Publications by authors named "Vu Sinh Nam"

20 Publications

  • Page 1 of 1

Probabilistic seasonal dengue forecasting in Vietnam: A modelling study using superensembles.

PLoS Med 2021 Mar 4;18(3):e1003542. Epub 2021 Mar 4.

Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.

Background: With enough advanced notice, dengue outbreaks can be mitigated. As a climate-sensitive disease, environmental conditions and past patterns of dengue can be used to make predictions about future outbreak risk. These predictions improve public health planning and decision-making to ultimately reduce the burden of disease. Past approaches to dengue forecasting have used seasonal climate forecasts, but the predictive ability of a system using different lead times in a year-round prediction system has been seldom explored. Moreover, the transition from theoretical to operational systems integrated with disease control activities is rare.

Methods And Findings: We introduce an operational seasonal dengue forecasting system for Vietnam where Earth observations, seasonal climate forecasts, and lagged dengue cases are used to drive a superensemble of probabilistic dengue models to predict dengue risk up to 6 months ahead. Bayesian spatiotemporal models were fit to 19 years (2002-2020) of dengue data at the province level across Vietnam. A superensemble of these models then makes probabilistic predictions of dengue incidence at various future time points aligned with key Vietnamese decision and planning deadlines. We demonstrate that the superensemble generates more accurate predictions of dengue incidence than the individual models it incorporates across a suite of time horizons and transmission settings. Using historical data, the superensemble made slightly more accurate predictions (continuous rank probability score [CRPS] = 66.8, 95% CI 60.6-148.0) than a baseline model which forecasts the same incidence rate every month (CRPS = 79.4, 95% CI 78.5-80.5) at lead times of 1 to 3 months, albeit with larger uncertainty. The outbreak detection capability of the superensemble was considerably larger (69%) than that of the baseline model (54.5%). Predictions were most accurate in southern Vietnam, an area that experiences semi-regular seasonal dengue transmission. The system also demonstrated added value across multiple areas compared to previous practice of not using a forecast. We use the system to make a prospective prediction for dengue incidence in Vietnam for the period May to October 2020. Prospective predictions made with the superensemble were slightly more accurate (CRPS = 110, 95% CI 102-575) than those made with the baseline model (CRPS = 125, 95% CI 120-168) but had larger uncertainty. Finally, we propose a framework for the evaluation of probabilistic predictions. Despite the demonstrated value of our forecasting system, the approach is limited by the consistency of the dengue case data, as well as the lack of publicly available, continuous, and long-term data sets on mosquito control efforts and serotype-specific case data.

Conclusions: This study shows that by combining detailed Earth observation data, seasonal climate forecasts, and state-of-the-art models, dengue outbreaks can be predicted across a broad range of settings, with enough lead time to meaningfully inform dengue control. While our system omits some important variables not currently available at a subnational scale, the majority of past outbreaks could be predicted up to 3 months ahead. Over the next 2 years, the system will be prospectively evaluated and, if successful, potentially extended to other areas and other climate-sensitive disease systems.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003542DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7971894PMC
March 2021

Spatiotemporal and Socioeconomic Risk Factors for Dengue at the Province Level in Vietnam, 2013-2015: Clustering Analysis and Regression Model.

Trop Med Infect Dis 2020 May 19;5(2). Epub 2020 May 19.

Department of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1H 9SH, UK.

Dengue is a serious infectious disease threat in Vietnam, but its spatiotemporal and socioeconomic risk factors are not currently well understood at the province level across the country and on a multiannual scale. We explore spatial trends, clusters and outliers in dengue case counts at the province level from 2011-2015 and use this to extract spatiotemporal variables for regression analysis of the association between dengue case counts and selected spatiotemporal and socioeconomic variables from 2013-2015. Dengue in Vietnam follows anticipated spatial trends, with a potential two-year cycle of high-high clusters in some southern provinces. Small but significant associations are observed between dengue case counts and mobility, population density, a province's dengue rates the previous year, and average dengue rates two years previous in first and second order contiguous neighbours. Significant associations were not found between dengue case counts and housing pressure, access to electricity, clinician density, province-adjusted poverty rate, percentage of children below one vaccinated, or percentage of population in urban settings. These findings challenge assumptions about socioeconomic and spatiotemporal risk factors for dengue, and support national prevention targeting in Vietnam at the province level. They may also be of wider relevance for the study of other arboviruses, including Japanese encephalitis, Zika, and Chikungunya.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed5020081DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7345007PMC
May 2020

Spatiotemporal analysis of historical records (2001-2012) on dengue fever in Vietnam and development of a statistical model for forecasting risk.

PLoS One 2019 27;14(11):e0224353. Epub 2019 Nov 27.

National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Vietnam.

Background: Dengue fever is the most widespread infectious disease of humans transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. It is the leading cause of hospitalization and death in children in the Southeast Asia and western Pacific regions. We analyzed surveillance records from health centers in Vietnam collected between 2001-2012 to determine seasonal trends, develop risk maps and an incidence forecasting model.

Methods: The data were analyzed using a hierarchical spatial Bayesian model that approximates its posterior parameter distributions using the integrated Laplace approximation algorithm (INLA). Meteorological, altitude and land cover (LC) data were used as predictors. The data were grouped by province (n = 63) and month (n = 144) and divided into training (2001-2009) and validation (2010-2012) sets. Thirteen meteorological variables, 7 land cover data and altitude were considered as predictors. Only significant predictors were kept in the final multivariable model. Eleven dummy variables representing month were also fitted to account for seasonal effects. Spatial and temporal effects were accounted for using Besag-York-Mollie (BYM) and autoregressive (1) models. Their levels of significance were analyzed using deviance information criterion (DIC). The model was validated based on the Theil's coefficient which compared predicted and observed incidence estimated using the validation data. Dengue incidence predictions for 2010-2012 were also used to generate risk maps.

Results: The mean monthly dengue incidence during the period was 6.94 cases (SD 14.49) per 100,000 people. Analyses on the temporal trends of the disease showed regular seasonal epidemics that were interrupted every 3 years (specifically in July 2004, July 2007 and September 2010) by major fluctuations in incidence. Monthly mean minimum temperature, rainfall, area under urban settlement/build-up areas and altitude were significant in the final model. Minimum temperature and rainfall had non-linear effects and lagging them by two months provided a better fitting model compared to using unlagged variables. Forecasts for the validation period closely mirrored the observed data and accurately captured the troughs and peaks of dengue incidence trajectories. A favorable Theil's coefficient of inequality of 0.22 was generated.

Conclusions: The study identified temperature, rainfall, altitude and area under urban settlement as being significant predictors of dengue incidence. The statistical model fitted the data well based on Theil's coefficient of inequality, and risk maps generated from its predictions identified most of the high-risk provinces throughout the country.
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http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0224353PLOS
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6881000PMC
April 2020

Seasonal patterns of dengue fever and associated climate factors in 4 provinces in Vietnam from 1994 to 2013.

BMC Infect Dis 2017 03 20;17(1):218. Epub 2017 Mar 20.

International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya.

Background: In Vietnam, dengue fever (DF) is still a leading cause of hospitalization. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the seasonality and association with climate factors (temperature and precipitation) on the incidences of DF in four provinces where the highest incidence rates were observed from 1994 to 2013 in Vietnam.

Methods: Incidence rates (per 100,000) were calculated on a monthly basis from during the study period. The seasonal-decomposition procedure based on loess (STL) was used in order to assess the trend and seasonality of DF. In addition, a seasonal cycle subseries (SCS) plot and univariate negative binomial regression (NBR) model were used to evaluate the monthly variability with statistical analysis. Lastly, a generalized estimating equation (GEE) was used to assess the relationship between monthly incidence rates and weather factors (temperature and precipitation).

Results: We found that increased incidence rates were observed in the second half of each year (from May through December) which is the rainy season in each province. In Hanoi, the final model showed that 1 °C rise of temperature corresponded to an increase of 13% in the monthly incidence rate of DF. In Khanh Hoa, the final model displayed that 1 °C increase in temperature corresponded to an increase of 17% while 100 mm increase in precipitation corresponded to an increase of 11% of DF incidence rate. For Ho Chi Minh City, none of variables were significant in the model. In An Giang, the final model showed that 100 mm increase of precipitation in the preceding and same months corresponded to an increase of 30% and 22% of DF incidence rate.

Conclusion: Our findings provide insight into understanding the seasonal pattern and associated climate risk factors.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12879-017-2326-8DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5359841PMC
March 2017

Climate Variability and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Ba Tri District, Ben Tre Province, Vietnam during 2004-2014.

AIMS Public Health 2016 26;3(4):769-780. Epub 2016 Sep 26.

National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Vietnam.

Background: Currently, dengue fever/dengue hemorrhagic fever (DF/DHF) is an important public health challenge in many areas, including the Ba Tri District, Ben Tre Province, Vietnam.

Methods And Aim: This study was conducted in 2015 using a retrospective secondary data analysis on monthly data of DF/DHF cases and climate conditions from 2004-2014 in Ba Tri District, which aimed to explore the relationship between DF/DHF and climate variables.

Results: During the period of 2004-2014, there were 5728 reported DF/DHF cases and five deaths. The disease occurred year round, with peaked from May to October and the highest number of cases occurred in June and July. There were strong correlations between monthly DF/DHF cases within that period with average rainfall ( = 0.70), humidity ( = 0.59), mosquito density ( = 0.82), and Breteau index ( = 0.81). A moderate association was observed between the monthly average number of DF/DHF cases and the average temperature ( = 0.37). The monthly DF/DHF cases were also moderately correlated with the Aedes mosquito density.

Conclusions And Recommendations: Local health authorities need to monitor DF/DHF cases at the beginning of epidemic period, starting from April and to apply timely disease prevention measures to avoid the spreading of the disease in the following months. More vector control efforts should be implemented in March and April, just before the rainy season, which can help to reduce the vector density and the epidemic risk. A larger scale study using national data and for a longer period of time should be undertaken to thoroughly describe the correlation between climate variability and DF/DHF cases as well as for modeling and building projection model for the disease in the coming years. This can play an important role for active prevention of DF/DHF in Vietnam under the impacts of climate change and weather variability.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.3934/publichealth.2016.4.769DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5690404PMC
September 2016

Field evaluation of the establishment potential of wMelPop Wolbachia in Australia and Vietnam for dengue control.

Parasit Vectors 2015 Oct 28;8:563. Epub 2015 Oct 28.

Bio21 Institute and School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia.

Background: Introduced Wolbachia bacteria can influence the susceptibility of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes to arboviral infections as well as having detrimental effects on host fitness. Previous field trials demonstrated that the wMel strain of Wolbachia effectively and durably invades Ae. aegypti populations. Here we report on trials of a second strain, wMelPop-PGYP Wolbachia, in field sites in northern Australia (Machans Beach and Babinda) and central Vietnam (Tri Nguyen, Hon Mieu Island), each with contrasting natural Ae. aegypti densities.

Methods: Mosquitoes were released at the adult or pupal stages for different lengths of time at the sites depending on changes in Wolbachia frequency as assessed through PCR assays of material collected through Biogents-Sentinel (BG-S) traps and ovitraps. Adult numbers were also monitored through BG-S traps. Changes in Wolbachia frequency were compared across hamlets or house blocks.

Results: Releases of adult wMelPop-Ae. aegypti resulted in the transient invasion of wMelPop in all three field sites. Invasion at the Australian sites was heterogeneous, reflecting a slower rate of invasion in locations where background mosquito numbers were high. In contrast, invasion across Tri Nguyen was relatively uniform. After cessation of releases, the frequency of wMelPop declined in all sites, most rapidly in Babinda and Tri Nguyen. Within Machans Beach the rate of decrease varied among areas, and wMelPop was detected for several months in an area with a relatively low mosquito density.

Conclusions: These findings highlight challenges associated with releasing Wolbachia-Ae. aegypti combinations with low fitness, albeit strong virus interference properties, as a means of sustainable control of dengue virus transmission.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13071-015-1174-xDOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4625535PMC
October 2015

Seroprevalence survey of avian influenza A(H5N1) among live poultry market workers in northern Viet Nam, 2011.

Western Pac Surveill Response J 2014 Oct-Dec;5(4):21-6. Epub 2014 Nov 18.

National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Viet Nam .

Objective: Highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) is endemic in poultry in Viet Nam. The country has experienced the third highest number of human infections with influenza A(H5N1) in the world. A study in Hanoi in 2001, before the epizootic that was identified in 2003, found influenza A(H5N1) specific antibodies in 4% of poultry market workers (PMWs). We conducted a seroprevalence survey to determine the seroprevalence of antibodies to influenza A(H5N1) among PMWs in Hanoi, Thaibinh and Thanhhoa provinces.

Methods: We selected PMWs from five markets, interviewed them and collected blood samples. These were then tested using a horse haemagglutination inhibition assay and a microneutralization assay with all three clades of influenza A(H5N1) viruses that have circulated in Viet Nam since 2004.

Results: The overall seroprevalence was 6.1% (95% confidence interval: 4.6-8.3). The highest proportion (7.2%) was found in PMWs in Hanoi, and the majority of seropositive subjects (70.3%) were slaughterers or sellers of poultry.

Discussion: The continued circulation and evolution of influenza A(H5N1) requires comprehensive surveillance of both human and animal sites throughout the country with follow-up studies on PMWs to estimate the risk of avian-human transmission of influenza A(H5N1) in Viet Nam.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.5365/WPSAR.2014.5.2.006DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4318972PMC
September 2015

Community-based control of Aedes aegypti by using Mesocyclops in southern Vietnam.

Am J Trop Med Hyg 2012 May;86(5):850-859

We previously reported a new community-based mosquito control strategy that resulted in elimination of Aedes aegypti (Linn.) in 40 of 46 communes in northern and central Vietnam, and with annual recurrent total costs (direct and indirect) of only $0.28-$0.89 international dollars per person. This control strategy was extended to four provinces in southern Vietnam in Long An and Hau Giang (2004-2007) and to Long An, Ben Tre, and Vinh Long (2005-2010). In a total of 14 communes with 124,743 residents, the mean ± SD of adult female Ae. aegypti was reduced from 0.93 ± 0.62 to 0.06 ± 0.09, and the reduction of immature Ae. aegypti averaged 98.8%. By the final survey, no adults could be collected in 6 of 14 communes, and one commune, Binh Thanh, also had no immature forms. Although the community-based programs also involved community education and clean-up campaigns, the prevalence of Mesocyclops in large water storage containers > 50 liters increased from 12.77 ± 8.39 to 75.69 ± 9.17% over periods of 15-45 months. At the conclusion of the study, no confirmed dengue cases were detected in four of the five communes for which diagnostic serologic analysis was performed. The rate of progress was faster in communes that were added in stages to the program but the reason for this finding was unclear. At the completion of the formal project, sustainability funds were set up to provide each commune with the financial means to ensure that community-based dengue control activities continued.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.2012.11-0466DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3335693PMC
May 2012

Quantifying the emergence of dengue in Hanoi, Vietnam: 1998-2009.

PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2011 Sep 27;5(9):e1322. Epub 2011 Sep 27.

Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Unit, Hanoi, Vietnam.

Background: An estimated 2.4 billion people live in areas at risk of dengue transmission, therefore the factors determining the establishment of endemic dengue in areas where transmission suitability is marginal is of considerable importance. Hanoi, Vietnam is such an area, and following a large dengue outbreak in 2009, we set out to determine if dengue is emerging in Hanoi.

Methods And Principal Findings: We undertook a temporal and spatial analysis of 25,983 dengue cases notified in Hanoi between 1998 and 2009. Age standardized incidence rates, standardized age of infection, and Standardized Morbidity Ratios (SMR) were calculated. A quasi-Poisson regression model was used to determine if dengue incidence was increasing over time. Wavelet analysis was used to explore the periodicity of dengue transmission and the association with climate variables. After excluding the two major outbreak years of 1998 and 2009 and correcting for changes in population age structure, we identified a significant annual increase in the incidence of dengue cases over the period 1999-2008 (incidence rate ratio  =  1.38, 95% confidence interval  =  1.20-1.58, p value  =  0.002). The age of notified dengue cases in Hanoi is high, with a median age of 23 years (mean 26.3 years). After adjusting for changes in population age structure, there was no statistically significant change in the median or mean age of dengue cases over the period studied. Districts in the central, highly urban, area of Hanoi have the highest incidence of dengue (SMR>3).

Conclusions: Hanoi is a low dengue transmission setting where dengue incidence has been increasing year on year since 1999. This trend needs to be confirmed with serological surveys, followed by studies to determine the underlying drivers of this emergence. Such studies can provide insights into the biological, demographic, and environmental changes associated with vulnerability to the establishment of endemic dengue.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001322DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3181236PMC
September 2011

Abundance and prevalence of Aedes aegypti immatures and relationships with household water storage in rural areas in southern Viet Nam.

Int Health 2011 Jun;3(2):115-25

National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, 1 Yersin Street, Hanoi, Viet Nam.

Since 2000, the Government of Viet Nam has committed to provide rural communities with increased access to safe water through a variety of household water supply schemes (wells, ferrocement tanks and jars) and piped water schemes. One possible, unintended consequence of these schemes is the concomitant increase in water containers that may serve as habitats for dengue mosquito immatures, principally Aedes aegypti. To assess these possible impacts we undertook detailed household surveys of Ae. aegypti immatures, water storage containers and various socioeconomic factors in three rural communes in southern Viet Nam. Positive relationships between the numbers of household water storage containers and the prevalence and abundance of Ae. aegypti immatures were found. Overall, water storage containers accounted for 92-97% and 93-96% of the standing crops of III/IV instars and pupae, respectively. Interestingly, households with higher socioeconomic levels had significantly higher numbers of water storage containers and therefore greater risk of Ae. aegypti infestation. Even after provision of piped water to houses, householders continued to store water in containers and there was no observed decrease in water storage container abundance in these houses, compared to those that relied entirely on stored water. These findings highlight the householders' concerns about the limited availability of water and their strong behavoural patterns associated with storage of water. We conclude that household water storage container availability is a major risk factor for infestation with Ae. aegypti immatures, and that recent investment in rural water supply infrastructure are unlikely to mitigate this risk, at least in the short term.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.inhe.2010.11.002DOI Listing
June 2011

Sustainability and cost of a community-based strategy against Aedes aegypti in northern and central Vietnam.

Am J Trop Med Hyg 2010 May;82(5):822-30

Australian Centre for International and Tropical Health, Queensland Institute of Medical Research, Brisbane Queensland, Australia.

We previously reported a new community-based mosquito control that resulted in the elimination of Aedes aegypti in 40 of 46 communes in northern and central Vietnam. During 2007 and 2008, we revisited Nam Dinh and Khanh Hoa provinces in northern and central Vietnam, respectively, to evaluate whether or not these programs were still being maintained 7 years and 4.5 years after formal project activities had ceased, respectively. Using a previously published sustainability framework, we compared 13 criteria from Tho Nghiep commune in Nam Dinh where the local community had adopted our community-based project model using Mesocyclops from 2001. These data were compared against a formal project commune, Xuan Phong, where our successful intervention activities had ceased in 2000 and four communes operating under the National Dengue Control Program with data available. In Khanh Hoa province, we compared 2008 data at Ninh Xuan commune with data at project completion in 2003 and benchmarked these, where possible, against an untreated control commune, Ninh Binh, where few control activities had been undertaken. The three communes where the above community-based strategy had been adopted were rated as well-sustained with annual recurrent total costs (direct and indirect) of $0.28-0.89 international dollars per person.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.2010.09-0503DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2861387PMC
May 2010

Characterizing the Aedes aegypti population in a Vietnamese village in preparation for a Wolbachia-based mosquito control strategy to eliminate dengue.

PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2009 Nov 24;3(11):e552. Epub 2009 Nov 24.

Queensland Institute of Medical Research and Australian Centre for International and Tropical Health, Brisbane, Australia.

Background: A life-shortening strain of the obligate intracellular bacteria Wolbachia, called wMelPop, is seen as a promising new tool for the control of Aedes aegypti. However, developing a vector control strategy based on the release of mosquitoes transinfected with wMelPop requires detailed knowledge of the demographics of the target population.

Methodology/principal Findings: In Tri Nguyen village (611 households) on Hon Mieu Island in central Vietnam, we conducted nine quantitative entomologic surveys over 14 months to determine if Ae. aegypti populations were spatially and temporally homogenous, and to estimate population size. There was no obvious relationship between mosquito (larval, pupal or adult) abundance and temperature and rainfall, and no area of the village supported consistently high numbers of mosquitoes. In almost all surveys, key premises produced high numbers of Ae. aegypti. However, these premises were not consistent between surveys. For an intervention based on a single release of wMelPop-infected Ae. aegypti, release ratios of infected to uninfected adult mosquitoes of all age classes are estimated to be 1.8-6.7ratio1 for gravid females (and similarly aged males) or teneral adults, respectively. We calculated that adult female mosquito abundance in Tri Nguyen village could range from 1.1 to 43.3 individuals of all age classes per house. Thus, an intervention could require the release of 2-78 wMelPop-infected gravid females and similarly aged males per house, or 7-290 infected teneral female and male mosquitoes per house.

Conclusions/significance: Given the variability we encountered, this study highlights the importance of multiple entomologic surveys when evaluating the spatial structure of a vector population or estimating population size. If a single release of wMelPop-infected Ae. aegypti were to occur when wild Ae. aegypti abundance was at its maximum, a preintervention control program would be necessary to ensure that there was no net increase in mosquito numbers. However, because of the short-term temporal heterogeneity, the inconsistent spatial structure and the impact of transient key premises that we observed, the feasibility of multiple releases of smaller numbers of mosquitoes also needs to be considered. In either case, fewer wMelPop-infected mosquitoes would then need to be released, which will likely be more acceptable to householders.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0000552DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2780318PMC
November 2009

Isolation and molecular characterization of Banna virus from mosquitoes, Vietnam.

Emerg Infect Dis 2008 Aug;14(8):1276-9

Department of Virology, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki City, Japan.

We isolated and characterized a Banna virus from mosquitoes in Vietnam; 5 strains were isolated from field-caught mosquitoes at various locations; Banna virus was previously isolated from encephalitis patients in Yunnan, China, in 1987. Together, these findings suggest widespread distribution of this virus throughout Southeast Asia.
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http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2600385PMC
http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid1408.080100DOI Listing
August 2008

Influence of the distribution of host species on adult abundance of Japanese encephalitis vectors Culex vishnui subgroup and Culex gelidus in a rice-cultivating village in northern Vietnam.

Am J Trop Med Hyg 2008 Jan;78(1):159-68

Department of Vector Ecology and Environment, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan; Entomology Laboratory, National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Vietnam.

A field study was conducted in a village in northern Vietnam to investigate how host distribution influences Japanese encephalitis (JE) vector abundance. Indoor and outdoor collections were conducted from 50 compounds. We collected three JE vector species--Culex tritaeniorhynchus and Culex vishnui that comprised the Culex vishnui group, and Culex gelidus. Spatial autocorrelation was not observed in the mosquito assemblies at any scale larger than the house compounds. Multivariate analyses revealed that the Cx. gelidus density correlated positively with both the host proximity to the breeding sites and cattle density; however, the Cx. vishnui subgroup density correlated positively only with cattle density. These results showed that the number of cattle in a compound influenced the JE vector abundance in that compound, and the abundance of Cx. gelidus, not of the Cx. vishnui subgroup, was affected by the host proximity to the breeding sites in the village.
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January 2008

Critical evaluation of quantitative sampling methods for Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) immatures in water storage containers in Vietnam.

J Med Entomol 2007 Mar;44(2):192-204

Queensland Institute of Medical Research, Post Office Royal Brisbane Hospital, Brisbane, Australia.

In response to an identified paucity of information on the size and composition of immature Aedes aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae) populations in large field containers, we assessed net sampling and pumping/sieving methods for estimating and enumerating third (III)/fourth (IV) instar and pupal populations. Sweep net detection thresholds (number above which > or = 90% chance of a positive sample) were < or = 28 immatures for seven different container types (115-3000 liter jars and tanks) in the laboratory, and mean recovery percentages varied by container type (6.15-41.29 and 7.39-33.10% for III/IV instars and pupae, respectively). A pumping method or hand bailing was applied in the field for the collection of III/IV instars and pupae from 406 receptacles, of which 343 had been previously sampled via a five-sweep netting technique. Larvae were 9.30 times more prevalent than pupae, and abundance varied by container type with means of 36-537 III/IV instars and 6-53 pupae per receptacle. Sweep netting for III/IV instars effectively identified 86.2% of Ae. aegypti-positive containers, whereas sampling for pupae detected only 43.1% of positive containers. When conversion factors (inverse of laboratory recovery percentages) were applied to field net sampling data, estimates of container populations were more accurate for III/IV instars than pupae (maximum R2 = 0.610 and 0.328, respectively); however, the relationship between immature abundance and emergent adult populations remains to be defined.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1603/0022-2585(2007)44[192:ceoqsm]2.0.co;2DOI Listing
March 2007

Elimination of dengue by community programs using Mesocyclops(Copepoda) against Aedes aegypti in central Vietnam.

Am J Trop Med Hyg 2005 Jan;72(1):67-73

National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Vietnam.

From September 2000 to June 2003, a community-based program for dengue control using local predacious copepods of the genus Mesocyclops was conducted in three rural communes in the central Vietnam provinces of Quang Nam, Quang Ngai, and Khanh Hoa. Post-project, three subsequent entomologic surveys were conducted until March 2004. The number of households and residents in the communes were 5,913 and 27,167, respectively, and dengue notification rates for these communes from 1996 were as high as 2,418.5 per 100,000 persons. Following knowledge, attitude, and practice evaluations, surveys of water storage containers indicated that Mesocyclops spp. already occurred in 3-17% and that large tanks up to 2,000 liters, 130-300-liter jars, wells, and some 220-liter metal drums were the most productive habitats for Aedes aegypti. With technical support, the programs were driven by communal management committees, health collaborators, schoolteachers, and pupils. From quantitative estimates of the standing crop of third and fourth instars from 100 households, Ae. aegypti were reduced by approximately 90% by year 1, 92.3-98.6% by year 2, and Ae. aegypti immature forms had been eliminated from two of three communes by June 2003. Similarly, from resting adult collections from 100 households, densities were reduced to 0-1 per commune. By March 2004, two communes with no larvae had small numbers but the third was negative; one adult was collected in each of two communes while one became negative. Absolute estimates of third and fourth instars at the three intervention communes and one left untreated had significant correlations (P = 0.009-< 0.001) with numbers of adults aspirated from inside houses on each of 15 survey periods. By year 1, the incidence of dengue disease in the treated communes was reduced by 76.7% compared with non-intervention communes within the same districts, and no dengue was evident in 2002 and 2003, compared with 112.8 and 14.4 cases per 100,000 at district level. Since we had similar success in northern Vietnam from 1998 to 2000, this study demonstrates that this control model is broadly acceptable and achievable at community level but vigilance is required post-project to prevent reinfestation.
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January 2005

New strategy against Aedes aegypti in Vietnam.

Lancet 2005 Feb 12-18;365(9459):613-7

Australian Centre for International & Tropical Health & Nutrition, Queensland Institute of Medical Research, Australia.

The container-breeding mosquito, Aedes aegypti, is the major global vector of dengue viruses, causing around 50 million infections annually. We have developed a mosquito control strategy, incorporating four elements: (1) a combined vertical and horizontal approach that depends on community understanding; (2) prioritised control according to the larval productivity of major habitat types; (3) use of predacious copepods of the genus Mesocyclops as a biological control agent; delivered by (4) community activities of health volunteers, schools, and the public. We have previously reported that, from 1998 to 2003, community-based vector control had resulted in A aegypti elimination in six of nine communes, with only small numbers of larvae detected in the others. Here, we report eradication in two further communes and, as a result of local expansion after the project in three northern provinces, elimination from 32 of 37 communes (309730 people). As a result, no dengue cases have been detected in any commune since 2002. These findings suggest that this strategy is sustainable in Vietnam and applicable where the major sources of A aegypti are large water storage containers.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(05)17913-6DOI Listing
February 2005

Shift in Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) genotype circulating in northern Vietnam: implications for frequent introductions of JEV from Southeast Asia to East Asia.

J Gen Virol 2004 Jun;85(Pt 6):1625-1631

CREST, Japan Science and Technology Corporation, Saitama 332-0012, Japan.

This study analyses the evolutionary relatedness of 16 Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) isolates (nine from Vietnam and seven from Japan) to previously published JEV strains using E gene sequence data. Vietnamese and Japanese strains isolated between 1986 and 1990 were found to cluster in genotype 3. However, more recent Vietnamese and Japanese strains isolated between 1995 and 2002 grouped within genotype 1, now a dominant though previously unreported genotype in Vietnam. In addition, in this study, strains isolated between 1995 and 2002 were more closely related to those isolated in the 1990s than to the older genotype 1 strains. Recently, the introduction of JEV genotype 1 into Japan and Korea has also been reported. Hence this genotype shift phenomenon may be occurring throughout all East Asia. Further studies on JEV ecology are needed to clarify the mechanism of JEV genotype 1 spread to new territories.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1099/vir.0.79797-0DOI Listing
June 2004

Control of aedes vectors of dengue in three provinces of Vietnam by use of Mesocyclops (Copepoda) and community-based methods validated by entomologic, clinical, and serological surveillance.

Am J Trop Med Hyg 2002 Jan;66(1):40-8

Queensland Institute of Medical Research and University of Queensland Tropical Health Program, Brisbane, Australia.

We describe remarkable success in controlling dengue vectors, Aedes aegypti (L.) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse), in 6 communes with 11,675 households and 49,647 people in the northern provinces of Haiphong, Hung Yen, and Nam Dinh in Vietnam. The communes were selected for high-frequency use of large outdoor concrete tanks and wells. These were found to be the source of 49.6-98.4% of Ae. aegypti larvae, which were amenable to treatment with local Mesocyclops, mainly M. woutersi Van der Velde, M. aspericornis (Daday) and M. thermocyclopoides Harada. Knowledge, attitude, and practice surveys were performed to determine whether the communities viewed dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever as a serious health threat; to determine their knowledge of the etiology, attitudes, and practices regarding control methods including Mesocyclops; and to determine their receptivity to various information methods. On the basis of the knowledge, attitude, and practice data, the community-based dengue control program comprised a system of local leaders, health volunteer teachers, and schoolchildren, supported by health professionals. Recycling of discards for economic gain was enhanced, where appropriate, and this, plus 37 clean-up campaigns, removed small containers unsuitable for Mesocyclops treatment. A previously successful eradication at Phan Boi village (Hung Yen province) was extended to 7 other villages forming Di Su commune (1,750 households) in the current study. Complete control was also achieved in Nghia Hiep (Hung Yen province) and in Xuan Phong (Nam Dinh province); control efficacy was > or = 99.7% in the other 3 communes (Lac Vien in Haiphong, Nghia Dong, and Xuan Kien in Nam Dinh). Although tanks and wells were the key container types of Ae. aegypti productivity, discarded materials were the source of 51% of the standing crop of Ae. albopictus. Aedes albopictus larvae were eliminated from the 3 Nam Dinh communes, and 86-98% control was achieved in the other 3 communes. Variable dengue attack rates made the clinical and serological comparison of control and untreated communes problematic, but these data indicate that clinical surveillance by itself is inadequate to monitor dengue transmission.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.2002.66.40DOI Listing
January 2002