Publications by authors named "Nicholas L S Roberts"

13 Publications

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Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study.

Inj Prev 2020 10 24;26(Supp 1):i125-i153. Epub 2020 Aug 24.

Department of Pharmacy, Adigrat University, Adigrat, Ethiopia.

Background: While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria.

Methods: In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced.

Results: GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes.

Conclusions: GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043531DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7571362PMC
October 2020

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

Inj Prev 2020 10 24;26(Supp 1):i96-i114. Epub 2020 Apr 24.

Faculty of Health Sciences - Health Management and Policy, American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon.

Background: Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries.

Methods: We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).

Findings: In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505).

Interpretation: Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043494DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7571366PMC
October 2020

Unintentional injuries in Mexico, 1990-2017: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

Inj Prev 2020 10 1;26(Supp 1):i154-i161. Epub 2020 Apr 1.

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.

Background: To date, the burden of injury in Mexico has not been comprehensively assessed using recent advances in population health research, including those in the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (GBD 2017).

Methods: We used GBD 2017 for burden of unintentional injury estimates, including transport injuries, for Mexico and each state in Mexico from 1990 to 2017. We examined subnational variation, age patterns, sex differences and time trends for all injury burden metrics.

Results: Unintentional injury deaths in Mexico decreased from 45 363 deaths (44 662 to 46 038) in 1990 to 42 702 (41 439 to 43 745) in 2017, while age-standardised mortality rates decreased from 65.2 (64.4 to 66.1) in 1990 to 35.1 (34.1 to 36.0) per 100 000 in 2017. In terms of non-fatal outcomes, there were 3 120 211 (2 879 993 to 3 377 945) new injury cases in 1990, which increased to 5 234 214 (4 812 615 to 5 701 669) new cases of injury in 2017. We estimated 2 761 957 (2 676 267 to 2 859 777) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to injuries in Mexico in 1990 compared with 2 376 952 (2 224 588 to 2 551 004) DALYs in 2017. We found subnational variation in health loss across Mexico's states, including concentrated burden in Tabasco, Chihuahua and Zacatecas.

Conclusions: In Mexico, from 1990 to 2017, mortality due to unintentional injuries has decreased, while non-fatal incident cases have increased. However, unintentional injuries continue to cause considerable mortality and morbidity, with patterns that vary by state, age, sex and year. Future research should focus on targeted interventions to decrease injury burden in high-risk populations.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043532DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7571365PMC
October 2020

Global trends of hand and wrist trauma: a systematic analysis of fracture and digit amputation using the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study.

Inj Prev 2020 10 13;26(Supp 1):i115-i124. Epub 2020 Mar 13.

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA.

Background: As global rates of mortality decrease, rates of non-fatal injury have increased, particularly in low Socio-demographic Index (SDI) nations. We hypothesised this global pattern of non-fatal injury would be demonstrated in regard to bony hand and wrist trauma over the 27-year study period.

Methods: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 was used to estimate prevalence, age-standardised incidence and years lived with disability for hand trauma in 195 countries from 1990 to 2017. Individual injuries included hand and wrist fractures, thumb amputations and non-thumb digit amputations.

Results: The global incidence of hand trauma has only modestly decreased since 1990. In 2017, the age-standardised incidence of hand and wrist fractures was 179 per 100 000 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 146 to 217), whereas the less common injuries of thumb and non-thumb digit amputation were 24 (95% UI 17 to 34) and 56 (95% UI 43 to 74) per 100 000, respectively. Rates of injury vary greatly by region, and improvements have not been equally distributed. The highest burden of hand trauma is currently reported in high SDI countries. However, low-middle and middle SDI countries have increasing rates of hand trauma by as much at 25%.

Conclusions: Certain regions are noted to have high rates of hand trauma over the study period. Low-middle and middle SDI countries, however, have demonstrated increasing rates of fracture and amputation over the last 27 years. This trend is concerning as access to quality and subspecialised surgical hand care is often limiting in these resource-limited regions.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043495DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7571361PMC
October 2020

Falls in older aged adults in 22 European countries: incidence, mortality and burden of disease from 1990 to 2017.

Inj Prev 2020 10 28;26(Supp 1):i67-i74. Epub 2020 Feb 28.

Health Systems and Policy Research Unit, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria.

Introduction: Falls in older aged adults are an important public health problem. Insight into differences in fall-related injury rates between countries can serve as important input for identifying and evaluating prevention strategies. The objectives of this study were to compare Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates on incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to fall-related injury in older adults across 22 countries in the Western European region and to examine changes over a 28-year period.

Methods: We performed a secondary database descriptive study using the GBD 2017 results on age-standardised fall-related injury in older adults aged 70 years and older in 22 countries from 1990 to 2017.

Results: In 2017, in the Western European region, 13 840 per 100 000 (uncertainty interval (UI) 11 837-16 113) older adults sought medical treatment for fall-related injury, ranging from 7594 per 100 000 (UI 6326-9032) in Greece to 19 796 per 100 000 (UI 15 536-24 233) in Norway. Since 1990, fall-related injury DALY rates showed little change for the whole region, but patterns varied widely between countries. Some countries (eg, Belgium and Netherlands) have lost their favourable positions due to an increasing fall-related injury burden of disease since 1990.

Conclusions: From 1990 to 2017, there was considerable variation in fall-related injury incidence, mortality, DALY rates and its composites in the 22 countries in the Western European region. It may be useful to assess which fall prevention measures have been taken in countries that showed continuous low or decreasing incidence, death and DALY rates despite ageing of the population.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043347DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7571349PMC
October 2020

The burden of unintentional drowning: global, regional and national estimates of mortality from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study.

Inj Prev 2020 10 20;26(Supp 1):i83-i95. Epub 2020 Feb 20.

The George Institute for Global Health, New Delhi, India.

Background: Drowning is a leading cause of injury-related mortality globally. Unintentional drowning (International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 10 codes W65-74 and ICD9 E910) is one of the 30 mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive causes of injury-related mortality in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. This study's objective is to describe unintentional drowning using GBD estimates from 1990 to 2017.

Methods: Unintentional drowning from GBD 2017 was estimated for cause-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs), age, sex, country, region, Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile, and trends from 1990 to 2017. GBD 2017 used standard GBD methods for estimating mortality from drowning.

Results: Globally, unintentional drowning mortality decreased by 44.5% between 1990 and 2017, from 531 956 (uncertainty interval (UI): 484 107 to 572 854) to 295 210 (284 493 to 306 187) deaths. Global age-standardised mortality rates decreased 57.4%, from 9.3 (8.5 to 10.0) in 1990 to 4.0 (3.8 to 4.1) per 100 000 per annum in 2017. Unintentional drowning-associated mortality was generally higher in children, males and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. China, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh accounted for 51.2% of all drowning deaths in 2017. Oceania was the region with the highest rate of age-standardised YLLs in 2017, with 45 434 (40 850 to 50 539) YLLs per 100 000 across both sexes.

Conclusions: There has been a decline in global drowning rates. This study shows that the decline was not consistent across countries. The results reinforce the need for continued and improved policy, prevention and research efforts, with a focus on low- and middle-income countries.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043484DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7571364PMC
October 2020

The global burden of falls: global, regional and national estimates of morbidity and mortality from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

Inj Prev 2020 10 15;26(Supp 1):i3-i11. Epub 2020 Jan 15.

Department of Hypertension, Pomeranian Medical University, Szczecin, Poland.

Background: Falls can lead to severe health loss including death. Past research has shown that falls are an important cause of death and disability worldwide. The Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (GBD 2017) provides a comprehensive assessment of morbidity and mortality from falls.

Methods: Estimates for mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were produced for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017 for all ages using the GBD 2017 framework. Distributions of the bodily injury (eg, hip fracture) were estimated using hospital records.

Results: Globally, the age-standardised incidence of falls was 2238 (1990-2532) per 100 000 in 2017, representing a decline of 3.7% (7.4 to 0.3) from 1990 to 2017. Age-standardised prevalence was 5186 (4622-5849) per 100 000 in 2017, representing a decline of 6.5% (7.6 to 5.4) from 1990 to 2017. Age-standardised mortality rate was 9.2 (8.5-9.8) per 100 000 which equated to 695 771 (644 927-741 720) deaths in 2017. Globally, falls resulted in 16 688 088 (15 101 897-17 636 830) YLLs, 19 252 699 (13 725 429-26 140 433) YLDs and 35 940 787 (30 185 695-42 903 289) DALYs across all ages. The most common injury sustained by fall victims is fracture of patella, tibia or fibula, or ankle. Globally, age-specific YLD rates increased with age.

Conclusions: This study shows that the burden of falls is substantial. Investing in further research, fall prevention strategies and access to care is critical.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043286DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7571347PMC
October 2020

Morbidity and mortality from road injuries: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

Inj Prev 2020 10 8;26(Supp 1):i46-i56. Epub 2020 Jan 8.

Department of Public Health, Mizan-Tepi University, Teppi, Ethiopia.

Background: The global burden of road injuries is known to follow complex geographical, temporal and demographic patterns. While health loss from road injuries is a major topic of global importance, there has been no recent comprehensive assessment that includes estimates for every age group, sex and country over recent years.

Methods: We used results from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study to report incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, deaths, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life years for all locations in the GBD 2017 hierarchy from 1990 to 2017 for road injuries. Second, we measured mortality-to-incidence ratios by location. Third, we assessed the distribution of the natures of injury (eg, traumatic brain injury) that result from each road injury.

Results: Globally, 1 243 068 (95% uncertainty interval 1 191 889 to 1 276 940) people died from road injuries in 2017 out of 54 192 330 (47 381 583 to 61 645 891) new cases of road injuries. Age-standardised incidence rates of road injuries increased between 1990 and 2017, while mortality rates decreased. Regionally, age-standardised mortality rates decreased in all but two regions, South Asia and Southern Latin America, where rates did not change significantly. Nine of 21 GBD regions experienced significant increases in age-standardised incidence rates, while 10 experienced significant decreases and two experienced no significant change.

Conclusions: While road injury mortality has improved in recent decades, there are worsening rates of incidence and significant geographical heterogeneity. These findings indicate that more research is needed to better understand how road injuries can be prevented.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043302DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7571357PMC
October 2020

Burden of injury along the development spectrum: associations between the Socio-demographic Index and disability-adjusted life year estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

Inj Prev 2020 10 8;26(Supp 1):i12-i26. Epub 2020 Jan 8.

School of Public Health, Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, New Zealand.

Background: The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates.

Methods: Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm-the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate.

Results: For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced.

Conclusions: The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043296DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7571356PMC
October 2020

Burden of injuries in Nepal, 1990-2017: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

Inj Prev 2020 10 8;26(Supp 1):i57-i66. Epub 2020 Jan 8.

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA.

Background: Nepal is a low-income country undergoing rapid political, economic and social development. To date, there has been little evidence published on the burden of injuries during this period of transition.

Methods: The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) is a comprehensive measurement of population health outcomes in terms of morbidity and mortality. We analysed the GBD 2017 estimates for deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injuries to ascertain the burden of injuries in Nepal from 1990 to 2017.

Results: There were 16 831 (95% uncertainty interval 13 323 to 20 579) deaths caused by injuries (9.21% of all-cause deaths (7.45% to 11.25%)) in 2017 while the proportion of deaths from injuries was 6.31% in 1990. Overall, the injury-specific age-standardised mortality rate declined from 88.91 (71.54 to 105.31) per 100 000 in 1990 to 70.25 (56.75 to 85.11) per 100 000 in 2017. In 2017, 4.11% (2.47% to 6.10%) of all deaths in Nepal were attributed to transport injuries, 3.54% (2.86% to 4.08%) were attributed to unintentional injuries and 1.55% (1.16% to 1.85%) were attributed to self-harm and interpersonal violence. From 1990 to 2017, road injuries, falls and self-harm all rose in rank for all causes of death.

Conclusions: The increase in injury-related deaths and DALYs in Nepal between 1990 and 2017 indicates the need for further research and prevention interventions. Injuries remain an important public health burden in Nepal with the magnitude and trend of burden varying over time by cause-specific, sex and age group. Findings from this study may be used by the federal, provincial and local governments in Nepal to prioritise injury prevention as a public health agenda and as evidence for country-specific interventions.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043309DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7571348PMC
October 2020

Burden of injuries in Vietnam: emerging trends from a decade of economic achievement.

Inj Prev 2020 10 8;26(Supp 1):i75-i82. Epub 2020 Jan 8.

Faculty of Social Science, Behaviors and Health Education, Hanoi University of Public Health, Hanoi, Vietnam.

Background: Vietnam has been one of the fastest-growing world economies in the past decade. The burden of injuries can be affected by economic growth given the increased exposure to causes of injury as well as decreased morbidity and mortality of those that experience injury. It is of interest to evaluate the trends in injury burden that occurred alongside Vietnam's economic growth in the past decade.

Methods: Results from Global Burden of Disease 2017 were obtained and reviewed. Estimates of incidence, cause-specific mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, disability-adjusted life years were analysed and reported for 30 causes of injury in Vietnam from 2007 to 2017.

Results: Between 2007 and 2017, the age-standardised incidence rate of all injuries increased by 14.6% (11.5%-18.2%), while the age-standardised mortality rate decreased by 11.6% (3.0%-20.2%). Interpersonal violence experienced the largest increase in age-standardised incidence (28.3% (17.6%-40.1%)), while exposure to forces of nature had the largest decrease in age-standardised mortality (47.1% (37.9%-54.6%)). The five leading causes of injury in both 2007 and 2017 were road injuries, falls, exposure to mechanical forces, interpersonal violence and other unintentional injuries, all of which increased in incidence from 2007 to 2017. Injury burden varied markedly by age and sex.

Conclusions: The rapid expansions of economic growth in Vietnam as well as improvements in the Sociodemographic Index have occurred alongside dynamic patterns in injury burden. These results should be used to develop and implement prevention and treatment programme.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043352DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7571350PMC
October 2020

Epidemiology of facial fractures: incidence, prevalence and years lived with disability estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study.

Inj Prev 2020 10 8;26(Supp 1):i27-i35. Epub 2020 Jan 8.

Hematology-Oncology and Stem Cell Transplantation Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Background: The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) has historically produced estimates of causes of injury such as falls but not the resulting types of injuries that occur. The objective of this study was to estimate the global incidence, prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) due to facial fractures and to estimate the leading injurious causes of facial fracture.

Methods: We obtained results from GBD 2017. First, the study estimated the incidence from each injury cause (eg, falls), and then the proportion of each cause that would result in facial fracture being the most disabling injury. Incidence, prevalence and YLDs of facial fractures are then calculated across causes.

Results: Globally, in 2017, there were 7 538 663 (95% uncertainty interval 6 116 489 to 9 493 113) new cases, 1 819 732 (1 609 419 to 2 091 618) prevalent cases, and 117 402 (73 266 to 169 689) YLDs due to facial fractures. In terms of age-standardised incidence, prevalence and YLDs, the global rates were 98 (80 to 123) per 100 000, 23 (20 to 27) per 100 000, and 2 (1 to 2) per 100 000, respectively. Facial fractures were most concentrated in Central Europe. Falls were the predominant cause in most regions.

Conclusions: Facial fractures are predominantly caused by falls and occur worldwide. Healthcare systems and public health agencies should investigate methods of all injury prevention. It is important for healthcare systems in every part of the world to ensure access to treatment resources.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043297DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7571355PMC
October 2020

Epidemiology of injuries from fire, heat and hot substances: global, regional and national morbidity and mortality estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study.

Inj Prev 2020 10 18;26(Supp 1):i36-i45. Epub 2019 Dec 18.

Institute of Public Health Kalyani, Kalyani, India.

Background: Past research has shown how fires, heat and hot substances are important causes of health loss globally. Detailed estimates of the morbidity and mortality from these injuries could help drive preventative measures and improved access to care.

Methods: We used the Global Burden of Disease 2017 framework to produce three main results. First, we produced results on incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, deaths, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life years from 1990 to 2017 for 195 countries and territories. Second, we analysed these results to measure mortality-to-incidence ratios by location. Third, we reported the measures above in terms of the cause of fire, heat and hot substances and the types of bodily injuries that result.

Results: Globally, there were 8 991 468 (7 481 218 to 10 740 897) new fire, heat and hot substance injuries in 2017 with 120 632 (101 630 to 129 383) deaths. At the global level, the age-standardised mortality caused by fire, heat and hot substances significantly declined from 1990 to 2017, but regionally there was variability in age-standardised incidence with some regions experiencing an increase (eg, Southern Latin America) and others experiencing a significant decrease (eg, High-income North America).

Conclusions: The incidence and mortality of injuries that result from fire, heat and hot substances affect every region of the world but are most concentrated in middle and lower income areas. More resources should be invested in measuring these injuries as well as in improving infrastructure, advancing safety measures and ensuring access to care.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043299DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7571358PMC
October 2020
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