Publications by authors named "Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam"

63 Publications

Obesity researches in youth: A scientometrics study in Middle East countries.

J Res Med Sci 2021 30;26:54. Epub 2021 Aug 30.

Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Background: The alarming trends of obesity/overweight in youth have been interested policy makers and other stakeholders to exact follow and analysis of related scientific evidence. The present paper quantify the trends of outputs of youth obesity/overweight researches in Middle East countries.

Materials And Methods: The Scopus database systematically searched as the most comprehensive multidisciplinary database, for all related obesity/overweight that focused on youth age groups concerns, from 2000 to 2017. These scientometrics analysis included the trends of scientific products, citations, and other scientometric index in Middle East countries.

Results: During 2000-2017, in the field of youth obesity, 2350 papers published (0.40% of total 591,105 indexed paper of this region) by Middle East countries. In this regard, Iran with 574 publication (24.43%) had the first rank. After that Turkey and Saudi Arabia, respectively, with 489 (20.81%) and 313 (13.32%) papers, had the next ranks. Over 18-year period, based on the findings all of Eastern Mediterranean countries follow the progressive plans for topics related to youth obesity. Between them, Iran and Turkey have significant growth rates (0.77% and 0.40%, respectively). Scientometric indicators such as "number of published papers," "number of citations" confirmed that during the 2000-2017 the P-trends of total number of related published papers and the correspond citations, in region countries, were significant (2168 papers and 34,132 citations, < 0.001).

Conclusion: Most of countries at global and regional levels follow ascending trends in publications and citations in obesity/overweight fields. Iran's position has grown significantly among them. Maintaining and promoting this position requires careful planning and special attention. The findings also could be used for better health policy and complementary researches.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.4103/jrms.JRMS_415_19DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8506246PMC
August 2021

Unmet need for hypercholesterolemia care in 35 low- and middle-income countries: A cross-sectional study of nationally representative surveys.

PLoS Med 2021 Oct 25;18(10):e1003841. Epub 2021 Oct 25.

Department of Economics & Centre for Modern Indian Studies, University of Goettingen, Göttingen, Germany.

Background: As the prevalence of hypercholesterolemia is increasing in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), detailed evidence is urgently needed to guide the response of health systems to this epidemic. This study sought to quantify unmet need for hypercholesterolemia care among adults in 35 LMICs.

Methods And Findings: We pooled individual-level data from 129,040 respondents aged 15 years and older from 35 nationally representative surveys conducted between 2009 and 2018. Hypercholesterolemia care was quantified using cascade of care analyses in the pooled sample and by region, country income group, and country. Hypercholesterolemia was defined as (i) total cholesterol (TC) ≥240 mg/dL or self-reported lipid-lowering medication use and, alternatively, as (ii) low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) ≥160 mg/dL or self-reported lipid-lowering medication use. Stages of the care cascade for hypercholesterolemia were defined as follows: screened (prior to the survey), aware of diagnosis, treated (lifestyle advice and/or medication), and controlled (TC <200 mg/dL or LDL-C <130 mg/dL). We further estimated how age, sex, education, body mass index (BMI), current smoking, having diabetes, and having hypertension are associated with cascade progression using modified Poisson regression models with survey fixed effects. High TC prevalence was 7.1% (95% CI: 6.8% to 7.4%), and high LDL-C prevalence was 7.5% (95% CI: 7.1% to 7.9%). The cascade analysis showed that 43% (95% CI: 40% to 45%) of study participants with high TC and 47% (95% CI: 44% to 50%) with high LDL-C ever had their cholesterol measured prior to the survey. About 31% (95% CI: 29% to 33%) and 36% (95% CI: 33% to 38%) were aware of their diagnosis; 29% (95% CI: 28% to 31%) and 33% (95% CI: 31% to 36%) were treated; 7% (95% CI: 6% to 9%) and 19% (95% CI: 18% to 21%) were controlled. We found substantial heterogeneity in cascade performance across countries and higher performances in upper-middle-income countries and the Eastern Mediterranean, Europe, and Americas. Lipid screening was significantly associated with older age, female sex, higher education, higher BMI, comorbid diagnosis of diabetes, and comorbid diagnosis of hypertension. Awareness of diagnosis was significantly associated with older age, higher BMI, comorbid diagnosis of diabetes, and comorbid diagnosis of hypertension. Lastly, treatment of hypercholesterolemia was significantly associated with comorbid hypertension and diabetes, and control of lipid measures with comorbid diabetes. The main limitations of this study are a potential recall bias in self-reported information on received health services as well as diminished comparability due to varying survey years and varying lipid guideline application across country and clinical settings.

Conclusions: Cascade performance was poor across all stages, indicating large unmet need for hypercholesterolemia care in this sample of LMICs-calling for greater policy and research attention toward this cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor and highlighting opportunities for improved prevention of CVD.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003841DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8575312PMC
October 2021

Burden of multiple sclerosis in Iran from 1990 to 2017.

BMC Neurol 2021 Oct 15;21(1):400. Epub 2021 Oct 15.

Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Background: Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a burdensome, chronic and autoimmune disease of the central nervous system. We aimed to report the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) of MS in Iran at a national level for different age and sex groups over a period of 28 years (1990-2017).

Methods: Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) from 1990 to 2017, published by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. The incidence of DALYs and prevalence of MS were estimated to report the burden of MS based on sex and age in Iran from 1990 to 2017.

Results: At the national level, the Age-Standardized Incidence Rate (ASIR), Age-Standardized Prevalence Rate (ASPR), Age-Standardized DALYs Rate (ASDR) and the Age-Standardized Mortality Rate (ASMR) in Iran in 2017 were 2.4 (95% Uncertainty Interval [UI]: 2.1 to 2.7), 69.5 (62.1 to 77.8), 29.1 (23.6 to 34.7), and 0.4 (0.3 to 0.4) per 100,000 population, respectively. During the period of 1990 to 2017, all measures increased, and were higher among females. The incidence rate began upward trend at the age of 20 and attained its highest level at the age of 25.

Conclusion: In Iran, all of the age-standardized MS rates have been increasing during the 28 years from 1990 to 2017. Our findings can help policy makers and health planners to design and communicate their plans and to have a better resource allocation, depending on the incidence and prevalence of the growing numbers of MS patients in Iran.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12883-021-02431-1DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8518301PMC
October 2021

Estimated effect of increased diagnosis, treatment, and control of diabetes and its associated cardiovascular risk factors among low-income and middle-income countries: a microsimulation model.

Lancet Glob Health 2021 11 22;9(11):e1539-e1552. Epub 2021 Sep 22.

Institute for Applied Health Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK; Centre for Global Surgery, Department of Global Health, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa; Medical Research Council-Wits University Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.

Background: Given the increasing prevalence of diabetes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), we aimed to estimate the health and cost implications of achieving different targets for diagnosis, treatment, and control of diabetes and its associated cardiovascular risk factors among LMICs.

Methods: We constructed a microsimulation model to estimate disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost and health-care costs of diagnosis, treatment, and control of blood pressure, dyslipidaemia, and glycaemia among people with diabetes in LMICs. We used individual participant data-specifically from the subset of people who were defined as having any type of diabetes by WHO standards-from nationally representative, cross-sectional surveys (2006-18) spanning 15 world regions to estimate the baseline 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (defined as fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction and stroke), heart failure (ejection fraction of <40%, with New York Heart Association class III or IV functional limitations), end-stage renal disease (defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate <15 mL/min per 1·73 m or needing dialysis or transplant), retinopathy with severe vision loss (<20/200 visual acuity as measured by the Snellen chart), and neuropathy with pressure sensation loss (assessed by the Semmes-Weinstein 5·07/10 g monofilament exam). We then used data from meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials to estimate the reduction in risk and the WHO OneHealth tool to estimate costs in reaching either 60% or 80% of diagnosis, treatment initiation, and control targets for blood pressure, dyslipidaemia, and glycaemia recommended by WHO guidelines. Costs were updated to 2020 International Dollars, and both costs and DALYs were computed over a 10-year policy planning time horizon at a 3% annual discount rate.

Findings: We obtained data from 23 678 people with diabetes from 67 countries. The median estimated 10-year risk was 10·0% (IQR 4·0-18·0) for cardiovascular events, 7·8% (5·1-11·8) for neuropathy with pressure sensation loss, 7·2% (5·6-9·4) for end-stage renal disease, 6·0% (4·2-8·6) for retinopathy with severe vision loss, and 2·6% (1·2-5·3) for congestive heart failure. A target of 80% diagnosis, 80% treatment, and 80% control would be expected to reduce DALYs lost from diabetes complications from a median population-weighted loss to 1097 DALYs per 1000 population over 10 years (IQR 1051-1155), relative to a baseline of 1161 DALYs, primarily from reduced cardiovascular events (down from a median of 143 to 117 DALYs per 1000 population) due to blood pressure and statin treatment, with comparatively little effect from glycaemic control. The target of 80% diagnosis, 80% treatment, and 80% control would be expected to produce an overall incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$1362 per DALY averted (IQR 1304-1409), with the majority of decreased costs from reduced cardiovascular event management, counterbalanced by increased costs for blood pressure and statin treatment, producing an overall incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $1362 per DALY averted (IQR 1304-1409).

Interpretation: Reducing complications from diabetes in LMICs is likely to require a focus on scaling up blood pressure and statin medication treatment initiation and blood pressure medication titration rather than focusing on increasing screening to increase diabetes diagnosis, or a glycaemic treatment and control among people with diabetes.

Funding: None.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(21)00340-5DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8526364PMC
November 2021

Dissection of non-pharmaceutical interventions implemented by Iran, South Korea, and Turkey in the fight against COVID-19 pandemic.

J Diabetes Metab Disord 2021 Sep 14:1-13. Epub 2021 Sep 14.

Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, No. 10, Al-e-Ahmad and Chamran Highway intersection, 1411713137 Tehran, Iran.

Purpose: The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has imposed a great global burden on public health. As one of the most affected countries, Iran has tackled emerging challenges in the path to overcoming the epidemic, with three peaks of the disease propagation as of February 19, 2020. To flatten the curve of the COVID-19 pandemic, most countries have implemented bundles of intrusive, sometimes extremely stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In this communication, we have dissected the effectiveness of NPIs and compared the strategies implemented by Iran, Turkey, and South Korea to mitigate the disease's spread.

Methods: We searched online databases via PubMed, Web of Knowledge, and Scopus. Titles/abstracts and full-texts were screened by two reviewers and discrepancies were resolved upon discussion.

Results: Our results provide insights into five domains: prevention, screening, in-patient and out-patient facilities, governance, and management of diabetes mellitus. Analysis of previous efforts put in place illustrates that by fostering efficient social distancing measures, increasing the capability to perform prompt polymerase chain reaction tests, applying smart contact tracing, and supplying adequate personal protective equipment, Turkey and South Korea have brought the epidemic sub-optimally under control.

Conclusion: From the perspective of policymakers, these achievements are of utmost importance given that attaining the aspirational goals in the management of the COVID-19 necessities a suitable adjustment of previous successful strategies. Hence, policymakers should be noticed that a suitable combination of NPIs is necessary to stem the disease's propagation.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40200-021-00877-1DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8437736PMC
September 2021

Burden of Transport-Related Injuries in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

Arch Iran Med 2021 07 1;24(7):512-525. Epub 2021 Jul 1.

Multiple Sclerosis Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Background: Transport-related injuries (TIs) are a substantial public health concern for all regions of the world. The present study quantified the burden of TIs and deaths in the Eastern Mediterranean region (EMR) in 2017 by sex and age.

Methods: TIs and deaths were estimated by age, sex, country, and year using Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) and DisMod-MR 2.1. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which quantify the total burden of years lost due to premature death or disability, were also estimated per 100000 population. All estimates were reported along with their corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

Results: In 2017, there were 5.5 million (UI 4.9-6.2) transport-related incident cases in the EMR - a substantial increase from 1990 (2.8 million; UI 2.5-3.1). The age-standardized incidence rate for the EMR in 2017 was 787 (UI 705.5-876.2) per 100000, which has not changed significantly since 1990 (-0.9%; UI -4.7 to 3). These rates differed remarkably between countries, such that Oman (1303.9; UI 1167.3-1441.5) and Palestine (486.5; UI 434.5-545.9) had the highest and lowest age-standardized incidence rates per 100000, respectively. In 2017, there were 185.3 thousand (UI 170.8-200.6) transport-related fatalities in the EMR - a substantial increase since 1990 (140.4 thousand; UI 118.7-156.9). The age-standardized death rate for the EMR in 2017 was 29.5 (UI 27.1-31.9) per 100000, which was 30.5% lower than that found in 1990 (42.5; UI 36.8-47.3). In 2017, Somalia (54; UI 30-77.4) and Lebanon (7.1; UI 4.8-8.6) had the highest and lowest age-standardized death rates per 100,000, respectively. The age-standardised DALY rate for the EMR in 2017 was 1,528.8 (UI 1412.5-1651.3) per 100000, which was 34.4% lower than that found in 1990 (2,331.3; UI 1,993.1-2,589.9). In 2017, the highest DALY rate was found in Pakistan (3454121; UI 2297890- 4342908) and the lowest was found in Bahrain (8616; UI 7670-9751).

Conclusion: The present study shows that while road traffic has become relatively safer (measured by deaths and DALYs per 100000 population), the number of transport-related fatalities in the EMR is growing and needs to be addressed urgently.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.34172/aim.2021.74DOI Listing
July 2021

Body-mass index and diabetes risk in 57 low-income and middle-income countries: a cross-sectional study of nationally representative, individual-level data in 685 616 adults.

Lancet 2021 07;398(10296):238-248

Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Background: The prevalence of overweight, obesity, and diabetes is rising rapidly in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), but there are scant empirical data on the association between body-mass index (BMI) and diabetes in these settings.

Methods: In this cross-sectional study, we pooled individual-level data from nationally representative surveys across 57 LMICs. We identified all countries in which a WHO Stepwise Approach to Surveillance (STEPS) survey had been done during a year in which the country fell into an eligible World Bank income group category. For LMICs that did not have a STEPS survey, did not have valid contact information, or declined our request for data, we did a systematic search for survey datasets. Eligible surveys were done during or after 2008; had individual-level data; were done in a low-income, lower-middle-income, or upper-middle-income country; were nationally representative; had a response rate of 50% or higher; contained a diabetes biomarker (either a blood glucose measurement or glycated haemoglobin [HbA]); and contained data on height and weight. Diabetes was defined biologically as a fasting plasma glucose concentration of 7·0 mmol/L (126·0 mg/dL) or higher; a random plasma glucose concentration of 11·1 mmol/L (200·0 mg/dL) or higher; or a HbA of 6·5% (48·0 mmol/mol) or higher, or by self-reported use of diabetes medication. We included individuals aged 25 years or older with complete data on diabetes status, BMI (defined as normal [18·5-22·9 kg/m], upper-normal [23·0-24·9 kg/m], overweight [25·0-29·9 kg/m], or obese [≥30·0 kg/m]), sex, and age. Countries were categorised into six geographical regions: Latin America and the Caribbean, Europe and central Asia, east, south, and southeast Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, Middle East and north Africa, and Oceania. We estimated the association between BMI and diabetes risk by multivariable Poisson regression and receiver operating curve analyses, stratified by sex and geographical region.

Findings: Our pooled dataset from 58 nationally representative surveys in 57 LMICs included 685 616 individuals. The overall prevalence of overweight was 27·2% (95% CI 26·6-27·8), of obesity was 21·0% (19·6-22·5), and of diabetes was 9·3% (8·4-10·2). In the pooled analysis, a higher risk of diabetes was observed at a BMI of 23 kg/m or higher, with a 43% greater risk of diabetes for men and a 41% greater risk for women compared with a BMI of 18·5-22·9 kg/m. Diabetes risk also increased steeply in individuals aged 35-44 years and in men aged 25-34 years in sub-Saharan Africa. In the stratified analyses, there was considerable regional variability in this association. Optimal BMI thresholds for diabetes screening ranged from 23·8 kg/m among men in east, south, and southeast Asia to 28·3 kg/m among women in the Middle East and north Africa and in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Interpretation: The association between BMI and diabetes risk in LMICs is subject to substantial regional variability. Diabetes risk is greater at lower BMI thresholds and at younger ages than reflected in currently used BMI cutoffs for assessing diabetes risk. These findings offer an important insight to inform context-specific diabetes screening guidelines.

Funding: Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health McLennan Fund: Dean's Challenge Grant Program.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00844-8DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8336025PMC
July 2021

Disparities and spatial variations of high salt intake in Iran: a subnational study of districts based on the small area estimation method.

Public Health Nutr 2021 Dec 15;24(18):6281-6291. Epub 2021 Jul 15.

Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Objective: High salt intake is one of the leading diet-related risk factors for several non-communicable diseases. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of high salt intake in Iran.

Design: A modelling study by the small area estimation method, based on a nationwide cross-sectional survey, Iran STEPwise approach to risk factor Surveillance (STEPS) 2016. The modelling estimated the prevalence of high salt intake, defined as a daily salt intake ≥ 5 g in all districts of Iran based on data from available districts. The modelling results were provided in different geographical and socio-economic scales to make the comparison possible across the country.

Setting: 429 districts of all provinces of Iran, 2016.

Participants: 18 635 salt intake measurements from individuals 25 years old and above who participated in the Iran STEPS 2016 survey.

Results: All districts in Iran had a high prevalence of high salt intake. The estimated prevalence of high salt intake among females of all districts ranged between 72·68 % (95 % UI 58·48, 84·81) and 95·04 % (95 % UI 87·10, 100). Estimated prevalence for males ranged between 88·44 % (95 % UI 80·29, 96·15) and 98·64 % (95 % UI 94·97, 100). In all categorisations, males had a significantly higher prevalence of high salt intake. Among females, the population with the lower economic status had a higher salt consumption than the participants with higher economic status by investigating the concentration index.

Conclusions: Findings of this study highlight the high salt intake as a prominent risk factor in all Iran regions, despite some variations in different scales. More suitable population-wide policies are warranted to handle this public health issue in Iran.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1368980021002986DOI Listing
December 2021

Targeting Hypertension Screening in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of 1.2 Million Adults in 56 Countries.

J Am Heart Assoc 2021 07 2;10(13):e021063. Epub 2021 Jul 2.

Heidelberg Institute of Global Health Medical Faculty and University Hospital University of Heidelberg Germany.

Background As screening programs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) often do not have the resources to screen the entire population, there is frequently a need to target such efforts to easily identifiable priority groups. This study aimed to determine (1) how hypertension prevalence in LMICs varies by age, sex, body mass index, and smoking status, and (2) the ability of different combinations of these variables to accurately predict hypertension. Methods and Results We analyzed individual-level, nationally representative data from 1 170 629 participants in 56 LMICs, of whom 220 636 (18.8%) had hypertension. Hypertension was defined as systolic blood pressure ≥140 mm Hg, diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mm Hg, or reporting to be taking blood pressure-lowering medication. The shape of the positive association of hypertension with age and body mass index varied across world regions. We used logistic regression and random forest models to compute the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in each country for different combinations of age, body mass index, sex, and smoking status. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the model with all 4 predictors ranged from 0.64 to 0.85 between countries, with a country-level mean of 0.76 across LMICs globally. The mean absolute increase in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve from the model including only age to the model including all 4 predictors was 0.05. Conclusions Adding body mass index, sex, and smoking status to age led to only a minor increase in the ability to distinguish between adults with and without hypertension compared with using age alone. Hypertension screening programs in LMICs could use age as the primary variable to target their efforts.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1161/JAHA.121.021063DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8403275PMC
July 2021

Non-communicable Diseases' Contribution to the COVID-19 Mortality: A Global Warning on the Emerging Syndemics.

Arch Iran Med 2021 05 1;24(5):445-446. Epub 2021 May 1.

Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.34172/aim.2021.63DOI Listing
May 2021

National and Subnational Incidence, Mortality, and Years of Life Lost Due to Breast Cancer in Iran: Trends and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis Since 1990.

Front Oncol 2021 25;11:561376. Epub 2021 Mar 25.

Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women, causing considerable burden and mortality. Demographic and lifestyle transitions in low and low-middle income countries have given rise to its increased incidence. The successful management of cancer relies on evidence-based policies taking into account national epidemiologic settings. We aimed to report the national and subnational trends of breast cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost (YLL) and mortality to incidence ratio (MIR) since 1990. As part of the National and Subnational Burden of Diseases project, we estimated incidence, mortality and YLL of breast cancer by sex, age, province, and year using a two-stage spatio-temporal model, based on the primary dataset of national cancer and death registry. MIR was calculated as a quality of care indicator. Age-period-cohort analysis was used to distinguish the effects of these three collinear factors. A significant threefold increase in age-specific incidence at national and subnational levels along with a twofold extension of provincial disparity was observed. Although mortality has slightly decreased since 2000, a positive mortality annual percent change was detected in patients aged 25-34 years, leading to raised YLLs. A significant declining pattern of MIR and lower provincial MIR disparity was observed. We observed a secular increase of breast cancer incidence. Further evaluation of risk factors and developing national screening policies is recommended. A descending pattern of mortality, YLL and MIR at national and subnational levels reflects improved quality of care, even though mortality among younger age groups should be specifically addressed.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fonc.2021.561376DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8027299PMC
March 2021

Geographical and socioeconomic inequalities in female breast cancer incidence and mortality in Iran: A Bayesian spatial analysis of registry data.

PLoS One 2021 17;16(3):e0248723. Epub 2021 Mar 17.

Department of Natural Science, School of Science and Technology, Middlesex University, London, United Kingdom.

Background: In Iran, trends in breast cancer incidence and mortality have generally been monitored at national level. The purpose of this study is to examine province-level disparities in age-standardised breast cancer incidence versus mortality from 2000 to 2010 and their association with socioeconomic status.

Methods: In this study, data from Iran's national cancer and death registry systems, and covariates from census and household expenditure surveys were used. We estimated the age-standardised incidence and mortality rates in women aged more than 30 years for all 31 provinces in the consecutive time intervals 2000-2003, 2004-2007 and 2008-2010 using a Bayesian spatial model.

Results: Mean age-standardised breast cancer incidence across provinces increased over time from 15.0 per 100,000 people (95% credible interval 12.0,18.3) in 2000-2003 to 39.6 (34.5,45.1) in 2008-2010. The mean breast cancer mortality rate declined from 10.9 (8.3,13.8) to 9.9 (7.5,12.5) deaths per 100,000 people in the same period. When grouped by wealth index quintiles, provinces in the highest quintile had higher levels of incidence and mortality. In the wealthiest quintile, reductions in mortality over time were larger than those observed among provinces in the poorest quintile. Relative breast cancer mortality decreased by 16.7% in the highest quintile compared to 10.8% in the lowest quintile.

Conclusions: Breast cancer incidence has increased over time, with lower incidence in the poorest provinces likely driven by underdiagnoses or late-stage diagnosis. Although the reported mortality rate is still higher in wealthier provinces, the larger decline over time in these provinces indicates a possible future reversal, with the most deprived provinces having higher mortality rates. Ongoing analysis of incidence and mortality at sub-national level is crucial in addressing inequalities in healthcare systems and public health both in Iran and elsewhere.
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http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0248723PLOS
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7968648PMC
October 2021

Global, regional, and national burden and quality of care index (QCI) of thyroid cancer: A systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2017.

Cancer Med 2021 04 5;10(7):2496-2508. Epub 2021 Mar 5.

Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Clinical Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Background: Thyroid cancer (TC) is the most prevalent malignancy of the endocrine system. Over the past decades, TC incidence rates have been increasing. TC quality of care (QOC) has yet to be well understood. We aimed to assess the quality of TC care and its disparities.

Methods: We retrieved primary epidemiologic indices from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 1990-2017 database. We calculated four secondary indices of mortality to incidence ratio, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to prevalence ratio, prevalence to incidence ratio, and years of life lost (YLLs) to years lived with disability (YLD) ratio and summarized them by the principal component analysis (PCA) to produce one unique index presented as the quality of care index (QCI) ranged between 0 and 100, to compare different scales. The gender disparity ratio (GDR), defined as the QCI for females divided by QCI for males, was applied to show gender inequity.

Results: In 2017, there were 255,489 new TC incident cases (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 245,709-272,470) globally, which resulted in 41,235 deaths (39,911-44,139). The estimated global QCI was 84.39. The highest QCI was observed in the European region (93.84), with Italy having the highest score (99.77). Conversely, the lowest QCI was seen in the African region (55.09), where the Central African Republic scored the lowest (13.64). The highest and lowest socio-demographic index (SDI) regions scored 97.27 and 53.85, respectively. Globally, gender disparity was higher after the age of 40 years and in favor of better care in women.

Conclusion: TC QOC is better among those countries of higher socioeconomic status, possibly due to better healthcare access and early detection in these regions. Overall, the quality of TC care was higher in women and younger adults. Countries could adopt the introduced index of QOC to investigate the quality of provided care for different diseases and conditions.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/cam4.3823DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7982631PMC
April 2021

A nationwide study of metabolic syndrome prevalence in Iran; a comparative analysis of six definitions.

PLoS One 2021 3;16(3):e0241926. Epub 2021 Mar 3.

Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Introduction: To integrate and execute a proper preventive plan and reduce the risk of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), policy makers need to have access to both reliable data and a unique definition of metabolic syndrome (MetS). This study was conducted on the data collected by cross-sectional studies of WHO's STEPwise approach to surveillance of NCD risk factors (STEPs) to estimate the national and sub-national prevalence rates of MetS in Iran in 2016.

Materials And Methods: The prevalence of MetS was estimated among 18,414 individuals aged ≥25 years living in urban and rural areas of Iran using various definition criteria; National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III 2004 (ATP III), International Diabetes Federation (IDF), American Heart Association/National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (AHA/NHLBI), Joint Interim Statement (JIS). Regional IDF (RIDF) and JIS (RJIS) were defined using ethnicity-specific values of waist circumference for the country.

Results: National prevalence rate of MetS based on ATP III, IDF, AHA/NHLBI, JIS, RIDF and RJIS criteria were 38.3% (95% CI 37.4-39.1), 43.5% (42.7-44.4), 40.9% (40.1-41.8), 47.6% (46.8-48.5), 32.0% (31.2-32.9), and 40.8% (40.0-41.7), respectively. The prevalence was higher among females, in urban residents, and those aged 65-69 years. MetS was expected to affect about 18.7, 21.3, 20.0, 23.3, 15.7, and 20.0 million Iranians, respectively, based on ATP III, IDF, AHA/NHLBI, JIS, RIDF and RJIS. The two most common components noted in this population were reduced high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels and central obesity.

Conclusion: High prevalence rate of MetS among Iranian adults is alarming, especially among females, urban residents, and the elderly. The JIS definition criteria is more appropriate to determine higher number of Iranians at risk of NCDs. Proper management and prevention of MetS is required to adopt multiple national plans including lifestyle modifications, medical interventions, and public education on NCDs risk factors.
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http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0241926PLOS
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7928520PMC
August 2021

The national trend of the gastric cancer burden in Iran from 1990 to 2017.

Asia Pac J Clin Oncol 2021 Feb 25. Epub 2021 Feb 25.

Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Introduction: Gastric cancer (GC), the leading cause of cancer mortality, is the third most common cancer in Iran. To our knowledge, there have been few accurate estimates on the burden of GC in Iran. Therefore, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we aimed to study and illustrate the burden of GC and to compare rates by sex and age groups at the national level in Iran from 1990 to 2017.

Methods: We extracted data related to the 1990-2017 period from the GBD study. To report the burden of GC, we used disability adjusted life years (DALYs), mortality, incidence, and prevalence rates in different sex and age groups in Iran during the 1990-2017 period. Decomposition analysis was also performed to evaluate the roots change in incident cases.

Results: At a national level, the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) in 2017 were 22.9 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 22.1-23.9), 14.6 (14.1-15.2), 14.9 (14.4-15.4), and 296.8 (286.3-308.7) per 100,000 population, respectively. Over the 1990-2017 period, the average annual percent changes in all of the studied age-standardized rates were negative. Moreover, the male to female sex ratios of all estimates were greater than one. The incidence rate, prevalence rate, and mortality rate slowly began to increase at the age of 50 and reached its highest level among people aged 80 years and over.

Conclusion: The GC age-standardized rates revealed a downward trend from 1990 to 2017. The current study provides comprehensive knowledge about the GC burden in Iran. Therefore, it can help the appropriate allocation of resources for GC to expand preventive programs by reducing exposure to risk factors and Helicobacter pylori infection and by recommending increased consumption of fruits and vegetables. Also, expanding GC screening programs with laboratory tests or endoscopy can be an important step towards the reduction of the GC burden.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ajco.13563DOI Listing
February 2021

A Report on Statistics of an Online Self-screening Platform for COVID-19 and Its Effectiveness in Iran.

Int J Health Policy Manag 2021 Jan 16. Epub 2021 Jan 16.

Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Background: The most recent emerging infectious disease, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), is pandemic now. Iran is a country with community transmission of the disease. Telehealth tools have been proved to be useful in controlling public health disasters. We developed an online self-screening platform to offer a population-wide strategy to control the massive influx to medical centers.

Methods: We developed a platform operating based on given history by participants, including sex, age, weight, height, location, primary symptoms and signs, and high risk past medical histories. Based on a decision-making algorithm, participants were categorized into four levels of suspected cases, requiring diagnostic tests, supportive care, not suspected cases. We made comparisons with Iran STEPs (STEPwise approach to Surveillance) 2016 study and data from the Statistical Centre of Iran to assess population representativeness of data. Also, we made a comparison with officially confirmed cases to investigate the effectiveness of the platform. A multilevel mixed-effects Poisson regression was used to check the association of visiting platform and deaths caused by COVID-19.

Results: About 310 000 individuals participated in the online self-screening platform in 33 days. The majority of participants were in younger age groups, and males involved more. A significant number of participants were screened not to be suspected or needing supportive care, and only 10.4% of males and 12.0% of females had suspected results of COVID-19. The penetration of the platform was assessed to be acceptable. A correlation coefficient of 0.51 was calculated between suspected results and confirmed cases of the disease, expressing the platform's effectiveness.

Conclusion: Implementation of a proper online self-screening tool can mitigate population panic during wide-spread epidemics and relieve massive influx to medical centers. Also, an evidence-based education platform can help fighting infodemic. Noticeable utilization and verified effectiveness of such platform validate the potency of telehealth tools in controlling epidemics and pandemics.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.34172/ijhpm.2020.252DOI Listing
January 2021

A global, regional, and national survey on burden and Quality of Care Index (QCI) of brain and other central nervous system cancers; global burden of disease systematic analysis 1990-2017.

PLoS One 2021 22;16(2):e0247120. Epub 2021 Feb 22.

Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Primary brain and other central nervous system (CNS) cancers cause major burdens. In this study, we introduced a measure named the Quality of Care Index (QCI), which indirectly evaluates the quality of care given to patients with this group of cancers. Here we aimed to compare different geographic and socioeconomic patterns of CNS cancer care according to the novel measure introduced. In this regard, we acquired age-standardized primary epidemiologic measures were acquired from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 1990-2017. The primary measures were combined to make four secondary indices which all of them indirectly show the quality of care given to patients. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method was utilized to calculate the essential component named QCI. Further analyses were made based on QCI to assess the quality of care globally, regionally, and nationally (with a scale of 0-100 which higher values represent better quality of care). For 2017, the global calculated QCI was 55.0. QCI showed a desirable condition in higher socio-demographic index (SDI) quintiles. Oppositely, low SDI quintile countries (7.7) had critically worse care quality. Western Pacific Region with the highest (76.9) and African Region with the lowest QCIs (9.9) were the two WHO regions extremes. Singapore was the country with the maximum QCI of 100, followed by Japan (99.9) and South Korea (98.9). In contrast, Swaziland (2.5), Lesotho (3.5), and Vanuatu (3.9) were countries with the worse condition. While the quality of care for most regions was desirable, regions with economic constraints showed to have poor quality of care and require enforcements toward this lethal diagnosis.
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http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0247120PLOS
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7899371PMC
August 2021

Distribution of Dietary Risk Factors in Iran: National and Sub-National Burden of Disease.

Arch Iran Med 2021 01 1;24(1):48-57. Epub 2021 Jan 1.

Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Background: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are one of the greatest threats to public health, and have been related to poor quality dietary patterns. This study was conducted to determine the distribution of dietary risk factors in Iran.

Methods: Cross-sectional data was gathered between April and November 2016 from 30,541 eligible adults (out of 31 050 individuals who were selected through systematic proportional to size cluster random sampling) living in urban and rural areas, using the WHO-based STEPs risk factor questionnaire. Low intakes of fruits, vegetables, dairy products, and fish, and high intakes of salty processed food (SPF), as well as daily intake of hydrogenated fat (HF) were considered as nutritional risk factors.

Results: At the national level, 82.8% (95% CI: 82.4-83.2), 57.8% (95% CI: 57.2-58.4), 80.6% (95% CI: 80.1-81) and 90.3% (95% CI: 90-90.6) of participants of all age groups had sub-optimal intakes of fruits, vegetables, dairy products and fish, respectively. Furthermore, 12.8% (95% CI: 12.4-13.1), and 29.4% (95% CI: 28.9-29.9) of respondents had high SPF intakes and HF use, respectively. At the sub-national level, the highest distribution of suboptimal intake of fruits (97.2%; 95% CI:96-98.3), vegetables (79.2%; 95% CI: 76.3-82.1) and dairy products (92.9%; 95% CI: 91-94.7) was observed in Sistan and Baluchistan. Except for Boushehr and Hormozgan, the majority of the population of other provinces consumed fish less than twice a week. Similarly, the high intake of SPF was found mostly in the population of Yazd (23.7; 95% CI: 20.2-27.2). HF consumption was the highest in North Khorasan (64.2%; 95% CI: 60.3-68.1).

Conclusion: These findings highlight the widespread distribution of dietary risk factors in Iran, which should be a priority for the people and the politicians in order to prevent NCDs.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.34172/aim.2021.08DOI Listing
January 2021

A global, regional, and national survey on burden and Quality of Care Index (QCI) of hematologic malignancies; global burden of disease systematic analysis 1990-2017.

Exp Hematol Oncol 2021 Feb 8;10(1):11. Epub 2021 Feb 8.

Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Background: Hematologic malignancies (HMs) are a heterogeneous group of cancers that comprise diverse subgroups of neoplasms. So far, despite the major epidemiologic concerns about the quality of care, limited data are available for patients with HMs. Thus, we created a novel measure-Quality of Care Index (QCI)-to appraise the quality of care in different populations.

Methods: The Global Burden of Disease data from 1990 to 2017 applied in our study. We performed a principal component analysis on several secondary indices from the major primary indices, including incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) to create the QCI, which provides an overall score of 0-100 of the quality of cancer care. We estimated the QCI for each age group on different scales and constructed the gender disparity ratio to evaluate the gender disparity of care in HMs.

Results: Globally, while the overall age-standardized incidence rate of HMs increased from 1990 to 2017, the age-standardized DALYs and death rates decreased during the same period. Across countries, in 2017, Iceland (100), New Zealand (100), Australia (99.9), and China (99.3) had the highest QCI scores for non-Hodgkin lymphoma, multiple myeloma, Hodgkin lymphoma, and leukemia. Conversely, Central African Republic (11.5 and 6.1), Eritrea (9.6), and Mongolia (5.4) had the lowest QCI scores for the mentioned malignancies respectively. Overall, the QCI score was positively associated with higher sociodemographic of nations, and was negatively associated with age advancing.

Conclusions: The QCI provides a robust metric to evaluate the quality of care that empowers policymakers on their responsibility to allocate the resources effectively. We found that there is an association between development status and QCI and gender equity, indicating that instant policy attention is demanded to improve health-care access.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40164-021-00198-2DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7869509PMC
February 2021

Variation in the Proportion of Adults in Need of Blood Pressure-Lowering Medications by Hypertension Care Guideline in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Cross-Sectional Study of 1 037 215 Individuals From 50 Nationally Representative Surveys.

Circulation 2021 03 8;143(10):991-1001. Epub 2021 Feb 8.

Division of Primary Care and Population Health, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, CA (P.G.).

Background: Current hypertension guidelines vary substantially in their definition of who should be offered blood pressure-lowering medications. Understanding the effect of guideline choice on the proportion of adults who require treatment is crucial for planning and scaling up hypertension care in low- and middle-income countries.

Methods: We extracted cross-sectional data on age, sex, blood pressure, hypertension treatment and diagnosis status, smoking, and body mass index for adults 30 to 70 years of age from nationally representative surveys in 50 low- and middle-income countries (N = 1 037 215). We aimed to determine the effect of hypertension guideline choice on the proportion of adults in need of blood pressure-lowering medications. We considered 4 hypertension guidelines: the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline, the commonly used 140/90 mm Hg threshold, the 2016 World Health Organization HEARTS guideline, and the 2019 UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guideline.

Results: The proportion of adults in need of blood pressure-lowering medications was highest under the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association, followed by the 140/90 mm Hg, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, and World Health Organization guidelines (American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association: women, 27.7% [95% CI, 27.2-28.2], men, 35.0% [95% CI, 34.4-35.7]; 140/90 mm Hg: women, 26.1% [95% CI, 25.5-26.6], men, 31.2% [95% CI, 30.6-31.9]; National Institute for Health and Care Excellence: women, 11.8% [95% CI, 11.4-12.1], men, 15.7% [95% CI, 15.3-16.2]; World Health Organization: women, 9.2% [95% CI, 8.9-9.5], men, 11.0% [95% CI, 10.6-11.4]). Individuals who were unaware that they have hypertension were the primary contributor to differences in the proportion needing treatment under different guideline criteria. Differences in the proportion needing blood pressure-lowering medications were largest in the oldest (65-69 years) age group (American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association: women, 60.2% [95% CI, 58.8-61.6], men, 70.1% [95% CI, 68.8-71.3]; World Health Organization: women, 20.1% [95% CI, 18.8-21.3], men, 24.1.0% [95% CI, 22.3-25.9]). For both women and men and across all guidelines, countries in the European and Eastern Mediterranean regions had the highest proportion of adults in need of blood pressure-lowering medicines, whereas the South and Central Americas had the lowest.

Conclusions: There was substantial variation in the proportion of adults in need of blood pressure-lowering medications depending on which hypertension guideline was used. Given the great implications of this choice for health system capacity, policy makers will need to carefully consider which guideline they should adopt when scaling up hypertension care in their country.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.120.051620DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7940589PMC
March 2021

Population attributable fraction estimates of cardiovascular diseases in different levels of plasma total cholesterol in a large-scale cross-sectional study: a focus on prevention strategies and treatment coverage.

J Diabetes Metab Disord 2020 Dec 10;19(2):1453-1463. Epub 2020 Nov 10.

Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, No. 10, Al-e-Ahmad and Chamran Highway intersection, Tehran, Iran.

Purpose: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the main cause of deaths among non-communicable diseases. Arguments about the best prevention strategy to control CVDs' risk factors continue. We evaluated the population attributable fraction (PAF) of CVDs in different levels of plasma cholesterol.

Methods: Patients' data were obtained from Iran STEPs 2016 study. In phase 0 we estimated PAF regardless of cholesterol levels and clinical factors. In phase 1 we calculated PAF based on three levels of cholesterol (<200, 200-240, ≥240 mg/dl). In phase 2 we estimated PAF in 3 groups considering lipid-lowering drugs. In phase 3 all treated participants and not treated hypercholesterolemic people were included, to evaluate the impact of treatment. Estimations were done for Ischemic heart disease (IHD) and ischemic stroke (IS), and for two sex.

Results: In phase 0, the highest PAF for IHD and IS were 0.35 (95% confidence interval 0.29-0.41) and 0.22 (0.18-0.27) for females and 0.27 (0.22-0.32) and 0.18 (0.14-0.22) for males. In phase 1, the highest PAF belonged to population with cholesterol ≥240 mg/dl and IHD, as 0.90 (0.85-0.94) for females, and 0.90 (0.85-0.96) for males. In phase 2, the pre-hypercholesterolemic group had higher PAFs than the hypercholesteremic group in most of the population. Phase 3 showed treatment coverage significantly lowered fractions in all age groups, for both causes.

Conclusion: An urgent action plan and a change in preventive programs of health guidelines are needed to stop the vast burden of hypercholesterolemia in the pre-hypercholesterolemic population. Population-based prevention strategies need to be more considered to control further CVDs.

Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40200-020-00673-3.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40200-020-00673-3DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7843742PMC
December 2020

Estimating the attributable risk of vascular disorders in different ranges of fasting plasma glucose and assessing the effectiveness of anti-diabetes agents on risk reduction; questioning the current diagnostic criteria.

J Diabetes Metab Disord 2020 Dec 16;19(2):1423-1430. Epub 2020 Nov 16.

Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, No. 10, Al-e-Ahmad and Chamran Highway intersection, Tehran, Iran.

Introduction: Attributable risk of cardiovascular disorders (CVDs) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) in association with diabetes and pre-diabetes is under debate. Moreover, the role of anti-diabetes agents in risk reduction of such conditions is obscure. The purpose of this work is to define the population attributable fraction (PAF) of CVDs and CKD in different rages of plasma glucose.

Method: Iranian stepwise approach for surveillance of non-communicable disease risk factors (STEPs) was used to calculate PAF in four subsequent phases. Phase 0: whole population regardless of diagnosis; Phase I: in three CVD risk groups: minimal risk (FPG < 100 mg/dL), low risk (FPG 100-126 mg/dL), and high risk (FPG ≥ 126 mg/dL) groups; Phase II: three diagnostic groups: normal, pre-diabetes, and diabetes; Phase III: diabetes patients either receiving or not receiving anti-diabetes agents.

Result: A total of 19,503 participants [female-to-male ratio 1.17:1] had at least one FPG measurement and were enrolled. Phase 0: PAF of young adults was lower in the general population (PAF range for CVDs 0.05 ─ 0.27 [95% CI 0.00 ─ 0.32]; CKD 0.03 ─ 0.41 [0.00 ─ 0.62]). Phase I: High-risk group comprised the largest attributable risks (0.46 ─ 0.97 [0.32 ─ 1]; 0.74 ─ 0.95 [0.58 ─ 1]) compared to low-risk (0.16 ─ 0.41 [0.04 ─ 0.66]; 0.29 ─ 0.35 [0.07 ─ 0.5]) and minimal risk groups (negligible estimates) with higher values in young adults. Phase II: higher values were detected in younger ages for diabetes (0.38 ─ 0.95 [0.29 ─ 1]; 0.65 ─ 0.94 [0.59 ─ 1] and pre-diabetes patients (0.15 ─ 0.4 [0.13 ─ 0.45]; 0.26 ─ 0.35 [0.22 ─ 0.4]) but not normal counterparts (negligible estimates). Phase III: Similar estimates were found in both treatment (0.31 ─ 0.98 [0.17 ─ 1]; 0.21 ─ 0.93 [0.12 ─ 1]) and drug-naïve (0.39 ─ 0.9 [0.27 ─ 1]; 0.63 ─ 0.97 [0.59 ─ 1]) groups with larger values for younger ages.

Conclusion: Globalized preventions have not effectively controlled the burden of vascular events in Iran. CVDs and CKD PAFs estimated for pre-diabetes were not remarkably different from normal and diabetes counterparts, arguing current diagnostic criteria. Treatment strategies in high-risk groups are believed to be more beneficial. However, the effectiveness of medical interventions for diabetes in controlling CVDs and CKD burden in Iran is questionable.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40200-020-00663-5DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7843770PMC
December 2020

Lifetime Prevalence of Cervical Cancer Screening in 55 Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

JAMA 2020 10;324(15):1532-1542

Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Medical Faculty and University Hospital, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany.

Importance: The World Health Organization is developing a global strategy to eliminate cervical cancer, with goals for screening prevalence among women aged 30 through 49 years. However, evidence on prevalence levels of cervical cancer screening in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is sparse.

Objective: To determine lifetime cervical cancer screening prevalence in LMICs and its variation across and within world regions and countries.

Design, Setting, And Participants: Analysis of cross-sectional nationally representative household surveys carried out in 55 LMICs from 2005 through 2018. The median response rate across surveys was 93.8% (range, 64.0%-99.3%). The population-based sample consisted of 1 136 289 women aged 15 years or older, of whom 6885 (0.6%) had missing information for the survey question on cervical cancer screening.

Exposures: World region, country; countries' economic, social, and health system characteristics; and individuals' sociodemographic characteristics.

Main Outcomes And Measures: Self-report of having ever had a screening test for cervical cancer.

Results: Of the 1 129 404 women included in the analysis, 542 475 were aged 30 through 49 years. A country-level median of 43.6% (interquartile range [IQR], 13.9%-77.3%; range, 0.3%-97.4%) of women aged 30 through 49 years self-reported to have ever been screened, with countries in Latin America and the Caribbean having the highest prevalence (country-level median, 84.6%; IQR, 65.7%-91.1%; range, 11.7%-97.4%) and those in sub-Saharan Africa the lowest prevalence (country-level median, 16.9%; IQR, 3.7%-31.0%; range, 0.9%-50.8%). There was large variation in the self-reported lifetime prevalence of cervical cancer screening among countries within regions and among countries with similar levels of per capita gross domestic product and total health expenditure. Within countries, women who lived in rural areas, had low educational attainment, or had low household wealth were generally least likely to self-report ever having been screened.

Conclusions And Relevance: In this cross-sectional study of data collected in 55 low- and middle-income countries from 2005 through 2018, there was wide variation between countries in the self-reported lifetime prevalence of cervical cancer screening. However, the median prevalence was only 44%, supporting the need to increase the rate of screening.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.16244DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7576410PMC
October 2020

Availability, Accessibility, and Coverage of Needle and Syringe Programs in Prisons in the European Union.

Epidemiol Rev 2020 01;42(1):19-26

Needle and syringe programs (NSPs) are among the most effective interventions for controlling the transmission of infection among people who inject drugs in prisons. We evaluated the availability, accessibility, and coverage of NSPs in prisons in European Union (EU) countries. In line with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) criteria, we systematically searched 4 databases of peer-reviewed publications (MEDLINE (PubMed), ISI Web of Science, EBSCO, and ScienceDirect) and 53 databases containing gray literature to collect data published from January 2008 to August 2018. A total of 23,969 documents (17,297 papers and 6,672 gray documents) were identified, of which 26 were included in the study. In 2018, imprisonment rates in 28 EU countries ranged between 51 per 100,000 population in Finland and 235 per 100,000 population in Lithuania. Only 4 countries were found to have NSPs in prisons: Germany (in 1 prison), Luxembourg (no coverage data were found), Romania (available in more than 50% of prisons), and Spain (in all prisons). Portugal stopped an NSP after a 6-month pilot phase. Despite the protective impact of prison-based NSPs on infection transmission, only 4 EU countries distribute sterile syringes among people who inject drugs in prisons, and coverage of the programs within these countries is very low. Since most prisoners will eventually return to the community, lack of NSPs in EU prisons not only is a threat to the health of prisoners but also endangers public health.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/epirev/mxaa003DOI Listing
January 2020

National and provincial population-based incidence and mortality of skin cancer in Iran; 1990-2016.

Asia Pac J Clin Oncol 2021 Oct 6;17(5):e162-e169. Epub 2020 Aug 6.

Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Purpose: To estimate the national and provincial estimates of incidence, mortality and burden of skin cancer in Iran from 1990 to 2016.

Methods: The data for incidence and mortality rates were collected from the National and Subnational Burden of Diseases (NASBOD) project. We employed a two-stage spatiotemporal model to estimate cancer incidence based on sex, age, province and year. The national and subnational age and gender specific trends were calculated from 1990 to 2016. Mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) was considered as an indicator of cancer care quality.

Results: At the national level, the age standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of skin cancer decreased 1.29 times, from 23.6 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 17.1-31.1) per 100 000 persons in 1990 to 18.2 (95% UI, 15.8-20.6) in 2016; a similar trend was seen in both males and females. The highest ASIR was seen in 2000. National estimates of the age standardized mortality rate (ASMR) steadily decreased from 2.8 per 100 000 persons (95% UI, 1.9-4.1) in 1990 to 0.2 (95% UI, 0.1-0.3) per 100 000 persons in 2015. The MIR decreased continuously from 1990 to 2015 in all provinces and among both genders. The age standardized rate of years of life lost also decreased 8.7 times, from 30.1 (95% UI, 20.2-45.1) in 1990 to 3.5 (95% UI, 2.3-5.3) in 2015.

Conclusions: During the study period, skin cancer ASIR, ASMR and burden steadily decreased among the Iranian population. The declining MIR for all provinces from 1990 to 2015 was a proxy of early detection and high-quality medical care for skin cancer in Iran. These results can be beneficial to policymakers and health planners to make correct decisions and determine proper resource allocation.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ajco.13376DOI Listing
October 2021

National and Subnational Trends of Incidence and Mortality of Female Genital Cancers in Iran; 1990-2016.

Arch Iran Med 2020 07 1;23(7):434-444. Epub 2020 Jul 1.

Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Background: The present study aims to assess the incidence and mortality rates of gynecological cancers and their changes from 1990 to 2016 at national and subnational levels in Iran.

Methods: Annual estimates of incidence and mortality for gynecological cancers from 1990 to 2016 at national and subnational levels were generated as part of a larger project entitled National and Subnational Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (NASBOD). After the precise processing of data extracted from the Iran Cancer Registry, annual age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated for each cancer, province, year and age group during the period of the study.

Results: In 2016, gynecological cancers constituted 8.0% of new cancer cases among women of all ages compared to 3.7% of new cases of cancer among women in 1990. The incidence rate of gynecological cancers has increased from 2.5 (0.9-5.6) per 100000 women in 1990 to 12.3 (9.3-15.7) per 100000 women in 2016, and the most common gynecological cancer has changed from cervical cancer in 1990 to corpus uteri cancer in 2016. Age-standardized incidence rates of ovarian, corpus uteri and vulvovaginal cancers increased from 1.3 (0.5-2.4), 1.7 (0.6-3.0), and 0.3 (0.0-0.7) in 1990 to 4.4 (3.6-5.2), 9.9 (6.8-13.4), and 0.6 (0.2-1.0) in 2016, respectively, showing a 3.3, 5.8 and 1.7-fold increase during this period. Age-standardized incidence rate of cervical cancer was 2.4 (1.7-3.3) cases per 100000 women in 2016 and did not differ significantly from the beginning of the study. An overall reduction was seen in national mortality to incidence ratios (MIR) from 2000 to 2015.

Conclusion: The incidence rates of all gynecological cancers in different provinces have shown a converging trend that could indicate that attempts toward health equality have been effective. The declining trend of MIR could be interpreted as advancements in detection of cancer in its early stages and also improvements in treatments, in turn reflecting improvements in access to and quality of care.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.34172/aim.2020.40DOI Listing
July 2020

The trend of fall-related mortality at national and provincial levels in Iran from 1990 to 2015.

Int J Inj Contr Saf Promot 2020 Dec 10;27(4):403-411. Epub 2020 Jul 10.

Sina Trauma and Surgery Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Falls are one of the major causes of unintentional injuries. Understanding the epidemiology of fall-related mortality helps to identify the root causes of this event and planning preventive strategies to inhibit falls. The aim of this study was to assess the trend of fall-related mortality rate and its epidemiological patterns based on sex and age-groups at national and subnational levels in Iran during the years 1990 to 2015. All data were gathered from Death Registration Systems, cemetery databases of Tehran and Isfahan, the Demographic and Health Survey of 2000 and three rounds of national population and housing censuses. The age-standardized death rate (ASDR) due to falls per 100,000 people decreased from 2.61 (95% Uncertainty Interval (UI): 1.94-3.51) in 1990 to 2.13 (1.62-2.80) in 2015 at national level. Males were at higher risk of death due to falls than females. Our data showed that the elderly population was at higher risk of death due to falls and individuals less than 4-year old had the highest fall-related mortality rate among children and adolescents. Our data should be used to accelerate interventions to reduce fall-related mortality.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17457300.2020.1790614DOI Listing
December 2020

Trend of Appendicitis Mortality at National and Provincial Levels in Iran from 1990 to 2015.

Arch Iran Med 2020 05 1;23(5):302-311. Epub 2020 May 1.

Sina Trauma and Surgery Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Background: Appendicitis is one of the most preventable causes of death worldwide. We aimed to determine the trend of mortality due to appendicitis by sex and age at national and provincial levels in Iran during 26 years.

Methods: Data were collected from Iran Death Registration System (DRS), cemetery databanks in Tehran and Esfahan, and the national population and housing censuses of Iran. The estimated population was determined for each group from 1990 to 2015 using a growth model. Incompleteness, misalignment, and misclassification in the DRS were addressed and multiple imputation methods were used for dealing with missing data. ICD-10 codes were converted to Global Burden of Disease (GBD) codes to allow comparison of the results with the GBD study. A Spatio-Temporal model and Gaussian Process Regression were used to predict the levels and trends in child and adult mortality rates, as well as cause fractions.

Results: From 1990 to 2015, 6,982 deaths due to appendicitis were estimated in Iran. The age-standardized mortality rate per 100000 decreased from 0.72 (95% UI: 0.46-1.12) in 1990 to 0.11 (0.07-0.16) in 2015, a reduction of 84.72% over the course of 26 years. The male: female ratio was 1.13 during the 26 years of the study with an average annual percent change of -2.31% for women and -2.63% for men. Among men and women, appendicitis mortality rate had the highest magnitude of decline in the province of Zanjan and the lowest in the province of Hormozgan. In 1990, the lowest age-standardized appendicitis-related mortality was observed in both women and men in the province of Alborz and the highest mortality rate among men were observed in the province of Lorestan. In 2015, the lowest mortality rates in women and men were in the province of Tehran. The highest mortality rates in women were in Hormozgan, and in men were in Golestan province.

Conclusion: The mortality rate due to appendicitis has declined at national and provincial levels in Iran. Understanding the causes of differences across provinces and the trend over years can be useful in priority setting for policy makers to inform preventive actions to further decrease mortality from appendicitis.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.34172/aim.2020.19DOI Listing
May 2020

Prevalence of Non-Engineered Buildings and Population at Risk for a Probable Earthquake: A Cross-Sectional Study from an Informal Settlement in Tehran, Iran.

Iran J Public Health 2020 Jan;49(1):114-124

Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Background: Constructions in informal settlements not respected any applying rules, regulations of urban planning, and building codes with high population density, are the municipality challenge. We aimed to identify level of buildings seismic vulnerability and population at risk in Tehran's Farahzad informal settlement in 2017.

Methods: In this observational cross-sectional study, residential buildings were assessed for seismic performance of constructions. We screened 160 buildings according to Iranian national guidelines by Rapid Seismic Visual Screening Method as a tool to calculate and determine Level of Retrofitting (L) scores of buildings. We also interviewed residents of the buildings to collect data regarding socio-demographic data, individual disability status, Disaster Assessment of Readiness and Training (DART) regarding household disaster preparedness, and time occupancy in the buildings.

Results: Overall, 160 buildings with 209 households and 957 individuals were surveyed. 97.5% of buildings were formed of heavy construction materials. None of them were categorized as engineered buildings and L of residential buildings ranged from 82.4% to 163.8% with a mean 117.9%. L scores of more than 100% were capped as 100%. Vulnerable groups of the sample population include under-five years old (8.7%), 60 yr old and above (6.7%), and 9.1% of households had at least one disabled member. 16.7% of households were living in homes with dense area. The DART score for 94.3% of surveyed households was zero.

Conclusion: Disaster managers in Tehran municipality must design and implement a comprehensive risk reduction plan in poor urban areas as vulnerable regions for earthquake hazard.
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http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7152627PMC
January 2020

Patterns of Obesity and Overweight in the Iranian Population: Findings of STEPs 2016.

Front Endocrinol (Lausanne) 2020 26;11:42. Epub 2020 Feb 26.

Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Obesity has become a common health problem all over the world. Benefiting from a national representative sample, the present study aimed to estimate the prevalence of overweight/obesity and the distribution of Body Mass Index (BMI) levels in the Iranian adult population, by sex, age, and geographical distribution. This was a large-scale national cross-sectional study of Non-communicable Diseases risk factor surveillance in Iran. Through a systematic random sampling cluster, 31,050 Iranian adult participants aged 18 years and over were enrolled in the study. The main research tools were used to assess three different levels of data, namely: (1) demographic, epidemiologic, and risk-related behavioral data, (2) physical measurements, and (3) lab measurements. Anthropometric measurements were taken using standard protocols and calibrated instruments. In 2016, the national prevalence rates of normal weight, obesity, and overweight/obesity among Iranian adults were, 36.7% (95% CI: 36.1-37.3), 22.7% (22.2-23.2), and 59.3% (58.7-59.9), respectively. There was a significant difference between the prevalence of obesity among males [15.3% (14.7-15.9)] and females [29.8% (29.0-30.5)] ( < 0.001). The 55-64 [31.5% (30.1-33.0)] and the 18-24 [8.3% (7.3-9.4)] year-old age groups had the highest and lowest prevalence of obesity, respectively. The results show a geographical pattern at provincial level, where the level of BMI increases among populations ranging from the southeastern to the northwestern regions of the country. The highest provincial prevalence of obesity was almost 2.5-fold higher than the lowest provincial prevalence. We found a significant difference between the prevalence of obesity in males and females. Moreover, there was a considerable difference in the geographical pattern of the prevalence of obesity and overweight. Further evidence is warranted to promote strategies and interventions related to prevention and control of factors that are associated with weight gain.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2020.00042DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7055062PMC
February 2021
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