PLoS One 2014 13;9(5):e95654. Epub 2014 May 13.
Public Health Directorate, Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Setting: National Tuberculosis Program, Department of Public Health, Ministry of Health, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA).
Objective: To summarize data on the incidence of tuberculosis and associated risk factors for cases reported during 2010-2011.
Design: Retrospective analysis of routinely collected data through an established national disease notification system of the Ministry of Health in KSA.
Results: The estimated incidence of all forms of tuberculosis fell from 15.8/100000 (95% CI: 15.3/100,000-16.3/100,000) in 2010 to 13.8/100,000 (95% CI: 13.4/100,000-14.2/100,000) in 2011. Saudis experienced a decrease from 11.8/100,000 (95% CI: 11.3/100,000 to 12.3/100,000) in 2010 to 9.9/100,000 (95% CI: 9.5/100,000-10.4/100,000) in 2011 while the incidence in non-Saudis declined from 24.7/100,000 (95% CI: 23.6/100,000 to 25.7/100,000) in 2010 to 22.5/100,000 (95% CI: 21.5/100,000 to 23.4/100,000) in 2011. The proportion of Extra Pulmonary TB (EPTB) which increased minimally from 30% in 2010 to 32% in 2011 was higher than global figures and strongly associated with age, sex, nationality and occupation.
Conclusion: The current estimated incidence of about 14/100,000 in 2011 is less than half its estimated value of 44/100000 in 1990. Without prejudice to any under-reporting, the KSA appeared to be on the course for TB elimination by 2050 having reached the first milestone set by WHO. The proportion of EPTB remains higher than global figure and age, sex, nationality and occupation were significant independent predictors of EPTB.