Using Monte Carlo simulation to assess variability and uncertainty of tobacco consumption in a city by sewage epidemiology.

BMJ Open 2016 Feb 17;6(2):e010583. Epub 2016 Feb 17.

State Key Laboratory of Urban Water Resource and Environment, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, China.

Objective: To use Monte Carlo simulation to assess the uncertainty and variability of tobacco consumption through wastewater analysis in a city.

Methods: A total of 11 wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) (serving 2.2 million people; approximately 83% of urban population in Dalian) were selected and sampled. By detection and quantification of principal metabolites of nicotine, cotinine (COT) and trans-3'-hydroxycotinine (OH-COT), in raw wastewater, back calculation of tobacco use in the population of WWTPs can be realised.

Results: COT and OH-COT were detected in the entire set of samples with an average concentration of 2.33 ± 0.30 and 2.76 ± 0.91 µg/L, respectively. The mass load of absorbed NIC during the sampling period ranged from 0.25 to 4.22 mg/day/capita with an average of 1.92 mg/day/capita. Using these data, we estimated that smokers in the sampling area consumed an average of 14.6 cigarettes per day for active smoker. Uncertainty and variability analysis by Monte Carlo simulation were used to refine this estimate: the procedure concluded that smokers in Dalian smoked between 10 and 27 cigarettes per day. This estimate showed good agreement with estimates from epidemiological research.

Conclusions: Sewage-based epidemiology may be a useful additional tool for the large-scale monitoring of patterns of tobacco use. Probabilistic methods can be used to strengthen the reliability of estimated use generated from wastewater analysis.

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2015-010583DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4762092PMC
February 2016
5 Reads

Publication Analysis

Top Keywords

carlo simulation
12
monte carlo
12
wastewater analysis
8
uncertainty variability
8
tobacco consumption
8
cigarettes day
8
simulation assess
8
estimates epidemiological
4
concentration 233
4
average concentration
4
estimate good
4
set samples
4
samples average
4
233 030
4
mass load
4
276 091
4
091 µg/l
4
epidemiological researchconclusions
4
agreement estimates
4
µg/l mass
4

Similar Publications