Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

Authors:
Dr Adnan M Durrani, MD
Dr Adnan M Durrani, MD
National Institutes of Health
Bethesda | United States
Dr. Luke Nyakarahuka, DVM, MPH, PhD
Dr. Luke Nyakarahuka, DVM, MPH, PhD
Makerere University
Lecturer
Epidemiology
Kampala, Uganda | Uganda
Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad
Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad
University of Salahaddin
Corine Karema, MD, MSc
Corine Karema, MD, MSc
Quality and Equity Health care
Independent Malaria, Infectious diseases, HSS and Global Health consultant and Senior technical advisor
Malaria & infectious diseases- Neglected Tropical Diseases, Malaria control and Elimination, Global Health
Kigali, Kigali City | Rwanda
Deena Alasfoor
Deena Alasfoor
Ministry of Health
Oman
Dr Muhammad Imran Nisar, MBBS MSc
Dr Muhammad Imran Nisar, MBBS MSc
Aga Khan University
Senior Instructor
Maternal and Child Health , Vaccination, Epidemiology and Biostatistics
Karachi, Sindh | Pakistan
Mr. Gokalp Kadri Yentur
Mr. Gokalp Kadri Yentur
Applied Statistics, Biostatistics
Ankara | Turkey
Kyle R Heuton
Kyle R Heuton
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
United States
Dr.  Berrak Bora Basara, MD, PhD
Dr. Berrak Bora Basara, MD, PhD
Ministry of Health of Turkey
Head of Department of Health Statistics
Ankara | Turkey
Dr Ashish Bhalla, MD
Dr Ashish Bhalla, MD
Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research
Additional Professor
Internal Medicine, Toxicology
Chandigarh, UT | India
Dr. Lorenzo Monasta, DSc Epidemiology, MSc Health Sciences, MSc+BSc Statistics & Demography
Dr. Lorenzo Monasta, DSc Epidemiology, MSc Health Sciences, MSc+BSc Statistics & Demography
Institute for Maternal and Child Health -
Epidemiology and Biostatistics
Trieste, TS | Italy
Mr Tasara T Mazorodze, Masters in Psycholody By Research
Mr Tasara T Mazorodze, Masters in Psycholody By Research
Rhodes
MR
HIV/AIS in the workplace
Port elizabeth, Eastern Cape | Afghanistan
Chuanhua Yu, PhD
Chuanhua Yu, PhD
Wuhan University
Prof.
Wuhan, Hubei | China
Christopher J L Murray Katrina F Ortblad Caterina Guinovart Stephen S Lim Timothy M Wolock D Allen Roberts Emily A Dansereau Nicholas Graetz Ryan M Barber Jonathan C Brown Haidong Wang Herbert C Duber Mohsen Naghavi Daniel Dicker Lalit Dandona Joshua A Salomon Kyle Foreman David E Phillips Thomas D Fleming Abraham D Flaxman Bryan K Phillips Elizabeth K Johnson Megan S Coggeshall Foad Abd-Allah Semaw Ferede Abera Jerry P Abraham Ibrahim Abubakar Laith J Abu-Raddad Niveen Me Abu-Rmeileh Tom Achoki Austine Olufemi Adeyemo Arsène Kouablan Adou José C Adsuar Emilie Elisabet Agardh Dickens Akena Mazin J Al Kahbouri Mohammed I Albittar Gabriel Alcalá-Cerra Miguel Angel Alegretti Zewdie Aderaw Alemu Rafael Alfonso-Cristancho Samia Alhabib Raghib Ali Francois Alla Peter J Allen Ubai Alsharif Elena Alvarez Nelson Alvis-Guzman Adansi A Amankwaa Azmeraw T Amare Hassan Amini Walid Ammar Benjamin O Anderson Carl Abelardo T Antonio Palwasha Anwari Johan Arnlöv Valentina S Arsic Arsenijevic Ali Artaman Rana J Asghar Reza Assadi Lydia S Atkins Alaa Badawi Kalpana Balakrishnan Amitava Banerjee Sanjay Basu Justin Beardsley Tolesa Bekele Michelle L Bell Eduardo Bernabe Tariku Jibat Beyene Neeraj Bhala Zulfiqar A Bhutta Aref Bin Abdulhak Agnes Binagwaho Jed D Blore Dipan Bose Michael Brainin Nicholas Breitborde Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela Ferrán Catalá-López Vineet K Chadha Jung-Chen Chang Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang Ting-Wu Chuang Mercedes Colomar Leslie Trumbull Cooper Cyrus Cooper Karen J Courville Benjamin C Cowie Michael H Criqui Rakhi Dandona Anand Dayama Diego De Leo Louisa Degenhardt Borja Del Pozo-Cruz Kebede Deribe Don C Des Jarlais Muluken Dessalegn Samath D Dharmaratne Uğur Dilmen Eric L Ding Tim R Driscoll Richard G Ellenbogen Sergey Petrovich Ermakov Alireza Esteghamati Emerito Jose A Faraon Farshad Farzadfar Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad Daniel Obadare Fijabi Mohammad H Forouzanfar Urbano Fra Paleo Lynne Gaffikin Amiran Gamkrelidze Fortuné Gbètoho Gankpé Johanna M Geleijnse Bradford D Gessner Katherine B Gibney Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed Ginawi Elizabeth L Glaser Philimon Gona Atsushi Goto Hebe N Gouda Harish Chander Gugnani Rajeev Gupta Rahul Gupta Nima Hafezi-Nejad Randah Ribhi Hamadeh Mouhanad Hammami Graeme J Hankey Hilda L Harb Josep Maria Haro Rasmus Havmoeller Simon I Hay Mohammad T Hedayati Ileana B Heredia Pi Hans W Hoek John C Hornberger H Dean Hosgood Peter J Hotez Damian G Hoy John J Huang Kim M Iburg Bulat T Idrisov Kaire Innos Kathryn H Jacobsen Panniyammakal Jeemon Paul N Jensen Vivekanand Jha Guohong Jiang Jost B Jonas Knud Juel Haidong Kan Ida Kankindi Nadim E Karam André Karch Corine Kakizi Karema Anil Kaul Norito Kawakami Dhruv S Kazi Andrew H Kemp Andre Pascal Kengne Andre Keren Maia Kereselidze Yousef Saleh Khader Shams Eldin Ali Hassan Khalifa Ejaz Ahmed Khan Young-Ho Khang Irma Khonelidze Yohannes Kinfu Jonas M Kinge Luke Knibbs Yoshihiro Kokubo S Kosen Barthelemy Kuate Defo Veena S Kulkarni Chanda Kulkarni Kaushalendra Kumar Ravi B Kumar G Anil Kumar Gene F Kwan Taavi Lai Arjun Lakshmana Balaji Hilton Lam Qing Lan Van C Lansingh Heidi J Larson Anders Larsson Jong-Tae Lee James Leigh Mall Leinsalu Ricky Leung Yichong Li Yongmei Li Graça Maria Ferreira De Lima Hsien-Ho Lin Steven E Lipshultz Shiwei Liu Yang Liu Belinda K Lloyd Paulo A Lotufo Vasco Manuel Pedro Machado Jennifer H Maclachlan Carlos Magis-Rodriguez Marek Majdan Christopher Chabila Mapoma Wagner Marcenes Melvin Barrientos Marzan Joseph R Masci Mohammad Taufiq Mashal Amanda J Mason-Jones Bongani M Mayosi Abigail Cecilia Mckay Peter A Meaney Man Mohan Mehndiratta Fabiola Mejia-Rodriguez Yohannes Adama Melaku Ziad A Memish Walter Mendoza Ted R Miller Edward J Mills Ali H Mokdad Glen Liddell Mola Marcella Montico Ami R Moore Rintaro Mori Wilkister Nyaora Moturi Mitsuru Mukaigawara Kinnari S Murthy Aliya Naheed Kovin S Naidoo Luigi Naldi Vinay Nangia K M Venkat Narayan Denis Nash Chakib Nejjari Robert G Nelson Sudan Prasad Neupane Charles R Newton Marie Ng Sandra Nolte Ole F Norheim Vincent Nowaseb In-Hwan Oh Takayoshi Ohkubo Bolajoko O Olusanya Saad B Omer John Nelson Opio Orish Ebere Orisakwe Jeyaraj D Pandian Christina Papachristou Angel J Paternina Caicedo Scott B Patten Vinod K Paul Boris Igor Pavlin Neil Pearce David M Pereira Aslam Pervaiz Konrad Pesudovs Max Petzold Farshad Pourmalek Dima Qato Amado D Quezada D Alex Quistberg Anwar Rafay Kazem Rahimi Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar Sajjad Ur Rahman Murugesan Raju Saleem M Rana Homie Razavi Robert Quentin Reilly Giuseppe Remuzzi Jan Hendrik Richardus Luca Ronfani Nobhojit Roy Nsanzimana Sabin Mohammad Yahya Saeedi Mohammad Ali Sahraian Genesis May J Samonte Monika Sawhney Ione J C Schneider David C Schwebel Soraya Seedat Sadaf G Sepanlou Edson E Servan-Mori Sara Sheikhbahaei Kenji Shibuya Hwashin Hyun Shin Ivy Shiue Rupak Shivakoti Inga Dora Sigfusdottir Donald H Silberberg Andrea P Silva Edgar P Simard Jasvinder A Singh Vegard Skirbekk Karen Sliwa Samir Soneji Sergey S Soshnikov Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy Vasiliki Kalliopi Stathopoulou Konstantinos Stroumpoulis Soumya Swaminathan Bryan L Sykes Karen M Tabb Roberto Tchio Talongwa Eric Yeboah Tenkorang Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi Alan J Thomson Andrew L Thorne-Lyman Jeffrey A Towbin Jefferson Traebert Bach X Tran Zacharie Tsala Dimbuene Miltiadis Tsilimbaris Uche S Uchendu Kingsley N Ukwaja Selen Begüm Uzun Andrew J Vallely Tommi J Vasankari N Venketasubramanian Francesco S Violante Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov Stein Emil Vollset Stephen Waller Mitchell T Wallin Linhong Wang XiaoRong Wang Yanping Wang Scott Weichenthal Elisabete Weiderpass Robert G Weintraub Ronny Westerman Richard A White James D Wilkinson Thomas Neil Williams Solomon Meseret Woldeyohannes John Q Wong Gelin Xu Yang C Yang Yuichiro Yano Paul Yip Naohiro Yonemoto Seok-Jun Yoon Mustafa Younis Kim Yun Jin Maysaa El Sayed Zaki Yong Zhao Yingfeng Zheng Maigeng Zhou Jun Zhu Xiao Nong Zou Alan D Lopez Theo Vos

Lancet 2014 Sep 22;384(9947):1005-70. Epub 2014 Jul 22.

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA.

Background: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration.

Methods: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.

Findings: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.

Interpretation: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.

Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60844-8DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4202387PMC
September 2014
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264 Citations
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