Structuring targeted surveillance for monitoring disease emergence by mapping observational data onto ecological process.

J R Soc Interface 2013 Sep 17;10(86):20130418. Epub 2013 Jul 17.

Center for Disease Ecology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA.

An efficient surveillance system is a crucial factor in identifying, monitoring and tackling outbreaks of infectious diseases. Scarcity of data and limited amounts of economic resources require a targeted effort from public health authorities. In this paper, we propose a mathematical method to identify areas where surveillance is critical and low reporting rates might leave epidemics undetected. Our approach combines the use of reference-based susceptible-exposed-infectious models and observed reporting data; We propose two different specifications, for constant and time-varying surveillance, respectively. Our case study is centred around the spread of the raccoon rabies epidemic in the state of New York, using data collected between 1990 and 2007. Both methods offer a feasible solution to analyse and identify areas of intervention.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2013.0418DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3730692PMC
September 2013

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