Publications by authors named "Martin Landray"

96 Publications

Potential health and economic impacts of dexamethasone treatment for patients with COVID-19.

Nat Commun 2021 02 10;12(1):915. Epub 2021 Feb 10.

Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

Dexamethasone can reduce mortality in hospitalised COVID-19 patients needing oxygen and ventilation by 18% and 36%, respectively. Here, we estimate the potential number of lives saved and life years gained if this treatment were to be rolled out in the UK and globally, as well as the cost-effectiveness of implementing this intervention. Assuming SARS-CoV-2 exposure levels of 5% to 15%, we estimate that, for the UK, approximately 12,000 (4,250 - 27,000) lives could be saved between July and December 2020. Assuming that dexamethasone has a similar effect size in settings where access to oxygen therapies is limited, this would translate into approximately 650,000 (240,000 - 1,400,000) lives saved globally over the same time period. If dexamethasone acts differently in these settings, the impact could be less than half of this value. To estimate the full potential of dexamethasone in the global fight against COVID-19, it is essential to perform clinical research in settings with limited access to oxygen and/or ventilators, for example in low- and middle-income countries.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21134-2DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7875992PMC
February 2021

Hydroxychloroquine in Hospitalized Patients with Covid-19. Reply.

N Engl J Med 2021 Feb 10;384(9). Epub 2021 Feb 10.

University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/NEJMc2035374DOI Listing
February 2021

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the detection and management of colorectal cancer in England: a population-based study.

Lancet Gastroenterol Hepatol 2021 03 15;6(3):199-208. Epub 2021 Jan 15.

Clinical Trial Service Unit and Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Medical Research Council Population Health Research Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Big Data Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

Background: There are concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a negative effect on cancer care but there is little direct evidence to quantify any effect. This study aims to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the detection and management of colorectal cancer in England.

Methods: Data were extracted from four population-based datasets spanning NHS England (the National Cancer Cancer Waiting Time Monitoring, Monthly Diagnostic, Secondary Uses Service Admitted Patient Care and the National Radiotherapy datasets) for all referrals, colonoscopies, surgical procedures, and courses of rectal radiotherapy from Jan 1, 2019, to Oct 31, 2020, related to colorectal cancer in England. Differences in patterns of care were investigated between 2019 and 2020. Percentage reductions in monthly numbers and proportions were calculated.

Findings: As compared to the monthly average in 2019, in April, 2020, there was a 63% (95% CI 53-71) reduction (from 36 274 to 13 440) in the monthly number of 2-week referrals for suspected cancer and a 92% (95% CI 89-95) reduction in the number of colonoscopies (from 46 441 to 3484). Numbers had just recovered by October, 2020. This resulted in a 22% (95% CI 8-34) relative reduction in the number of cases referred for treatment (from a monthly average of 2781 in 2019 to 2158 referrals in April, 2020). By October, 2020, the monthly rate had returned to 2019 levels but did not exceed it, suggesting that, from April to October, 2020, over 3500 fewer people had been diagnosed and treated for colorectal cancer in England than would have been expected. There was also a 31% (95% CI 19-42) relative reduction in the numbers receiving surgery in April, 2020, and a lower proportion of laparoscopic and a greater proportion of stoma-forming procedures, relative to the monthly average in 2019. By October, 2020, laparoscopic surgery and stoma rates were similar to 2019 levels. For rectal cancer, there was a 44% (95% CI 17-76) relative increase in the use of neoadjuvant radiotherapy in April, 2020, relative to the monthly average in 2019, due to greater use of short-course regimens. Although in June, 2020, there was a drop in the use of short-course regimens, rates remained above 2019 levels until October, 2020.

Interpretation: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a sustained reduction in the number of people referred, diagnosed, and treated for colorectal cancer. By October, 2020, achievement of care pathway targets had returned to 2019 levels, albeit with smaller volumes of patients and with modifications to usual practice. As pressure grows in the NHS due to the second wave of COVID-19, urgent action is needed to address the growing burden of undetected and untreated colorectal cancer in England.

Funding: Cancer Research UK, the Medical Research Council, Public Health England, Health Data Research UK, NHS Digital, and the National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2468-1253(21)00005-4DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7808901PMC
March 2021

Conventional and Genetic Evidence on the Association between Adiposity and CKD.

J Am Soc Nephrol 2021 Jan 30;32(1):127-137. Epub 2020 Oct 30.

Medical Research Council Population Health Research Unit at the University of Oxford, Nuffield Department of Population Health, Oxford, United Kingdom.

Background: The size of any causal contribution of central and general adiposity to CKD risk and the underlying mechanism of mediation are unknown.

Methods: Data from 281,228 UK Biobank participants were used to estimate the relevance of waist-to-hip ratio and body mass index (BMI) to CKD prevalence. Conventional approaches used logistic regression. Genetic analyses used Mendelian randomization (MR) and data from 394 waist-to-hip ratio and 773 BMI-associated loci. Models assessed the role of known mediators (diabetes mellitus and BP) by adjusting for measured values (conventional analyses) or genetic associations of the selected loci (multivariable MR).

Results: Evidence of CKD was found in 18,034 (6.4%) participants. Each 0.06 higher measured waist-to-hip ratio and each 5-kg/m increase in BMI were associated with 69% (odds ratio, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.64 to 1.74) and 58% (1.58; 1.55 to 1.62) higher odds of CKD, respectively. In analogous MR analyses, each 0.06-genetically-predicted higher waist-to-hip ratio was associated with a 29% (1.29; 1.20 to 1.38) increased odds of CKD, and each 5-kg/m genetically-predicted higher BMI was associated with a 49% (1.49; 1.39 to 1.59) increased odds. After adjusting for diabetes and measured BP, chi-squared values for associations for waist-to-hip ratio and BMI fell by 56%. In contrast, mediator adjustment using multivariable MR found 83% and 69% reductions in chi-squared values for genetically-predicted waist-to-hip ratio and BMI models, respectively.

Conclusions: Genetic analyses suggest that conventional associations between central and general adiposity with CKD are largely causal. However, conventional approaches underestimate mediating roles of diabetes, BP, and their correlates. Genetic approaches suggest these mediators explain most of adiposity-CKD-associated risk.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1681/ASN.2020050679DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7894659PMC
January 2021

Effect of Hydroxychloroquine in Hospitalized Patients with Covid-19.

N Engl J Med 2020 Nov 8;383(21):2030-2040. Epub 2020 Oct 8.

The affiliations of the members of the writing committee are as follows: the Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine (P.H., J.T., J.A.W., N.J.W.), Nuffield Department of Population Health (M.M., L.L., J.L.B., N.S., J.R.E., E.J., R.H., M.J.L.), the Medical Research Council (MRC) Population Health Research Unit (N.S., J.R.E., R.H., M.J.L.), University of Oxford, the Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (K.J., M.J.L.), and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Oxford Biomedical Research Centre (M.J.L.), Oxford, University Hospitals of Leicester NHS Trust and University of Leicester, Leicester (M.W.), the Regional Infectious Diseases Unit, North Manchester General Hospital (A.U.), University of Manchester (A.U., T.F.), and Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust (T.F.), Manchester, the Research and Development Department, Northampton General Hospital, Northampton (E.E.), the Department of Respiratory Medicine, North Tees and Hartlepool NHS Foundation Trust, Stockton-on-Tees (B.P.), University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust and Institute of Microbiology and Infection, University of Birmingham, Birmingham (T.W.), James Cook University Hospital, Middlesbrough (J.W.), North West Anglia NHS Foundation Trust, Peterborough (J.F.), the Department of Infectious Diseases, Cardiff and Vale University Health Board, and the Division of Infection and Immunity, Cardiff University, Cardiff (J.U.), Roslin Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh (J.K.B.), the School of Life Course Sciences, King's College London (L.C.C.), and the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (K.R.), London, the NIHR Southampton Clinical Research Facility and Biomedical Research Centre, University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust and University of Southampton, Southampton (S.N.F.), the Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Lancaster University, Lancaster (T.J.), the MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge (T.J.), and the Respiratory Medicine Department, Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust (W.S.L.), and the School of Medicine, University of Nottingham (A.M., E.J.), Nottingham - all in the United Kingdom; and the Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand (J.T., J.A.W., N.J.W.).

Background: Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine have been proposed as treatments for coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) on the basis of in vitro activity and data from uncontrolled studies and small, randomized trials.

Methods: In this randomized, controlled, open-label platform trial comparing a range of possible treatments with usual care in patients hospitalized with Covid-19, we randomly assigned 1561 patients to receive hydroxychloroquine and 3155 to receive usual care. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality.

Results: The enrollment of patients in the hydroxychloroquine group was closed on June 5, 2020, after an interim analysis determined that there was a lack of efficacy. Death within 28 days occurred in 421 patients (27.0%) in the hydroxychloroquine group and in 790 (25.0%) in the usual-care group (rate ratio, 1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.97 to 1.23; P = 0.15). Consistent results were seen in all prespecified subgroups of patients. The results suggest that patients in the hydroxychloroquine group were less likely to be discharged from the hospital alive within 28 days than those in the usual-care group (59.6% vs. 62.9%; rate ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.83 to 0.98). Among the patients who were not undergoing mechanical ventilation at baseline, those in the hydroxychloroquine group had a higher frequency of invasive mechanical ventilation or death (30.7% vs. 26.9%; risk ratio, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.27). There was a small numerical excess of cardiac deaths (0.4 percentage points) but no difference in the incidence of new major cardiac arrhythmia among the patients who received hydroxychloroquine.

Conclusions: Among patients hospitalized with Covid-19, those who received hydroxychloroquine did not have a lower incidence of death at 28 days than those who received usual care. (Funded by UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research and others; RECOVERY ISRCTN number, ISRCTN50189673; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04381936.).
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2022926DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7556338PMC
November 2020

Association Between Administration of Systemic Corticosteroids and Mortality Among Critically Ill Patients With COVID-19: A Meta-analysis.

JAMA 2020 10;324(13):1330-1341

Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael's Hospital, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

Importance: Effective therapies for patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are needed, and clinical trial data have demonstrated that low-dose dexamethasone reduced mortality in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 who required respiratory support.

Objective: To estimate the association between administration of corticosteroids compared with usual care or placebo and 28-day all-cause mortality.

Design, Setting, And Participants: Prospective meta-analysis that pooled data from 7 randomized clinical trials that evaluated the efficacy of corticosteroids in 1703 critically ill patients with COVID-19. The trials were conducted in 12 countries from February 26, 2020, to June 9, 2020, and the date of final follow-up was July 6, 2020. Pooled data were aggregated from the individual trials, overall, and in predefined subgroups. Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias Assessment Tool. Inconsistency among trial results was assessed using the I2 statistic. The primary analysis was an inverse variance-weighted fixed-effect meta-analysis of overall mortality, with the association between the intervention and mortality quantified using odds ratios (ORs). Random-effects meta-analyses also were conducted (with the Paule-Mandel estimate of heterogeneity and the Hartung-Knapp adjustment) and an inverse variance-weighted fixed-effect analysis using risk ratios.

Exposures: Patients had been randomized to receive systemic dexamethasone, hydrocortisone, or methylprednisolone (678 patients) or to receive usual care or placebo (1025 patients).

Main Outcomes And Measures: The primary outcome measure was all-cause mortality at 28 days after randomization. A secondary outcome was investigator-defined serious adverse events.

Results: A total of 1703 patients (median age, 60 years [interquartile range, 52-68 years]; 488 [29%] women) were included in the analysis. Risk of bias was assessed as "low" for 6 of the 7 mortality results and as "some concerns" in 1 trial because of the randomization method. Five trials reported mortality at 28 days, 1 trial at 21 days, and 1 trial at 30 days. There were 222 deaths among the 678 patients randomized to corticosteroids and 425 deaths among the 1025 patients randomized to usual care or placebo (summary OR, 0.66 [95% CI, 0.53-0.82]; P < .001 based on a fixed-effect meta-analysis). There was little inconsistency between the trial results (I2 = 15.6%; P = .31 for heterogeneity) and the summary OR was 0.70 (95% CI, 0.48-1.01; P = .053) based on the random-effects meta-analysis. The fixed-effect summary OR for the association with mortality was 0.64 (95% CI, 0.50-0.82; P < .001) for dexamethasone compared with usual care or placebo (3 trials, 1282 patients, and 527 deaths), the OR was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.43-1.12; P = .13) for hydrocortisone (3 trials, 374 patients, and 94 deaths), and the OR was 0.91 (95% CI, 0.29-2.87; P = .87) for methylprednisolone (1 trial, 47 patients, and 26 deaths). Among the 6 trials that reported serious adverse events, 64 events occurred among 354 patients randomized to corticosteroids and 80 events occurred among 342 patients randomized to usual care or placebo.

Conclusions And Relevance: In this prospective meta-analysis of clinical trials of critically ill patients with COVID-19, administration of systemic corticosteroids, compared with usual care or placebo, was associated with lower 28-day all-cause mortality.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.17023DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7489434PMC
October 2020

Corticosteroid therapy for critically ill patients with COVID-19: A structured summary of a study protocol for a prospective meta-analysis of randomized trials.

Trials 2020 Aug 24;21(1):734. Epub 2020 Aug 24.

Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.

Objectives: Primary objective: To estimate the effect of corticosteroids compared with usual care or placebo on mortality up to 28 days after randomization. Secondary objectives: To examine whether the effect of corticosteroids compared with usual care or placebo on mortality up to 28 days after randomization varies between subgroups related to treatment characteristics, disease severity at the time of randomization, patient characteristics, or risk of bias. To examine the effect of corticosteroids compared with usual care or placebo on serious adverse events.

Study Design: Prospective meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. Both placebo-controlled and open-label trials are eligible.

Participants: Hospitalised, critically ill patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19.

Intervention And Comparator: Intervention groups will have received therapeutic doses of a steroid (dexamethasone, hydrocortisone or methylprednisolone) with IV or oral administration immediately after randomization. The comparator groups will have received standard of care or usual care or placebo.

Main Outcome: All-cause mortality up to 28 days after randomization.

Search Methods: Systematic searching of clinicaltrials.gov , EudraCT, the WHO ISRCTN registry, and the Chinese clinical trials registry. Additionally, research and WHO networks will be asked for relevant trials.

Risk Of Bias Assessments: These will be based on the Cochrane RoB 2 tool, and will use structured information provided by the trial investigators on a form designed for this prospective meta-analysis. We will use GRADE to assess the certainty of the evidence.

Statistical Analyses: Trial investigators will provide data on the numbers of participants who did and did not experience each outcome according to intervention group, overall and in specified subgroups. We will conduct fixed-effect (primary analysis) and random-effects (Paule-Mandel estimate of heterogeneity and Hartung-Knapp adjustment) meta-analyses. We will quantify inconsistency in effects between trials using I statistics. Evidence for subgroup effects will be quantified by ratios of odds ratios comparing effects in the subgroups, and corresponding interaction p-values. Comparisons between subgroups defined by trial characteristics will be made using random-effects meta-regression. Comparisons between subgroups defined by patient characteristics will be made by estimating trial-specific ratios of odds ratios comparing intervention effects between subgroups then combining these using random-effects meta-analysis. Steroid interventions will be classified as high or low dose according to whether the dose is greater or less than or equal to 400 mg hydrocortisone per day or equivalent. We will use network meta-analysis methods to make comparisons between the effects of high and low dose steroid interventions (because one trial randomized participants to both low and high dose steroid arms).

Prospero Registration Number: CRD42020197242 FULL PROTOCOL: The full protocol for this prospective meta-analysis is attached as an additional file, accessible from the Trials website (Additional file 1). To expedite dissemination of this material, the familiar formatting has been eliminated; this Letter serves as a summary of the key elements of the full protocol for the systematic review.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13063-020-04641-3DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7443535PMC
August 2020

Weighing the Benefits and Risks of Proliferating Observational Treatment Assessments: Observational Cacophony, Randomized Harmony.

JAMA 2020 Jul 31. Epub 2020 Jul 31.

Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Headington, Oxford, United Kingdom.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.13319DOI Listing
July 2020

Randomization versus Real-World Evidence. Reply.

N Engl J Med 2020 07;383(4):e21

University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/NEJMc2020020DOI Listing
July 2020

Independent risk factors for simvastatin-related myopathy and relevance to different types of muscle symptom.

Eur Heart J 2020 Sep;41(35):3336-3342

Clinical Trial Service Unit and Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, Big Data Institute, University of Oxford, Old Road Campus, Oxford OX3 7LF, UK.

Aims: Statins are widely used to prevent cardiovascular events, but little is known about the impact of different risk factors for statin-related myopathy or their relevance to reports of other types of muscle symptom.

Methods And Results: An observational analysis was undertaken of 171 clinically adjudicated cases of myopathy (defined as unexplained muscle pain or weakness with creatine kinase >10× upper limit of normal) and, separately, of 15 208 cases of other muscle symptoms among 58 390 individuals with vascular disease treated with simvastatin for a mean of 3.4 years. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify independent predictors of myopathy. The rate of myopathy was low: 9 per 10 000 person-years of simvastatin therapy. Independent risk factors for myopathy included: simvastatin dose, ethnicity, sex, age, body mass index, medically treated diabetes, concomitant use of niacin-laropiprant, verapamil, beta-blockers, diltiazem and diuretics. In combination, these risk factors predicted more than a 30-fold risk difference between the top and bottom thirds of a myopathy risk score (hazard ratio : 34.35, 95% CI: 12.73-92.69, P across thirds = 9·1 × 10-48). However, despite the strong association with myopathy, this score was not associated with the other reported muscle symptoms (P across thirds = 0.93). Likewise, although SLCO1B1 genotype was associated with myopathy, it was not associated with other muscle symptoms.

Conclusions: The absolute risk of simvastatin-related myopathy is low, but individuals at higher risk can be identified to help guide patient management. The lack of association of the myopathy risk score with other muscle symptoms reinforces randomized placebo-controlled evidence that statins do not cause the vast majority of reported muscle symptoms.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/eurheartj/ehaa574DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7544537PMC
September 2020

COVID-19 pandemic and admission rates for and management of acute coronary syndromes in England.

Lancet 2020 08 14;396(10248):381-389. Epub 2020 Jul 14.

Clinical Trial Service Unit and Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, Oxford, UK; Medical Research Council Population Health Research Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, Oxford, UK. Electronic address:

Background: Several countries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic have reported a substantial drop in the number of patients attending the emergency department with acute coronary syndromes and a reduced number of cardiac procedures. We aimed to understand the scale, nature, and duration of changes to admissions for different types of acute coronary syndrome in England and to evaluate whether in-hospital management of patients has been affected as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods: We analysed data on hospital admissions in England for types of acute coronary syndrome from Jan 1, 2019, to May 24, 2020, that were recorded in the Secondary Uses Service Admitted Patient Care database. Admissions were classified as ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), non-STEMI (NSTEMI), myocardial infarction of unknown type, or other acute coronary syndromes (including unstable angina). We identified revascularisation procedures undertaken during these admissions (ie, coronary angiography without percutaneous coronary intervention [PCI], PCI, and coronary artery bypass graft surgery). We calculated the numbers of weekly admissions and procedures undertaken; percentage reductions in weekly admissions and across subgroups were also calculated, with 95% CIs.

Findings: Hospital admissions for acute coronary syndrome declined from mid-February, 2020, falling from a 2019 baseline rate of 3017 admissions per week to 1813 per week by the end of March, 2020, a reduction of 40% (95% CI 37-43). This decline was partly reversed during April and May, 2020, such that by the last week of May, 2020, there were 2522 admissions, representing a 16% (95% CI 13-20) reduction from baseline. During the period of declining admissions, there were reductions in the numbers of admissions for all types of acute coronary syndrome, including both STEMI and NSTEMI, but relative and absolute reductions were larger for NSTEMI, with 1267 admissions per week in 2019 and 733 per week by the end of March, 2020, a percent reduction of 42% (95% CI 38-46). In parallel, reductions were recorded in the number of PCI procedures for patients with both STEMI (438 PCI procedures per week in 2019 vs 346 by the end of March, 2020; percent reduction 21%, 95% CI 12-29) and NSTEMI (383 PCI procedures per week in 2019 vs 240 by the end of March, 2020; percent reduction 37%, 29-45). The median length of stay among patients with acute coronary syndrome fell from 4 days (IQR 2-9) in 2019 to 3 days (1-5) by the end of March, 2020.

Interpretation: Compared with the weekly average in 2019, there was a substantial reduction in the weekly numbers of patients with acute coronary syndrome who were admitted to hospital in England by the end of March, 2020, which had been partly reversed by the end of May, 2020. The reduced number of admissions during this period is likely to have resulted in increases in out-of-hospital deaths and long-term complications of myocardial infarction and missed opportunities to offer secondary prevention treatment for patients with coronary heart disease. The full extent of the effect of COVID-19 on the management of patients with acute coronary syndrome will continue to be assessed by updating these analyses.

Funding: UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Public Health England, Health Data Research UK, and the National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31356-8DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7429983PMC
August 2020

Dexamethasone in Hospitalized Patients with Covid-19.

N Engl J Med 2021 Feb 17;384(8):693-704. Epub 2020 Jul 17.

From the Nuffield Department of Medicine (P.H.), Nuffield Department of Population Health (J.R.E., M.M., J.L.B., L.L., N.S., E.J., R.H., M.J.L.), and MRC Population Health Research Unit (J.R.E., N.S., R.H., M.J.L.), University of Oxford, the Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (K.J.), and National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Oxford Biomedical Research Centre (M.J.L.), Oxford, the Respiratory Medicine Department, Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust (W.S.L.), and the School of Medicine, University of Nottingham (A.M.), Nottingham, the Institute for Lung Health, Leicester NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, University of Leicester, Leicester (C.B.), the Regional Infectious Diseases Unit, North Manchester General Hospital and University of Manchester (A.U.), and the University of Manchester and Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust (T.F.), Manchester, the Research and Development Department, Northampton General Hospital, Northampton (E.E.), the Department of Respiratory Medicine, North Tees and Hartlepool NHS Foundation Trust, Stockton-on-Tees (B.P.), University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust and Institute of Microbiology and Infection, University of Birmingham, Birmingham (C.G.), the Centre for Clinical Infection, James Cook University Hospital, Middlesbrough (D.C.), the North West Anglia NHS Foundation Trust, Peterborough (K. Rege), the Department of Research and Development, Cardiff and Vale University Health Board, Cardiff (C.F.), the School of Life Course Sciences, King's College London (L.C.C.), and the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (K. Rowan), London, the NIHR Southampton Clinical Research Facility and Biomedical Research Centre, University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust and University of Southampton, Southampton (S.N.F.), the Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Lancaster University, Lancaster (T.J.), the MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge (T.J.), and Roslin Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh (J.K.B.) - all in the United Kingdom.

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) is associated with diffuse lung damage. Glucocorticoids may modulate inflammation-mediated lung injury and thereby reduce progression to respiratory failure and death.

Methods: In this controlled, open-label trial comparing a range of possible treatments in patients who were hospitalized with Covid-19, we randomly assigned patients to receive oral or intravenous dexamethasone (at a dose of 6 mg once daily) for up to 10 days or to receive usual care alone. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. Here, we report the final results of this assessment.

Results: A total of 2104 patients were assigned to receive dexamethasone and 4321 to receive usual care. Overall, 482 patients (22.9%) in the dexamethasone group and 1110 patients (25.7%) in the usual care group died within 28 days after randomization (age-adjusted rate ratio, 0.83; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75 to 0.93; P<0.001). The proportional and absolute between-group differences in mortality varied considerably according to the level of respiratory support that the patients were receiving at the time of randomization. In the dexamethasone group, the incidence of death was lower than that in the usual care group among patients receiving invasive mechanical ventilation (29.3% vs. 41.4%; rate ratio, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.51 to 0.81) and among those receiving oxygen without invasive mechanical ventilation (23.3% vs. 26.2%; rate ratio, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.72 to 0.94) but not among those who were receiving no respiratory support at randomization (17.8% vs. 14.0%; rate ratio, 1.19; 95% CI, 0.92 to 1.55).

Conclusions: In patients hospitalized with Covid-19, the use of dexamethasone resulted in lower 28-day mortality among those who were receiving either invasive mechanical ventilation or oxygen alone at randomization but not among those receiving no respiratory support. (Funded by the Medical Research Council and National Institute for Health Research and others; RECOVERY ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04381936; ISRCTN number, 50189673.).
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2021436DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7383595PMC
February 2021

Cross-sectional associations between central and general adiposity with albuminuria: observations from 400,000 people in UK Biobank.

Int J Obes (Lond) 2020 Nov 16;44(11):2256-2266. Epub 2020 Jul 16.

Nuffield Department of Population Health (NDPH), Medical Research Council Population Health Research Unit at the University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

Background: Whether measures of central adiposity are more or less strongly associated with risk of albuminuria than body mass index (BMI), and by how much diabetes/levels of glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) explain or modify these associations, is uncertain.

Methods: Ordinal logistic regression was used to estimate associations between values of central adiposity (waist-to-hip ratio) and, separately, general adiposity (BMI) with categories of urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) in 408,527 UK Biobank participants. Separate central and general adiposity-based models were initially adjusted for potential confounders and measurement error, then sequentially, models were mutually adjusted (e.g. waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI, and vice versa), and finally they were adjusted for potential mediators.

Results: Levels of albuminuria were generally low: 20,425 (5%) had a uACR ≥3 mg/mmol. After adjustment for confounders and measurement error, each 0.06 higher waist-to-hip ratio was associated with a 55% (95%CI 53-57%) increase in the odds of being in a higher uACR category. After adjustment for baseline BMI, this association was reduced to 32% (30-34%). Each 5 kg/m higher BMI was associated with a 47% (46-49%) increase in the odds of being in a higher uACR category. Adjustment for baseline waist-to-hip ratio reduced this association to 35% (33-37%). Those with higher HbA1c were at progressively higher odds of albuminuria, but positive associations between both waist-to-hip ratio and BMI were apparent irrespective of HbA1c. Altogether, about 40% of central adiposity associations appeared to be mediated by diabetes, vascular disease and blood pressure.

Conclusions: Conventional epidemiological approaches suggest that higher waist-to-hip ratio and BMI are independently positively associated with albuminuria. Adiposity-albuminuria associations appear strong among people with normal HbA1c, as well as people with pre-diabetes or diabetes.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41366-020-0642-3DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7577847PMC
November 2020

Regulating drugs, medical devices, and diagnostic tests in the European Union: early lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic?

Eur Heart J 2020 06;41(23):2140-2144

Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LF, UK.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/eurheartj/ehaa506DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7337778PMC
June 2020

The Magic of Randomization versus the Myth of Real-World Evidence.

N Engl J Med 2020 Feb;382(7):674-678

From the Clinical Trial Service Unit and Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/NEJMsb1901642DOI Listing
February 2020

Investigating modifications to participant information materials to improve recruitment into a large randomized trial.

Trials 2019 Dec 5;20(1):681. Epub 2019 Dec 5.

MRC Population Health Research Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

Background: Large randomized trials are the best method to test the efficacy and safety of treatments expected to have moderate effects. We observed a significant decline in potential participants' response to mailed invitations to participate in such trials over a 10-year period and investigated possible reasons behind this and potential modifications to the invitation process to mitigate it.

Methods: Participants who declined to participate in the HPS2-THRIVE trial were asked to give a reason. Formal focus groups were conducted to explore the reasons that potential participants might have for not participating. In addition, two embedded randomized comparisons around the timing of provision of the full participant information leaflet (PIL) and its style were conducted during recruitment into this large randomized trial. HPS2-THRIVE is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00461630).

Results: The commonest reason given for declining invitations related to mobility and transportation (despite the offer of travel expenses). Both the focus groups and potential participants who declined their invitation indicated concern about side-effects of the treatment (as presented in the PIL) as a reason for declining the invitation. Neither delaying provision of the full PIL until the potential participant attended the trial clinic, nor modifying the style of the PIL improved the proportion of potential participants entering the trial: odds ratio (OR) 1.05 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.94-1.17) and 1.10 (95% CI 0.94-1.28), respectively. However, modifying the style of the PIL did increase the proportion of participants attending screening appointments (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.03-1.33).

Conclusions: Many reasons given for not participating in trials are not tractable to individual trials. However, modification of the PIL does show potential to modestly improve participation. If further trials could identify similar simple interventions that were beneficial, their net effects could substantially improve trial participation and facilitate recruitment into large trials.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13063-019-3779-4DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6896768PMC
December 2019

Serious Adverse Effects of Extended-release Niacin/Laropiprant: Results From the Heart Protection Study 2-Treatment of HDL to Reduce the Incidence of Vascular Events (HPS2-THRIVE) Trial.

Clin Ther 2019 09 22;41(9):1767-1777. Epub 2019 Aug 22.

MRC Population Health Research Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Clinical Trial Service Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.

Purpose: The Heart Protection Study 2-Treatment of HDL to Reduce the Incidence of Vascular Events (HPS2-THRIVE) trial of patients at high risk of vascular disease found that adding extended-release niacin-laropiprant to intensive statin-based LDL-lowering therapy had no benefit on cardiovascular outcomes. However, the trial also identified previously unrecognized serious adverse effects (including new-onset diabetes, bleeding, and infection). Our objective was to explore the safety profile of niacin-laropiprant and examine whether any patients were at lower (or higher) risk of its adverse effects.

Methods: HPS2-THRIVE was a randomized, double-blind trial of niacin-laropiprant (2000/40 mg/d) versus placebo among 25,673 patients at high risk of vascular disease. Information on all serious adverse events was collected during a median of 3.9 years of study treatment. Effects of niacin-laropiprant on new-onset diabetes, disturbances of diabetes control, bleeding, infection, and gastrointestinal upset were estimated by (1) time after randomization, (2) severity, (3) baseline characteristics, (4) baseline risk of the adverse event of interest, and (5) risk of major vascular event.

Findings: The hazard ratio (HR) for new-onset diabetes with niacin/laropiprant was 1.32 (95% CI, 1.16-1.51; P < .001), which corresponded to an absolute excess of 4 people (95% CI, 2-6) developing diabetes per 1000 person-years in the study population as a whole. Among the 8299 participants with diabetes at baseline, the HR for serious disturbances in diabetes control was 1.56 (95% CI, 1.35-1.80), corresponding to an absolute excess of 12 (95% CI, 8-16) per 1000 person-years. The HR was 1.38 (95% CI, 1.17-1.63; P < .001) for serious bleeding, corresponding to an absolute excess of 2 (95% CI, 1-3) per 1000 person-years and 1.22 (95% CI, 1.11-1.34; P < .001) for serious infection, corresponding to an absolute excess of 4 (95% CI, 2-6) per 1000 person-years. The excess risks of these serious adverse events were larger in the first year after starting niacin-laropiprant therapy than in later years (except for the excess of infection, which did not appear to attenuate with time), and the risks of nonfatal and fatal events were similarly increased. The absolute excesses of each of these adverse effects were similar regardless of the baseline risk of the outcome.

Implications: Practitioners or patients considering the use of niacin (in addition to, or instead of, a statin) despite the lack of evidence of cardiovascular benefits (at least when added to effective statin therapy) should take account of the significant risks of these serious adverse effects when making such decisions. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00461630.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.clinthera.2019.06.012DOI Listing
September 2019

Impact of ADCY9 Genotype on Response to Anacetrapib.

Circulation 2019 Jul 23. Epub 2019 Jul 23.

Clinical Trial Service Unit and Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

Background: Exploratory analyses of previous randomized trials generated a hypothesis that the clinical response to CETP inhibitor therapy differs by ADCY9 genotype, prompting the ongoing dal-GenE trial in individuals with a particular genetic profile. The randomized placebo-controlled REVEAL trial demonstrated the clinical efficacy of the CETP inhibitor anacetrapib among patients with pre-existing atherosclerotic vascular disease. In the present study, we have examined the impact of ADCY9 genotype on response to anacetrapib within the REVEAL trial.

Methods: Individuals with stable atherosclerotic vascular disease, who were treated with intensive atorvastatin therapy, received either anacetrapib 100 mg daily or matching placebo. Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for the first 5 principal components of ancestry, were used to estimate the effects of allocation to anacetrapib on major vascular events (a composite of coronary death, myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization or presumed ischaemic stroke) and the interaction with ADCY9 rs1967309 genotype.

Results: Among 19,210 genotyped individuals of European ancestry, 2,504 (13.0%) had a first major vascular event during 4 years median follow-up: 1,216 (12.6%) among anacetrapib-allocated participants and 1,288 (13.4%) among placebo-allocated participants. Proportional reductions in the risk of major vascular events with anacetrapib did not differ significantly by ADCY9 genotype: HR = 0.92 (95% CI, 0.81-1.05) for GG; HR = 0.94 (95% CI, 0.84-1.06) for AG; and HR = 0.93 (95% CI, 0.76-1.13) for AA genotype carriers respectively; genotypic p for interaction = 0.96. Furthermore, there were no associations between ADCY9 genotype and the proportional reductions in the separate components of major vascular events, or meaningful differences in lipid response to anacetrapib.

Conclusions: The REVEAL trial is the single largest study to date evaluating the ADCY9 pharmacogenetic interaction. It provides no support for the hypothesis that ADCY9 genotype is materially relevant to the clinical effects of the CETP inhibitor anacetrapib. The ongoing dal-GenE study will provide direct evidence as to whether there is any specific pharmacogenetic interaction with dalcetrapib.

Clinical Trial Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov Unique Identifier: NCT01252953; URL: http://www.isrctn.com Unique Identifier: ISRCTN48678192; URL: https://www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu Unique Identifier: 2010-023467-18.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.119.041546DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6749971PMC
July 2019

Cost-effectiveness of lipid lowering with statins and ezetimibe in chronic kidney disease.

Kidney Int 2019 07 12;96(1):170-179. Epub 2019 Mar 12.

Health Economics Research Centre, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, UK; Centre for Primary Care and Public Health, Blizard Institute, Barts and The London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, UK. Electronic address:

Statin-based treatments reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in patients with non-dialysis chronic kidney disease (CKD), but it is unclear which regimen is the most cost-effective. We used the Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP) CKD-CVD policy model to evaluate the effect of statins and ezetimibe on quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and health care costs in the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK). Net costs below $100,000/QALY (US) or £20,000/QALY (UK) were considered cost-effective. We investigated statin regimens with or without ezetimibe 10 mg. Treatment effects on cardiovascular risk were estimated per 1-mmol/L reduction in low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol as reported in the Cholesterol Treatment Trialists' Collaboration meta-analysis, and reductions in LDL cholesterol were estimated for each statin/ezetimibe regimen. In the US, atorvastatin 40 mg ($0.103/day as of January 2019) increased life expectancy by 0.23 to 0.31 QALYs in non-dialysis patients with stages 3B to 5 CKD, at a net cost of $20,300 to $78,200/QALY. Adding ezetimibe 10 mg ($0.203/day) increased life expectancy by an additional 0.05 to 0.07 QALYs, at a net cost of $43,600 to $91,500/QALY. The cost-effectiveness findings and policy implications in the UK were similar. In summary, in patients with non-dialysis-dependent CKD, the evidence suggests that statin/ezetimibe combination therapy is a cost-effective treatment to reduce the risk of CVD.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.kint.2019.01.028DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6595178PMC
July 2019

Physical activity, sleep and cardiovascular health data for 50,000 individuals from the MyHeart Counts Study.

Sci Data 2019 04 11;6(1):24. Epub 2019 Apr 11.

Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA.

Studies have established the importance of physical activity and fitness for long-term cardiovascular health, yet limited data exist on the association between objective, real-world large-scale physical activity patterns, fitness, sleep, and cardiovascular health primarily due to difficulties in collecting such datasets. We present data from the MyHeart Counts Cardiovascular Health Study, wherein participants contributed data via an iPhone application built using Apple's ResearchKit framework and consented to make this data available freely for further research applications. In this smartphone-based study of cardiovascular health, participants recorded daily physical activity, completed health questionnaires, and performed a 6-minute walk fitness test. Data from English-speaking participants aged 18 years or older with a US-registered iPhone who agreed to share their data broadly and who enrolled between the study's launch and the time of the data freeze for this data release (March 10 2015-October 28 2015) are now available for further research. It is anticipated that releasing this large-scale collection of real-world physical activity, fitness, sleep, and cardiovascular health data will enable the research community to work collaboratively towards improving our understanding of the relationship between cardiovascular indicators, lifestyle, and overall health, as well as inform mobile health research best practices.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41597-019-0016-7DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6472350PMC
April 2019

Assessment of Vascular Event Prevention and Cognitive Function Among Older Adults With Preexisting Vascular Disease or Diabetes: A Secondary Analysis of 3 Randomized Clinical Trials.

JAMA Netw Open 2019 03 1;2(3):e190223. Epub 2019 Mar 1.

Clinical Trial Service Unit and Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.

Importance: Acquisition of reliable randomized clinical trial evidence of the effects of cardiovascular interventions on cognitive decline is a priority.

Objectives: To estimate the association of cognitive aging with the avoidance of vascular events in cardiovascular intervention trials and understand whether reports of nonsignificant results exclude worthwhile benefit.

Design, Setting, And Participants: This secondary analysis of 3 randomized clinical trials in participants with preexisting occlusive vascular disease or diabetes included survivors to final in-trial follow-up in the Heart Protection Study (HPS), Study of the Effectiveness of Additional Reductions in Cholesterol and Homocysteine (SEARCH), and Treatment of HDL (High-Density Lipoprotein) to Reduce the Incidence of Vascular Events (HPS2-THRIVE) trials of lipid modification for prevention of cardiovascular events. Data were collected from February 1994 through January 2013 and analyzed from January 2015 through December 2018.

Exposures: Incident vascular events and diabetes and statin therapy.

Main Outcomes And Measures: Cognitive function was assessed at the end of a mean (SD) of 4.9 (1.5) years of follow-up using a 14-item verbal test. Associations of the incidence of vascular events and new-onset diabetes during the trials, with cognitive function at final in-trial follow-up were estimated and expressed as years of cognitive aging (using the association of the score with age >60 years). The benefit on cognitive aging mediated through the effects of lowering low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels on events was estimated by applying these findings to nonfatal event differences observed with statin therapy in the HPS trial.

Results: Among 45 029 participants undergoing cognitive assessment, mean (SD) age was 67.9 (8.0) years; 80.7% were men. Incident stroke (n = 1197) was associated with 7.1 (95% CI, 5.7-8.5) years of cognitive aging; incident transient ischemic attack, myocardial infarction, heart failure, and new-onset diabetes were associated with 1 to 2 years of cognitive aging. In HPS, randomization to statin therapy for 5 years resulted in 2.0% of survivors avoiding a nonfatal stroke or transient ischemic attack and 2.4% avoiding a nonfatal cardiac event, which yielded an expected reduction in cognitive aging of 0.15 (95% CI, 0.11-0.19) years. With 15 926 participants undergoing cognitive assessment, HPS had 80% power to detect a 1-year (ie, 20% during the 5 years) difference in cognitive aging.

Conclusions And Relevance: The expected cognitive benefits of the effects of preventive therapies on cardiovascular events during even the largest randomized clinical trials may have been too small to be detectable. Hence, nonsignificant findings may not provide good evidence of a lack of worthwhile benefit on cognitive function with prolonged use of such therapies.

Trial Registration: isrctn.com and ClinicalTrials.gov Identifiers: ISRCTN48489393, ISRCTN74348595, and NCT00461630.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2019.0223DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6484650PMC
March 2019

The potential for improving cardio-renal outcomes by sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibition in people with chronic kidney disease: a rationale for the EMPA-KIDNEY study.

Clin Kidney J 2018 Dec 25;11(6):749-761. Epub 2018 Oct 25.

Würzburg University Clinic, Würzburg, Germany.

Diabetes is a common cause of chronic kidney disease (CKD), but in aggregate, non-diabetic diseases account for a higher proportion of cases of CKD than diabetes in many parts of the world. Inhibition of the renin-angiotensin system reduces the risk of kidney disease progression and treatments that lower blood pressure (BP) or low-density lipoprotein cholesterol reduce cardiovascular (CV) risk in this population. Nevertheless, despite such interventions, considerable risks for kidney and CV complications remain. Recently, large placebo-controlled outcome trials have shown that sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitors reduce the risk of CV disease (including CV death and hospitalization for heart failure) in people with type 2 diabetes who are at high risk of atherosclerotic disease, and these effects were largely independent of improvements in hyperglycaemia, BP and body weight. In the kidney, increased sodium delivery to the macula densa mediated by SGLT-2 inhibition has the potential to reduce intraglomerular pressure, which may explain why SGLT-2 inhibitors reduce albuminuria and appear to slow kidney function decline in people with diabetes. Importantly, in the trials completed to date, these benefits appeared to be maintained at lower levels of kidney function, despite attenuation of glycosuric effects, and did not appear to be dependent on ambient hyperglycaemia. There is therefore a rationale for studying the cardio-renal effects of SGLT-2 inhibition in people at risk of CV disease and hyperfiltration (i.e. those with substantially reduced nephron mass and/or albuminuria), irrespective of whether they have diabetes.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ckj/sfy090DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6275453PMC
December 2018

Relationship of Estimated GFR and Albuminuria to Concurrent Laboratory Abnormalities: An Individual Participant Data Meta-analysis in a Global Consortium.

Am J Kidney Dis 2019 02 19;73(2):206-217. Epub 2018 Oct 19.

BC Provincial Renal Agency and University of British Columbia, Canada.

Rationale & Objective: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is complicated by abnormalities that reflect disruption in filtration, tubular, and endocrine functions of the kidney. Our aim was to explore the relationship of specific laboratory result abnormalities and hypertension with the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria CKD staging framework.

Study Design: Cross-sectional individual participant-level analyses in a global consortium.

Setting & Study Populations: 17 CKD and 38 general population and high-risk cohorts.

Selection Criteria For Studies: Cohorts in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with data for eGFR and albuminuria, as well as a measurement of hemoglobin, bicarbonate, phosphorus, parathyroid hormone, potassium, or calcium, or hypertension.

Data Extraction: Data were obtained and analyzed between July 2015 and January 2018.

Analytical Approach: We modeled the association of eGFR and albuminuria with hemoglobin, bicarbonate, phosphorus, parathyroid hormone, potassium, and calcium values using linear regression and with hypertension and categorical definitions of each abnormality using logistic regression. Results were pooled using random-effects meta-analyses.

Results: The CKD cohorts (n=254,666 participants) were 27% women and 10% black, with a mean age of 69 (SD, 12) years. The general population/high-risk cohorts (n=1,758,334) were 50% women and 2% black, with a mean age of 50 (16) years. There was a strong graded association between lower eGFR and all laboratory result abnormalities (ORs ranging from 3.27 [95% CI, 2.68-3.97] to 8.91 [95% CI, 7.22-10.99] comparing eGFRs of 15 to 29 with eGFRs of 45 to 59mL/min/1.73m), whereas albuminuria had equivocal or weak associations with abnormalities (ORs ranging from 0.77 [95% CI, 0.60-0.99] to 1.92 [95% CI, 1.65-2.24] comparing urinary albumin-creatinine ratio > 300 vs < 30mg/g).

Limitations: Variations in study era, health care delivery system, typical diet, and laboratory assays.

Conclusions: Lower eGFR was strongly associated with higher odds of multiple laboratory result abnormalities. Knowledge of risk associations might help guide management in the heterogeneous group of patients with CKD.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1053/j.ajkd.2018.08.013DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6348050PMC
February 2019

Trends in the Incidence and Recurrence of Inpatient-Treated Spontaneous Pneumothorax, 1968-2016.

JAMA 2018 10;320(14):1471-1480

Unit of Health-Care Epidemiology, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.

Importance: Spontaneous pneumothorax is a common disease known to have an unusual epidemiological profile, but there are limited contemporary population-based data.

Objective: To estimate the incidence of hospital admissions for spontaneous pneumothorax, its recurrence and trends over time using large, longstanding hospitalization data sets in England.

Design, Setting, And Participants: A population-based epidemiological study was conducted using an English national data set and an English regional data set, each spanning 1968 to 2016, and including 170 929 hospital admission records of patients 15 years and older. Final date of the study period was December 31, 2016.

Exposures: Calendar year (for incidence) and readmission to hospital for spontaneous pneumothorax (for recurrence).

Main Outcomes And Measures: Primary outcomes were rates of hospital admissions for spontaneous pneumothorax and recurrence, defined as a subsequent hospital readmission with spontaneous pneumothorax. Record-linkage was used to identify multiple admissions per person and comorbidity. Risk factors for recurrence over 5 years of follow-up were assessed using cumulative time-to-failure analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression.

Results: From 1968 to 2016, there were 170 929 hospital admissions for spontaneous pneumothorax (median age, 44 years [IQR, 26-88]; 73.0% male). In 2016, there were 14.1 spontaneous pneumothorax admissions per 100 000 population 15 years and older (95% CI, 13.7-14.4), a significant increase compared with earlier years, up from 9.1 (95% CI, 8.1-10.1) in 1968. The population-based rate per 100 000 population 15 years and older was higher for males (20.8 [95% CI, 20.2-21.4]) than for females (7.6 [95% CI, 7.2-7.9]). Of patients with spontaneous pneumothorax, 60.8% (95% CI, 59.5%-62.0%) had chronic lung disease. Record-linkage analysis demonstrated that the overall increase in admissions over time could be due in part to an increase in repeat admissions, but there were also significant increases in the annual rate of first-known spontaneous pneumothorax admissions in some population subgroups, for example in women 65 years and older (annual percentage change from 1968 to 2016, 4.08 [95% CI, 3.33-4.82], P < .001). The probability of recurrence within 5 years was similar by sex (25.5% [95% CI, 25.1%-25.9%] for males vs 26.0% [95% CI, 25.3%-26.7%] for females), but there was variation by age group and presence of chronic lung disease. For example, the probability of readmission within 5 years among males aged 15 to 34 years with chronic lung disease was 39.2% (95% CI, 37.7%-40.7%) compared with 19.6% (95% CI, 18.2%-21.1%) in men 65 years and older without chronic lung disease.

Conclusions And Relevance: This study provides contemporary information regarding the trends in incidence and recurrence of inpatient-treated spontaneous pneumothorax.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jama.2018.14299DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6233798PMC
October 2018

Effects of Sacubitril/Valsartan Versus Irbesartan in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease.

Circulation 2018 10;138(15):1505-1514

Medical Research Council Population Health Research Unit (R.H., P.K.J., W.G.H., B.C.S., M.H., M.J.L., C.B.), University of Oxford, UK.

Background: Sacubitril/valsartan reduces the risk of cardiovascular mortality among patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, but its effects on kidney function and cardiac biomarkers in people with moderate to severe chronic kidney disease are unknown.

Methods: The UK HARP-III trial (United Kingdom Heart and Renal Protection-III), a randomized double-blind trial, included 414 participants with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) 20 to 60 mL/min/1.73 m who were randomly assigned to sacubitril/valsartan 97/103 mg twice daily versus irbesartan 300 mg once daily. The primary outcome was measured GFR at 12 months using ANCOVA with adjustment for each individual's baseline measured GFR. All analyses were by intention to treat.

Results: In total, 207 participants were assigned to sacubitril/valsartan and 207 to irbesartan. Baseline measured GFR was 34.0 (SE, 0.8) and 34.7 (SE, 0.8) mL/min/1.73 m, respectively. At 12 months, there was no difference in measured GFR: 29.8 (SE 0.5) among those assigned sacubitril/valsartan versus 29.9 (SE, 0.5) mL/min/1.73 m among those assigned irbesartan; difference, -0.1 (0.7) mL/min/1.73 m. Effects were similar in all prespecified subgroups. There was also no significant difference in estimated GFR at 3, 6, 9, or 12 months and no clear difference in urinary albumin:creatinine ratio between treatment arms (study average difference, -9%; 95% CI, -18 to 1). However, compared with irbesartan, allocation to sacubitril/valsartan reduced study average systolic and diastolic blood pressure by 5.4 (95% CI, 3.4-7.4) and 2.1 (95% CI, 1.0-3.3) mm Hg and levels of troponin I and N terminal of prohormone brain natriuretic peptide (tertiary end points) by 16% (95% CI, 8-23) and 18% (95% CI, 11-25), respectively. The incidence of serious adverse events (29.5% versus 28.5%; rate ratio, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.75-1.53), nonserious adverse reactions (36.7% versus 28.0%; rate ratio, 1.35; 95% CI, 0.96-1.90), and potassium ≥5.5 mmol/L (32% versus 24%, P=0.10) was not significantly different between randomized groups.

Conclusions: Over 12 months, sacubitril/valsartan has similar effects on kidney function and albuminuria to irbesartan, but it has the additional effect of lowering blood pressure and cardiac biomarkers in people with chronic kidney disease.

Clinical Trial Registration: URL: http://www.isrctn.com . Unique identifier: ISRCTN11958993.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.118.034818DOI Listing
October 2018

Use of Mobile Devices to Measure Outcomes in Clinical Research, 2010-2016: A Systematic Literature Review.

Digit Biomark 2018 Jan-Apr;2(1):11-30. Epub 2018 Jan 31.

Department of Population Health Sciences, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, North Carolina, USA.

Background: The use of mobile devices in clinical research has advanced substantially in recent years due to the rapid pace of technology development. With an overall aim of informing the future use of mobile devices in interventional clinical research to measure primary outcomes, we conducted a systematic review of the use of and clinical outcomes measured by mobile devices (mobile outcomes) in observational and interventional clinical research.

Method: We conducted a PubMed search using a range of search terms to retrieve peer-reviewed articles on clinical research published between January 2010 and May 2016 in which mobile devices were used to measure study outcomes. We screened each publication for specific inclusion and exclusion criteria. We then identified and qualitatively summarized the use of mobile outcome assessments in clinical research, including the type and design of the study, therapeutic focus, type of mobile device(s) used, and specific mobile outcomes reported.

Results: The search retrieved 2,530 potential articles of interest. After screening, 88 publications remained. Twenty-five percent of the publications ( = 22) described mobile outcomes used in interventional research, and the rest ( = 66) described observational clinical research. Thirteen therapeutic areas were represented. Five categories of mobile devices were identified: (1) inertial sensors, (2) biosensors, (3) pressure sensors and walkways, (4) medication adherence monitors, and (5) location monitors; inertial sensors/accelerometers were most common (reported in 86% of the publications). Among the variety of mobile outcomes, various assessments of physical activity were most common (reported in 74% of the publications). Other mobile outcomes included assessments of sleep, mobility, and pill adherence, as well as biomarkers assessed using a mobile device, including cardiac measures, glucose, gastric reflux, respiratory measures, and intensity of head-related injury.

Conclusion: Mobile devices are being widely used in clinical research to assess outcomes, although their use in interventional research to assess therapeutic effectiveness is limited. For mobile devices to be used more frequently in pivotal interventional research - such as trials informing regulatory decision-making - more focus should be placed on: (1) consolidating the evidence supporting the clinical meaningfulness of specific mobile outcomes, and (2) standardizing the use of mobile devices in clinical research to measure specific mobile outcomes (e.g., data capture frequencies, placement of device). To that aim, this manuscript offers a broad overview of the various mobile outcome assessments currently used in observational and interventional research, and categorizes and consolidates this information for researchers interested in using mobile devices to assess outcomes in interventional research.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1159/000486347DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6008882PMC
January 2018

Impact of CKD on Household Income.

Kidney Int Rep 2018 May 23;3(3):610-618. Epub 2017 Dec 23.

Health Economics Research Centre, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, UK.

Introduction: The impact of chronic kidney disease (CKD) on income is unclear. We sought to determine whether CKD severity, serious adverse events, and CKD progression affected household income.

Methods: Analyses were undertaken in a prospective cohort of adults with moderate-to-severe CKD in the Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP), with household income information available at baseline screening and study end. Logistic regressions, adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics, smoking, and prior diseases at baseline, estimated associations during the 5-year follow-up, among (i) baseline CKD severity, (ii) incident nonfatal serious adverse events (vascular or cancer), and (iii) CKD treatment modality (predialysis, dialysis, or transplanted) at study end and the outcome "fall into relative poverty." This was defined as household income <50% of country median income.

Results: A total of 2914 SHARP participants from 14 countries were included in the main analysis. Of these, 933 (32%) were in relative poverty at screening; of the remaining 1981, 436 (22%) fell into relative poverty by study end. Compared with participants with stage 3 CKD at baseline, the odds of falling into poverty were 51% higher for those with stage 4 (odds ratio [OR]: 1.51; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09-2.10), 66% higher for those with stage 5 (OR: 1.66; 95% CI: 1.11-2.47), and 78% higher for those on dialysis at baseline (OR: 1.78, 95% CI: 1.22-2.60). Participants with kidney transplant at study end had approximately half the risk of those on dialysis or those with CKD stages 3 to 5.

Conclusion: More advanced CKD is associated with increased odds of falling into poverty. Kidney transplantation may have a role in reducing this risk.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ekir.2017.12.008DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5976816PMC
May 2018

Fibroblast Growth Factor-23 and Risks of Cardiovascular and Noncardiovascular Diseases: A Meta-Analysis.

J Am Soc Nephrol 2018 07 15;29(7):2015-2027. Epub 2018 May 15.

Clinical Trial Service Unit and Epidemiological Studies Unit, and.

Fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF-23) has been hypothesized to play a role in the increased risk of cardiovascular disease in patients with CKD. We identified prospective studies reporting associations between FGF-23 concentration and risk of cardiovascular events. Maximally adjusted risk ratios (RRs) were extracted for each outcome and scaled to a comparison of the top versus bottom third of the baseline FGF-23 concentration, and the results aggregated. Depending on the assay used, median FGF-23 concentrations were 43-74 RU/ml and 38-47 pg/ml in 17 general population cohorts; 102-392 RU/ml in nine cohorts of patients with CKD not requiring dialysis; and 79-4212 RU/ml and 2526-5555 pg/ml in eight cohorts of patients on dialysis. Overall, comparing participants in the top and bottom FGF-23 concentration thirds, the summary RRs (95% confidence intervals [95% CIs]) were 1.33 (1.12 to 1.58) for myocardial infarction, 1.26 (1.13 to 1.41) for stroke, 1.48 (1.29 to 1.69) for heart failure, 1.42 (1.27 to 1.60) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.70 (1.52 to 1.91) for all-cause mortality. The summary RR for noncardiovascular mortality, calculated indirectly, was 1.52 (95% CI, 1.28 to 1.79). When studies were ordered by average differences in FGF-23 concentration between the top and bottom thirds, there was no trend in RRs across the studies. The similarly-sized associations between increased FGF-23 concentration and cardiovascular (atherosclerotic and nonatherosclerotic) and noncardiovascular outcomes, together with the absence of any exposure-response relationship, suggest that the relationship between FGF-23 and cardiovascular disease risk may be noncausal.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1681/ASN.2017121334DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6050929PMC
July 2018

2017 Cardiovascular and Stroke Endpoint Definitions for Clinical Trials.

J Am Coll Cardiol 2018 03;71(9):1021-1034

Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER), United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Silver Spring, Maryland.

This publication describes uniform definitions for cardiovascular and stroke outcomes developed by the Standardized Data Collection for Cardiovascular Trials Initiative and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA established the Standardized Data Collection for Cardiovascular Trials Initiative in 2009 to simplify the design and conduct of clinical trials intended to support marketing applications. The writing committee recognizes that these definitions may be used in other types of clinical trials and clinical care processes where appropriate. Use of these definitions at the FDA has enhanced the ability to aggregate data within and across medical product development programs, conduct meta-analyses to evaluate cardiovascular safety, integrate data from multiple trials, and compare effectiveness of drugs and devices. Further study is needed to determine whether prospective data collection using these common definitions improves the design, conduct, and interpretability of the results of clinical trials.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jacc.2017.12.048DOI Listing
March 2018