Global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

Dr Adnan M Durrani, MD
Dr Adnan M Durrani, MD
National Institutes of Health
Bethesda | United States
Dr Muhammad Imran Nisar, MBBS MSc
Dr Muhammad Imran Nisar, MBBS MSc
Aga Khan University
Senior Instructor
Maternal and Child Health , Vaccination, Epidemiology and Biostatistics
Karachi, Sindh | Pakistan
Dr. Simon Barquera, MD, MS, PhD
Dr. Simon Barquera, MD, MS, PhD
National Institute of Public Health
Director, Nutrition Policy Research
Obesity, Diabetes, Health and Nutrition Policy, Public Health
Mexico, Mexico | Mexico
Mr Durrani A, FRCS(Plast)
Mr Durrani A, FRCS(Plast)
Addenbrooke's Hospital
Consultant Plastic Surgeon
Cambridge, Cambridgeshire | United Kingdom
Marie Ng Tom Fleming Margaret Robinson Blake Thomson Nicholas Graetz Christopher Margono Erin C Mullany Stan Biryukov Cristiana Abbafati Semaw Ferede Abera Jerry P Abraham Niveen M E Abu-Rmeileh Tom Achoki Fadia S AlBuhairan Zewdie A Alemu Rafael Alfonso Mohammed K Ali Raghib Ali Nelson Alvis Guzman Walid Ammar Palwasha Anwari Amitava Banerjee Sanjay Basu Derrick A Bennett Zulfiqar Bhutta Jed Blore Norberto Cabral Ismael Campos Nonato Jung-Chen Chang Rajiv Chowdhury Karen J Courville Michael H Criqui David K Cundiff Kaustubh C Dabhadkar Lalit Dandona Adrian Davis Anand Dayama Samath D Dharmaratne Eric L Ding Alireza Esteghamati Farshad Farzadfar Derek F J Fay Valery L Feigin Abraham Flaxman Mohammad H Forouzanfar Atsushi Goto Mark A Green Rajeev Gupta Nima Hafezi-Nejad Graeme J Hankey Heather C Harewood Rasmus Havmoeller Simon Hay Lucia Hernandez Abdullatif Husseini Bulat T Idrisov Nayu Ikeda Farhad Islami Eiman Jahangir Simerjot K Jassal Sun Ha Jee Mona Jeffreys Jost B Jonas Edmond K Kabagambe Shams Eldin Ali Hassan Khalifa Andre Pascal Kengne Yousef Saleh Khader Young-Ho Khang Daniel Kim Ruth W Kimokoti Jonas M Kinge Yoshihiro Kokubo Soewarta Kosen Gene Kwan Taavi Lai Mall Leinsalu Yichong Li Xiaofeng Liang Shiwei Liu Giancarlo Logroscino Paulo A Lotufo Yuan Lu Jixiang Ma Nana Kwaku Mainoo George A Mensah Tony R Merriman Ali H Mokdad Joanna Moschandreas Mohsen Naghavi Aliya Naheed Devina Nand K M Venkat Narayan Erica Leigh Nelson Marian L Neuhouser Takayoshi Ohkubo Samuel O Oti Dorairaj Prabhakaran Nobhojit Roy Uchechukwu Sampson Hyeyoung Seo Sadaf G Sepanlou Kenji Shibuya Rahman Shiri Ivy Shiue Gitanjali M Singh Jasvinder A Singh Vegard Skirbekk Nicolas J C Stapelberg Lela Sturua Bryan L Sykes Martin Tobias Bach X Tran Leonardo Trasande Hideaki Toyoshima Steven van de Vijver Tommi J Vasankari J Lennert Veerman Gustavo Velasquez-Melendez Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov Stein Emil Vollset Theo Vos Claire Wang XiaoRong Wang Elisabete Weiderpass Andrea Werdecker Jonathan L Wright Y Claire Yang Hiroshi Yatsuya Jihyun Yoon Seok-Jun Yoon Yong Zhao Maigeng Zhou Shankuan Zhu Alan D Lopez Christopher J L Murray Emmanuela Gakidou

Lancet 2014 Aug 29;384(9945):766-81. Epub 2014 May 29.

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA. Electronic address:

Background: In 2010, overweight and obesity were estimated to cause 3·4 million deaths, 3·9% of years of life lost, and 3·8% of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) worldwide. The rise in obesity has led to widespread calls for regular monitoring of changes in overweight and obesity prevalence in all populations. Comparable, up-to-date information about levels and trends is essential to quantify population health effects and to prompt decision makers to prioritise action. We estimate the global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980-2013.

Methods: We systematically identified surveys, reports, and published studies (n=1769) that included data for height and weight, both through physical measurements and self-reports. We used mixed effects linear regression to correct for bias in self-reports. We obtained data for prevalence of obesity and overweight by age, sex, country, and year (n=19,244) with a spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression model to estimate prevalence with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

Findings: Worldwide, the proportion of adults with a body-mass index (BMI) of 25 kg/m(2) or greater increased between 1980 and 2013 from 28·8% (95% UI 28·4-29·3) to 36·9% (36·3-37·4) in men, and from 29·8% (29·3-30·2) to 38·0% (37·5-38·5) in women. Prevalence has increased substantially in children and adolescents in developed countries; 23·8% (22·9-24·7) of boys and 22·6% (21·7-23·6) of girls were overweight or obese in 2013. The prevalence of overweight and obesity has also increased in children and adolescents in developing countries, from 8·1% (7·7-8·6) to 12·9% (12·3-13·5) in 2013 for boys and from 8·4% (8·1-8·8) to 13·4% (13·0-13·9) in girls. In adults, estimated prevalence of obesity exceeded 50% in men in Tonga and in women in Kuwait, Kiribati, Federated States of Micronesia, Libya, Qatar, Tonga, and Samoa. Since 2006, the increase in adult obesity in developed countries has slowed down.

Interpretation: Because of the established health risks and substantial increases in prevalence, obesity has become a major global health challenge. Not only is obesity increasing, but no national success stories have been reported in the past 33 years. Urgent global action and leadership is needed to help countries to more effectively intervene.

Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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