Publications by authors named "Yu-Tang Gao"

572 Publications

Development and external validation of a breast cancer absolute risk prediction model in Chinese population.

Breast Cancer Res 2021 May 29;23(1):62. Epub 2021 May 29.

Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Center, 38 Xueyuan Road, Beijing, 100191, China.

Backgrounds: In contrast to developed countries, breast cancer in China is characterized by a rapidly escalating incidence rate in the past two decades, lower survival rate, and vast geographic variation. However, there is no validated risk prediction model in China to aid early detection yet.

Methods: A large nationwide prospective cohort, China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB), was used to evaluate relative and attributable risks of invasive breast cancer. A total of 300,824 women free of any prior cancer were recruited during 2004-2008 and followed up to Dec 31, 2016. Cox models were used to identify breast cancer risk factors and build a relative risk model. Absolute risks were calculated by incorporating national age- and residence-specific breast cancer incidence and non-breast cancer mortality rates. We used an independent large prospective cohort, Shanghai Women's Health Study (SWHS), with 73,203 women to externally validate the calibration and discriminating accuracy.

Results: During a median of 10.2 years of follow-up in the CKB, 2287 cases were observed. The final model included age, residence area, education, BMI, height, family history of overall cancer, parity, and age at menarche. The model was well-calibrated in both the CKB and the SWHS, yielding expected/observed (E/O) ratios of 1.01 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.94-1.09) and 0.94 (95% CI, 0.89-0.99), respectively. After eliminating the effect of age and residence, the model maintained moderate but comparable discriminating accuracy compared with those of some previous externally validated models. The adjusted areas under the receiver operating curve (AUC) were 0.634 (95% CI, 0.608-0.661) and 0.585 (95% CI, 0.564-0.605) in the CKB and the SWHS, respectively.

Conclusions: Based only on non-laboratory predictors, our model has a good calibration and moderate discriminating capacity. The model may serve as a useful tool to raise individuals' awareness and aid risk-stratified screening and prevention strategies.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13058-021-01439-2DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8164768PMC
May 2021

Reduction in total and major cause-specific mortality from tobacco smoking cessation: a pooled analysis of 16 population-based cohort studies in Asia.

Int J Epidemiol 2021 Feb 5. Epub 2021 Feb 5.

Division of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt Epidemiology Center, Vanderbilt-Ingram Cancer Center, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN, USA.

Background: Little is known about the time course of mortality reduction following smoking cessation in Asians who have smoking behaviours distinct from their Western counterparts. We evaluated the level of reduction in all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and lung cancer mortality by years since quitting smoking, in Asia.

Methods: Using Cox regression, we analysed individual participant data (n = 709 151) from 16 prospective cohorts conducted in China, Japan, Korea/Singapore, and India/Bangladesh, separately by cohorts. Cohort-specific hazard ratios (HRs) were combined using a random-effects meta-analysis.

Results: During a mean follow-up of 12.0 years, 108 287 deaths were ascertained-35 658 from CVD and 7546 from lung cancer. Among Asian men, a dose-response relationship of risk reduction in deaths from all causes, CVD and lung cancer was observed with an increase in years after smoking cessation. Compared with never smokers, however, all-cause and CVD mortality among former smokers remained elevated 10-14 years after quitting [multivariable-adjusted HR (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.25 (1.13-1.37) and 1.20 (1.02-1.41), respectively]. Lung cancer mortality stayed almost 2-fold higher than among never smokers 15-19 years after smoking cessation [1.97 (1.41-2.73)], particularly among former heavy smokers [2.62 (1.71-4.00)]. Women who quitted for ≥5 years retained a significantly elevated mortality from all causes, CVD and lung cancer. Overall patterns of the cessation-mortality associations were similar across countries.

Conclusions: Our findings suggest that adverse effects of tobacco smoking persist for an extended time period, even for more than two decades, which is beyond the time windows defined in current clinical guidelines for risk assessment of lung cancer and CVD.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyab087DOI Listing
February 2021

Sub-multiplicative interaction between polygenic risk score and household coal use in relation to lung adenocarcinoma among never-smoking women in Asia.

Environ Int 2021 02 29;147:105975. Epub 2020 Dec 29.

Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, School of Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.

We previously identified 10 lung adenocarcinoma susceptibility loci in a genome-wide association study (GWAS) conducted in the Female Lung Cancer Consortium in Asia (FLCCA), the largest genomic study of lung cancer among never-smoking women to date. Furthermore, household coal use for cooking and heating has been linked to lung cancer in Asia, especially in Xuanwei, China. We investigated the potential interaction between genetic susceptibility and coal use in FLCCA. We analyzed GWAS-data from Taiwan, Shanghai, and Shenyang (1472 cases; 1497 controls), as well as a separate study conducted in Xuanwei (152 cases; 522 controls) for additional analyses. We summarized genetic susceptibility using a polygenic risk score (PRS), which was the weighted sum of the risk-alleles from the 10 previously identified loci. We estimated associations between a PRS, coal use (ever/never), and lung adenocarcinoma with multivariable logistic regression models, and evaluated potential gene-environment interactions using likelihood ratio tests. There was a strong association between continuous PRS and lung adenocarcinoma among never coal users (Odds Ratio (OR) = 1.69 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 1.53, 1.87), p=1 × 10). This effect was attenuated among ever coal users (OR = 1.24 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.50), p = 0.02, p-interaction = 6 × 10). We observed similar attenuation among coal users from Xuanwei. Our study provides evidence that genetic susceptibility to lung adenocarcinoma among never-smoking Asian women is weaker among coal users. These results suggest that lung cancer pathogenesis may differ, at least partially, depending on exposure to coal combustion products. Notably, these novel findings are among the few instances of sub-multiplicative gene-environment interactions in the cancer literature.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2020.105975DOI Listing
February 2021

Associations of coffee and tea consumption with lung cancer risk.

Int J Cancer 2020 Dec 16. Epub 2020 Dec 16.

Department of Food and Nutrition, College of Human Ecology, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea.

Associations of coffee and tea consumption with lung cancer risk have been inconsistent, and most lung cancer cases investigated were smokers. Included in this study were over 1.1 million participants from 17 prospective cohorts. Cox regression analyses were conducted to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Potential effect modifications by sex, smoking, race, cancer subtype and coffee type were assessed. After a median 8.6 years of follow-up, 20 280 incident lung cancer cases were identified. Compared with noncoffee and nontea consumption, HRs (95% CIs) associated with exclusive coffee drinkers (≥2 cups/d) among current, former and never smokers were 1.30 (1.15-1.47), 1.49 (1.27-1.74) and 1.35 (1.15-1.58), respectively. Corresponding HRs for exclusive tea drinkers (≥2 cups/d) were 1.16 (1.02-1.32), 1.10 (0.92-1.32) and 1.37 (1.17-1.61). In general, the coffee and tea associations did not differ significantly by sex, race or histologic subtype. Our findings suggest that higher consumption of coffee or tea is associated with increased lung cancer risk. However, these findings should not be assumed to be causal because of the likelihood of residual confounding by smoking, including passive smoking, and change of coffee and tea consumption after study enrolment.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ijc.33445DOI Listing
December 2020

Variation in oral microbiome is associated with future risk of lung cancer among never-smokers.

Thorax 2021 03 14;76(3):256-263. Epub 2020 Dec 14.

National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland, USA.

Objective: To prospectively investigate whether diversity in oral microbiota is associated with risk of lung cancer among never-smokers.

Design And Setting: A nested case-control study within two prospective cohort studies, the Shanghai Women's Health Study (n=74 941) and the Shanghai Men's Health Study (n=61 480).

Participants: Lifetime never-smokers who had no cancer at baseline. Cases were subjects who were diagnosed with incident lung cancer (n=114) and were matched 1:1 with controls on sex, age (≤2 years), date (≤30 days) and time (morning/afternoon) of sample collection, antibiotic use during the week before sample collection (yes/no) and menopausal status (for women).

Main Outcomes And Measures: Metagenomic shotgun sequencing was used to measure the community structure and abundance of the oral microbiome in pre-diagnostic oral rinse samples of each case and control. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to estimate the association of lung cancer risk with alpha diversity metrics and relative abundance of taxa. The Microbiome Regression-Based Kernel Association Test (MiRKAT) evaluated the association between risk and the microbiome beta diversity.

Results: Subjects with lower microbiota alpha diversity had an increased risk of lung cancer compared with those with higher microbial alpha diversity (Shannon: p=0.05; Simpson: p=0.04; Observed Species: p=0.64). No case-control differences were apparent for beta diversity (p=0.30). After accounting for multiple comparisons, a greater abundance of Spirochaetia (OR 1.00 (reference), OR 0.61 (95% CI 0.32 to 1.18), OR 0.42 (95% CI 0.21 to 0.85)) and Bacteroidetes (OR 1.00 (reference), OR 0.66 (95% CI 0.35 to 1.25), OR 0.31 (95% CI 0.15 to 0.64)) was associated with a decreased risk of lung cancer, while a greater abundance of the Bacilli class (OR 1.00 (reference), OR 1.49 (95% CI 0.73 to 3.08), OR 2.40 (95% CI 1.18 to 4.87)) and Lactobacillales order (OR 1.00 (reference), OR 2.15 (95% CI 1.03 to 4.47), OR 3.26 (95% CI 1.58 to 6.70)) was associated with an increased risk of lung cancer.

Conclusions: Our prospective study of never-smokers suggests that lower alpha diversity was associated with a greater risk of lung cancer and the abundance of certain specific taxa was associated with altered risk, providing further insight into the aetiology of lung cancer in the absence of active tobacco smoking.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/thoraxjnl-2020-215542DOI Listing
March 2021

Integrative molecular characterisation of gallbladder cancer reveals micro-environment-associated subtypes.

J Hepatol 2021 May 1;74(5):1132-1144. Epub 2020 Dec 1.

Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, NIH, Rockville, MD, USA. Electronic address:

Background & Aims: Gallbladder cancer (GBC) is the most common type of biliary tract cancer, but the molecular mechanisms involved in gallbladder carcinogenesis remain poorly understood. In this study, we applied integrative genomics approaches to characterise GBC and explore molecular subtypes associated with patient survival.

Methods: We profiled the mutational landscape of GBC tumours (whole-exome sequencing on 92, targeted sequencing on 98, in total 190 patients). In a subset (n = 45), we interrogated the matched transcriptomes, DNA methylomes, and somatic copy number alterations. We explored molecular subtypes identified through clustering tumours by genes whose expression was associated with survival in 47 tumours and validated subtypes on 34 publicly available GBC cases.

Results: Exome analysis revealed TP53 was the most mutated gene. The overall mutation rate was low (median 0.82 Mut/Mb). APOBEC-mediated mutational signatures were more common in tumours with higher mutational burden. Aflatoxin-related signatures tended to be highly clonal (present in ≥50% of cancer cells). Transcriptome-wide survival association analysis revealed a 95-gene signature that stratified all GBC patients into 3 subtypes that suggested an association with overall survival post-resection. The 2 poor-survival subtypes were associated with adverse clinicopathologic features (advanced stage, pN1, pM1), immunosuppressive micro-environments (myeloid-derived suppressor cell accumulation, extensive desmoplasia, hypoxia) and T cell dysfunction, whereas the good-survival subtype showed the opposite features.

Conclusion: These data suggest that the tumour micro-environment and immune profiles could play an important role in gallbladder carcinogenesis and should be evaluated in future clinical studies, along with mutational profiles.

Lay Summary: Gallbladder cancer is highly fatal, and its causes are poorly understood. We evaluated gallbladder tumours to see if there were differences between tumours in genetic information such as DNA and RNA. We found evidence of aflatoxin exposure in these tumours, and immune cells surrounding the tumours were associated with survival.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhep.2020.11.033DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8058239PMC
May 2021

Serum IL27 in Relation to Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Two Nested Case-Control Studies.

Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2021 Feb 17;30(2):388-395. Epub 2020 Nov 17.

UPMC Hillman Cancer Center, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

Background: IL27 mRNA is highly enriched in the tissue of hepatocellular carcinoma. Overexpression of IL27 gene has been found to increase T-cell expression of inhibitory receptors, an immunosuppressive feature in tumor microenvironment, that promotes the development of hepatocellular carcinoma.

Methods: Two parallel case-control studies of hepatocellular carcinoma, each with 100 case-control pairs were conducted in the Singapore Chinese Health Study and the Shanghai Cohort Study to examine the association between serum IL27 levels and risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma.

Results: The IL27 concentrations were significantly elevated in sera collected from study participants 4 to 5 years prior to the diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in both cohort studies. Compared with the lowest tertile of IL27, odds ratios (OR) of hepatocellular carcinoma for the highest tertile of IL27 was 46.08 [95% confidence interval (CI), 4.68-453.86] in the Singapore Chinese Health Study and 19.09 (95% CI, 3.81-95.57) in the Shanghai Cohort Study (both <0.001). The corresponding ORs in both cohort studies were 42.47 (95% CI, 8.30-217.40) among individuals negative for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and 242.46 (95% CI, 38.42-1,529.01) among those positive for HBsAg compared with the lowest tertile of interleukin-27 and negative HBsAg.

Conclusions: Levels of IL27 in prediagnostic sera were significantly associated with increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma development.

Impact: IL27, through its immunosuppressive property, may play a significant role in the development of hepatocellular carcinoma. Serum levels of IL27 may be used as a biomarker for prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma development.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-20-1081DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7867592PMC
February 2021

Cost-Effectiveness of Drug Treatment for Chinese Patients With Stage I Hypertension According to the 2017 Hypertension Clinical Practice Guidelines.

Hypertension 2020 09 27;76(3):750-758. Epub 2020 Jul 27.

From the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics (Y.-F.Z., N.L., X.-Y.S., X.-F.P., A.P.), School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.

Systolic/diastolic blood pressure of 130 to 139/80 to 89 mm Hg has been defined as stage I hypertension by the 2017 Hypertension Clinical Practice Guidelines. Drug treatment is recommended for stage I hypertensive patients aged ≥65 years without cardiovascular disease in the 2017 Hypertension Clinical Practice Guidelines but not in the 2018 Chinese guidelines. However, the cost-effectiveness of drug treatment among this subgroup of Chinese patients is unclear. This study developed a microsimulation model to compare costs and effectiveness of drug treatment and nondrug treatment for the subgroup of stage I hypertensive patients over a lifetime horizon from a government affordability perspective. Event rates of mortality and cardiovascular complications were estimated from 3 cohorts in the Chinese population. Costs and health utilities were obtained from the national statistics report and published literature. The model predicted that drug treatment generated quality-adjusted life-years of 13.52 and associated with expected costs of $6825 in comparison with 13.81 and $7328 produced by nondrug treatment over a lifetime horizon among stage I hypertensive patients aged ≥65 years without cardiovascular disease. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of $8836/quality-adjusted life-year (the GDP per capita in 2017), drug treatment only had a 1.8% probability of being cost-effective compared with nondrug treatment after 10 000 probabilistic simulations. Sensitivity analysis of treatment costs, benefits expected from treatment, health utilities, and discount rates did not change the results. Our results suggested that drug treatment was not cost-effective compared with nondrug treatment for stage I hypertensive patients aged ≥65 years without cardiovascular disease in China.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1161/HYPERTENSIONAHA.119.14533DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7429361PMC
September 2020

Plasma omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids and recurrence of endometrial cancer.

BMC Cancer 2020 Jun 20;20(1):576. Epub 2020 Jun 20.

CAS Key Laboratory of Nutrition, Metabolism and Food Safety, Shanghai Institute of Nutrition and Health, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai, People's Republic of China.

Background: Omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) were proposed to have potential effects against inflammation and cancer. However, results from epidemiology studies remain inconsistent. We aimed to explore the associations of plasma PUFAs with EC recurrence and all-cause mortality.

Method: Women diagnosed with endometrial cancer (EC) between 2008 and 2013 and underwent surgery at Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center of China were recruited. Survival status was followed up through September 2017. EC recurrence and total cause deaths were identified through medical record and telephone interview. In total, 202 patients with enough plasma samples at time of surgery were included. There were 195 patients who provided baseline plasma and survival information included in the current study. Plasma omega-3 PUFAs were measured by GC-FID. Cox Proportional Hazard model adjusted for potential cofounders was used to estimate HRs and 95% CIs.

Results: Median follow-up time for patients was 58 months after surgery. A total of 13 recurrences and 11 all-cause deaths, of which, 2 deaths from EC, were identified. Level of plasma EPA was higher in recurrent patients than total patients (0.78% vs 0.51%, P = 0.015). Higher plasma eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) level trended to have positive association with EC recurrence (P-trend = 0.04), although comparing to the lowest tertile, the highest tertile of EPA level was not significantly associated with increased risk of EC recurrence (HR = 6.02; 95%CI = 0.7-52.06). The association between total omega-3 PUFA and EC recurrence tended to be stronger among patients with deeper myometrial invasion (OR = 3.41; 95%CI = 1.06-10.95; P-interaction = 0.04).

Conclusions: Higher plasma EPA level was significantly associated with EC recurrence. Further studies are warranted to confirm these findings.

Trial Registration: ChiCTR1900025418; Retrospectively registered (26 August 2019); Chinses Clinical Trial Registry.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12885-020-07035-5DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7305622PMC
June 2020

Quantifying the association of low-intensity and late initiation of tobacco smoking with total and cause-specific mortality in Asia.

Tob Control 2021 05 16;30(3):328-335. Epub 2020 Jun 16.

Division of Epidemiology, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, Miyagi, Japan.

Background: Little is known about the health harms associated with low-intensity smoking in Asians who, on average, smoke fewer cigarettes and start smoking at a later age than their Western counterparts.

Methods: In this pooled analysis of 738 013 Asians from 16 prospective cohorts, we quantified the associations of low-intensity (<5 cigarettes/day) and late initiation (≥35 years) of smoking with mortality outcomes. HRs and 95% CIs were estimated for each cohort by Cox regression. Cohort-specific HRs were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis.

Findings: During a mean follow-up of 11.3 years, 92 068 deaths were ascertained. Compared with never smokers, current smokers who consumed <5 cigarettes/day or started smoking after age 35 years had a 16%-41% increased risk of all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory disease mortality and a >twofold risk of lung cancer mortality. Furthermore, current smokers who started smoking after age 35 and smoked <5 cigarettes/day had significantly elevated risks of all-cause (HRs (95% CIs)=1.14 (1.05 to 1.23)), CVD (1.27 (1.08 to 1.49)) and respiratory disease (1.54 (1.17 to 2.01)) mortality. Even smokers who smoked <5 cigarettes/day but quit smoking before the age of 45 years had a 16% elevated risk of all-cause mortality; however, the risk declined further with increasing duration of abstinence.

Conclusions: Our study showed that smokers who smoked a small number of cigarettes or started smoking later in life also experienced significantly elevated all-cause and major cause-specific mortality but benefited from cessation. There is no safe way to smoke-not smoking is always the best choice.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2019-055412DOI Listing
May 2021

A prospective evaluation of serum methionine-related metabolites in relation to pancreatic cancer risk in two prospective cohort studies.

Int J Cancer 2020 10 7;147(7):1917-1927. Epub 2020 Apr 7.

Division of Cancer Control and Population Science, UPMC Hillman Cancer Center, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.

Deficiencies in methyl donor status may render DNA methylation changes and DNA damage, leading to carcinogenesis. Epidemiological studies reported that higher dietary intake of choline is associated with lower risk of pancreatic cancer, but no study has examined the association of serum choline and its metabolites with risk of pancreatic cancer. Two parallel case-control studies, one nested within the Shanghai Cohort Study (129 cases and 258 controls) and the other within the Singapore Chinese Health Study (58 cases and 104 controls), were conducted to evaluate the associations of baseline serum concentrations of choline, betaine, methionine, total methyl donors (i.e., sum of choline, betaine and methionine), dimethylglycine and trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO) with pancreatic cancer risk. In the Shanghai cohort, odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals of pancreatic cancer for the highest quartile of choline, betaine, methionine, total methyl donors and TMAO were 0.27 (0.11-0.69), 0.57 (0.31-1.05), 0.50 (0.26-0.96), 0.37 (0.19-0.73) and 2.81 (1.37-5.76), respectively, compared to the lowest quartile. The corresponding figures in the Singapore cohort were 0.85 (0.23-3.17), 0.50 (0.17-1.45), 0.17 (0.04-0.68), 0.33 (0.10-1.16) and 1.42 (0.50-4.04). The inverse associations of methionine and total methyl donors including choline, betaine and methionine with pancreatic cancer risk in both cohorts support that DNA repair and methylation play an important role against the development of pancreatic cancer. In the Shanghai cohort, TMAO, a gut microbiota-derived metabolite of dietary phosphatidylcholine, may contribute to higher risk of pancreatic cancer, suggesting a modifying role of gut microbiota in the dietary choline-pancreatic cancer risk association.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ijc.32994DOI Listing
October 2020

Identification of novel breast cancer susceptibility loci in meta-analyses conducted among Asian and European descendants.

Nat Commun 2020 03 5;11(1):1217. Epub 2020 Mar 5.

Departments of Health Research and Policy, School of Medicine, Stanford University, California, CA, USA.

Known risk variants explain only a small proportion of breast cancer heritability, particularly in Asian women. To search for additional genetic susceptibility loci for breast cancer, here we perform a meta-analysis of data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) conducted in Asians (24,206 cases and 24,775 controls) and European descendants (122,977 cases and 105,974 controls). We identified 31 potential novel loci with the lead variant showing an association with breast cancer risk at P < 5 × 10. The associations for 10 of these loci were replicated in an independent sample of 16,787 cases and 16,680 controls of Asian women (P < 0.05). In addition, we replicated the associations for 78 of the 166 known risk variants at P < 0.05 in Asians. These findings improve our understanding of breast cancer genetics and etiology and extend previous findings from studies of European descendants to Asian women.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15046-wDOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7057957PMC
March 2020

Author Correction: Circulating Levels of Inflammatory Proteins and Survival in Patients with Gallbladder Cancer.

Sci Rep 2020 Feb 11;10(1):2680. Epub 2020 Feb 11.

Infections and Immunoepidemiology Branch of the Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland, USA.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-59761-2DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7010664PMC
February 2020

Associations of choline-related nutrients with cardiometabolic and all-cause mortality: results from 3 prospective cohort studies of blacks, whites, and Chinese.

Am J Clin Nutr 2020 03;111(3):644-656

Division of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN, USA.

Background: Choline-related nutrients are dietary precursors of a gut microbial metabolite, trimethylamine-N-oxide, which has been linked to cardiometabolic diseases and related death. However, epidemiologic evidence on dietary choline and mortality remains limited, particularly among nonwhite populations.

Objectives: This study aimed to investigate the associations of choline-related nutrients with cardiometabolic and all-cause mortality among black and white Americans and Chinese adults.

Methods: Included were 49,858 blacks, 23,766 whites, and 134,001 Chinese, aged 40-79 y, who participated in 3 prospective cohorts and lived ≥1 y after enrollment. Cox regression models were used to estimate HRs and 95% CIs for cardiometabolic [e.g., ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, and diabetes] and all-cause deaths. To account for multiple testing, P values < 0.003 were considered significant.

Results: Mean choline intake among blacks, whites, and Chinese was 404.1 mg/d, 362.0 mg/d, and 296.8 mg/d, respectively. During a median follow-up of 11.7 y, 28,673 deaths were identified, including 11,141 cardiometabolic deaths. After comprehensive adjustments, including for overall diet quality and disease history, total choline intake was associated with increased cardiometabolic mortality among blacks and Chinese (HR for highest compared with lowest quintile: 1.26; 95% CI: 1.13, 1.40 and HR: 1.23; 95% CI: 1.11, 1.38, respectively; both P-trend < 0.001); among whites, the association was weaker (HR: 1.12; 95% CI: 0.95, 1.33; P-trend = 0.02). Total choline intake was also associated with diabetes and all-cause mortality in blacks (HR: 1.66; 95% CI: 1.26, 2.19 and HR: 1.20; 95% CI: 1.12, 1.29, respectively), with diabetes mortality in Chinese (HR: 2.24; 95% CI: 1.68, 2.97), and with IHD mortality in whites (HR: 1.31; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.69) (all P-trend < 0.001). The choline-mortality association was modified by alcohol consumption and appeared stronger among individuals with existing cardiometabolic disease. Betaine intake was associated with increased cardiometabolic mortality in Chinese only (HR: 1.16; 95% CI: 1.08, 1.25; P-trend < 0.001).

Conclusions: High choline intake was associated with increased cardiometabolic mortality in racially diverse populations.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ajcn/nqz318DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7049525PMC
March 2020

Discovery of rare coding variants in OGDHL and BRCA2 in relation to breast cancer risk in Chinese women.

Int J Cancer 2020 04 27;146(8):2175-2181. Epub 2019 Dec 27.

Division of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt Epidemiology Center, Vanderbilt-Ingram Cancer Center, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, TN.

The missing heritability of breast cancer could be partially attributed to rare variants (MAF < 0.5%). To identify breast cancer-associated rare coding variants, we conducted whole-exome sequencing (~50×) in genomic DNA samples obtained from 831 breast cancer cases and 839 controls of Chinese females. Using burden tests for each gene that included rare missense or predicted deleterious variants, we identified 29 genes showing promising associations with breast cancer risk. We replicated the association for two genes, OGDHL and BRCA2, at a Bonferroni-corrected p < 0.05, by genotyping an independent set of samples from 1,628 breast cancer cases and 1,943 controls. The association for OGDHL was primarily driven by three predicted deleterious variants (p.Val827Met, p.Pro839Leu, p.Phe836Ser; p < 0.01 for all). For BRCA2, we characterized a total of 27 disruptive variants, including 18 nonsense, six frameshift and three splicing variants, whereas they were only detected in cases, but none of the controls. All of these variants were either very rare (AF < 0.1%) or not detected in >4,500 East Asian women from the genome Aggregation database (gnomAD), providing additional support to our findings. Our study revealed a potential novel gene and multiple disruptive variants of BRCA2 for breast cancer risk, which may identify high-risk women in Chinese populations.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ijc.32825DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7453427PMC
April 2020

Association of Adult Weight Gain With Major Health Outcomes Among Middle-aged Chinese Persons With Low Body Weight in Early Adulthood.

JAMA Netw Open 2019 12 2;2(12):e1917371. Epub 2019 Dec 2.

Vanderbilt Epidemiology Center, Division of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt-Ingram Cancer Center, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee.

Importance: The association of weight gain from early to middle adulthood with disease risk has not been adequately studied.

Objective: To investigate the association of adult weight gain with major health outcomes in a Chinese population with low body weight in early adulthood.

Design, Setting, And Participants: This population-based cohort study assessed data from 48 377 women and 35 989 men aged 40 to 59 years at recruitment in 2 prospective cohort studies in China. The Shanghai Women's Health Study recruited 74 941 women, aged 40 to 70 years, from January 1, 1996, to December 31, 2000, and the Shanghai Men's Health Study recruited 61 482 men, aged 40 to 74 years, from January 1, 2002, to December 31, 2006. This analysis was conducted from September 1, 2017, to April 30, 2018.

Exposures: Weight gain from 20 years of age to 40 to 59 years of age.

Main Outcomes And Measures: Mortality and incidence of cancers and other chronic diseases.

Results: This analysis included 48 377 women (mean [SD] age, 47.8 [5.3] years) and 35 989 men (mean [SD] age, 49.6 [5.1] years). Per 5-kg weight gain from early to middle adulthood was associated with an approximately 10% (hazard ratio [HR], 1.09; 95% CI, 1.04-1.14 for men; HR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.11-1.19 for women) elevated all-cause mortality and a greater than 20% (HR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.16-1.38 for men; HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.14-1.33 for women) cardiovascular disease-related mortality in later life among individuals who reached a body mass index (BMI) of 23 or higher at middle adulthood. Body mass index at middle adulthood also modified the association of weight gain with risk of obesity-related cancers, with weight gain of 20 kg or more associated with increased risks both for men (HR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.07-1.67) and for women (HR 1.45; 95% CI, 1.24-1.68). No similar associations were found for individuals with a BMI of 18.5 to 22.9. Regardless of BMI, weight gain was associated with elevated risks of type 2 diabetes, hypertension, fatty liver disease, stroke, gout, and gallstones, particularly for type 2 diabetes (HR, 7.87; 95% CI, 6.91-8.97 for women; HR, 4.95; 95% CI, 4.23-5.79 for men) and fatty liver disease (HR, 3.68; 95% CI, 3.42-3.95 for women; HR, 2.83, 95% CI, 2.56-3.13 for men) in individuals with weight gain of 20 kg or more compared with those with a healthy weight.

Conclusions And Relevance: This study found that weight gain from early to middle adulthood was associated with disease incidence and mortality in later life. The BMI at middle adulthood modified the association of weight gain with mortality and cancer incidence but not risk of other major chronic diseases.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2019.17371DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6991199PMC
December 2019

Urinary metabolites and risk of coronary heart disease: A prospective investigation among urban Chinese adults.

Nutr Metab Cardiovasc Dis 2020 03 5;30(3):467-473. Epub 2019 Nov 5.

Division of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN, USA. Electronic address:

Background And Aims: Studies have linked several metabolites to the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) among Western populations, but prospective studies among Asian populations on the metabolite-CHD association remain limited.

Methods And Results: We evaluated the association of urinary metabolites with CHD risk among Chinese adults in a nested case-control study of 275 incident cases and 275 matched controls (127 pairs of men and 148 pairs of women). Fifty metabolites were measured by a predefined metabolomics panel and adjusted using urinary creatinine. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). After adjusting for traditional CHD risk factors, urinary tryptophan showed a positive association with incident CHD: OR (95% CI) for the highest vs. lowest quartiles was 2.02 (1.15-3.56) among all study participants (p-trend = 0.02). The tryptophan-CHD association was more evident among individuals with dyslipidemia than among those without the condition (OR [95% CI] for the highest vs. lowest quartiles = 3.90 [1.86-8.19] and 0.74 [0.26-2.06], respectively; p-interaction<0.01). Other metabolites did not show significant associations with CHD risk among all study participants. However, a positive association of methionine with CHD risk was observed only among women (OR [95% CI] for the highest vs. lowest quartiles = 2.77 [1.17-6.58]; p-interaction = 0.03), and an inverse association of inosine with CHD risk was observed only among men (OR [95% CI] for the highest vs. lowest quartiles = 0.29 [0.11-0.81]; p-interaction = 0.04).

Conclusion: Elevated urinary tryptophan may be related to CHD risk among Chinese adults, especially for those with dyslipidemia.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.numecd.2019.10.011DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7044070PMC
March 2020

Identification of Novel Loci and New Risk Variant in Known Loci for Colorectal Cancer Risk in East Asians.

Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2020 02 11;29(2):477-486. Epub 2019 Dec 11.

Laboratory for Statistical Analysis, RIKEN Center for Integrative Medical Sciences, Kanagawa, Japan.

Background: Risk variants identified so far for colorectal cancer explain only a small proportion of familial risk of this cancer, particularly in Asians.

Methods: We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of colorectal cancer in East Asians, including 23,572 colorectal cancer cases and 48,700 controls. To identify novel risk loci, we selected 60 promising risk variants for replication using data from 58,131 colorectal cancer cases and 67,347 controls of European descent. To identify additional risk variants in known colorectal cancer loci, we performed conditional analyses in East Asians.

Results: An indel variant, rs67052019 at 1p13.3, was found to be associated with colorectal cancer risk at × 10 in Asians ( per allele deletion = 1.13, 95% confidence interval = 1.08-1.18). This association was replicated in European descendants using a variant (rs2938616) in complete linkage disequilibrium with rs67052019 ( = 7.7 × 10). Of the remaining 59 variants, 12 showed an association at < 0.05 in the European-ancestry study, including rs11108175 and rs9634162 at < 5 × 10 and two variants with an association near the genome-wide significance level (rs60911071, = 5.8 × 10; rs62558833, = 7.5 × 10) in the combined analyses of Asian- and European-ancestry data. In addition, using data from East Asians, we identified 13 new risk variants at 11 loci reported from previous GWAS.

Conclusions: In this large GWAS, we identified three novel risk loci and two highly suggestive loci for colorectal cancer risk and provided evidence for potential roles of multiple genes and pathways in the etiology of colorectal cancer. In addition, we showed that additional risk variants exist in many colorectal cancer risk loci identified previously.

Impact: Our study provides novel data to improve the understanding of the genetic basis for colorectal cancer risk.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-19-0755DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7571256PMC
February 2020

Urinary Cotinine Is as Good a Biomarker as Serum Cotinine for Cigarette Smoking Exposure and Lung Cancer Risk Prediction.

Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2020 01 4;29(1):127-132. Epub 2019 Nov 4.

Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, UPMC Hillman Cancer Center, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

Background: Cotinine is a metabolite of nicotine. Serum and urinary cotinine are validated biomarkers for cigarette exposure. Their performance for lung cancer risk prediction has not been simultaneously examined in epidemiologic studies.

Methods: A nested case-control study, including 452 incident lung cancer cases and 452 smoking-matched controls in the Shanghai cohort study, was conducted. Mass spectrometry-based methods were used to quantify cotinine in serum and urine samples collected from current smokers at baseline, on average 10 years before cancer diagnosis of cases. Logistic regression was used to estimate ORs, 95% confidence intervals (CI), and AUC ROC for lung cancer associated with higher levels of cotinine.

Results: Serum and urinary cotinine levels were significantly higher in lung cancer cases than controls. Compared with the lowest quartile serum cotinine (≤0.40 nmol/mL), the OR of lung cancer for smokers in the highest quartiles (>1.39 nmol/mL) was 5.46 (95% CI, 3.38-8.81). Similarly, the OR was 5.49 (95% CI, 3.39-8.87) for highest (>16.38 nmol/mg creatinine) relative to the lowest quartile of urinary total cotinine (≤4.11 nmol/mg creatinine). A risk prediction model yielded an AUC of 0.72 (95% CI, 0.69-0.75) for serum cotinine and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.69-0.75) for urinary total cotinine combined with smoking history.

Conclusions: Urinary and serum cotinine have the same performance in prediction of lung cancer risk for current smokers.

Impact: Urinary cotinine is a noninvasive biomarker that can replace serum cotinine in risk prediction of future lung cancer risk for current smokers.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-19-0653DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7695222PMC
January 2020

Association of Dietary Fiber and Yogurt Consumption With Lung Cancer Risk: A Pooled Analysis.

JAMA Oncol 2020 02 13;6(2):e194107. Epub 2020 Feb 13.

Division of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt Epidemiology Center, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee.

Importance: Dietary fiber (the main source of prebiotics) and yogurt (a probiotic food) confer various health benefits via modulating the gut microbiota and metabolic pathways. However, their associations with lung cancer risk have not been well investigated.

Objective: To evaluate the individual and joint associations of dietary fiber and yogurt consumption with lung cancer risk and to assess the potential effect modification of the associations by lifestyle and other dietary factors.

Design, Setting, And Participants: This pooled analysis included 10 prospective cohorts involving 1 445 850 adults from studies that were conducted in the United States, Europe, and Asia. Data analyses were performed between November 2017 and February 2019. Using harmonized individual participant data, hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for lung cancer risk associated with dietary fiber and yogurt intakes were estimated for each cohort by Cox regression and pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Participants who had a history of cancer at enrollment or developed any cancer, died, or were lost to follow-up within 2 years after enrollment were excluded.

Exposures: Dietary fiber intake and yogurt consumption measured by validated instruments.

Main Outcomes And Measures: Incident lung cancer, subclassified by histologic type (eg, adenocarcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma, and small cell carcinoma).

Results: The analytic sample included 627 988 men, with a mean (SD) age of 57.9 (9.0) years, and 817 862 women, with a mean (SD) age of 54.8 (9.7) years. During a median follow-up of 8.6 years, 18 822 incident lung cancer cases were documented. Both fiber and yogurt intakes were inversely associated with lung cancer risk after adjustment for status and pack-years of smoking and other lung cancer risk factors: hazard ratio, 0.83 (95% CI, 0.76-0.91) for the highest vs lowest quintile of fiber intake; and hazard ratio, 0.81 (95% CI, 0.76-0.87) for high vs no yogurt consumption. The fiber or yogurt associations with lung cancer were significant in never smokers and were consistently observed across sex, race/ethnicity, and tumor histologic type. When considered jointly, high yogurt consumption with the highest quintile of fiber intake showed more than 30% reduced risk of lung cancer than nonyogurt consumption with the lowest quintile of fiber intake (hazard ratio, 0.67 [95% CI, 0.61-0.73] in total study populations; hazard ratio, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.54-0.89] in never smokers), suggesting potential synergism.

Conclusions And Relevance: Dietary fiber and yogurt consumption was associated with reduced risk of lung cancer after adjusting for known risk factors and among never smokers. Our findings suggest a potential protective role of prebiotics and probiotics against lung carcinogenesis.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jamaoncol.2019.4107DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6813596PMC
February 2020

Re-evaluating genetic variants identified in candidate gene studies of breast cancer risk using data from nearly 280,000 women of Asian and European ancestry.

EBioMedicine 2019 Oct 16;48:203-211. Epub 2019 Oct 16.

Department of Epidemiology, Cancer Prevention Institute of California, Fremont, CA, USA; Department of Health Research and Policy, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA; Stanford Cancer Institute, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA.

Background: We previously conducted a systematic field synopsis of 1059 breast cancer candidate gene studies and investigated 279 genetic variants, 51 of which showed associations. The major limitation of this work was the small sample size, even pooling data from all 1059 studies. Thereafter, genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have accumulated data for hundreds of thousands of subjects. It's necessary to re-evaluate these variants in large GWAS datasets.

Methods: Of these 279 variants, data were obtained for 228 from GWAS conducted within the Asian Breast Cancer Consortium (24,206 cases and 24,775 controls) and the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (122,977 cases and 105,974 controls of European ancestry). Meta-analyses were conducted to combine the results from these two datasets.

Findings: Of those 228 variants, an association was observed for 12 variants in 10 genes at a Bonferroni-corrected threshold of P < 2·19 × 10. The associations for four variants reached P < 5 × 10 and have been reported by previous GWAS, including rs6435074 and rs6723097 (CASP8), rs17879961 (CHEK2) and rs2853669 (TERT). The remaining eight variants were rs676387 (HSD17B1), rs762551 (CYP1A2), rs1045485 (CASP8), rs9340799 (ESR1), rs7931342 (CHR11), rs1050450 (GPX1), rs13010627 (CASP10) and rs9344 (CCND1). Further investigating these 10 genes identified associations for two additional variants at P < 5 × 10, including rs4793090 (near HSD17B1), and rs9210 (near CYP1A2), which have not been identified by previous GWAS.

Interpretation: Though most candidate gene variants were not associated with breast cancer risk, we found 14 variants showing an association. Our findings warrant further functional investigation of these variants. FUND: National Institutes of Health.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ebiom.2019.09.006DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6838373PMC
October 2019

Association of Untargeted Urinary Metabolomics and Lung Cancer Risk Among Never-Smoking Women in China.

JAMA Netw Open 2019 09 4;2(9):e1911970. Epub 2019 Sep 4.

Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, Maryland.

Importance: Chinese women have the highest rate of lung cancer among female never-smokers in the world, and the etiology is poorly understood.

Objective: To assess the association between metabolomics and lung cancer risk among never-smoking women.

Design, Setting, And Participants: This nested case-control study included 275 never-smoking female patients with lung cancer and 289 never-smoking cancer-free control participants from the prospective Shanghai Women's Health Study recruited from December 28, 1996, to May 23, 2000. Validated food frequency questionnaires were used for the collection of dietary information. Metabolomic analysis was conducted from November 13, 2015, to January 6, 2016. Data analysis was conducted from January 6, 2016, to November 29, 2018.

Exposures: Untargeted ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry and nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomic profiles were characterized using prediagnosis urine samples. A total of 39 416 metabolites were measured.

Main Outcomes And Measures: Incident lung cancer.

Results: Among the 564 women, those who developed lung cancer (275 participants; median [interquartile range] age, 61.0 [52-65] years) and those who did not develop lung cancer (289 participants; median [interquartile range] age, 62.0 [53-66] years) at follow-up (median [interquartile range] follow-up, 10.9 [9.0-11.7] years) were similar in terms of their secondhand smoke exposure, history of respiratory diseases, and body mass index. A peak metabolite, identified as 5-methyl-2-furoic acid, was significantly associated with lower lung cancer risk (odds ratio, 0.57 [95% CI, 0.46-0.72]; P < .001; false discovery rate = 0.039). Furthermore, this peak was weakly correlated with self-reported dietary soy intake (ρ = 0.21; P < .001). Increasing tertiles of this metabolite were associated with lower lung cancer risk (in comparison with first tertile, odds ratio for second tertile, 0.52 [95% CI, 0.34-0.80]; and odds ratio for third tertile, 0.46 [95% CI, 0.30-0.70]), and the association was consistent across different histological subtypes and follow-up times. Additionally, metabolic pathway analysis found several systemic biological alterations that were associated with lung cancer risk, including 1-carbon metabolism, nucleotide metabolism, oxidative stress, and inflammation.

Conclusions And Relevance: This prospective study of the untargeted urinary metabolome and lung cancer among never-smoking women in China provides support for the hypothesis that soy-based metabolites are associated with lower lung cancer risk in never-smoking women and suggests that biological processes linked to air pollution may be associated with higher lung cancer risk in this population.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2019.11970DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6755532PMC
September 2019

Association between educational level and total and cause-specific mortality: a pooled analysis of over 694 000 individuals in the Asia Cohort Consortium.

BMJ Open 2019 08 22;9(8):e026225. Epub 2019 Aug 22.

Armed Forces Capital Hospital, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, The Republic of Korea.

Objective: To study the association of educational level and risk of death from all causes, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer among Asian populations.

Design: A pooled analysis of 15 population-based cohort studies.

Setting And Participants: 694 434 Asian individuals from 15 prospective cohorts within the Asia Cohort Consortium.

Interventions: None.

Main Outcome Measures: HRs and 95% CIs for all-cause mortality, as well as for CVD-specific mortality and cancer-specific mortality.

Results: A total of 694 434 participants (mean age at baseline=53.2 years) were included in the analysis. During a mean follow-up period of 12.5 years, 103 023 deaths were observed, among which 33 939 were due to cancer and 34 645 were due to CVD. Higher educational levels were significantly associated with lower risk of death from all causes compared with a low educational level (≤primary education); HRs and 95% CIs for secondary education, trade/technical education and ≥university education were 0.88 (0.85 to 0.92), 0.81 (0.73 to 0.90) and 0.71 (0.63 to 0.80), respectively (p=0.002). Similarly, HRs (95% CIs) were 0.93 (0.89 to 0.97), 0.86 (0.78 to 0.94) and 0.81 (0.73 to 0.89) for cancer death, and 0.88 (0.83 to 0.93), 0.77 (0.66 to 0.91) and 0.67 (0.58 to 0.77) for CVD death with increasing levels of education (both p <0.01). The pattern of the association among East Asians and South Asians was similar compared with ≤primary education; HR (95% CI) for all-cause mortality associated with ≥university education was 0.72 (0.63 to 0.81) among 539 724 East Asians (Chinese, Japanese and Korean) and 0.61 (0.54 to 0.69) among 154 710 South Asians (Indians and Bangladeshis).

Conclusion: Higher educational level was associated with substantially lower risk of death among Asian populations.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2018-026225DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6707688PMC
August 2019

Association of BMI, Smoking, and Alcohol with Multiple Myeloma Mortality in Asians: A Pooled Analysis of More than 800,000 Participants in the Asia Cohort Consortium.

Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2019 11 9;28(11):1861-1867. Epub 2019 Aug 9.

Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.

Background: To date, few epidemiologic studies have been conducted to elucidate lifestyle-related risk factors for multiple myeloma in Asia. We investigated the association of body mass index (BMI), smoking, and alcohol intake with the risk of multiple myeloma mortality through a pooled analysis of more than 800,000 participants in the Asia Cohort Consortium.

Methods: The analysis included 805,309 participants contributing 10,221,623 person-years of accumulated follow-up across Asia Cohort Consortium cohorts. HRs and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for the association between BMI, smoking, and alcohol at baseline and the risk of multiple myeloma mortality were assessed using a Cox proportional hazards model with shared frailty.

Results: We observed a statistically significant dose-dependent association between BMI categories and the risk of multiple myeloma mortality (<18.5 kg/m: HR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.52-1.24; 18.5-24.9 kg/m: reference; 25.0-29.9 kg/m: HR = 1.17, 95% CI: 0.94-1.47; ≥30 kg/m: HR = 1.61, 95% CI: 0.99-2.64, = 0.014). By sex, this association was more apparent in women than in men (P for heterogeneity between sexes = 0.150). We observed no significant associations between smoking or alcohol consumption and risk of multiple myeloma mortality.

Conclusions: This study showed that excess body mass is associated with an increased risk of multiple myeloma mortality among Asian populations. In contrast, our results do not support an association between smoking or alcohol consumption and the risk of multiple myeloma mortality in Asian populations.

Impact: This study provides important evidence on the association of BMI, smoking, and alcohol with the risk of multiple myeloma mortality in Asian populations.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-19-0389DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7986478PMC
November 2019

Ischaemic heart disease and stroke mortality by specific coal type among non-smoking women with substantial indoor air pollution exposure in China.

Int J Epidemiol 2020 02;49(1):56-68

Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA.

Background: Lifetime use of bituminous ('smoky') coal is associated with nearly a 100-fold higher risk of lung cancer mortality compared with anthracite ('smokeless') coal use in rural Xuanwei, China, among women. Risk of mortality from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke for these coal types has not been evaluated.

Methods: A cohort of 16 323 non-smoking women in Xuanwei, who were lifetime users of either smoky or smokeless coal, were followed up from 1976 to 2011. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to evaluate lifetime use of coal types and stoves in the home in relation to risk of IHD and stroke mortality.

Results: Among lifetime users of smokeless coal, higher average exposure intensity (≥4 tons/year vs <2.5 tons/year, HR = 7.9, 95% CI = 3.5-17.8; Ptrend =<0.0001) and cumulative exposure (>64 ton-years vs ≤28 ton-years, HR = 6.5, 95% CI = 1.5-28.3; Ptrend =0.003) during follow-up and over their lifetime was associated with increased IHD mortality, and ventilated stove use dramatically reduced this risk (HR = 0.2, 95% CI 0.1-0.5). Higher cumulative exposure to smoky coal during follow-up showed positive associations with IHD mortality, but the evidence for other metrics was less consistent compared with associations with smokeless coal use.

Conclusions: Higher use of smokeless coal, which is burned throughout China and is generally regarded to be a cleaner fuel type, is associated with IHD mortality. Use of cleaner fuels or stove interventions may be effective in reducing the increasing burden of IHD in developing regions that currently rely on smokeless coal for cooking and heating.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyz158DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7124484PMC
February 2020

Serum ghrelin and esophageal and gastric cancer in two cohorts in China.

Int J Cancer 2020 05 12;146(10):2728-2735. Epub 2019 Aug 12.

Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD.

Ghrelin is a hormone produced in the oxyntic glands of the stomach. Previous work by our group has suggested that serum ghrelin concentrations are inversely associated with gastric and esophageal cancer risk. We measured ghrelin concentrations in the Linxian General Population Nutrition Intervention Trial (NIT), and the Shanghai Women's Health Study (SWHS). In NIT, we analyzed serum samples from 298 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) cases, 518 gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCA) cases, 258 gastric noncardia adenocarcinoma (GNCA) cases and 770 subcohort controls (case-cohort). In SWHS, we measured ghrelin in plasma samples from 249 GNCA cases and 498 matched controls (nested case-control). Ghrelin was measured using radioimmunoassay. In NIT and SWHS, low ghrelin concentrations were associated with an increased risk of developing GNCA and GCA. The hazard ratio (HR ) for GNCA in NIT was 1.35 (95% CI: 0.89-2.05; p-trend = 0.02); the odds ratio in SWHS was 1.66 (95% CI: 1.02-2.70; p-trend = 0.06). Low ghrelin was associated with a twofold increase of GCA (HR = 2.00, 95% CI: 1.45-2.77; p-trend<0.001). In contrast, a lower risk of ESCC (NIT ESCC HR = 0.65, 95% CI: 0.45-0.92; p-trend = 0.02) was found in NIT. Low baseline ghrelin concentrations were associated with an increased risk for GNCA and GCA in the NIT and the SWHS. In contrast, low ghrelin concentrations at baseline were associated with a reduced risk of developing ESCC in the NIT. Ghrelin may be an early marker of future cancer risk for developing upper gastrointestinal cancer in regions of high incidence.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ijc.32597DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7477842PMC
May 2020

A Metallomic Approach to Assess Associations of Serum Metal Levels With Gallstones and Gallbladder Cancer.

Hepatology 2020 03 1;71(3):917-928. Epub 2019 Nov 1.

Infections and Immunoepidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, MD.

Background And Aims: Exposure to metals may promote the risk for cancers. We evaluated the associations of a broad spectrum of metals with gallbladder cancer (GBC) and gallstones.

Approach And Results: A total of 259 patients with GBC, 701 patients with gallstones, and 851 population-based controls were enrolled in Shanghai, China. A metallome panel was used to simultaneously detect 18 metals in serum through inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. Logistic regression models were used to estimate crude or adjusted odds ratios (OR ) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between metal levels and gallbladder disease. Among the 18 metals tested, 12 were significantly associated with GBC and six with gallstones (P  < 0.002). Boron, lithium, molybdenum, and arsenic levels were associated with GBC compared to gallstones as well as with gallstones compared to population-based controls. Elevated levels of cadmium, chromium, copper, molybdenum, and vanadium were positively associated with GBC versus gallstones; and the OR for the highest tertile (T3) compared to the lowest tertile (T1) ranged from 1.80 to 7.28, with evidence of dose-response trends (P < 0.05). Arsenic, boron, iron, lithium, magnesium, selenium, and sulfur were inversely associated with GBC, with the T3 versus T1 OR ranging from 0.20 to 0.69. Arsenic, boron, calcium, lithium, molybdenum, and phosphorus were negatively associated with gallstones, with the T3 versus T1 OR ranging from 0.50 to 0.75 (P < 0.05).

Conclusions: Metals were associated with both GBC and gallstones, providing cross-sectional evidence of association across the natural history of disease. Longitudinal studies are needed to evaluate the temporality of metal exposure and gallbladder diseases and to investigate the mechanisms of disease pathogenesis.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hep.30861DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6980252PMC
March 2020

Tuberculosis infection and lung adenocarcinoma: Mendelian randomization and pathway analysis of genome-wide association study data from never-smoking Asian women.

Genomics 2020 03 12;112(2):1223-1232. Epub 2019 Jul 12.

Guangdong Lung Cancer Institute, Medical Research Center and Cancer Center of Guangdong General Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, China.

We investigated whether genetic susceptibility to tuberculosis (TB) influences lung adenocarcinoma development among never-smokers using TB genome-wide association study (GWAS) results within the Female Lung Cancer Consortium in Asia. Pathway analysis with the adaptive rank truncated product method was used to assess the association between a TB-related gene-set and lung adenocarcinoma using GWAS data from 5512 lung adenocarcinoma cases and 6277 controls. The gene-set consisted of 31 genes containing known/suggestive associations with genetic variants from previous TB-GWAS. Subsequently, we followed-up with Mendelian Randomization to evaluate the association between TB and lung adenocarcinoma using three genome-wide significant variants from previous TB-GWAS in East Asians. The TB-related gene-set was associated with lung adenocarcinoma (p = 0.016). Additionally, the Mendelian Randomization showed an association between TB and lung adenocarcinoma (OR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.66, p = 0.027). Our findings support TB as a causal risk factor for lung cancer development among never-smoking Asian women.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ygeno.2019.07.008DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6954985PMC
March 2020

Associations of blood pressure categories defined by 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines with mortality in China: Pooled results from three prospective cohorts.

Eur J Prev Cardiol 2020 03 9;27(4):345-354. Epub 2019 Jul 9.

Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, China.

Background: The recent American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines for high blood pressure lowered the hypertension criteria from systolic/diastolic blood pressure (SBP/DBP) of 140/90 mmHg or greater to 130/80 mmHg or greater, while the potential impact of the change on Chinese adults remains unclear.

Design: A pooled prospective cohort analysis.

Methods: Included were 154,407 Chinese adults from three prospective cohorts, which measured blood pressure at baseline and follow-up visits, and tracked death events by linkages to medical insurance system or vital statistics registries. Cox regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Results: During a total follow-up of 1,718,089 person-years, 14,692 deaths were documented including 5086 cardiovascular deaths (1277 ischaemic heart disease and 2509 cerebrovascular disease deaths). Compared to normal blood pressure (SBP/DBP < 120/80 mmHg), newly defined stage 1 hypertension (SBP/DBP 130-139/80-89 mmHg) was associated with increased cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.16-1.69; HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.12-1.65 for ischaemic heart disease mortality; HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.18-2.00 for cerebrovascular mortality), but not with all-cause mortality (HR 1.04, 95% CI 0.89-1.21). Stage 2 hypertension (SBP/DBP ≥ 140/90 mmHg) showed significant associations with cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality, while elevated blood pressure (SBP 120-129 mmHg and DBP < 80 mmHg) showed null associations. The associations were stronger in adults younger than 65 years and adults without pre-existing cardiovascular disease compared with their counterparts ( for heterogeneity < 0.05).

Conclusions: The newly defined stage 1 hypertension is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease mortality in the Chinese population, particularly among younger adults and those without a history of cardiovascular disease.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2047487319862066DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8040133PMC
March 2020

Circulating markers of cellular immune activation in prediagnostic blood sample and lung cancer risk in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3).

Int J Cancer 2020 05 22;146(9):2394-2405. Epub 2019 Jul 22.

Department of Epidemiology, Richard M. Fairbanks School of Public Health, Indiana University, Indianapolis, IN.

Cell-mediated immune suppression may play an important role in lung carcinogenesis. We investigated the associations for circulating levels of tryptophan, kynurenine, kynurenine:tryptophan ratio (KTR), quinolinic acid (QA) and neopterin as markers of immune regulation and inflammation with lung cancer risk in 5,364 smoking-matched case-control pairs from 20 prospective cohorts included in the international Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium. All biomarkers were quantified by mass spectrometry-based methods in serum/plasma samples collected on average 6 years before lung cancer diagnosis. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for lung cancer associated with individual biomarkers were calculated using conditional logistic regression with adjustment for circulating cotinine. Compared to the lowest quintile, the highest quintiles of kynurenine, KTR, QA and neopterin were associated with a 20-30% higher risk, and tryptophan with a 15% lower risk of lung cancer (all p < 0.05). The strongest associations were seen for current smokers, where the adjusted ORs (95% CIs) of lung cancer for the highest quintile of KTR, QA and neopterin were 1.42 (1.15-1.75), 1.42 (1.14-1.76) and 1.45 (1.13-1.86), respectively. A stronger association was also seen for KTR and QA with risk of lung squamous cell carcinoma followed by adenocarcinoma, and for lung cancer diagnosed within the first 2 years after blood draw. This study demonstrated that components of the tryptophan-kynurenine pathway with immunomodulatory effects are associated with risk of lung cancer overall, especially for current smokers. Further research is needed to evaluate the role of these biomarkers in lung carcinogenesis and progression.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ijc.32555DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6960354PMC
May 2020