Publications by authors named "Victor Adekanmbi"

21 Publications

  • Page 1 of 1

Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning.

PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021 Jul 28;15(7):e0008824. Epub 2021 Jul 28.

Department of Health Policy Planning and Management, University of Health and Allied Sciences, Ho, Ghana.

Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0·71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50·2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5 × 5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008824DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8318275PMC
July 2021

Antibiotic use and deprivation: an analysis of Welsh primary care antibiotic prescribing data by socioeconomic status.

J Antimicrob Chemother 2020 08;75(8):2363-2371

Division of Population Medicine, School of Medicine, Cardiff University, Cardiff CF14 4YS, UK.

Objectives: To examine the association between socioeconomic status (SES) and antibiotic prescribing, controlling for the presence of common chronic conditions and other potential confounders and variation amongst GP practices and clusters.

Methods: This was an electronic cohort study using linked GP and Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD) data. The setting was GP practices contributing to the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank 2013-17. The study involved 2.9 million patients nested within 339 GP practices, nested within 67 GP clusters.

Results: Approximately 9 million oral antibiotics were prescribed between 2013 and 2017. Antibiotic prescribing rates were associated with WIMD quintile, with more deprived populations receiving more antibiotics. This association persisted after controlling for patient demographics, smoking, chronic conditions and clustering by GP practice and cluster, with those in the most deprived quintile receiving 18% more antibiotic prescriptions than those in the least deprived quintile (incidence rate ratio = 1.18; 95% CI = 1.181-1.187). We found substantial unexplained variation in antibiotic prescribing rates between GP practices [intra-cluster correlation (ICC) = 47.31%] and GP clusters (ICC = 12.88%) in the null model, which reduced to ICCs of 3.50% and 0.85% for GP practices and GP clusters, respectively, in the final adjusted model.

Conclusions: Antibiotic prescribing in primary care is increased in areas of greater SES deprivation and this is not explained by differences in the presence of common chronic conditions or smoking status. Substantial unexplained variation in prescribing supports the need for ongoing antimicrobial stewardship initiatives.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jac/dkaa168DOI Listing
August 2020

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017.

Nature 2019 10 16;574(7778):353-358. Epub 2019 Oct 16.

School of Health Sciences, Madda Walabu University, Bale Goba, Ethiopia.

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1545-0DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6800389PMC
October 2019

Prevalence of hypertension among patients aged 50 and older living with human immunodeficiency virus.

Medicine (Baltimore) 2019 Apr;98(15):e15024

International Research Centre of Excellence, Institute of Human Virology, Nigeria, Maina Court, Herbert Macaulay Way, Central Business District, Abuja, Nigeria.

Background: Hypertension is one of the common medical conditions observed among patients aged 50 years and elder living with HIV (EPLWH) and to date no systematic review has estimated its global prevalence.

Purpose: To conduct a systematic review to estimate the global prevalence of hypertension among EPLWH.

Data Sources: PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Library, and Global Health databases for relevant publications up till May 25, 2018.

Study Selection: Observational studies (cohort or cross-sectional studies) that estimated the prevalence of hypertension among EPLWH.

Data Extraction: Required data were extracted independently by three reviewers and the main outcome was hypertension prevalence among EPLWH.

Data Synthesis: The 24 (n = 29,987) eligible studies included were conducted in North America, Europe, Africa, and Asia. A low level bias threat to the estimated hypertension prevalence rates was observed. The global prevalence of hypertension among EPLWH was estimated at 42.0% (95% CI 29.6%-55.4%), I = 100%. The subgroup analysis showed that North America has the highest prevalence of hypertension 50.2% (95% CI 29.2% -71.2%) followed by Europe 37.8% (95% CI 30.7%-45.7%) sub-Saharan Africa 31.9% (95% CI 18.5% -49.2%) and Asia 31.0% (95% CI 26.1%-36.3%). We found the mean age of the participants explaining a considerable part of variation in hypertension prevalence.

Conclusion: This study demonstrated that two out of five EPLWH are hypertensive. North America appears to have the highest prevalence of hypertension followed by Europe, sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Asia respectively. Findings from this study can be utilized to integrate hypertension management to HIV management package. (Registration number: CRD42018103069).
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/MD.0000000000015024DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6485838PMC
April 2019

Evaluating effects of recent changes in NHS resource allocation policy on inequalities in amenable mortality in England, 2007-2014: time-series analysis.

J Epidemiol Community Health 2019 02 23;73(2):162-167. Epub 2018 Nov 23.

Department of Public Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.

Background: Health investment in England post-2010 has increased at lower rates than previously, with proportionally less being allocated to deprived areas. This study seeks to explore the impact of this on inequalities in amenable mortality between local areas.

Methods: We undertook a time-series analysis across 324 lower-tier local authorities in England, evaluating the impact of changes in funding allocations to health commissioners from 2007 to 2014 on spatial inequalities in age-standardised under-75 mortality rates for conditions amenable to healthcare for men and women, adjusting for trends in household income, unemployment and time-trends.

Results: More deprived areas received proportionally more funding between 2007 and 2014, though the reorganisation of commissioning in 2012 stalled this. Funding increases to more deprived local areas accounted for a statistically significant reduction in inequalities in male amenable mortality between local areas of 13 deaths per 100 000 (95% CI 2.5 to 25.9). Funding changes were associated with a reduction in inequalities in female amenable mortality of 7.0 per 100,000, though this finding did not reach significance (p=0.09).

Conclusion: Current National Health Service (NHS) resource allocation policy in England appears to be contributing to a convergence in health outcomes between affluent and deprived areas. However, careful surveillance is needed to evaluate whether diminished allocations to more deprived areas in recent years and reduced NHS investment as a whole is impacting adversely on inequalities between groups.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/jech-2018-211141DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6352397PMC
February 2019

Addressing the under-reporting of adverse drug reactions in public health programs controlling HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria: A prospective cohort study.

PLoS One 2018 22;13(8):e0200810. Epub 2018 Aug 22.

Special Program for Research in Tropical Diseases, World Health Organization (TDR), Geneva, Switzerland.

Background: Adverse Drug Reactions (ADRs) are a major clinical and public health problem world-wide. The prompt reporting of suspected ADRs to regulatory authorities to activate drug safety surveillance and regulation appears to be the most pragmatic measure for addressing the problem. This paper evaluated a pharmacovigilance (PV) training model that was designed to improve the reporting of ADRs in public health programs treating the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), Tuberculosis (TB) and Malaria.

Methods: A Structured Pharmacovigilance and Training Initiative (SPHAR-TI) model based on the World Health Organization accredited Structured Operational Research and Training Initiative (SOR-IT) model was designed and implemented over a period of 12 months. A prospective cohort design was deployed to evaluate the outcomes of the model. The primary outcomes were knowledge gained and Individual Case Safety Reports (ICSR) (completed adverse drug reactions monitoring forms) submitted, while the secondary outcomes were facility based Pharmacovigilance Committees activated and health facility healthcare workers trained by the participants.

Results: Fifty-five (98%) participants were trained and followed up for 12 months. More than three quarter of the participants have never received training on pharmacovigilance prior to the course. Yet, a significant gain in knowledge was observed after the participants completed a comprehensive training for six days. In only seven months, 3000 ICSRs (with 100% completeness) were submitted, 2,937 facility based healthcare workers trained and 46 Pharmacovigilance Committees activated by the participants. Overall, a 273% increase in ICSRs submission to the National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC) was observed.

Conclusion: Participants gained knowledge, which tended to increase the reporting of ADRs. The SPHAR-TI model could be an option for strengthening the continuous reporting of ADRs in public health programs in resource limited settings.
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http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0200810PLOS
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6104922PMC
February 2019

Epidemiology of prediabetes and diabetes in Namibia, Africa: A multilevel analysis.

J Diabetes 2019 Feb 28;11(2):161-172. Epub 2018 Aug 28.

Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Informatics, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA.

Background: Diabetes is a leading cause of progressive morbidity and early mortality worldwide. Little is known about the burden of diabetes and prediabetes in Namibia, a Sub-Saharan African (SSA) country that is undergoing a demographic transition.

Methods: We estimated the prevalence and correlates of diabetes (defined as fasting [capillary] blood glucose [FBG] ≥126 mg/dL) and prediabetes (defined by World Health Organization [WHO] and American Diabetes Association [ADA] criteria as FBG 110-125 and 100-125 mg/dL, respectively) in a random sample of 3278 participants aged 35-64 years from the 2013 Namibia Demographic and Health Survey.

Results: The prevalence of diabetes was 5.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.2-6.2), with no evidence of gender differences (P = 0.45). The prevalence of prediabetes was 6.8% (95% CI 5.8-8.0) using WHO criteria and 20.1% (95% CI 18.4-21.9) using ADA criteria. Male sex, older age, higher body mass index (BMI), and occupation independently increased the odds of diabetes in Namibia, whereas higher BMI was associated with a higher odds of prediabetes, and residing in a household categorized as "middle wealth index" was associated with a lower odds of prediabetes (adjusted odds ratio 0.71; 95% credible interval 0.46-0.99). There was significant clustering of prediabetes and diabetes at the community level.

Conclusions: One in five adult Namibians has prediabetes based on ADA criteria. Resources should be invested at the community level to promote efforts to prevent the progression of this disease and its complications.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1753-0407.12829DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6318039PMC
February 2019

General practitioners providing non-urgent care in emergency department: a natural experiment.

BMJ Open 2018 05 10;8(5):e019736. Epub 2018 May 10.

Division of Health Sciences, Warwick Medical School, The University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.

Objective: To examine whether care provided by general practitioners (GPs) to non-urgent patients in the emergency department differs significantly from care provided by usual accident and emergency (A&E) staff in terms of process outcomes and A&E clinical quality indicators.

Design: Propensity score matched cohort study.

Setting: GPs in A&E colocated within the University Hospitals Coventry and Warwickshire NHS Trust between May 2015 and March 2016.

Participants: Non-urgent attendances visits to the A&E department.

Main Outcomes: Process outcomes (any investigation, any blood investigation, any radiological investigation, any intervention, admission and referrals) and A&E clinical indicators (spent 4 hours plus, left without being seen and 7-day reattendance).

Results: A total of 5426 patients seen by GPs in A&E were matched with 10 852 patients seen by emergency physicians (ratio 1:2). Compared with standard care in A&E, GPs in A&E significantly: admitted fewer patients (risk ratio (RR) 0.28, 95% CI 0.25 to 0.31), referred fewer patients to other specialists (RR 0.31, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.40), ordered fewer radiological investigations (RR 0.38, 95% CI 0.34 to 0.42), ordered fewer blood tests (0.57, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.61) and ordered fewer investigations (0.93, 95% CI 0.90 to 0.96). However, they intervened more, offered more primary care follow-up (RR 1.78, 95% CI 1.67 to 1.89) and referred more patients to outpatient and other A&E clinics (RR 2.29, 95% CI 2.10 to 2.49). Patients seen by GPs in A&E were on average less likely to spend 4 hours plus in A&E (RR 0.37, 95% CI 0.30 to 0.45) compared with standard care in A&E. There was no difference in reattendance after 7 days (RR 0.96, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.09).

Conclusion: GPs in A&E tended to manage self-reporting minor cases with fewer resources than standard care in A&E, without increasing reattendance rates.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2017-019736DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5950695PMC
May 2018

Integrating community pharmacy into community based anti-retroviral therapy program: A pilot implementation in Abuja, Nigeria.

PLoS One 2018 10;13(1):e0190286. Epub 2018 Jan 10.

Institute of Human Virology, Nigeria, Maina Court, Herbert Macaulay Way, Central Business District, Abuja, Nigeria.

Background: The landscape of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) epidemic control is shifting with the United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 90-90-90 benchmarks for epidemic control. Community-based Antiretroviral Therapy (CART) models have improved treatment uptake and demonstrated good clinical outcomes. We assessed the feasibility of integrating community pharmacy as a task shift structure for differentiated community ART in Abuja-Nigeria.

Methods: Stable patients on first line ART regimens from public health facilities were referred to community pharmacies in different locations within the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja for prescription refills and treatment maintenance. Bio-demographic and clinical data were collected from February 25, 2016 to May 31st, 2017 and descriptive statistics analysis applied. The outcomes of measure were prescription refill and patient retention in care at the community pharmacy.

Results: Almost 10% of stable patients on treatment were successfully devolved from eight health facilities to ten community pharmacies. Median age of the participants was 35 years [interquartile range (IQR); 30, 41] with married women in the majority. Prescription refill was 100% and almost all the participants (99.3%) were retained in care after they were devolved to the community pharmacies. Only one participant was lost-to-follow-up as a result of death.

Conclusion: Excellent prescription refill and high retention in care with very low loss-to-follow-up were associated with the community pharmacy model. The use of community pharmacy for community ART is feasible in Nigeria. We recommend the scale up of the model in all the 36 states of Nigeria.
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http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0190286PLOS
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5761864PMC
February 2018

Contextual factors associated with health care service utilization for children with acute childhood illnesses in Nigeria.

PLoS One 2017 15;12(3):e0173578. Epub 2017 Mar 15.

Warwick-Centre for Applied Health Research and Delivery (WCAHRD), Division of Health Sciences, University of Warwick Medical School, Coventry, United Kingdom.

Objective: To examine the independent contribution of individual, community and state-level factors to health care service utilization for children with acute childhood illnesses in Nigeria.

Materials And Methods: The study was based on secondary analyses of cross-sectional population-based data from the 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). Multilevel logistic regression models were applied to the data on 6,427 under-five children who used or did not use health care service when they were sick (level 1), nested within 896 communities (level 2) from 37 states (level 3).

Results: About one-quarter of the mothers were between 15 and 24 years old and almost half of them did not have formal education (47%). While only 30% of the children utilized health service when they were sick, close to 67% lived in the rural area. In the fully adjusted model, mothers with higher education attainment (Adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.63; 95% credible interval [CrI] = 1.31-2.03), from rich households (aOR = 1.76; 95% CrI = 1.35-2.25), with access to media (radio, television or magazine) (aOR = 1.18; 95% CrI = 1.08-1.29), and engaging in employment (aOR = 1.18; 95% CrI = 1.02-1.37) were significantly more likely to have used healthcare services for acute childhood illnesses. On the other hand, women who experienced difficulty getting to health facilities (aOR = 0.87; 95% CrI = 0.75-0.99) were less likely to have used health service for their children.

Conclusions: Our findings highlight that utilization of healthcare service for acute childhood illnesses was influenced by not only maternal factors but also community-level factors, suggesting that public health strategies should recognise this complex web of individual composition and contextual composition factors to guide provision of healthcare services. Such interventions could include: increase in female school enrolment, provision of interest-free loans for small and medium scale enterprises, introduction of mobile clinics and establishment of more primary health care centres.
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http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0173578PLOS
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5351867PMC
September 2017

Incomplete childhood immunization in Nigeria: a multilevel analysis of individual and contextual factors.

BMC Public Health 2017 03 8;17(1):236. Epub 2017 Mar 8.

Centre for Evidence-based Health Care, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa.

Background: Under-five mortality remains high in sub-Saharan Africa despite global decline. One quarter of these deaths are preventable through interventions such as immunization. The aim of this study was to examine the independent effects of individual-, community- and state-level factors on incomplete childhood immunization in Nigeria, which is one of the 10 countries where most of the incompletely immunised children in the world live.

Methods: The study was based on secondary analyses of cross-sectional data from the 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). Multilevel multivariable logistic regression models were applied to the data on 5,754 children aged 12-23 months who were fully immunized or not (level 1), nested within 896 communities (level 2) from 37 states (level 3).

Results: More than three-quarter of the children (76.3%) were not completely immunized. About 83% of children of young mothers (15-24 years) and 94% of those whose mothers are illiterate did not receive full immunization. In the fully adjusted model, the chances of not being fully immunized reduced for children whose mothers attended antenatal clinic (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 0.49; 95% credible interval [CrI] = 0.39-0.60), delivered in health facility (aOR = 0.62; 95% CrI = 0.51-0.74) and lived in urban area (aOR = 0.66; 95% CrI = 0.50-0.82). Children whose mothers had difficulty getting to health facility (aOR = 1.28; 95% CrI = 1.02-1.57) and lived in socioeconomically disadvantaged communities (aOR = 2.93; 95% CrI = 1.60-4.71) and states (aOR = 2.69; 955 CrI =1.37-4.73) were more likely to be incompletely immunized.

Conclusions: This study has revealed that the risk of children being incompletely immunized in Nigeria was influenced by not only individual factors but also community- and state-level factors. Interventions to improve child immunization uptake should take into consideration these contextual characteristics.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-017-4137-7DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5341359PMC
March 2017

Predictors of differences in health services utilization for children in Nigerian communities.

Prev Med 2017 Mar 28;96:67-72. Epub 2016 Dec 28.

NIHR Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care, West Midlands (CLAHRC WM), University of Warwick Medical School, Coventry, United Kingdom.

Health service utilization is an important component of child health promotion. Evidence shows that two-thirds of child deaths in low and middle income countries could be prevented if current interventions were adequately utilized. Aim of this study was to identify determinants of variation in health services utilization for children in communities in Nigeria. Multivariable negative binomial regression model attempting to explain observed variability in health services usage in Nigerian communities was applied to the 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey data. We included the index of maternal deprivation, gender of child, community environmental factor index, and maternal health seeking behaviour, multiple childhood deprivation index and ethnicity diversity index as the independent variables. The outcome variable was under-fives' hospital attendance rates for acute illness. Of the 7577 children from 896 communities in Nigeria that were sick 1936 (25.6%) were taken to the health care facilities for treatment. The final model revealed that both multiple childhood deprivation (incidence rate ratio [IRR]=1.23, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12 to 1.35) and children living in communities with a high ethnic diversity were associated with higher rate of health service use. Maternal health seeking behaviour was associated with a significantly lower rate of health care service use. There are significant variations in health services utilization for sick children across Nigeria communities which appear to be more strongly determined by childhood deprivation factors and maternal health seeking behaviour than by health system functions.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ypmed.2016.12.035DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5340469PMC
March 2017

Recurrence of cervical intraepithelial lesions after thermo-coagulation in HIV-positive and HIV-negative Nigerian women.

BMC Womens Health 2016 05 11;16:25. Epub 2016 May 11.

Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, 21201, USA.

Background: The burden of cervical cancer remains huge globally, more so in sub-Saharan Africa. Effectiveness of screening, rates of recurrence following treatment and factors driving these in Africans have not been sufficiently studied. The purpose of this study therefore was to investigate factors associated with recurrence of cervical intraepithelial lesions following thermo-coagulation in HIV-positive and HIV-negative Nigerian women using Visual Inspection with Acetic Acid (VIA) or Lugol's Iodine (VILI) for diagnosis.

Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted, recruiting participants from the cervical cancer "see and treat" program of IHVN. Data from 6 sites collected over a 4-year period was used. Inclusion criteria were: age ≥18 years, baseline HIV status known, VIA or VILI positive and thermo-coagulation done. Logistic regression was performed to examine the proportion of women with recurrence and to examine factors associated with recurrence.

Results: Out of 177 women included in study, 67.8 % (120/177) were HIV-positive and 32.2 % (57/177) were HIV-negative. Recurrence occurred in 16.4 % (29/177) of participants; this was 18.3 % (22/120) in HIV-positive women compared to 12.3 % (7/57) in HIV-negative women but this difference was not statistically significant (p-value 0.31). Women aged ≥30 years were much less likely to develop recurrence, adjusted OR = 0.34 (95 % CI = 0.13, 0.92). Among HIV-positive women, CD4 count <200cells/mm(3) was associated with recurrence, adjusted OR = 5.47 (95 % CI = 1.24, 24.18).

Conclusion: Recurrence of VIA or VILI positive lesions after thermo-coagulation occurs in a significant proportion of women. HIV-positive women with low CD4 counts are at increased risk of recurrent lesions and may be related to immunosuppression.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12905-016-0304-8DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4864941PMC
May 2016

Effect of Using the Same vs Different Order for Second Readings of Screening Mammograms on Rates of Breast Cancer Detection: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

JAMA 2016 May;315(18):1956-65

Warwick Medical School, the University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom.

Importance: Interpreting screening mammograms is a difficult repetitive task that can result in missed cancers and false-positive recalls. In the United Kingdom, 2 film readers independently evaluate each mammogram to search for signs of cancer and examine digital mammograms in batches. However, a vigilance decrement (reduced detection rate with time on task) has been observed in similar settings.

Objective: To determine the effect of changing the order for the second film reader of batches of screening mammograms on rates of breast cancer detection.

Design, Setting, And Participants: A multicenter, double-blind, cluster randomized clinical trial conducted at 46 specialized breast screening centers from the National Health Service Breast Screening Program in England for 1 year (all between December 20, 2012, and November 3, 2014). Three hundred sixty readers participated (mean, 7.8 readers per center)-186 radiologists, 143 radiography advanced practitioners, and 31 breast clinicians, all fully qualified to report mammograms in the NHS breast screening program.

Interventions: The 2 readers examined each batch of digital mammograms in the same order in the control group and in the opposite order to one another in the intervention group.

Main Outcomes And Measures: The primary outcome was cancer detection rate; secondary outcomes were rates of recall and disagreements between readers.

Results: Among 1,194,147 women (mean age, 59.3; SD, 7.49) who had screening mammograms (596,642 in the intervention group; 597,505 in the control group), the images were interpreted in 37,688 batches (median batch size, 35; interquartile range [IQR]; 16-46), with each reader interpreting a median of 176 batches (IQR, 96-278). After completion of all subsequent diagnostic tests, a total of 10,484 cases (0.88%) of breast cancer were detected. There was no significant difference in cancer detection rate with 5272 cancers (0.88%) detected in the intervention group vs 5212 cancers (0.87%) detected in the control group (difference, 0.01% points; 95% CI, -0.02% to 0.04% points; recall rate, 24,681 [4.14%] vs 24,894 [4.17%]; difference, -0.03% points; 95% CI, -0.10% to 0.04% points; or rate of reader disagreements, 20,471 [3.43%] vs 20,793 [3.48%]; difference, -0.05% points; 95% CI, -0.11% to 0.02% points).

Conclusions And Relevance: Interpretation of batches of mammograms by qualified screening mammography readers using a different order vs the same order for the second reading resulted in no significant difference in rates of detection of breast cancer.

Trial Registration: isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN46603370.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jama.2016.5257DOI Listing
May 2016

Pattern of Utilisation of Dental Health Care Among HIV-positive Adult Nigerians.

Oral Health Prev Dent 2016 ;14(3):215-25

Purpose: To determine the pattern of dental care utilisation of people living with HIV (PLHIV).

Materials And Methods: A cross-sectional questionnaire survey of 239 PLHIV patients in three care centres was done. Information on sociodemographics, dental visit, risk groups, living arrangement, medical insurance and need of dental care was recorded. The EC Clearinghouse and WHO clinical staging was used to determine the stage of HIV/AIDS infection following routine oral examinations under natural daylight. Multivariate logistic regression models were created after adjusting for all the covariates that were statistically significant at univariate/bivariate levels.

Results: The majority of subjects were younger than 50 years, about 93% had not seen a dentist before being diagnosed HIV positive and 92% reported no dental visit after contracting HIV. Among nonusers of dental care, 14.3% reported that they wanted care but were afraid to seek it. Other reasons included poor awareness, lack of money and stigmatisation. Multivariate analysis showed that lack of dental care was associated with employment status, living arrangements, educational status, income per annum and presenting with oral symptoms. The area under the receiver operating curve was 84% for multivariate logistic regression model 1, 70% for model 2, 67% for model 3 and 71% for model 4, which means that the predictive power of the models were good.

Conclusion: Contrary to our expectations, dental utilisation among PLHIV was generally poor among this group of patients. There is serious and immediate need to improve the awareness of PLHIVs in African settings and barriers to dental care utilisation should also be removed or reduced.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.3290/j.ohpd.a35302DOI Listing
September 2016

Factors That Predict Differences in Childhood Mortality in Nigerian Communities: A Prognostic Model.

J Pediatr 2016 Jan 24;168:144-150.e1. Epub 2015 Oct 24.

Warwick Center for Applied Health Research and Delivery, Division of Health Sciences, University of Warwick Medical School, Coventry, United Kingdom; Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, International Health Group, Liverpool, United Kingdom.

Objective: To identify predictors of variations of childhood mortality between Nigerian communities and to identify high-risk communities where childhood mortality was higher than expected.

Study Design: Secondary analysis of the 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey data using prognostic univariable and multivariable mixed Poisson regression models. Likelihood ratio test, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit, and variance inflation factor were used to evaluate the fitness of the final model.

Results: The final adjusted model revealed that communities with high rating of multiple childhood deprivation (relative risk 1.14, 95% CI 1.09-1.19) and maternal socioeconomic deprivation (relative risk 1.22, 95% CI 1.14-1.29) were associated significantly with the risk of childhood mortality. Communities with enhanced maternal hospital-based health-seeking behaviors and more advantageous environmental conditions had reduced risks of childhood mortality. Similarly, children living in communities with high ethnic diversity were significantly less likely to die before their fifth birthday (relative risk 0.96, 95% CI 0.94-0.97). About 64% of the observed heterogeneity in childhood mortality in these communities was explained by the final model. Eleven of the 896 communities had higher than expected childhood mortality rates during the study period.

Conclusions: Of the 31 482 children included in this survey, 2886 had died before their fifth birthday (128 deaths per 1000 live births). There are variations in childhood mortality across Nigerian communities that are not determined only by health system functions but also by factors beyond the scope of health authorities and healthcare delivery systems.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpeds.2015.09.057DOI Listing
January 2016

Contextual socioeconomic factors associated with childhood mortality in Nigeria: a multilevel analysis.

J Epidemiol Community Health 2015 Nov 10;69(11):1102-8. Epub 2015 Jun 10.

Division of Health Sciences, Warwick-Centre for Applied Health Research and Delivery (WCAHRD), University of Warwick Medical School, Coventry, UK International Health Group, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK.

Background: Childhood mortality is a well-known public health issue, particularly in the low and middle income countries. The overarching aim of this study was to examine whether neighbourhood socioeconomic disadvantage is associated with childhood mortality beyond individual-level measures of socioeconomic status in Nigeria.

Methods: Multilevel logistic regression models were applied to data on 31 482 under-five children whether alive or dead (level 1) nested within 896 neighbourhoods (level 2) from the 37 states in Nigeria (level 3) using the most recent 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (DHS).

Results: More than 1 of every 10 children studied had died before reaching the age of 5 years (130/1000 live births). The following factors independently increased the odds of childhood mortality: male sex, mother's age at 15-24 years, uneducated mother or low maternal education attainment, decreasing household wealth index at individual level (level 1), residing in rural area and neighbourhoods with high poverty rate at level 2. There were significant neighbourhoods and states clustering in childhood mortality in Nigeria.

Conclusions: The study provides evidence that individual-level and neighbourhood-level socioeconomic conditions are important correlates of childhood mortality in Nigeria. The findings of this study also highlight the need to implement public health prevention strategies at the individual level, as well as at the area/neighbourhood level. These strategies include the establishment of an effective publicly funded healthcare system, as well as health education and poverty alleviation programmes.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/jech-2015-205457DOI Listing
November 2015

Individual and contextual socioeconomic determinants of knowledge of the ABC approach of preventing the sexual transmission of HIV in Nigeria: a multilevel analysis.

Sex Health 2013 Dec;10(6):522-9

Warwick-Centre for Applied Health Research and Delivery (WCAHRD), Division of Health Sciences, Warwick Medical School, The University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.

Background: Nigeria has the highest number of people living with HIV/AIDS in the world after India and South Africa. HIV/AIDS places a considerable burden on society's resources, and its prevention is a cost-beneficial solution to address these consequences. To the best of our knowledge, there has been no multilevel study performed to date that examined the separate and independent associations of individual and community socioeconomic status (SES) with HIV prevention knowledge in Nigeria.

Methods: Multilevel linear regression models were applied to the 2008 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey on 48871 respondents (Level 1) nested within 886 communities (Level 2) from 37 districts (Level 3).

Results: Approximately one-fifth (20%) of respondents were not aware of any of the Abstinence, Being faithful and Condom use (ABC) approach of preventing the sexual transmission of HIV. However, the likelihood of being aware of the ABC approach of preventing the sexual transmission of HIV increased with older age, male gender, greater education attainment, a higher wealth index, living in an urban area and being from least socioeconomically disadvantaged communities. There were significant community and district variations in respondents' knowledge of the ABC approach of preventing the sexual transmission of HIV.

Conclusion: The present study provides evidence that both individual- and community-level SES factors are important predictors of knowledge of the ABC approach of preventing the sexual transmission of HIV in Nigeria. The findings underscore the need to implement public health prevention strategies not only at the individual level, but also at the community level.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/SH13065DOI Listing
December 2013

Exploring variations in childhood stunting in Nigeria using league table, control chart and spatial analysis.

BMC Public Health 2013 Apr 18;13:361. Epub 2013 Apr 18.

Institute of Public Health, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria.

Background: Stunting, linear growth retardation is the best measure of child health inequalities as it captures multiple dimensions of children's health, development and environment where they live. The developmental priorities and socially acceptable health norms and practices in various regions and states within Nigeria remains disaggregated and with this, comes the challenge of being able to ascertain which of the regions and states identifies with either high or low childhood stunting to further investigate the risk factors and make recommendations for action oriented policy decisions.

Methods: We used data from the birth histories included in the 2008 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) to estimate childhood stunting. Stunting was defined as height for age below minus two standard deviations from the median height for age of the standard World Health Organization reference population. We plotted control charts of the proportion of childhood stunting for the 37 states (including federal capital, Abuja) in Nigeria. The Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) were used as a measure of the overall clustering and is assessed by a test of a null hypothesis.

Results: Childhood stunting is high in Nigeria with an average of about 39%. The percentage of children with stunting ranged from 11.5% in Anambra state to as high as 60% in Kebbi State. Ranking of states with respect to childhood stunting is as follows: Anambra and Lagos states had the least numbers with 11.5% and 16.8% respectively while Yobe, Zamfara, Katsina, Plateau and Kebbi had the highest (with more than 50% of their under-fives having stunted growth).

Conclusions: Childhood stunting is high in Nigeria and varied significantly across the states. The northern states have a higher proportion than the southern states. There is an urgent need for studies to explore factors that may be responsible for these special cause variations in childhood stunting in Nigeria.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1471-2458-13-361DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3640947PMC
April 2013

Risk factors and a predictive model for under-five mortality in Nigeria: evidence from Nigeria demographic and health survey.

BMC Pregnancy Childbirth 2012 Feb 29;12:10. Epub 2012 Feb 29.

Department of Public Health & Biostatistics, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.

Background: Under-5 mortality is a major public health challenge in developing countries. It is essential to identify determinants of under-five mortality (U5M) childhood mortality because these will assist in formulating appropriate health programmes and policies in order to meet the United Nations MDG goal. The objective of this study was to develop a predictive model and identify maternal, child, family and other risk factors associated U5M in Nigeria.

Methods: Population-based cross-sectional study which explored 2008 demographic and health survey of Nigeria (NDHS) with multivariable logistic regression. Likelihood Ratio Test, Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness-of-Fit and Variance Inflation Factor were used to check the fit of the model and the predictive power of the model was assessed with Receiver Operating Curve (ROC curve).

Results: This study yielded an excellent predictive model which revealed that the likelihood of U5M among the children of mothers that had their first marriage at age 20-24 years and ≥25 years declined by 20% and 30% respectively compared to children of those that married before the age of 15 years. Also, the following factors reduced odds of U5M: health seeking behaviour, breastfeeding children for >18 months, use of contraception, small family size, having one wife, low birth order, normal birth weight, child spacing, living in urban areas, and good sanitation.

Conclusions: This study has revealed that maternal, child, family and other factors were important risk factors of U5M in Nigeria. This study has identified important risk factors that will assist in formulating policies that will improve child survival.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1471-2393-12-10DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3313900PMC
February 2012

Individual and contextual factors associated with childhood stunting in Nigeria: a multilevel analysis.

Matern Child Nutr 2013 Apr 18;9(2):244-59. Epub 2011 Oct 18.

Department of Public Health and Biostatistics, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.

Stunting, a form of undernutrition, is the best measure of child health inequalities as it captures multiple dimensions of children's health, development and the environment where they live. The aim of this study was to quantify the predictors of childhood stunting in Nigeria. This study used data obtained from the 2008 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS). A total of 28 647 children aged 0-59 months included in NDHS in 2008 were analysed in this study. We applied multilevel multivariate logistic regression analysis in which individual-level factors were at the first level and community-level factors at the second level. The percentage change in variance of the full model accounted for about 46% in odds of stunting across the communities. The present study found that the following predictors increased the odds of childhood stunting: male gender, age above 11 months, multiple birth, low birthweight, low maternal education, low maternal body mass index, poor maternal health-seeking behaviour, poor household wealth and short birth interval. The community-level predictors found to have significant association with childhood stunting were: child residing in community with high illiteracy rate and North West and North East regions of the country. In conclusion, this study revealed that both individual- and community-level factors are significant determinants of childhood stunting in Nigeria.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1740-8709.2011.00361.xDOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6860873PMC
April 2013
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