Publications by authors named "Karen L Kotloff"

158 Publications

Postmortem investigations and identification of multiple causes of child deaths: An analysis of findings from the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) network.

PLoS Med 2021 Sep 30;18(9):e1003814. Epub 2021 Sep 30.

College of Health and Medical Sciences, Haramaya University, Harar, Ethiopia.

Background: The current burden of >5 million deaths yearly is the focus of the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) to end preventable deaths of newborns and children under 5 years old by 2030. To accelerate progression toward this goal, data are needed that accurately quantify the leading causes of death, so that interventions can target the common causes. By adding postmortem pathology and microbiology studies to other available data, the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) network provides comprehensive evaluations of conditions leading to death, in contrast to standard methods that rely on data from medical records and verbal autopsy and report only a single underlying condition. We analyzed CHAMPS data to characterize the value of considering multiple causes of death.

Methods And Findings: We examined deaths identified from December 2016 through November 2020 from 7 CHAMPS sites (in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and South Africa), including 741 neonatal, 278 infant, and 241 child <5 years deaths for which results from Determination of Cause of Death (DeCoDe) panels were complete. DeCoDe panelists included all conditions in the causal chain according to the ICD-10 guidelines and assessed if prevention or effective management of the condition would have prevented the death. We analyzed the distribution of all conditions listed as causal, including underlying, antecedent, and immediate causes of death. Among 1,232 deaths with an underlying condition determined, we found a range of 0 to 6 (mean 1.5, IQR 0 to 2) additional conditions in the causal chain leading to death. While pathology provides very helpful clues, we cannot always be certain that conditions identified led to death or occurred in an agonal stage of death. For neonates, preterm birth complications (most commonly respiratory distress syndrome) were the most common underlying condition (n = 282, 38%); among those with preterm birth complications, 256 (91%) had additional conditions in causal chains, including 184 (65%) with a different preterm birth complication, 128 (45%) with neonatal sepsis, 69 (24%) with lower respiratory infection (LRI), 60 (21%) with meningitis, and 25 (9%) with perinatal asphyxia/hypoxia. Of the 278 infant deaths, 212 (79%) had ≥1 additional cause of death (CoD) beyond the underlying cause. The 2 most common underlying conditions in infants were malnutrition and congenital birth defects; LRI and sepsis were the most common additional conditions in causal chains, each accounting for approximately half of deaths with either underlying condition. Of the 241 child deaths, 178 (75%) had ≥1 additional condition. Among 46 child deaths with malnutrition as the underlying condition, all had ≥1 other condition in the causal chain, most commonly sepsis, followed by LRI, malaria, and diarrheal disease. Including all positions in the causal chain for neonatal deaths resulted in 19-fold and 11-fold increases in attributable roles for meningitis and LRI, respectively. For infant deaths, the proportion caused by meningitis and sepsis increased by 16-fold and 11-fold, respectively; for child deaths, sepsis and LRI are increased 12-fold and 10-fold, respectively. While comprehensive CoD determinations were done for a substantial number of deaths, there is potential for bias regarding which deaths in surveillance areas underwent minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS), potentially reducing representativeness of findings.

Conclusions: Including conditions that appear anywhere in the causal chain, rather than considering underlying condition alone, markedly changed the proportion of deaths attributed to various diagnoses, especially LRI, sepsis, and meningitis. While CHAMPS methods cannot determine when 2 conditions cause death independently or may be synergistic, our findings suggest that considering the chain of events leading to death can better guide research and prevention priorities aimed at reducing child deaths.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003814DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8516282PMC
September 2021

Pathogens associated with linear growth faltering in children with diarrhea and impact of antibiotic treatment: The Global Enteric Multicenter Study.

J Infect Dis 2021 Sep 16. Epub 2021 Sep 16.

Centro de Investigação em Saúde de Manhiça (CISM), Maputo, Mozambique.

Background: The association between childhood diarrheal disease and linear growth faltering in developing countries is well-described. However, the impact attributed to specific pathogens has not been elucidated, nor has the impact of recommended antibiotic treatment.

Methods: The Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) enrolled children seeking healthcare with moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) at seven sites in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. At enrollment, we collected stool samples to identify enteropathogens. Length/height was measured at enrollment and follow-up, ~60 days later, to calculate change in length/height for age Z scores (ΔHAZ). The association of pathogens with ΔHAZ was tested by linear mixed effects regression models.

Results: Among 8,077 MSD cases analyzed, the proportion with stunting (HAZ<-1) increased from 59% at enrollment to 65% at follow-up (p<.0001). Pathogens significantly associated with linear growth decline were Cryptosporidium (p<0.001), typical enteropathogenic Escherichia coli (p=0.013), and untreated Shigella (p=0.009) among infants (0-11 months), and enterotoxigenic E. coli encoding heat stable toxin (p<0.001) and Cryptosporidium (p=0.03) among toddlers (12-23 months). Shigella-infected toddlers given antibiotics had improved linear growth (p=0.02).

Conclusion: Linear growth faltering among children aged 0-23 months with MSD is associated with specific pathogens and can be mitigated with targeted treatment strategies, as demonstrated for Shigella.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiab434DOI Listing
September 2021

Deaths Attributed to Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Young Children in High-Mortality Rate Settings: Report from Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS).

Clin Infect Dis 2021 09;73(Suppl_3):S218-S228

Instituto Nacional de Saúde, Maputo, Mozambique.

Background: Lower respiratory tract infections are a leading cause of death in young children, but few studies have collected the specimens needed to define the role of specific causes. The Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) platform aims to investigate causes of death in children aged <5 years in high-mortality rate settings, using postmortem minimally invasive tissue sampling and other advanced diagnostic techniques. We examined findings for deaths identified in CHAMPS sites in 7 countries in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia to evaluate the role of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).

Methods: We included deaths that occurred between December 2016 and December 2019. Panels determined causes of deaths by reviewing all available data including pathological results from minimally invasive tissue sampling, polymerase chain reaction screening for multiple infectious pathogens in lung tissue, nasopharyngeal swab, blood, and cerebrospinal fluid samples, clinical information from medical records, and verbal autopsies.

Results: We evaluated 1213 deaths, including 695 in neonates (aged <28 days), 283 in infants (28 days to <12 months), and 235 in children (12-59 months). RSV was detected in postmortem specimens in 67 of 1213 deaths (5.5%); in 24 deaths (2.0% of total), RSV was determined to be a cause of death, and it contributed to 5 other deaths. Younger infants (28 days to <6 months of age) accounted for half of all deaths attributed to RSV; 6.5% of all deaths in younger infants were attributed to RSV. RSV was the underlying and only cause in 4 deaths; the remainder (n = 20) had a median of 2 (range, 1-5) other conditions in the causal chain. Birth defects (n = 8) and infections with other pathogens (n = 17) were common comorbid conditions.

Conclusions: RSV is an important cause of child deaths, particularly in young infants. These findings add to the substantial body of literature calling for better treatment and prevention options for RSV in high-mortality rate settings.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciab509DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8411256PMC
September 2021

Global Respiratory Syncytial Virus-Related Infant Community Deaths.

Clin Infect Dis 2021 09;73(Suppl_3):S229-S237

Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Pediatrics, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.

Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of pediatric death, with >99% of mortality occurring in low- and lower middle-income countries. At least half of RSV-related deaths are estimated to occur in the community, but clinical characteristics of this group of children remain poorly characterized.

Methods: The RSV Global Online Mortality Database (RSV GOLD), a global registry of under-5 children who have died with RSV-related illness, describes clinical characteristics of children dying of RSV through global data sharing. RSV GOLD acts as a collaborative platform for global deaths, including community mortality studies described in this supplement. We aimed to compare the age distribution of infant deaths <6 months occurring in the community with in-hospital.

Results: We studied 829 RSV-related deaths <1 year of age from 38 developing countries, including 166 community deaths from 12 countries. There were 629 deaths that occurred <6 months, of which 156 (25%) occurred in the community. Among infants who died before 6 months of age, median age at death in the community (1.5 months; IQR: 0.8-3.3) was lower than in-hospital (2.4 months; IQR: 1.5-4.0; P < .0001). The proportion of neonatal deaths was higher in the community (29%, 46/156) than in-hospital (12%, 57/473, P < 0.0001).

Conclusions: We observed that children in the community die at a younger age. We expect that maternal vaccination or immunoprophylaxis against RSV will have a larger impact on RSV-related mortality in the community than in-hospital. This case series of RSV-related community deaths, made possible through global data sharing, allowed us to assess the potential impact of future RSV vaccines.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciab528DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8411255PMC
September 2021

The Etiology of Childhood Pneumonia in Mali: Findings From the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) Study.

Pediatr Infect Dis J 2021 Sep;40(9S):S18-S28

From the Department of Pediatrics, Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland.

Background: We present findings from the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) site in Bamako, Mali.

Methods: Cases were patients 28 days to 59 months of age, admitted to hospital with severe or very severe pneumonia (2005 World Health Organization definition). Community controls were frequency matched by age. Both provided nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs for multiplex polymerase chain reaction and Streptococcus pneumoniae culture. Cases underwent blood culture and induced sputum culture for Mycobacterium tuberculosis. A subset had pleural fluid and lung aspirates collected for culture and polymerase chain reaction. Primary analyses included participants with negative or unknown HIV status (HIV-) and cases with abnormal chest radiographs (CXR+). Cases and controls were compared using logistic regression adjusting for age. Etiologic fractions were calculated by a Bayesian nested partially latent class analysis, the PERCH integrated analysis.

Results: Between January 1, 2012, and January 14, 2014, we enrolled 241 CXR+/HIV- cases and 725 HIV- controls. Compared with controls, cases were more likely to have moderate-to-severe wasting (43.1% vs. 14.1%, P < 0.001) and stunting (26.6% vs. 9.4%, P < 0.001). Predominant etiologies were respiratory syncytial virus [24.0%; 95% credible interval (CrI): 18.3%-31.1%], S. pneumoniae (15.2%; 95% CrI: 9.5-21.6), human metapneumovirus (11.8%; 95% CrI: 8.3%-16.2%) and parainfluenza virus type 3 (9.0%; 95% CrI: 5.8%-13.3%). Case fatality was 13.3%, with Staphylococcus aureus, Pneumocystis jirovecii and Haemophilus influenzae type b predominating (40% of fatal cases).

Conclusions: PERCH uncovered high case fatality among children with severe pneumonia in Mali, highlighting a role for new interventions (eg, respiratory syncytial virus vaccines) and a need to improve vaccine coverage and strengthen healthcare delivery.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/INF.0000000000002767DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8448406PMC
September 2021

Introduction to the Site-specific Etiologic Results From the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) Study.

Pediatr Infect Dis J 2021 Sep;40(9S):S1-S6

From the Department of International Health, International Vaccine Access Center, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland.

The Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study evaluated the etiology of severe and very severe pneumonia in children hospitalized in 7 African and Asian countries. Here, we summarize the highlights of in-depth site-specific etiology analyses published separately in this issue, including how etiology varies by age, mortality status, malnutrition, severity, HIV status, and more. These site-specific results impart important lessons that can inform disease control policy implications.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/INF.0000000000002778DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8448396PMC
September 2021

Cost-effectiveness of infant respiratory syncytial virus preventive interventions in Mali: A modeling study to inform policy and investment decisions.

Vaccine 2021 08 26;39(35):5037-5045. Epub 2021 Jul 26.

Center for Vaccine Development & Global Health, 685 W. Baltimore St., University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland 21201, USA. Electronic address:

Importance: Low- and middle-income countries have a high burden of respiratory syncytial virus lower respiratory tract infections. A monoclonal antibody administered monthly is licensed to prevent these infections, but it is cost-prohibitive for most low- and middle-income countries. Long-acting monoclonal antibodies and maternal vaccines against respiratory syncytial virus are under development.

Objective: We estimated the likelihood of respiratory syncytial virus preventive interventions (current monoclonal antibody, long-acting monoclonal antibody, and maternal vaccine) being cost-effective in Mali.

Design: We modeled age-specific and season-specific risks of respiratory syncytial virus lower respiratory tract infections within monthly cohorts of infants from birth to six months. We parameterized with respiratory syncytial virus data from Malian cohort studies, as well as product efficacy from clinical trials. Integrating parameter uncertainty, we simulated health and economic outcomes for status quo without prevention, intra-seasonal monthly administration of licensed monoclonal antibody, pre-seasonal birth dose administration of a long-acting monoclonal antibody, and maternal vaccination. We then calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of each intervention compared to status quo from the perspectives of the government, donor, and society.

Results: At a price of $3 per dose and from the societal perspective, current monoclonal antibody, long-acting monoclonal antibody, and maternal vaccine would have incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of $4280 (95% CI $1892 to $122,434), $1656 (95% CI $734 to $9091), and $8020 (95% CI $3501 to $47,047) per disability-adjusted life-year averted, respectively.

Conclusions And Relevance: In Mali, long-acting monoclonal antibody is likely to be cost-effective from both the government and donor perspectives at $3 per dose. Maternal vaccine would need higher efficacy over that measured by a recent trial in order to be considered cost-effective.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.06.086DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8377743PMC
August 2021

Epidemiology of the Rhinovirus (RV) in African and Southeast Asian Children: A Case-Control Pneumonia Etiology Study.

Viruses 2021 06 27;13(7). Epub 2021 Jun 27.

Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka 50110, Zambia.

Rhinovirus (RV) is commonly detected in asymptomatic children; hence, its pathogenicity during childhood pneumonia remains controversial. We evaluated RV epidemiology in HIV-uninfected children hospitalized with clinical pneumonia and among community controls. PERCH was a case-control study that enrolled children (1-59 months) hospitalized with severe and very severe pneumonia per World Health Organization clinical criteria and age-frequency-matched community controls in seven countries. Nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs were collected for all participants, combined, and tested for RV and 18 other respiratory viruses using the Fast Track multiplex real-time PCR assay. RV detection was more common among cases (24%) than controls (21%) (aOR = 1.5, 95%CI:1.3-1.6). This association was driven by the children aged 12-59 months, where 28% of cases vs. 18% of controls were RV-positive (aOR = 2.1, 95%CI:1.8-2.5). Wheezing was 1.8-fold (aOR 95%CI:1.4-2.2) more prevalent among pneumonia cases who were RV-positive vs. RV-negative. Of the RV-positive cases, 13% had a higher probability (>75%) that RV was the cause of their pneumonia based on the PERCH integrated etiology analysis; 99% of these cases occurred in children over 12 months in Bangladesh. RV was commonly identified in both cases and controls and was significantly associated with severe pneumonia status among children over 12 months of age, particularly those in Bangladesh. RV-positive pneumonia was associated with wheezing.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/v13071249DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8310211PMC
June 2021

Global burden of acute lower respiratory infection associated with human parainfluenza virus in children younger than 5 years for 2018: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Lancet Glob Health 2021 08 21;9(8):e1077-e1087. Epub 2021 Jun 21.

Vienna Vaccine Safety Initiative, Berlin, Germany; Université Bourgogne-Franche Comté, Besançon, France.

Background: Human parainfluenza virus (hPIV) is a common virus in childhood acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI). However, no estimates have been made to quantify the global burden of hPIV in childhood ALRI. We aimed to estimate the global and regional hPIV-associated and hPIV-attributable ALRI incidence, hospital admissions, and mortality for children younger than 5 years and stratified by 0-5 months, 6-11 months, and 12-59 months of age.

Methods: We did a systematic review of hPIV-associated ALRI burden studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2020, found in MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Web of Science, Global Health Library, three Chinese databases, and Google search, and also identified a further 41 high-quality unpublished studies through an international research network. We included studies reporting community incidence of ALRI with laboratory-confirmed hPIV; hospital admission rates of ALRI or ALRI with hypoxaemia in children with laboratory-confirmed hPIV; proportions of patients with ALRI admitted to hospital with laboratory-confirmed hPIV; or in-hospital case-fatality ratios (hCFRs) of ALRI with laboratory-confirmed hPIV. We used a modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale to assess risk of bias. We analysed incidence, hospital admission rates, and hCFRs of hPIV-associated ALRI using a generalised linear mixed model. Adjustment was made to account for the non-detection of hPIV-4. We estimated hPIV-associated ALRI cases, hospital admissions, and in-hospital deaths using adjusted incidence, hospital admission rates, and hCFRs. We estimated the overall hPIV-associated ALRI mortality (both in-hospital and out-hospital mortality) on the basis of the number of in-hospital deaths and care-seeking for child pneumonia. We estimated hPIV-attributable ALRI burden by accounting for attributable fractions for hPIV in laboratory-confirmed hPIV cases and deaths. Sensitivity analyses were done to validate the estimates of overall hPIV-associated ALRI mortality and hPIV-attributable ALRI mortality. The systematic review protocol was registered on PROSPERO (CRD42019148570).

Findings: 203 studies were identified, including 162 hPIV-associated ALRI burden studies and a further 41 high-quality unpublished studies. Globally in 2018, an estimated 18·8 million (uncertainty range 12·8-28·9) ALRI cases, 725 000 (433 000-1 260 000) ALRI hospital admissions, and 34 400 (16 400-73 800) ALRI deaths were attributable to hPIVs among children younger than 5 years. The age-stratified and region-stratified analyses suggested that about 61% (35% for infants aged 0-5 months and 26% for 6-11 months) of the hospital admissions and 66% (42% for infants aged 0-5 months and 24% for 6-11 months) of the in-hospital deaths were in infants, and 70% of the in-hospital deaths were in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Between 73% and 100% (varying by outcome) of the data had a low risk in study design; the proportion was 46-65% for the adjustment for health-care use, 59-77% for patient groups excluded, 54-93% for case definition, 42-93% for sampling strategy, and 67-77% for test methods. Heterogeneity in estimates was found between studies for each outcome.

Interpretation: We report the first global burden estimates of hPIV-associated and hPIV-attributable ALRI in young children. Globally, approximately 13% of ALRI cases, 4-14% of ALRI hospital admissions, and 4% of childhood ALRI mortality were attributable to hPIV. These numbers indicate a potentially notable burden of hPIV in ALRI morbidity and mortality in young children. These estimates should encourage and inform investment to accelerate the development of targeted interventions.

Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(21)00218-7DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8298256PMC
August 2021

Upper Respiratory Tract Co-detection of Human Endemic Coronaviruses and High-density Pneumococcus Associated With Increased Severity Among HIV-Uninfected Children Under 5 Years Old in the PERCH Study.

Pediatr Infect Dis J 2021 06;40(6):503-512

Department of Pediatrics, Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland.

Background: Severity of viral respiratory illnesses can be increased with bacterial coinfection and can vary by sex, but influence of coinfection and sex on human endemic coronavirus (CoV) species, which generally cause mild to moderate respiratory illness, is unknown. We evaluated CoV and pneumococcal co-detection by sex in childhood pneumonia.

Methods: In the 2011-2014 Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health study, nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal (NP/OP) swabs and other samples were collected from 3981 children <5 years hospitalized with severe or very severe pneumonia in 7 countries. Severity by NP/OP detection status of CoV (NL63, 229E, OC43 or HKU1) and high-density (≥6.9 log10 copies/mL) pneumococcus (HDSpn) by real-time polymerase chain reaction was assessed by sex using logistic regression adjusted for age and site.

Results: There were 43 (1.1%) CoV+/HDSpn+, 247 CoV+/HDSpn-, 449 CoV-/HDSpn+ and 3149 CoV-/HDSpn- cases with no significant difference in co-detection frequency by sex (range 51.2%-64.0% male, P = 0.06). More CoV+/HDSpn+ pneumonia was very severe compared with other groups for both males (13/22, 59.1% versus range 29.1%-34.7%, P = 0.04) and females (10/21, 47.6% versus 32.5%-43.5%, P = 0.009), but only male CoV+/HDSpn+ required supplemental oxygen more frequently (45.0% versus 20.6%-28.6%, P < 0.001) and had higher mortality (35.0% versus 5.3%-7.1%, P = 0.004) than other groups. For females with CoV+/HDSpn+, supplemental oxygen was 25.0% versus 24.8%-33.3% (P = 0.58) and mortality was 10.0% versus 9.2%-12.9% (P = 0.69).

Conclusions: Co-detection of endemic CoV and HDSpn was rare in children hospitalized with pneumonia, but associated with higher severity and mortality in males. Findings may warrant investigation of differences in severity by sex with co-detection of HDSpn and SARS-CoV-2.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/INF.0000000000003139DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8104011PMC
June 2021

Rotavirus disease burden pre-vaccine introduction in young children in Rural Southern Mozambique, an area of high HIV prevalence.

PLoS One 2021 8;16(4):e0249714. Epub 2021 Apr 8.

Centro de Investigação em Saúde de Manhiça (CISM), Maputo, Mozambique.

Background: Rotavirus vaccines have been adopted in African countries since 2009, including Mozambique (2015). Disease burden data are needed to evaluate the impact of rotavirus vaccine. We report the burden of rotavirus-associated diarrhea in Mozambique from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) before vaccine introduction.

Methods: A case-control study (GEMS), was conducted in Manhiça district, recruiting children aged 0-59 months with moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) and less-severe-diarrhea (LSD) between December 2007 and November 2012; including 1-3 matched (age, sex and neighborhood) healthy community controls. Clinical and epidemiological data and stool samples (for laboratory investigation) were collected. Association of rotavirus with MSD or LSD was determined by conditional logistic regression and adjusted attributable fractions (AF) calculated, and risk factors for rotavirus diarrhea assessed.

Results: Overall 915 cases and 1,977 controls for MSD, and 431 cases and 430 controls for LSD were enrolled. Rotavirus positivity was 44% (217/495) for cases and 15% (160/1046) of controls, with AF = 34.9% (95% CI: 32.85-37.06) and adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) of 6.4 p< 0.0001 in infants with MSD compared to 30% (46/155) in cases and 14% (22/154) in controls yielding AF = 18.7%, (95% CI: 12.02-25.39) and aOR = 2.8, p = 0.0011 in infants with LSD. The proportion of children with rotavirus was 32% (21/66) among HIV-positive children and 23% (128/566) among HIV-negative ones for MSD. Presence of animals in the compound (OR = 1.9; p = 0.0151) and giving stored water to the child (OR = 2.0, p = 0.0483) were risk factors for MSD; while animals in the compound (OR = 2.37, p = 0.007); not having routine access to water on a daily basis (OR = 1.53, p = 0.015) and washing hands before cooking (OR = 1.76, p = 0.0197) were risk factors for LSD.

Conclusion: The implementation of vaccination against rotavirus may likely result in a significant reduction of rotavirus-associated diarrhea, suggesting the need for monitoring of vaccine impact.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0249714PLOS
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8031087PMC
September 2021

A modular approach to integrating multiple data sources into real-time clinical prediction for pediatric diarrhea.

Elife 2021 Feb 2;10. Epub 2021 Feb 2.

Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, United States.

Traditional clinical prediction models focus on parameters of the individual patient. For infectious diseases, sources external to the patient, including characteristics of prior patients and seasonal factors, may improve predictive performance. We describe the development of a predictive model that integrates multiple sources of data in a principled statistical framework using a post-test odds formulation. Our method enables electronic real-time updating and flexibility, such that components can be included or excluded according to data availability. We apply this method to the prediction of etiology of pediatric diarrhea, where 'pre-test' epidemiologic data may be highly informative. Diarrhea has a high burden in low-resource settings, and antibiotics are often over-prescribed. We demonstrate that our integrative method outperforms traditional prediction in accurately identifying cases with a viral etiology, and show that its clinical application, especially when used with an additional diagnostic test, could result in a 61% reduction in inappropriately prescribed antibiotics.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.63009DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7853717PMC
February 2021

Characteristics of Salmonella Recovered From Stools of Children Enrolled in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study.

Clin Infect Dis 2021 08;73(4):631-641

Medical Research Council Unit, The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia.

Background: The Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) determined the etiologic agents of moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) in children under 5 years old in Africa and Asia. Here, we describe the prevalence and antimicrobial susceptibility of nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS) serovars in GEMS and examine the phylogenetics of Salmonella Typhimurium ST313 isolates.

Methods: Salmonella isolated from children with MSD or diarrhea-free controls were identified by classical clinical microbiology and serotyped using antisera and/or whole-genome sequence data. We evaluated antimicrobial susceptibility using the Kirby-Bauer disk-diffusion method. Salmonella Typhimurium sequence types were determined using multi-locus sequence typing, and whole-genome sequencing was performed to assess the phylogeny of ST313.

Results: Of 370 Salmonella-positive individuals, 190 (51.4%) were MSD cases and 180 (48.6%) were diarrhea-free controls. The most frequent Salmonella serovars identified were Salmonella Typhimurium, serogroup O:8 (C2-C3), serogroup O:6,7 (C1), Salmonella Paratyphi B Java, and serogroup O:4 (B). The prevalence of NTS was low but similar across sites, regardless of age, and was similar among both cases and controls except in Kenya, where Salmonella Typhimurium was more commonly associated with cases than controls. Phylogenetic analysis showed that these Salmonella Typhimurium isolates, all ST313, were highly genetically related to isolates from controls. Generally, Salmonella isolates from Asia were resistant to ciprofloxacin and ceftriaxone, but African isolates were susceptible to these antibiotics.

Conclusions: Our data confirm that NTS is prevalent, albeit at low levels, in Africa and South Asia. Our findings provide further evidence that multidrug-resistant Salmonella Typhimurium ST313 can be carried asymptomatically by humans in sub-Saharan Africa.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciab051DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8366818PMC
August 2021

Global burden of acute lower respiratory infection associated with human metapneumovirus in children under 5 years in 2018: a systematic review and modelling study.

Lancet Glob Health 2021 01 26;9(1):e33-e43. Epub 2020 Nov 26.

Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.

Background: Human metapneumovirus is a common virus associated with acute lower respiratory infections (ALRIs) in children. No global burden estimates are available for ALRIs associated with human metapneumovirus in children, and no licensed vaccines or drugs exist for human metapneumovirus infections. We aimed to estimate the age-stratified human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI global incidence, hospital admissions, and mortality burden in children younger than 5 years.

Methods: We estimated the global burden of human metapneumovirus-associated ALRIs in children younger than 5 years from a systematic review of 119 studies published between Jan 1, 2001, and Dec 31, 2019, and a further 40 high quality unpublished studies. We assessed risk of bias using a modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. We estimated incidence, hospital admission rates, and in-hospital case-fatality ratios (hCFRs) of human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI using a generalised linear mixed model. We applied incidence and hospital admission rates of human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI to population estimates to yield the morbidity burden estimates by age bands and World Bank income levels. We also estimated human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI in-hospital deaths and overall human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI deaths (both in-hospital and non-hospital deaths). Additionally, we estimated human metapneumovirus-attributable ALRI cases, hospital admissions, and deaths by combining human metapneumovirus-associated burden estimates and attributable fractions of human metapneumovirus in laboratory-confirmed human metapneumovirus cases and deaths.

Findings: In 2018, among children younger than 5 years globally, there were an estimated 14·2 million human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI cases (uncertainty range [UR] 10·2 million to 20·1 million), 643 000 human metapneumovirus-associated hospital admissions (UR 425 000 to 977 000), 7700 human metapneumovirus-associated in-hospital deaths (2600 to 48 800), and 16 100 overall (hospital and community) human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI deaths (5700 to 88 000). An estimated 11·1 million ALRI cases (UR 8·0 million to 15·7 million), 502 000 ALRI hospital admissions (UR 332 000 to 762 000), and 11 300 ALRI deaths (4000 to 61 600) could be causally attributed to human metapneumovirus in 2018. Around 58% of the hospital admissions were in infants under 12 months, and 64% of in-hospital deaths occurred in infants younger than 6 months, of which 79% occurred in low-income and lower-middle-income countries.

Interpretation: Infants younger than 1 year have disproportionately high risks of severe human metapneumovirus infections across all World Bank income regions and all child mortality settings, similar to respiratory syncytial virus and influenza virus. Infants younger than 6 months in low-income and lower-middle-income countries are at greater risk of death from human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI than older children and those in upper-middle-income and high-income countries. Our mortality estimates demonstrate the importance of intervention strategies for infants across all settings, and warrant continued efforts to improve the outcome of human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI among young infants in low-income and lower-middle-income countries.

Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30393-4DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7783516PMC
January 2021

Associations between Household-Level Exposures and All-Cause Diarrhea and Pathogen-Specific Enteric Infections in Children Enrolled in Five Sentinel Surveillance Studies.

Int J Environ Res Public Health 2020 11 2;17(21). Epub 2020 Nov 2.

Division of Infectious Diseases, International Health and Public Health Sciences, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22903, USA.

Diarrheal disease remains a major cause of childhood mortality and morbidity causing poor health and economic outcomes. In low-resource settings, young children are exposed to numerous risk factors for enteric pathogen transmission within their dwellings, though the relative importance of different transmission pathways varies by pathogen species. The objective of this analysis was to model associations between five household-level risk factors-water, sanitation, flooring, caregiver education, and crowding-and infection status for endemic enteric pathogens in children in five surveillance studies. Data were combined from 22 sites in which a total of 58,000 stool samples were tested for 16 specific enteropathogens using qPCR. Risk ratios for pathogen- and taxon-specific infection status were modeled using generalized linear models along with hazard ratios for all-cause diarrhea in proportional hazard models, with the five household-level variables as primary exposures adjusting for covariates. Improved drinking water sources conferred a 17% reduction in diarrhea risk; however, the direction of its association with particular pathogens was inconsistent. Improved sanitation was associated with a 9% reduction in diarrhea risk with protective effects across pathogen species and taxa of around 10-20% risk reduction. A 9% reduction in diarrhea risk was observed in subjects with covered floors, which were also associated with decreases in risk for zoonotic enteropathogens. Caregiver education and household crowding showed more modest, inconclusive results. Combining data from diverse sites, this analysis quantified associations between five household-level exposures on risk of specific enteric infections, effects which differed by pathogen species but were broadly consistent with hypothesized transmission mechanisms. Such estimates may be used within expanded water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) programs to target interventions to the particular pathogen profiles of individual communities and prioritize resources.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17218078DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7663028PMC
November 2020

The Clinical Presentation of Culture-positive and Culture-negative, Quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction (qPCR)-Attributable Shigellosis in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study and Derivation of a Shigella Severity Score: Implications for Pediatric Shigella Vaccine Trials.

Clin Infect Dis 2021 08;73(3):e569-e579

Center for Global Health Research, Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI), Kenya.

Background: Shigella is a leading cause of childhood diarrhea and target for vaccine development. Microbiologic and clinical case definitions are needed for pediatric field vaccine efficacy trials.

Methods: We compared characteristics of moderate to severe diarrhea (MSD) cases in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) between children with culture positive Shigella to those with culture-negative, quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR)-attributable Shigella (defined by an ipaH gene cycle threshold <27.9). Among Shigella MSD cases, we determined risk factors for death and derived a clinical severity score.

Results: Compared to culture-positive Shigella MSD cases (n = 745), culture-negative/qPCR-attributable Shigella cases (n = 852) were more likely to be under 12 months, stunted, have a longer duration of diarrhea, and less likely to have high stool frequency or a fever. There was no difference in dehydration, hospitalization, or severe classification from a modified Vesikari score. Twenty-two (1.8%) Shigella MSD cases died within the 14-days after presentation to health facilities, and 59.1% of these deaths were in culture-negative cases. Age <12 months, diarrhea duration prior to presentation, vomiting, stunting, wasting, and hospitalization were associated with mortality. A model-derived score assigned points for dehydration, hospital admission, and longer diarrhea duration but was not significantly better at predicting 14-day mortality than a modified Vesikari score.

Conclusions: A composite severity score consistent with severe disease or dysentery may be a pragmatic clinical endpoint for severe shigellosis in vaccine trials. Reliance on culture for microbiologic confirmation may miss a substantial number of Shigella cases but is currently required to measure serotype specific immunity.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa1545DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8326551PMC
August 2021

Clinical predictors for etiology of acute diarrhea in children in resource-limited settings.

PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2020 10 9;14(10):e0008677. Epub 2020 Oct 9.

Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, United States of America.

Background: Diarrhea is one of the leading causes of childhood morbidity and mortality in lower- and middle-income countries. In such settings, access to laboratory diagnostics are often limited, and decisions for use of antimicrobials often empiric. Clinical predictors are a potential non-laboratory method to more accurately assess diarrheal etiology, the knowledge of which could improve management of pediatric diarrhea.

Methods: We used clinical and quantitative molecular etiologic data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS), a prospective, case-control study, to develop predictive models for the etiology of diarrhea. Using random forests, we screened the available variables and then assessed the performance of predictions from random forest regression models and logistic regression models using 5-fold cross-validation.

Results: We identified 1049 cases where a virus was the only etiology, and developed predictive models against 2317 cases where the etiology was known but non-viral (bacterial, protozoal, or mixed). Variables predictive of a viral etiology included lower age, a dry and cold season, increased height-for-age z-score (HAZ), lack of bloody diarrhea, and presence of vomiting. Cross-validation suggests an AUC of 0.825 can be achieved with a parsimonious model of 5 variables, achieving a specificity of 0.85, a sensitivity of 0.59, a NPV of 0.82 and a PPV of 0.64.

Conclusion: Predictors of the etiology of pediatric diarrhea can be used by providers in low-resource settings to inform clinical decision-making. The use of non-laboratory methods to diagnose viral causes of diarrhea could be a step towards reducing inappropriate antibiotic prescription worldwide.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008677DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7588112PMC
October 2020

Digital auscultation in PERCH: Associations with chest radiography and pneumonia mortality in children.

Pediatr Pulmonol 2020 11 11;55(11):3197-3208. Epub 2020 Sep 11.

Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, Zambia.

Background: Whether digitally recorded lung sounds are associated with radiographic pneumonia or clinical outcomes among children in low-income and middle-income countries is unknown. We sought to address these knowledge gaps.

Methods: We enrolled 1 to 59monthold children hospitalized with pneumonia at eight African and Asian Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health sites in six countries, recorded digital stethoscope lung sounds, obtained chest radiographs, and collected clinical outcomes. Recordings were processed and classified into binary categories positive or negative for adventitial lung sounds. Listening and reading panels classified recordings and radiographs. Recording classification associations with chest radiographs with World Health Organization (WHO)-defined primary endpoint pneumonia (radiographic pneumonia) or mortality were evaluated. We also examined case fatality among risk strata.

Results: Among children without WHO danger signs, wheezing (without crackles) had a lower adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for radiographic pneumonia (0.35, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.15, 0.82), compared to children with normal recordings. Neither crackle only (no wheeze) (aOR: 2.13, 95% CI: 0.91, 4.96) or any wheeze (with or without crackle) (aOR: 0.63, 95% CI: 0.34, 1.15) were associated with radiographic pneumonia. Among children with WHO danger signs no lung recording classification was independently associated with radiographic pneumonia, although trends toward greater odds of radiographic pneumonia were observed among children classified with crackle only (no wheeze) or any wheeze (with or without crackle). Among children without WHO danger signs, those with recorded wheezing had a lower case fatality than those without wheezing (3.8% vs. 9.1%, p = .03).

Conclusions: Among lower risk children without WHO danger signs digitally recorded wheezing is associated with a lower odds for radiographic pneumonia and with lower mortality. Although further research is needed, these data indicate that with further development digital auscultation may eventually contribute to child pneumonia care.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ppul.25046DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7692889PMC
November 2020

Incidence and etiology of clinically-attended, antibiotic-treated diarrhea among children under five years of age in low- and middle-income countries: Evidence from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study.

PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2020 08 10;14(8):e0008520. Epub 2020 Aug 10.

Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy, New Delhi, India.

Diarrhea is a leading cause of antibiotic consumption among children in low- and middle-income countries. While vaccines may prevent diarrhea infections for which children often receive antibiotics, the contribution of individual enteropathogens to antibiotic use is minimally understood. We used data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) to estimate pathogen-specific incidence of antibiotic-treated diarrhea among children under five years old residing in six countries of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia before rotavirus vaccine implementation. GEMS was an age-stratified, individually-matched case-control study. Stool specimens were obtained from children presenting to sentinel health clinics with newly-onset, acute diarrhea (including moderate-to-severe and less-severe diarrhea) as well as matched community controls without diarrhea. We used data from conventional and quantitative molecular diagnostic assays applied to stool specimens to estimate the proportion of antibiotic-treated diarrhea cases attributable to each pathogen. Antibiotics were administered or prescribed to 9,606 of 12,109 moderate-to-severe cases and 1,844 of 3,174 less-severe cases. Across all sites, incidence rates of clinically-attended, antibiotic-treated diarrhea were 12.2 (95% confidence interval: 9.0-17.8), 10.2 (7.4-13.9) and 1.9 (1.3-3.0) episodes per 100 child-years at risk at ages 6 weeks to 11 months, 12-23 months, and 24-59 months, respectively. Based on the recommendation for antibiotic treatment to be reserved for cases with dysentery, we estimated a ratio of 12.6 (8.6-20.8) inappropriately-treated diarrhea cases for each appropriately-treated case. Rotavirus, adenovirus serotypes 40/41, Shigella, sapovirus, Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli, and Cryptosporidium were the leading antibiotic-treated diarrhea etiologies. Rotavirus caused 29.2% (24.5-35.2%) of antibiotic-treated cases, including the largest share in both the first and second years of life. Shigella caused 14.9% (11.4-18.9%) of antibiotic-treated cases, and was the leading etiology at ages 24-59 months. Our findings should inform the prioritization of vaccines with the greatest potential to reduce antibiotic exposure among children.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008520DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7444547PMC
August 2020

Surveillance for Invasive Salmonella Disease in Bamako, Mali, From 2002 to 2018.

Clin Infect Dis 2020 07;71(Suppl 2):S130-S140

Department of Pediatrics and Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.

Background: Salmonella enterica bloodstream infections are an important cause of childhood morbidity and mortality, including in Mali. We report 17 years of surveillance for nontyphoidal and typhoidal S. enterica infections among inpatients and outpatients at l'Hôpital Gabriel Touré, the main source of pediatric tertiary care in Bamako, Mali.

Methods: Between June 2002 and December 2018, a blood culture was collected from 54 748 children aged ≤15 years with fever and/or suspected invasive bacterial infection who provided consent (38 152 inpatients, 16 596 outpatients). Bacterial pathogens were identified using standard microbiological techniques and serovars of S. enterica were determined by PCR and/or agglutination with antisera.

Results: Nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS) was identified in 671 enrolled inpatients (1.8% of all enrolled inpatients, 13.8% of enrolled inpatients with a positive culture). S. Enteritidis, the most common NTS serovar, accounted for 38.5% of all NTS isolates (n = 258), followed by S. Typhimurium (31.7%, n = 213). The median (SD) age of children with a culture positive for NTS was 1.8 (3) years. Overall case fatality was 20.9%. An additional 138 inpatients (0.4%) had a positive culture for typhoidal Salmonella. NTS was identified in 11 outpatients (0.07%), while typhoidal Salmonella was found in 49 outpatients (0.3%). The annual incidence of invasive NTS disease decreased over the study period, but case fatality remained high.

Conclusions: Although incidence decreased, NTS remained a major cause of invasive bacterial infection and mortality among hospitalized children in Bamako, while typhoidal Salmonella was uncommon. Because 87% of NTS belonged to only 4 serovars, a multivalent vaccine may be an effective strategy to reduce the burden and mortality of invasive NTS.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa482DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7388721PMC
July 2020

The Aetiology of pneumonia from analysis of Lung aspirate and Pleural fluid samples: Findings from the PERCH study.

Clin Infect Dis 2020 Jul 25. Epub 2020 Jul 25.

Division of Infectious Disease and Tropical Pediatrics, Department of Pediatrics, Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.

Background: An improved understanding of childhood pneumonia aetiology is required to inform prevention and treatment strategies. Lung aspiration is the gold standard specimen for pneumonia diagnostics. We report findings from analyses of lung and pleural aspirates collected in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study.

Methods: The PERCH study enrolled children aged 1-59 months hospitalized with World Health Organization defined severe or very severe pneumonia in 7 countries in Africa and Asia. Percutaneous trans-thoracic lung (LA) and pleural fluid (PF) aspiration was performed on a sample of pneumonia cases with radiological consolidation and/or pleural fluid in 4 countries. Venous blood and nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs were collected from all cases. Multiplex quantitative PCR and routine microbiologic culture were applied to clinical specimens.

Results: Of 44 LAs performed within 3 days of admission on 622 eligible cases, 13 (30%) had a pathogen identified by either culture (5/44) or by PCR (11/29). A pathogen was identified in 12/14 (86%) PF specimens tested by either culture (9/14) or PCR (9/11). Bacterial pathogens were identified more frequently than viruses. All but one of the cases with a virus identified were co-infected with bacterial pathogens. Streptococcus pneumoniae (9/44 [20%]) and Staphylococcus aureus (7/14 [50%]) were the predominant pathogen identified in LA and PF, respectively.

Conclusions: Bacterial pathogens predominated in this selected subgroup of PERCH participants drawn from those with radiological consolidation or pleural fluid, with S. pneumoniae and S. aureus the leading pathogens identified.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa1032DOI Listing
July 2020

Initial findings from a novel population-based child mortality surveillance approach: a descriptive study.

Lancet Glob Health 2020 07;8(7):e909-e919

Center for Global Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.

Background: Sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia contributed 81% of 5·9 million under-5 deaths and 77% of 2·6 million stillbirths worldwide in 2015. Vital registration and verbal autopsy data are mainstays for the estimation of leading causes of death, but both are non-specific and focus on a single underlying cause. We aimed to provide granular data on the contributory causes of death in stillborn fetuses and in deceased neonates and children younger than 5 years, to inform child mortality prevention efforts.

Methods: The Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) Network was established at sites in seven countries (Baliakandi, Bangladesh; Harar and Kersa, Ethiopia; Siaya and Kisumu, Kenya; Bamako, Mali; Manhiça, Mozambique; Bombali, Sierra Leone; and Soweto, South Africa) to collect standardised, population-based, longitudinal data on under-5 mortality and stillbirths in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, to improve the accuracy of determining causes of death. Here, we analysed data obtained in the first 2 years after the implementation of CHAMPS at the first five operational sites, during which surveillance and post-mortem diagnostics, including minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS), were used. Data were abstracted from all available clinical records of deceased children, and relevant maternal health records were also extracted for stillbirths and neonatal deaths, to incorporate reported pregnancy or delivery complications. Expert panels followed standardised procedures to characterise causal chains leading to death, including underlying, intermediate (comorbid or antecedent causes), and immediate causes of death for stillbirths, neonatal deaths, and child (age 1-59 months) deaths.

Findings: Between Dec 10, 2016, and Dec 31, 2018, MITS procedures were implemented at five sites in Mozambique, South Africa, Kenya, Mali, and Bangladesh. We screened 2385 death notifications for inclusion eligibility, following which 1295 families were approached for consent; consent was provided for MITS by 963 (74%) of 1295 eligible cases approached. At least one cause of death was identified in 912 (98%) of 933 cases (180 stillbirths, 449 neonatal deaths, and 304 child deaths); two or more conditions were identified in the causal chain for 585 (63%) of 933 cases. The most common underlying causes of stillbirth were perinatal asphyxia or hypoxia (130 [72%] of 180 stillbirths) and congenital infection or sepsis (27 [15%]). The most common underlying causes of neonatal death were preterm birth complications (187 [42%] of 449 neonatal deaths), perinatal asphyxia or hypoxia (98 [22%]), and neonatal sepsis (50 [11%]). The most common underlying causes of child deaths were congenital birth defects (39 [13%] of 304 deaths), lower respiratory infection (37 [12%]), and HIV (35 [12%]). In 503 (54%) of 933 cases, at least one contributory pathogen was identified. Cytomegalovirus, Escherichia coli, group B Streptococcus, and other infections contributed to 30 (17%) of 180 stillbirths. Among neonatal deaths with underlying prematurity, 60% were precipitated by other infectious causes. Of the 275 child deaths with infectious causes, the most common contributory pathogens were Klebsiella pneumoniae (86 [31%]), Streptococcus pneumoniae (54 [20%]), HIV (40 [15%]), and cytomegalovirus (34 [12%]), and multiple infections were common. Lower respiratory tract infection contributed to 174 (57%) of 304 child deaths.

Interpretation: Cause of death determination using MITS enabled detailed characterisation of contributing conditions. Global estimates of child mortality aetiologies, which are currently based on a single syndromic cause for each death, will be strengthened by findings from CHAMPS. This approach adds specificity and provides a more complete overview of the chain of events leading to death, highlighting multiple potential interventions to prevent under-5 mortality and stillbirths.

Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30205-9DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7303945PMC
July 2020

Next-generation rotavirus vaccines: important progress but work still to be done.

Lancet Infect Dis 2020 07 3;20(7):762-764. Epub 2020 Apr 3.

Department of Pediatrics, Center for Vaccine Development, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30151-1DOI Listing
July 2020

The effect of acute malnutrition on enteric pathogens, moderate-to-severe diarrhoea, and associated mortality in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study cohort: a post-hoc analysis.

Lancet Glob Health 2020 02;8(2):e215-e224

Childhood Acute Illness and Nutrition (CHAIN) Network, Nairobi, Kenya; International Centre for Diarrheal Disease Research (icddr, b), Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Background: Host vulnerabilities associated with acute malnutrition could facilitate the ability of specific enteric pathogens to cause diarrhoea and associated mortality. Using data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study, we assessed whether acute malnutrition modifies the association between common enteric pathogens and moderate-to-severe diarrhoea, and whether associations between enteric pathogens and death were modified by acute malnutrition.

Methods: Children with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea and age-matched and community-matched controls were included in this post-hoc analysis if their mid-upper arm circumference had been measured and if they were older than 6 months of age. Acute malnutrition was defined as mid-upper arm circumference below 12·5 cm, capturing both severe acute malnutrition (<11·5 cm) and moderate acute malnutrition (≥11·5 cm and <12·5 cm). We tested whether acute malnutrition modified associations between enteric pathogens and moderate-to-severe diarrhoea in conditional logistic regression models. Among children with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea, Cox proportional hazards regression evaluated the modifying effect of acute malnutrition on the relationship between pathogens and 60-day fatality rate.

Findings: The age, site, and co-infection adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for moderate-to-severe diarrhoea associated with typical enteropathogenic Escherichia coli among children aged 6-11 months was 2·08 (95% CI 1·14-3·79) in children with acute malnutrition, and 0·97 (0·77-1·23) in children with better nutritional status, compared with healthy controls. Enterotoxigenic E coli producing heat-stable toxin among children aged 12-23 months also had a stronger association with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea in children with acute malnutrition (aOR 7·60 [2·63-21·95]) than among similarly aged children with better nutritional status (aOR 2·39 [1·76-3·25]). Results for Shigella spp, norovirus, and sapovirus suggested they had a stronger association with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea than other pathogens among children with better nutritional status, although Shigella spp remained associated with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea in both nutritional groups. 92 (64%) of 144 children with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea who died had acute malnutrition. Pathogen-specific 60-day fatality rates for all pathogens were higher among children with acute malnutrition, but no individual pathogen had a significantly larger increase in its relative association with mortality.

Interpretation: Acute malnutrition might strengthen associations between specific pathogens and moderate-to-severe diarrhoea. However, the strong link between acute malnutrition and mortality during moderate-to-severe diarrhoea in children is not limited to specific infections, and affects a broad spectrum of enteric pathogens. Interventions addressing acute malnutrition could be an effective way to lower the mortality of both childhood malnutrition and diarrhoea.

Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(19)30498-XDOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7025322PMC
February 2020

Abundance in Breastfed Infants and Identification of a New Species in the Global Enterics Multicenter Study.

mSphere 2020 01 15;5(1). Epub 2020 Jan 15.

Complex Carbohydrate Research Center, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, USA

is a leading cause of bacterial diarrhea worldwide and is associated with high rates of mortality and growth stunting in children inhabiting low- to middle-resource countries. To better understand the impact of breastfeeding on infection in infants in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, we examined fecal microbial compositions, bacterial isolates, and their carbohydrate metabolic pathways in -positive infants <1 year of age from the Global Enterics Multicenter Study. Exclusively breastfed infants with diarrhea exhibited high abundances, and this negatively correlated with bacterial carbohydrate metabolism. Although and are prevalent among these infants, the second most abundant species was a new species, which we named " Campylobacter infans." Asymptomatic carriers also possess significantly different proportions of specific gut microbes compared to diarrheal cases. These findings provide insight into infections in infants in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia and help inform strategies aimed at eliminating campylobacteriosis in these areas. is the primary cause of bacterial diarrhea in the United States and can lead to the development of the postinfectious autoimmune neuropathy known as Guillain-Barré syndrome. Also, drug-resistant campylobacters are becoming a serious concern both locally and abroad. In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), infection with is linked to high rates of morbidity, growth stunting, and mortality in children, and breastfeeding is important for infant nutrition, development, and protection against infectious diseases. In this study, we examined the relationship between breastfeeding and infection and demonstrate the increased selection for and strains unable to metabolize fucose. We also identify a new species coinfecting these infants with a high prevalence in five of the seven countries in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia examined. These findings indicate that more detailed studies are needed in LMICs to understand the infection process in order to devise a strategy for eliminating this pathogenic microbe.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1128/mSphere.00735-19DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6968651PMC
January 2020

Diarrhoeal disease and subsequent risk of death in infants and children residing in low-income and middle-income countries: analysis of the GEMS case-control study and 12-month GEMS-1A follow-on study.

Lancet Glob Health 2020 02 18;8(2):e204-e214. Epub 2019 Dec 18.

Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia.

Background: The Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) was a 3-year case-control study that measured the burden, aetiology, and consequences of moderate-to-severe diarrhoea (MSD) in children aged 0-59 months. GEMS-1A, a 12-month follow-on study, comprised two parallel case-control studies, one assessing MSD and the other less-severe diarrhoea (LSD). In this report, we analyse the risk of death with each diarrhoea type and the specific pathogens associated with fatal outcomes.

Methods: GEMS was a prospective, age-stratified, matched case-control study done at seven sites in Africa and Asia. Children aged 0-59 months with MSD seeking care at sentinel health centres were recruited along with one to three randomly selected matched community control children without diarrhoea. In the 12-month GEMS-1A follow-on study, children with LSD and matched controls, in addition to children with MSD and matched controls, were recruited at six of the seven sites; only cases of MSD and controls were enrolled at the seventh site. We compared risk of death during the period between enrolment and one follow-up household visit done about 60 days later (range 50-90 days) in children with MSD and LSD and in their respective controls. Approximately 50 pathogens were detected using, as appropriate, classic bacteriology, immunoassays, gel-based PCR and reverse transcriptase PCR, and quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR). Specimens from a subset of GEMS cases and controls were also tested by a TaqMan Array Card that compartmentalised probe-based qPCR for 32 enteropathogens.

Findings: 223 (2·0%) of 11 108 children with MSD and 43 (0·3%) of 16 369 matched controls died between study enrolment and the follow-up visit at about 60 days (hazard ratio [HR] 8·16, 95% CI 5·69-11·68, p<0·0001). 12 (0·4%) of 2962 children with LSD and seven (0·2%) of 4074 matched controls died during the follow-up period (HR 2·78, 95% CI 0·95-8·11, p=0·061). Risk of death was lower in children with dysenteric MSD than in children with non-dysenteric MSD (HR 0·20, 95% CI 0·05-0·87, p=0·032), and lower in children with LSD than in those with non-dysenteric MSD (HR 0·29, 0·14-0·59, p=0·0006). In children younger than 24 months with MSD, infection with typical enteropathogenic Escherichia coli, enterotoxigenic E coli encoding heat-stable toxin, enteroaggregative E coli, Shigella spp (non-dysentery cases), Aeromonas spp, Cryptosporidium spp, and Entamoeba histolytica increased risk of death. Of 61 deaths in children aged 12-59 months with non-dysenteric MSD, 31 occurred among 942 children qPCR-positive for Shigella spp and 30 deaths occurred in 1384 qPCR-negative children (HR 2·2, 95% CI 1·2-3·9, p=0·0090), showing that Shigella was strongly associated with increased risk of death.

Interpretation: Risk of death is increased following MSD and, to a lesser extent, LSD. Considering there are approximately three times more cases of LSD than MSD in the population, more deaths are expected among children with LSD than in those with MSD. Because the major attributable LSD-associated and MSD-associated pathogens are the same, implementing vaccines and rapid diagnosis and treatment interventions against these major pathogens are rational investments.

Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(19)30541-8DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7025325PMC
February 2020

Consensus Report on Shigella Controlled Human Infection Model: Conduct of Studies.

Clin Infect Dis 2019 12;69(Suppl 8):S580-S590

Enteric Disease Department, Naval Medical Research Center, Silver Spring, Maryland.

Shigella causes morbidity and mortality worldwide, primarily affecting young children living in low-resource settings. It is also of great concern due to increasing antibiotic resistance, and is a priority organism for the World Health Organization. A Shigella vaccine would decrease the morbidity and mortality associated with shigellosis, improve child health, and decrease the need for antibiotics. Controlled human infection models (CHIMs) are useful tools in vaccine evaluation for early up- or down-selection of vaccine candidates and potentially useful in support of licensure. Over time, the methods employed in these models have become more uniform across sites performing CHIM trials, although some differences in conduct persist. In November 2017, a Shigella CHIM workshop was convened in Washington, District of Columbia. Investigators met to discuss multiple aspects of these studies, including study procedures, clinical and immunological endpoints, and shared experiences. This article serves as a uniform procedure by which to conduct Shigella CHIM studies.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciz892DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6901126PMC
December 2019

Determinants of linear growth faltering among children with moderate-to-severe diarrhea in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study.

BMC Med 2019 11 25;17(1):214. Epub 2019 Nov 25.

Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, Department of Pediatrics and Medicine, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.

Background: Moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) in the first 2 years of life can impair linear growth. We sought to determine risk factors for linear growth faltering and to build a clinical prediction tool to identify children most likely to experience growth faltering following an episode of MSD.

Methods: Using data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study of children 0-23 months old presenting with MSD in Africa and Asia, we performed log-binomial regression to determine clinical and sociodemographic factors associated with severe linear growth faltering (loss of ≥ 0.5 length-for-age z-score [LAZ]). Linear regression was used to estimate associations with ΔLAZ. A clinical prediction tool was developed using backward elimination of potential variables, and Akaike Information Criterion to select the best fit model.

Results: Of the 5902 included children, mean age was 10 months and 43.2% were female. Over the 50-90-day follow-up period, 24.2% of children had severe linear growth faltering and the mean ΔLAZ over follow-up was - 0.17 (standard deviation [SD] 0.54). After adjustment for age, baseline LAZ, and site, several factors were associated with decline in LAZ: young age, acute malnutrition, hospitalization at presentation, non-dysenteric diarrhea, unimproved sanitation, lower wealth, fever, co-morbidity, or an IMCI danger sign. Compared to children 12-23 months old, those 0-6 months were more likely to experience severe linear growth faltering (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] 1.97 [95% CI 1.70, 2.28]), as were children 6-12 months of age (aPR 1.72 [95% CI 1.51, 1.95]). A prediction model that included age, wasting, stunting, presentation with fever, and presentation with an IMCI danger sign had an area under the ROC (AUC) of 0.67 (95% CI 0.64, 0.69). Risk scores ranged from 0 to 37, and a cut-off of 21 maximized sensitivity (60.7%) and specificity (63.5%).

Conclusion: Younger age, acute malnutrition, MSD severity, and sociodemographic factors were associated with short-term linear growth deterioration following MSD. Data routinely obtained at MSD may be useful to predict children at risk for growth deterioration who would benefit from interventions.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12916-019-1441-3DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6878715PMC
November 2019

Mortality Surveillance Methods to Identify and Characterize Deaths in Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance Network Sites.

Clin Infect Dis 2019 10;69(Suppl 4):S262-S273

Center for Global Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.

Despite reductions over the past 2 decades, childhood mortality remains high in low- and middle-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In these settings, children often die at home, without contact with the health system, and are neither accounted for, nor attributed with a cause of death. In addition, when cause of death determinations occur, they often use nonspecific methods. Consequently, findings from models currently utilized to build national and global estimates of causes of death are associated with substantial uncertainty. Higher-quality data would enable stakeholders to effectively target interventions for the leading causes of childhood mortality, a critical component to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals by eliminating preventable perinatal and childhood deaths. The Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) Network tracks the causes of under-5 mortality and stillbirths at sites in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia through comprehensive mortality surveillance, utilizing minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS), postmortem laboratory and pathology testing, verbal autopsy, and clinical and demographic data. CHAMPS sites have established facility- and community-based mortality notification systems, which aim to report potentially eligible deaths, defined as under-5 deaths and stillbirths within a defined catchment area, within 24-36 hours so that MITS can be conducted quickly after death. Where MITS has been conducted, a final cause of death is determined by an expert review panel. Data on cause of death will be provided to local, national, and global stakeholders to inform strategies to reduce perinatal and childhood mortality in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciz599DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6785672PMC
October 2019

Overview and Development of the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance Determination of Cause of Death (DeCoDe) Process and DeCoDe Diagnosis Standards.

Clin Infect Dis 2019 10;69(Suppl 4):S333-S341

Emory Global Health Institute, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.

Mortality surveillance and cause of death data are instrumental in improving health, identifying diseases and conditions that cause a high burden of preventable deaths, and allocating resources to prevent these deaths. The Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) network uses a standardized process to define, assign, and code causes of stillbirth and child death (<5 years of age) across the CHAMPS network. A Determination of Cause of Death (DeCoDe) panel composed of experts from a local CHAMPS site analyzes all available individual information, including laboratory, histopathology, abstracted clinical records, and verbal autopsy findings for each case and, if applicable, also for the mother. Using this information, the site panel ascertains the underlying cause (event that precipitated the fatal sequence of events) and other antecedent, immediate, and maternal causes of death in accordance with the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision and the World Health Organization death certificate. Development and use of the CHAMPS diagnosis standards-a framework of required evidence to support cause of death determination-assures a homogenized procedure leading to a more consistent interpretation of complex data across the CHAMPS network. This and other standardizations ensures future comparability with other sources of mortality data produced externally to this project. Early lessons learned from implementation of DeCoDe in 5 CHAMPS sites in sub-Saharan Africa and Bangladesh have been incorporated into the DeCoDe process, and the implementation of DeCoDe has the potential to spur health systems improvements and local public health action.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciz572DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6785670PMC
October 2019
-->