefits from using one or multiple models; distinguishing between model algorithms and exposure factors; and corroboration of model predictions with measured data.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41370-020-0237-zDOI Listing
September 2020

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Physiol Meas 2021 Feb 26. Epub 2021 Feb 26.

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J Phys Condens Matter 2021 Feb 26. Epub 2021 Feb 26.

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Department of Engineering Physics, Air Force Institute of Technology, WPAFB, OH 45433, USA. Electronic address:

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Neurosci Biobehav Rev 2021 Feb 23. Epub 2021 Feb 23.

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A multitude of prediction models for a first psychotic episode in individuals at clinical high-risk (CHR) for psychosis have been proposed, but only rarely validated. We identified transition models based on clinical and neuropsychological data through a registered systematic literature search and evaluated their external validity in 173 CHRs from the Personalised Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management (PRONIA) study. Discrimination performance was assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and compared to the prediction of clinical raters. Read More

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Ecol Appl 2021 Feb 26:e2316. Epub 2021 Feb 26.

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• Modelling wildfire activity is crucial for informing science-based risk management and understanding the spatio-temporal dynamics of fire-prone ecosystems worldwide. Models help disentangle the relative influences of different factors, understand wildfire predictability and provide insights into specific events. Here, we develop Firelihood, a two-component Bayesian hierarchically structured probabilistic model of daily fire activity, which is modelled as the outcome of a marked point process: individual fires are the points (occurrence component), and fire sizes are the marks (size component). Read More

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