Publications by authors named "Joshua Akinyemi"

85 Publications

A Novel Afrocentric Stroke Risk Assessment Score: Models from the Siren Study.

J Stroke Cerebrovasc Dis 2021 Jul 28;30(10):106003. Epub 2021 Jul 28.

Medical University of South Carolina, SC, USA.

Background: Stroke risk can be quantified using risk factors whose effect sizes vary by geography and race. No stroke risk assessment tool exists to estimate aggregate stroke risk for indigenous African.

Objectives: To develop Afrocentric risk-scoring models for stroke occurrence.

Materials And Methods: We evaluated 3533 radiologically confirmed West African stroke cases paired 1:1 with age-, and sex-matched stroke-free controls in the SIREN study. The 7,066 subjects were randomly split into a training and testing set at the ratio of 85:15. Conditional logistic regression models were constructed by including 17 putative factors linked to stroke occurrence using the training set. Significant risk factors were assigned constant and standardized statistical weights based on regression coefficients (β) to develop an additive risk scoring system on a scale of 0-100%. Using the testing set, Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves were constructed to obtain a total score to serve as cut-off to discriminate between cases and controls. We calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) at this cut-off.

Results: For stroke occurrence, we identified 15 traditional vascular factors. Cohen's kappa for validity was maximal at a total risk score of 56% using both statistical weighting approaches to risk quantification and in both datasets. The risk score had a predictive accuracy of 76% (95%CI: 74-79%), sensitivity of 80.3%, specificity of 63.0%, PPV of 68.5% and NPV of 76.2% in the test dataset. For ischemic strokes, 12 risk factors had predictive accuracy of 78% (95%CI: 74-81%). For hemorrhagic strokes, 7 factors had a predictive accuracy of 79% (95%CI: 73-84%).

Conclusions: The SIREN models quantify aggregate stroke risk in indigenous West Africans with good accuracy. Prospective studies are needed to validate this instrument for stroke prevention.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2021.106003DOI Listing
July 2021

Situation assessment and natural dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria, 31 May 2020.

Sci Afr 2021 Jul 12;12:e00844. Epub 2021 Jul 12.

Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, University of Ibadan, Nigeria.

Background: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) remains a global public health issue due to its high transmission and case fatality rate. There is apprehension on how to curb the spread and mitigate the socio-economic impacts of the pandemic, but timely and reliable daily confirmed cases' estimates are pertinent to the pandemic's containment. This study therefore conducted a situation assessment and applied simple predictive models to explore COVID-19 progression in Nigeria as at 31 May 2020.

Methods: Data used for this study were extracted from the websites of the European Centre for Disease Control (World Bank data) and Nigeria Centre for Disease Control. Besides descriptive statistics, four predictive models were fitted to investigate the pandemic natural dynamics.

Results: The case fatality rate of COVID-19 was 2.8%. A higher number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 was reported daily after the relaxation of lockdown than before and during lockdown. Of the 36 states in Nigeria, including the Federal Capital Territory, 35 have been affected with COVID-19. Most active cases were in Lagos (n = 4064; 59.2%), followed by Kano (n = 669; 9.2%). The percentage of COVID-19 recovery in Nigeria (29.5%) was lower compared to South Africa (50.3%), but higher compared to Kenya (24.1%). The cubic polynomial model had the best fit. The projected value for COVID-19 cumulative cases for 30 June 2020 in Nigeria was 27,993 (95% C.I: 27,001-28,986).

Conclusion: The daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 are increasing in Nigeria. Increasing testing capacity for the disease may further reveal more confirmed cases. As observed in this study, the cubic polynomial model currently offers a better prediction of the future COVID-19 cases in Nigeria.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2021.e00844DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8274274PMC
July 2021

Caregiver burden and associated factors amongst carers of women with advanced breast cancer attending a radiation oncology clinic in Nigeria.

Afr J Prim Health Care Fam Med 2021 Jun 15;13(1):e1-e8. Epub 2021 Jun 15.

University College Hospital, Ibadan.

Background: The responsibility of caring for patients with advanced cancer in sub-Saharan Africa is mostly shouldered by family members because of paucity of institutional facilities. There is a growing concern that the number of women needing treatment for advanced breast cancer is rising at an unprecedented rate in Nigeria.

Aim: To assess the caregiver burden and its associated factors amongst family caregivers of women with advanced breast cancer.

Setting: The study was conducted at the radiation oncology clinic of the University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria.

Methods: A cross-sectional descriptive study was conducted amongst 157 eligible family caregivers of women with advanced breast cancer. The family caregivers completed an interviewer-administered questionnaire, which included the socio-demographic data, the caregiving process and the Zarit Burden Interview (ZBI). Logistic regression was used to identify factors, and ethical approval was obtained.

Results: Over half (53%) of the respondents were males with spousal caregivers dominantly constituting 27.4% of all respondents, closely followed by daughters (25.5%) of the care recipients. The mean ZBI score was 29.84 ± 13.9. Most (72%) of the caregivers experienced burden. Factors associated with caregiver burden were previous hospitalisation of the care recipient (odds ratio [OR] = 3.74, confidence interval [CI]: 1.67 to 8.38) and perceived dysfunction in patients activities of daily living (OR = 2.57, CI: 1.14 to 5.78).

Conclusion: Family caregivers of women with advanced breast cancer experience burden of care. Recognition of this vulnerable population and the care recipient as a dyad is a sine qua non in mitigating the burden associated with their caregiving role.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.4102/phcfm.v13i1.2812DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8252173PMC
June 2021

Frequency and factors associated with post-stroke seizures in a large multicenter study in West Africa.

J Neurol Sci 2021 Aug 9;427:117535. Epub 2021 Jun 9.

Federal Medical Centre, Abeokuta, Nigeria; Center for Genomic and Precision Medicine, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Nigeria.

Background: Post-stroke seizures (PSS) are associated with significant morbidity and mortality across the globe. There is a paucity of data on PSS in Africa.

Purpose: To assess the frequency and factors associated with PSS by stroke types across 15 hospitals in Nigeria and Ghana.

Methods: We analyzed data on all stroke cases recruited into the Stroke Investigative Research and Educational Network (SIREN). We included adults aged ≥18 years with radiologically confirmed ischemic stroke (IS) or intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). PSS were defined as acute symptomatic seizures occurring at stroke onset and/or during acute hospitalization up until discharge. We used logistic regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios (aOR) with 95% Confidence Interval.

Results: Among 3344 stroke patients, 499 (14.9%) had PSS (95% CI: 13.7-16.2%). The mean duration of admission in days for those with PSS vs no PSS was 17.4 ± 28.6 vs 15.9 ± 24.7, p = 0.72. There were 294(14.1%) PSS among 2091 ischemic strokes and 159(17.7%) among 897 with ICH, p = 0.01. The factors associated with PSS occurrence were age < 50 years, aOR of 1.59 (1.08-2.33), National Institute of Health Stroke Score (NIHSS), 1.29 (1.16-1.42) for each 5 units rise and white cell count 1.07 (1.01-1.13) for each 10^3 mm rise. Factors associated with PSS in ischemic were NIHSS score, aOR of 1.17 (1.04-1.31) and infarct volume of 10-30 cm aOR of 2.17(1.37-3.45). Among ICH, associated factors were alcohol use 5.91 (2.11-16.55) and lobar bleeds 2.22 (1.03-4.82).

Conclusion: The burden of PSS among this sample of west Africans is substantial and may contribute to poor outcomes of stroke in this region. Further longitudinal studies are required to understand the impact on morbidity and mortality arising from PSS in Africa.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jns.2021.117535DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8325635PMC
August 2021

Psychological Distress and Its Correlates among Newly Diagnosed People Living with HIV in Northwest Ethiopia: Ordinal Logistic Regression Analyses.

Infect Dis (Auckl) 2021 14;14:1178633721994598. Epub 2021 Feb 14.

Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Faculty of Public Health, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria.

Background: Although there is a high burden of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), studies on mental health issues among people living with HIV are scarce. The study addressed the transition to "test and treat" guidelines for HIV, which makes it unique regarding its evaluation of psychological distress amongst newly initiated people living with HIV in the test and treat era.

Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 689 people newly diagnosed with HIV. Symptoms of psychological distress were measured using the Kessler-10 psychological distress assessment scale. Factors associated with psychological distress were captured using interviewer-administered questionnaires. Ordinal logistic regression analyses were employed to identify predictors of psychological distress.

Results: The magnitude of psychological distress was 58.63% (95% CI = 55.2%-62.3%). The severity of the psychological distress of which, 17.42% had severe distress. Psychological distress was observed more among female patients (β = 0.47, AOR = 1.59, 95% CI = 1.12, 2.27), patients presented with opportunistic infections (β = 0.50, AOR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.03, 2.66) and being non-working functional status (β = 0.99, AOR = 2.70, 95% CI = 1.64, 4.45). Moreover, patients who were malnourished (β = 0.46, AOR = 1.58, 95% CI = 1.09, 2.26), having good level of knowledge on HIV prevention (β = 0.59, 95% CI = 0.55, 0.39, 0.78), presented with sexually transmitted infection (β = 0.48, AOR = 1.61, 95% CI = 1.01, 2.58), history of alcohol use (β = 0.44, AOR = 1.55, 95% CI = 1.09, 2.21), perceived stigma (β = 0.08, AOR = 1.09 95% CI = 1.04, 1.15) and treated in health centers (β = 0.55, AOR = 1.74, 95% CI = 1.25, 2.41) had higher odds of psychological distress.

Conclusion: The large majority of newly diagnosed HIV patients suffered from psychological distress. An increased vulnerability was observed among females, those with opportunistic and sexually transmitted infections, those having poor functional status and malnourished. Furthermore, HIV patients treated in health centers, those who had history of alcohol use and patients with high level of HIV related stigma are more negatively affected by the HIV diagnosis. Hence, all intervention strategies should target all the identified predictors.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1178633721994598DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7890707PMC
February 2021

Demography of remarriage and fertility desire among women receiving antiretroviral therapy in South West Nigeria.

Afr J AIDS Res 2021 Mar 25;20(1):15-24. Epub 2021 Feb 25.

Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria.

In view of sociocultural norms surrounding marriage and childbearing in South West Nigeria, fertility desire may be stronger among remarried women living with HIV. This article describes the characteristics of remarriage and its relationship to fertility desire. A cross-sectional study was conducted among HIV-positive women aged 18-49 years at the Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) clinic, College of Medicine/University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria between November and December 2015. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics and generalised linear models. Overall, 123 (17.3%) of 711 women had experienced remarriage. Significant factors among remarried women were a lack of formal education (OR = 3.35, CI: 1.46-7.72); polygamous family (OR = 2.65, CI: 1.71-4.12), and serodiscordant union (OR = 1.97, CI: 1.14-3.41). Fertility desire was expressed by 410 women (57.7%). After controlling for demographic, socio-economic, and HIV-care characteristics, remarried women were 2.5 times as likely to have fertility desire compared to their counterparts who never remarried (OR = 2.49, CI: 1.43-4.33). Younger age was significantly associated with higher odds of fertility desire. Other factors negatively associated with fertility desire were education (OR = 0.30, CI: 0.12-0.74) and number of surviving children (OR = 0.28, CI: 0.22-0.34). HIV-care and treatment programmes need to pay attention to reproductive concerns, especially among women in second and higher order marriages.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.2989/16085906.2020.1853187DOI Listing
March 2021

The spread of COVID-19 outbreak in the first 120 days: a comparison between Nigeria and seven other countries.

BMC Public Health 2021 01 12;21(1):129. Epub 2021 Jan 12.

Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria.

Background: COVID-19 is an emerging public health emergency of international concern. The trajectory of the global spread is worrisome, particularly in heavily populated countries such as Nigeria. The study objective was to assess and compare the pattern of COVID-19 spread in Nigeria and seven other countries during the first 120 days of the outbreak.

Methods: Data was extracted from the World Bank's website. A descriptive analysis was conducted as well as modelling of COVID-19 spread from day one through day 120 in Nigeria and seven other countries. Model fitting was conducted using linear, quadratic, cubic and exponential regression methods (α=0.05).

Results: The COVID-19 spread pattern in Nigeria was similar to the patterns in Egypt, Ghana and Cameroun. The daily death distribution in Nigeria was similar to those of six out of the seven countries considered. There was an increasing trend in the daily COVID-19 confirmed cases in Nigeria. During the lockdown, the growth rate in Nigeria was 5.85 (R=0.728, p< 0.001); however, it was 8.42 (R=0.625, p< 0.001) after the lockdown was relaxed. The cubic polynomial model (CPM) provided the best fit for predicting COVID-19 cumulative cases across all the countries investigated and there was a clear deviation from the exponential growth model. Using the CPM, the predicted number of cases in Nigeria at 3-month (30 September 2020) was 155,467 (95% CI:151,111-159,824, p< 0.001), all things being equal.

Conclusions: Improvement in COVID-19 control measures and strict compliance with the COVID-19 recommended protocols are essential. A contingency plan is needed to provide care for the active cases in case the predicted target is attained.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-020-10149-xDOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7802991PMC
January 2021

Socio-economic status and hunger among orphans and vulnerable children households in Lagos State, Nigeria.

Afr Health Sci 2020 Jun;20(2):923-931

Association for Reproductive and Family Health.

Background: HIV/AIDS has contributed to increasing orphans and vulnerable children in Nigeria. A measure of vulnerability is household hunger.

Objective: To assess level of household hunger and associated factors among OVC households in Lagos State.

Methods: A cross-sectional survey of 1300 OVC households in 5 selected Local Government Areas. The LGAs were selected using the Household Vulnerability Assessment index. Data collection was by personal interview of households' heads/caregivers using a structured questionnaire capturing socio-demographic, household economic profile and food-related variables. A multivariate logit model was fitted to identify independent predictors of household hunger after adjusting for confounding variables.

Results: The population density was 5.1 and 52.8% were females. A larger proportion of females (84.6%) than males (78.3%) reported that they had no food to eat in the last four weeks prior the survey. Poor household economic status (OR=1.41, CI: 1.03-1.92), age and marital status of caregiver were independent predictors of household hunger. The odds of hunger increased with caregiver's age; higher in households headed by never married (OR=3.99, CI: 1.15-13.89) and divorced/separated caregivers (OR=2.39, CI: 1.11-5.12).

Conclusion: OVC households experienced severe hunger. Household economic strengthening would be useful strategy to mitigate the nutrition challenges of OVC in Lagos state.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/ahs.v20i2.47DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7609119PMC
June 2020

Gender and educational attainment influence willingness to donate organs among older Nigerians: a questionnaire survey.

Pan Afr Med J 2020 17;36:288. Epub 2020 Aug 17.

Department of Health Promotion and Education, Faculty of Public Health, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria.

Introduction: disparity between the demand for and the supply of organs for transplantation remains a major public health issue of global concern. This study evaluated the knowledge and determinants of willingness to donate organs among outpatient clinic attendees in a Nigerian teaching hospital.

Methods: a 43-item semi-structured interviewer-administered questionnaire was designed to assess awareness and willingness of individuals attending Neurology, Psychiatry and Geriatrics Outpatient clinics to donate bodily organs for transplantation. Association between participants' characteristics and willingness towards organ donation was investigated using logistic regression models.

Results: a total of 412 participants were interviewed and mean age was 46.3 (16.1) years. There were 229 (55.6%) females and 92.5% had at least 6 years of formal education. Overall, 330 (80.1%) were aware of donation of at least one organ for transplantation purposes but only 139 (33.7%) were willing to donate organ. In analyses, adjusting for sex, marital status, family setting and educational status, male gender AOR [2.066(1.331-3.2016)] secondary education [AOR 5.57 (1.205-25.729) p= 0.028] and post-secondary education [AOR-6.98 (1.537-31.702) p= 0.012 were independently associated with willingness towards organ donation.

Conclusion: the survey revealed high level of awareness but poor willingness towards organ donation among older Nigerians attending outpatient clinics of a premier tertiary hospital. Male gender and educational attainment were significantly associated with willingness to donate. Educational programs that particularly target women and less educated older Nigerians are needed to promote organ donation in Nigeria.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.11604/pamj.2020.36.288.21125DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7572693PMC
January 2021

Pre-Stroke Depression in Ghana and Nigeria: Prevalence, Predictors and Association With Poststroke Depression.

J Geriatr Psychiatry Neurol 2020 Oct 19:891988720968274. Epub 2020 Oct 19.

University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA.

Objectives: Depression is a risk factor for stroke. There is a knowledge gap on the predictors of prestroke depression in stroke survivors living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We estimated prevalence and predictors of prestroke depression, as well as its association with poststroke depression (PSD) in the largest study of stroke in Africa.

Methods: We evaluated information collected as part of the Stroke Investigative Research and Education Network (SIREN) study, a multicentre, case-control study conducted at 15 sites in Ghana and Nigeria. Prestroke depression status was ascertained in stroke survivors using a validated self-report tool, while PSD was assessed using a stroke specific screening tool for depression ("HRQOLISP-E"). Independent associations were investigated using complementary log-log regression and binary logit models.

Results: Among 1,977 participants, prestroke depression was found in 141 (7.1%). In multivariate analyses, prestroke depression was significantly associated with tachycardia (OR = 2.22, 95% CI = 1.37-3.56) and low consumption of green leafy vegetables (OR = 1.91, 95% CI = 1.12-3.24). Forty-one (29.1%) of the prestroke depression sub-sample developed PSD. However, prestroke depression was not significantly associated with PSD.

Conclusion: The findings should energize before-the-stroke identification and prioritization of limited treatment resources in LMICs to persons with depression who have multiple, additional, risks of stroke.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0891988720968274DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8241399PMC
October 2020

Semi-parametric model for timing of first childbirth after HIV diagnosis among women of childbearing age in Ibadan, Nigeria.

PLoS One 2020 7;15(10):e0240247. Epub 2020 Oct 7.

Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria.

Background: HIV diagnosis is a watershed in women's childbearing experience. It is usually accompanied by the fear of death and stigmatisation. Women diagnosed of HIV are often sceptical about pregnancy. Meanwhile, availability of antiretroviral treatments has impacted positively on childbearing experience among women living with HIV. We therefore investigated the timing of first childbirth after HIV diagnosis and its determinants among women in Ibadan, Nigeria.

Methods: We extracted and analysed data from a 2015 cross-sectional study on childbearing progression among 933 women living with HIV and receiving care at University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria. Extended Cox proportional hazards regression, a semi-parametric event history model was used at 5% significance level.

Results: The women's mean age was 38.1 (± SD = 6.1) years and the median time to first birth after HIV diagnosis (FBI_HIV) was 8 years. The likelihood of first birth after HIV diagnosis was lower among women who desired more children (HR = 0.63, CI: 0.51-0.78). Women whose partners had primary and secondary education respectively were about 2.3 times more likely to shorten FBI_HIV compared to those whose partners had no formal education. Knowledge of partner's HIV-positive status (HR = 1.42, CI: 1.04,1.93) increased the likelihood of having a first birth after HIV diagnosis. Older age, longer duration on ART and a higher number of children at diagnosis were associated with a declined hazard of first birth after HIV diagnosis.

Conclusions: The median time to first childbirth after HIV diagnosis was long. Partner's HIV-positive status and higher educational attainment were associated with early childbearing after HIV diagnosis.
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http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0240247PLOS
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7540879PMC
December 2020

Risky Sexual Practice, Sexually Transmitted Infection and Associated Factors Among Newly Diagnosed HIV-positive People in Northwest Ethiopia.

HIV AIDS (Auckl) 2020 18;12:431-439. Epub 2020 Sep 18.

Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Faculty of Public Health, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria.

Purpose: Risky sexual practice expose for the acquisition of sexually transmitted infection (STI) including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). This study was conducted to fill the knowledge gap on the prevalence of risky sexual practice, STIs and associated factors among newly diagnosed HIV-positive people in northwest Ethiopia.

Patients And Methods: This study was a cross-sectional study design which was conducted on 745 newly diagnosed HIV patients. An interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to interview patients within seven days of HIV diagnosis using client exit interview approach. Data were entered to EpiData and exported to SPSS version 24 for analysis. Binary logistic regression analysis was employed to select factors for multivariate logistic regression at -value of less than 0.25. Two separate logistic regression models were used for risky sexual practice and STI as dependent variables. The strength of statistical association was quantified using an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) with a 95% confidence level.

Results: The prevalence of risky sexual practices and STIs among newly diagnosed HIV-positive people were 15.8% (95%CI: 13.1-18.4) and 6.6% (95%CI: 4.8-8.5), respectively. Although there were no statistically significant factors associated with STI, having two or more lifetime sexual partners (AOR=3.19; 95%CI: 1.57-6.49) and frequent use of alcohol (AOR=3.10; 95%CI: 1.34-7.19) were the factors associated with risky sexual practice.

Conclusion: Risky sexual practice and STI were found to be low among newly identified HIV patients. Factors associated with risky sexual practice failed to explain STI diagnosis using the syndromic approach. Therefore, revisiting the definition of risky sexual practice is necessary for the universal test and treat approach since sustained viral suppression may leave the need for consistent use of condoms among HIV patients who are on ART especially with regular sexual partners. Further study is also recommended to measure changes in sexual practice after initiating antiretroviral therapy.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.2147/HIV.S267215DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7509308PMC
September 2020

Death registration in Nigeria: a systematic literature review of its performance and challenges.

Glob Health Action 2020 12;13(1):1811476

MNCH Program Strategy Team, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation , Seattle, WA, USA.

Background: Death registration provides an opportunity for the legal documentation of death of persons. Documentation of deaths has several implications including its use in the recovery of inheritance and insurance benefits. It is also an important input for construction of life tables which are crucial for national planning. However, the registration of deaths is poor in several countries including Nigeria.

Objective: This paper describes the performance of death registration in Nigeria and factors that may affect its performance.

Methods: We conducted a systematic literature review of death registration completeness in Nigeria to identify, characterize issues as well as challenges associated with realizing completeness in death registration.

Results: Only 13.5% of deaths in Nigeria were registered in 2007 which regressed to 10% in 2017. There was no data reported for Nigeria in the World Health Organization database between 2008 and 2017. The country scored less than 0.1 (out of a maximum of 1) on the Vital Statistics Performance Index. There are multiple institutions with parallel constitutional and legal responsibilities for death registration in Nigeria including the National Population Commission, National Identity Management Commission and Local Government Authorities, which may be contributing to its overall poor performance.

Conclusions: We offer proposals to substantially improve death registration completeness in Nigeria including the streamlining and merger of the National Population Commission and the National Identity Management Commission into one commission, the revision of the legal mandate of the new agency to mainly coordination and establishment of standards. We recommend that Local Government authorities maintain the local registries given their proximity to households. This arrangement will be enhanced by increased utilization of information and communications technology in Civil Registration and Vital Statistics processes that ensure records are properly archived.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/16549716.2020.1811476DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7783065PMC
December 2020

Predictors and prognoses of new onset post-stroke anxiety at one year in black Africans.

J Stroke Cerebrovasc Dis 2020 Sep 3;29(9):105082. Epub 2020 Jul 3.

University of California San Francisco, United States.

Background: There is relatively limited information on the risk factors and outcome of new onset Poststroke Anxiety (PSA) in Low- and Middle-Income Countries. We estimated incidence, cumulative incidence, risk factors and outcome of new onset anxiety in the first year of stroke among African stroke survivors.

Methods: We analyzed the dataset of a completed clinical trial comprising patients enrolled to test an intervention designed to improve one-year blood pressure control among recent (≤ one month) stroke survivors in Nigeria. Anxiety was measured using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale. Outcomes were assessed using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS), Community screening instrument for dementia (CSID) and Health Related Quality of Life in Stroke Patients (HRQOLISP-26).

Results: Among 322 stroke survivors who were free of anxiety at baseline, we found a one-year cumulative incidence of 34% (95% CI = 28.6-39.3). Rates were 36.2% (95% CI =29.6-42.7) for men and 29.2% (95% CI =19.9-38.3) for women. In multivariate Cox regression analyses, haemorrhagic stroke type was associated with higher risk of new onset PSA (Hazard Ratio=1.52, 95% CI =1.01-2.29). New onset PSA was independently associated with cognitive [(mean difference (MD) in CSID scores=1.1, 95% C.I=0.2, 1.9)] and motor decline (MD in mRS scores= -0.2, 95% C.I= -0.4, -0.02), as well as poorer quality of life overtime (MD in total HRQOLISP-26 scores=3.6, 95% C.I=1.0, 6.2).

Conclusion: One in 3 stroke survivors in Nigeria had PSA at one year. Clinicians in SSA should pay special attention to survivors of haemorrhagic stroke as they are at higher risk of incident anxiety and therefore its consequences.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2020.105082DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7673258PMC
September 2020

How long was the honeymoon? Accelerated failure time model of spousal violence onset among women in sub-Saharan Africa.

Women Health 2020 10 5;60(9):987-999. Epub 2020 Aug 5.

Demography and Population Studies Programme, Schools of Public Health and Social Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand , Johannesburg, South Africa.

For primary prevention of spousal violence which is highly prevalent in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), an important empirical question is "how early in a marital relationship does spousal violence commence? In this study, we employed descriptive statistics, Kaplan-Meier method and accelerated failure time models to estimate prevalence of parental history of spousal violence; estimate the timing of onset of spousal violence for sub-regions of SSA and assess the associated factors. We analyzed a weighted sample of 62,274 women aged 15-49 years from the domestic violence module of Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 14 SSA countries between 2015 and 2018. Prevalence of spousal violence among ever married women ranged from 20.5% in Nigeria to 45.9%% in Burundi. The median time to first spousal violence after marriage in Western, Middle, Eastern, and Southern Africa was 2 years. Results from accelerated failure time models showed that age at marriage, educational attainment, and parental history of spousal violence were independently associated with early onset of spousal violence in all SSA subregions (West: TR = 0.21, CI 0.19-0.24; Middle: TR = 0.38, CI 0.34-0.43; East: TR = 0.46, CI 0.44-0.49; South: TR = 0.50, CI 0.46-0.54). Adolescents, youth, and older adults should be targeted for preventive and corrective interventions for spousal violence.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/03630242.2020.1784367DOI Listing
October 2020

How soon do single mothers have another child? A competing risk analysis of second premarital childbearing in sub-Saharan African countries.

BMC Pregnancy Childbirth 2020 Mar 29;20(1):185. Epub 2020 Mar 29.

Demography and Population Studies Programme, Schools of Public Health and Social Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.

Background: A considerable number of previous studies have examined the trends, correlates, and consequences of premarital childbearing among adolescents and young women in Africa. However, very little is known about whether and how soon single mothers have another premarital birth in sub-Saharan African countries. This study examines the timing of a second premarital birth among single mothers and assesses how it may differ across key socio-demographic variables.

Methods: We pooled recent Demographic and Health Surveys from 25 sub-Saharan African countries to create a database of 57, 219 single mothers aged 15-49 years. Cumulative incidence graphs and Fine and Gray's competing risk models were used to delineate the timing of a second premarital birth and its socio-demographic correlates.

Results: More than one-third of single mothers in 16 countries have had a second premarital birth in their reproductive life. We also observed that more than 15% of the single mothers in Angola, Benin, the Republic of Chad, Liberia, Namibia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, and Uganda, have had another premarital birth three years after the first. The incidence of a second premarital birth was significantly lower among women with secondary or higher education, compared to women with less than secondary education (p < 0.05) in most countries. Residence in an urban area compared to rural, was also significantly associated with a low incidence of second premarital birth in 10 countries (p < 0.05).

Conclusions: Findings indicate a rapid progression to having a second premarital birth in some sub-Sahara African countries, particularly among socio-economically disadvantaged women. The findings suggest the need for tailored interventions for improving the quality of life of single mothers, to reduce the associated burden and consequences of having a premarital birth.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12884-020-2850-1DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7104531PMC
March 2020

Does economic growth reduce childhood stunting? A multicountry analysis of 89 Demographic and Health Surveys in sub-Saharan Africa.

BMJ Glob Health 2020 23;5(1):e002042. Epub 2020 Jan 23.

School of International Development and Global Studies, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.

Background: There is mixed evidence and lack of consensus on the impact of economic development on stunting, and likewise there is a dearth of empirical studies on this relationship in the case of sub-Saharan Africa. Thus, this paper examines whether economic growth is associated with childhood stunting in low-income and middle-income sub-Saharan African countries.

Methods: We analysed data from 89 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 1987 and 2016 available as of October 2018 using multivariable multilevel logistic regression models to show the association between gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and stunting. We adjusted the models for child's age, survey year, child's sex, birth order and country random effect, and presented adjusted and unadjusted ORs.

Results: We included data from 490 526 children. We found that the prevalence of stunting decreased with increasing GDP per capita (correlation coefficient=-0.606, p<0.0001). In the unadjusted model for full sample, for every US$1000 increase in GDP per capita, the odds of stunting decreased by 23% (OR=0.77, 95% CI 0.76 to 0.78). The magnitude of the association between GDP per capita and stunting was stronger among children in the richest quintile. After adjustment was made, the association was not significant among children from the poorest quintile. However, the magnitude of the association was more pronounced among children from low-income countries, such that, in the model adjusted for child's age, survey year, child's sex, birth order and country random effect, the association between GDP per capita and stunting remained statistically significant; for every US$1000 increase in GDP per capita, the odds of stunting decreased by 12% (OR=0.88, 95% CI 0.87 to 0.90).

Conclusion: There was no significant association between economic growth and child nutritional status. The prevalence of stunting decreased with increasing GDP per capita. This was more pronounced among children from the richest quintile. The magnitude of the association was higher among children from low-income countries, suggesting that households in the poorest quintile were typically the least likely to benefit from economic gains. The findings could serve as a building block needed to modify current policy as per child nutrition-related programmes in Africa.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2019-002042DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7042587PMC
January 2021

Unraveling the risk factors for spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage among West Africans.

Neurology 2020 03 19;94(10):e998-e1012. Epub 2020 Feb 19.

From Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (F.S.S., L.A., A. Singh, D.O.), Kumasi, Ghana; University of California (B.O.), San Francisco; Medical University of South Carolina (M.G., D.L., C.J., F.M.), Charleston; College of Medicine (O. Akpa, G. Ogbole, M.O., J.A., A.O., A. Adeoye, L. Ogunjimi, O. Arulogun, F.A., O. Ogah, A. Makanjuola, O. Adebayo, A. Agunloye, S.L., S.D., M.F., C.E.), University of Ibadan, Nigeria; University of Ghana Medical School (A. Akpalu, R.L., B.C.-T.), Accra; University of Ilorin Teaching Hospital (K.W., L. Oyinloye, P.K., E.S.); Federal Medical Centre (R.A., O. Adeleye), Abeokuta; Ahmadu Bello University (R.O., O.B., V.S., H.I.), Zaria; Obafemi Awolowo University Teaching Hospital (M.K., B.F., O. Ajose, S.O.), Ile-Ife; Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital (L. Owolabi, A. Mande), Kano, Nigeria; University of Kentucky (D.A.), Lexington; University of Alabama at Birmingham (H.T.); University of Cambridge (H.S.M.), UK; Delta State University Teaching Hospital (O. Olugbo); Jos Teaching Hospital (G. Osaigbovo, A. Salaam, G.A., C.I.), Plateau State; Federal Medical Centre (I.C.), Umuahia, Abia State; Federal Medical Centre (T.S.), Owo, Ondo State; and Ladoke Akintola University of Technology Teaching Hospital (A. Akintunde), Ogbomosho, Oyo State, Nigeria.

Objective: To characterize risk factors for spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH) occurrence and severity among West Africans.

Methods: The Stroke Investigative Research and Educational Network (SIREN) study is a multicenter case-control study involving 15 sites in Ghana and Nigeria. Patients were adults ≥18 years old with CT-confirmed sICH with age-, sex-, and ethnicity-matched stroke-free community controls. Standard instruments were used to assess vascular, lifestyle, and psychosocial factors. Factors associated with sICH and its severity were assessed using conditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and population-attributable risks (PARs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for factors.

Results: Of 2,944 adjudicated stroke cases, 854 were intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Mean age of patients with ICH was 54.7 ± 13.9 years, with a male preponderance (63.1%), and 77.3% were nonlobar. Etiologic subtypes of sICH included hypertension (80.9%), structural vascular anomalies (4.0%), cerebral amyloid angiopathy (0.7%), systemic illnesses (0.5%), medication-related (0.4%), and undetermined (13.7%). Eight factors independently associated with sICH occurrence by decreasing order of PAR with their adjusted OR (95% CI) were hypertension, 66.63 (20.78-213.72); dyslipidemia, 2.95 (1.84-4.74); meat consumption, 1.55 (1.01-2.38); family history of CVD, 2.22 (1.41-3.50); nonconsumption of green vegetables, 3.61 (2.07-6.31); diabetes mellitus, 2.11 (1.29-3.46); stress, 1.68 (1.03-2.77); and current tobacco use, 14.27 (2.09-97.47). Factors associated with severe sICH using an NIH Stroke Scale score >15 with adjusted OR (95% CI) were nonconsumption of leafy green vegetables, 2.03 (1.43-2.88); systolic blood pressure for each mm Hg rise, 1.01 (1.00-1.01); presence of midline shift, 1.54 (1.11-2.13); lobar ICH, 1.72 (1.16-2.55); and supratentorial bleeds, 2.17 (1.06-4.46).

Conclusions: Population-level control of the dominant factors will substantially mitigate the burden of sICH in West Africa.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1212/WNL.0000000000009056DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7238923PMC
March 2020

Patterns of delivery assistance among adolescent mothers in Nigeria.

Midwifery 2020 Mar 28;82:102619. Epub 2019 Dec 28.

Demography and Population Studies Programme, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, University of Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria.

Objective: This study examined the sociodemographic and sociocultural factors associated with the pattern of birth assistance used among adolescent mothers aged 15-19 in Nigeria.

Design: The study used a quantitative design, using secondary data from the Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 2003 and 2013.

Setting: The study was nationally representative and conducted across Nigeria.

Participants: A weighted sample of 2,096 adolescent mothers aged 15-19.

Measurements And Findings: Data were analysed using frequencies, chi square tests and multinomial logistic regression respectively. It was discovered that mothers aged 18 and above had lower odds of using traditional and skilled birth attendants (aORs = 0.68 (0.51-0.92); 0.63 (0.44-0.92)); Igbo mothers had lower odds of using TBAs (aOR = 0.03 (0.002-0.53)); and mothers in female-headed households were less likely to use SBAs (aOR = 0.40 (0.20-0.82)). Rich mothers were more likely to use SBAs (aOR = 2.21 (1.23-3.94)). Mothers whose partners had at least primary education were more likely to use SBAs (aOR = 1.73 (1.09-2.73); 1.64 (1.03-2.59)). Adolescent mothers in the North East (aOR = 5.79 (2.91-11.51)), North West (aOR = 8.24 (4.01-16.93)), South East (aOR = 69.70 (13.96-348.05)) and South South (aOR = 27.84(7.80-99.30)) were more likely to use TBAs, while mothers in the North East (aOR = 0.46 (0.28-0.76)) and North West (aOR = 0.50 (0.29-0.84)) were less likely to use SBAs. Mothers who used partial ANC were more likely to use SBAs (aOR = 5.73 (3.43-9.56)), while those who used full ANC were more likely to use SBA (aOR = 7.33 (4.76-11.29)).

Key Conclusions: Higher socioeconomic status mothers were more likely to use skilled birth attendance.

Implications For Practice: Interventions to increase SBA use among adolescent mothers in Nigeria must consider the continued preference for traditional and unskilled birth attendants and unassisted births, and design culturally sensitive programmes.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.midw.2019.102619DOI Listing
March 2020

Unraveling the Ethical, Legal, and Social Implications of Neurobiobanking and Stroke Genomic Research in Africa: A Study Protocol of the African Neurobiobank for Precision Stroke Medicine ELSI Project.

Int J Qual Methods 2020 Jan-Dec;19. Epub 2020 Jun 23.

Neuroscience and Ageing Research Unit, Institute for Advanced Medical Research and Training, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Nigeria.

The ethical, legal, and social implications (ELSI) of emerging neurobiobanks and data resources are unclear in an African scientific landscape with unique cultural, linguistic, and belief systems. The overarching goal of the African Neurobiobank for Precision Stroke Medicine-ELSI Project is to identify, examine, and develop novel approaches to address ELSI issues of biobanking and stroke genomic research in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). To accomplish the goal we will (1) explore knowledge, attitude, perceptions, barriers, and facilitators influencing ELSI issues related to biobanking and stroke genomic research; (2) use information obtained to craft a community intervention program focused on ELSI issues; and (3) build capacity and careers related to genomics and biobanking for effective client/community engagement while enhancing regulatory, governance, and implementation competences in biobanking science in SSA. A community-based participatory research and mixed-methodological approach, focused on various levels of the social ecological model, will be used to identify and examine relevant ELSI issues. Contextual intervention tools, platforms, and practices will be developed to enhance community understanding and participation in stroke biobanking and genomics research activities while facilitating enduring trust, and equitable and fair utilization of biobanking resources for genetic and trans-omics research. A concurrent capacity building program related to genetic counseling and biobanking will be implemented for early career researchers. The huge potential for neurobiobanking and genomics research in Africa to advance precision medicine applicable to stroke and other neurological disorders requires addressing ELSI challenges while building sustainable research, career, and regulatory capacities in trans-omics and biobanking science.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1609406920923194DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8284747PMC
June 2020

Robustness of zero-augmented models over generalized linear models in analysing fertility data in Nigeria.

BMC Res Notes 2019 Dec 18;12(1):815. Epub 2019 Dec 18.

Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Faculty of Public Health, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria.

Objective: Fertility is a count data usually rightly skewed and exhibiting large number of zeros than the distributional assumption of the generalized linear models (GLMs). This study examined the robustness of zero-augmented models over GLMs to fit fertility data across regions in Nigeria. The 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey data were used. The fertility models fitted included: Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson, zero-inflated negative binomial, hurdle Poisson and hurdle negative binomial. Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) were used to identify the model with best fit (α = 0.05).

Results: The percentage of zero count in the fertility responses were 21.3, 23.9, 31.1, 30.7, 37.6 and 42.4 in North West, North East, North Central, South West, South South and South East regions respectively. In all the six regions in Nigeria, the zero-augmented models were better than the generalized linear models except for North Central. Extensively, the zero-augmented negative binomial based models were of better fit than their Poisson based counterparts; or in rare cases maybe indistinguishable. However, specific family of zero-augmented model is recommended for each region in Nigeria.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13104-019-4852-5DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6921497PMC
December 2019

Randomized Trial of an Intervention to Improve Blood Pressure Control in Stroke Survivors.

Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes 2019 12 6;12(12):e005904. Epub 2019 Dec 6.

Department of Neurology, University of California, San Francisco (B.O.).

Background: We conducted the first-of-its kind randomized stroke trial in Africa to test whether a THRIVES (Tailored Hospital-based Risk reduction to Impede Vascular Events after Stroke) intervention improved blood pressure (BP) control among patients with stroke.

Methods And Results: Intervention comprised a patient global risk factor control report card, personalized phone text-messaging, and educational video. Four hundred patients recruited from 4 distinct medical facilities in Nigeria, aged ≥18 years with stroke-onset within one-year, were randomized to THRIVES intervention and control group. The control group also received text messages, and both groups received modest financial incentives. The primary outcome was mean change in systolic BP (SBP) at 12 months. There were 36.5% females, 72.3% with ischemic stroke; mean age was 57.2±11.7 years; 93.5% had hypertension and mean SBP was 138.33 (23.64) mm Hg. At 12 months, there was no significant difference in SBP reduction from baseline in the THRIVES versus control group (2.32 versus 2.01 mm Hg, =0.82). In an exploratory analysis of subjects with baseline BP >140/90 mm Hg (n=168), THRIVES showed a significant mean SBP (diastolic BP) decrease of 11.7 (7.0) mm Hg while control group showed a significant mean SBP (diastolic BP) decrease of 11.2 (7.9) mm Hg at 12 months.

Conclusions: THRIVES intervention did not significantly reduce SBP compared with controls. However, there was similar significant decrease in mean BP in both treatment arms in the subgroup with baseline hypertension. As text-messaging and a modest financial incentive were the common elements between both treatment arms, further research is required to establish whether these measures alone can improve BP control among stroke survivors.

Clinical Trial Registration: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01900756.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1161/CIRCOUTCOMES.119.005904DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7139215PMC
December 2019

Uptake of intermittent preventive treatment for malaria in pregnancy among women in selected communities of Ebonyi State, Nigeria.

BMC Pregnancy Childbirth 2019 Dec 2;19(1):457. Epub 2019 Dec 2.

Nigeria Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Programme, Abuja, Nigeria.

Background: Malaria in pregnancy has adverse effects on maternal and child health. Intermittent preventive treatment (IPTp) with three doses of Sulfadoxine/Pyrimethamine is an effective preventive measure for malaria in pregnancy. However, 24.0% of women use this prophylactic regimen in Ebonyi State. Previous studies have focused on the level of uptake with less attention given to factors influencing uptake. Therefore, we examined the predictors of IPTp uptake in the last pregnancy among women in Ebonyi State, Nigeria.

Methods: This was a community-based cross-sectional study among 340 women of reproductive age selected using multistage sampling technique. A semi-structured interviewer administered questionnaire was used to collect data on socio-demographic characteristics of respondents, IPTp uptake and reasons for not taking IPTp. Adherence was judged adequate if three or more doses of IPTp were taken, otherwise inadequate. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Chi- square test and logistic regression model at 5% level of significance.

Results: Mean age of respondents was 28.8 ± 5.2 years, 96.5% were married, 19.4% had tertiary education, and 11.2% were from polygamous family. Uptake of IPTp was 74.2%. The level of IPTp uptake was 12.5 and 41.0% among women with no formal and tertiary education respectively. A similar pattern of IPTp uptake was observed among women from monogamous (38.0%) and polygamous (39.5%) families. Women education, husband education and family type were associated with uptake of IPTp, however only husband education remained a predictor of uptake. Women whose husband had secondary education (aOR = 4.1, 95%CI: 1.66-10.06) and tertiary education (aOR = 4.8, 95%CI: 1.76-12.90) were more likely to have IPTp uptake than those whose husbands had below secondary education.

Conclusion: Adequate IPTp uptake among women in their last pregnancy was below WHO recommendation. Intervention aimed at improving couple's education could facilitate increase in IPTp uptake in Ebonyi State.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12884-019-2629-4DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6888909PMC
December 2019

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017.

Nature 2019 10 16;574(7778):353-358. Epub 2019 Oct 16.

School of Health Sciences, Madda Walabu University, Bale Goba, Ethiopia.

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1545-0DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6800389PMC
October 2019

Does Female Autonomy Affect Contraceptive Use among Women in Northern Nigeria?

Afr J Reprod Health 2019 Jun;23(2):92-100

Demography and Population Studies Program, School of Public Health and Social Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.

Literature identified female empowerment as a predictor of positive health behaviour. However, in the context of conservative and traditional society, this is yet to be explored. This paper explores the role of female autonomy in contraceptive use among currently married women in northern Nigeria. Nationally representative Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS, 2013) data for 18,534 currently married women in northern Nigeria was analysed. Complimentary log-logistic regression (cloglog) was used to analyse the data. Current use of modern contraceptive was 6.6% among currently married women in northern Nigeria. Results show that female autonomy was significantly associated with modern contraceptive use. Respondents' education, wealth status and desire for no more children were associated with higher contraceptive use. Despite the conservative and religious context of northern Nigeria, female autonomy significantly predicts modern contraceptive use. Thus, empowering women in northern Nigeria, especially by education, will enable them to participate in healthy contraceptive decision making.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.29063/ajrh2019/v23i2.9DOI Listing
June 2019

The effect of child death on birth spacing in Nigeria.

J Biosoc Sci 2020 05 11;52(3):330-337. Epub 2019 Jul 11.

Demography and Population Studies Programme, Schools of Social Sciences and Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.

Studies have focused on the effect of short birth spacing on childhood mortality, yet very little attention has been paid to the possibility of an inverse relationship such that child mortality might also positively or negatively affect birth spacing. In Nigeria, where both fertility and child mortality are high, this inverse relationship is a possible reason for the country's high fertility. The objective of this study was to examine the effect of child death on time to birth of the next child. Data were drawn from the 2013 Nigerian Demographic Health Survey. The study sample comprised 188,986 live births born to women aged 15-49 years within the five years preceding the survey. A multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression model was fitted to the data, and hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals calculated. More than half of the mothers (68%) already had a next birth by 36 months after the death of the index child. Controlling for other covariates, the Cox regression model showed that the likelihood of next birth was higher when the index child had died compared with when the index child survived (HR: 2.21; CI: 2.03-2.41). Sub-group analysis by geo-political regions in Nigeria showed that in all regions there was a higher likelihood of having a next birth following the death of a preceding child. Death of the index child was found to be a major factor that shortens the length of birth intervals in Nigeria. It is therefore important that the Government of Nigeria intensifies efforts aimed at reducing infant mortality and encouraging adequate birth spacing.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0021932019000464DOI Listing
May 2020

Do Community Characteristics Influence Unintended Pregnancies in Kenya?

Malawi Med J 2019 03;31(1):56-64

Department of Demography and Social Statistics, Obafemi Awolowo University, Nigeria.

Background: Most existing studies on unintended pregnancies tend to examine the influence of individual socio-demographic and health characteristics without sufficient attention to community characteristics. This study examines community characteristics influencing unintended pregnancies in Kenya.

Methods: Data were extracted from the 2014 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS). The outcome variable was unintended pregnancy. The explanatory variables were selected individual and community level variables. The Multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression was applied.

Results: Findings show 41.9% prevalence of unintended pregnancies. Community characteristics such as community education, community timing for initiation of childbearing, community fertility norms, and community media exposure significantly influence the likelihood of unintended pregnancies. The Intra-Cluster Correlation (ICC) provided evidence that community characteristics had effects on unintended pregnancies.

Conclusion: There is evidence that community characteristics influence the prevalence of unintended pregnancies in Kenya. Community sensitisation and mobilisation should be central to all efforts aiming to reduce prevalence of unintended pregnancies.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/mmj.v31i1.10DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6526337PMC
March 2019

Echocardiographic Abnormalities and Determinants of 1-Month Outcome of Stroke Among West Africans in the SIREN Study.

J Am Heart Assoc 2019 06 30;8(11):e010814. Epub 2019 May 30.

1 Center for Genomic and Precision Medicine University of Ibadan Ibadan Nigeria.

Background Little is known about the relationship between echocardiographic abnormalities and outcome among patients with acute stroke. We investigated the pattern and association of baseline echocardiographic variables with 1-month disability and mortality among patients with stroke in the SIREN (Stroke Investigative Research and Education Network) study. Methods and Results We enrolled and followed up consecutive 1020 adult patients with acute stroke with baseline transthoracic echocardiography from west Africa. To explore the relationship between echocardiographic variables and 1-month disability (using modified Rankin scale >3) and fatality, regression models were fitted. Relative risks were computed with 95% CIs. The participants comprised 60% men with a mean age of 59.2±14.6 years. Ischemic stroke was associated with smaller aortic root diameter (30.2 versus 32.5, P=0.018) and septal (16.8 versus 19.1, P<0.001) and posterior wall thickness at systole (18.9 versus 21.5, P=0.004). Over 90% of patients with stroke had abnormal left ventricular (LV) geometry with eccentric hypertrophy predominating (56.1%). Of 13 candidate variables investigated, only baseline abnormal LV geometry (concentric hypertrophy) was weakly associated with 1-month disability (unadjusted relative risk, 1.80; 95% CI , 0.97-5.73). Severe LV systolic dysfunction was significantly associated with increased 1-month mortality (unadjusted relative risk, 3.05; 95% CI , 1.36-6.83). Conclusions Nine of 10 patients with acute stroke had abnormal LV geometry and a third had systolic dysfunction. Severe LV systolic dysfunction was significantly associated with 1 month mortality. Larger studies are required to establish the independent effect and unravel predictive accuracy of this association.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1161/JAHA.118.010814DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6585359PMC
June 2019

Household relationships and healthcare seeking behaviour for common childhood illnesses in sub-Saharan Africa: a cross-national mixed effects analysis.

BMC Health Serv Res 2019 May 14;19(1):308. Epub 2019 May 14.

Demography and Population Studies Programme, Schools of Public Health and Social Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.

Background: Intra-household dynamics play crucial roles in utilisation of healthcare services for children. We investigated the influence of household relationships on healthcare seeking behaviour for common childhood illnesses in four sub-Sahara African regions.

Methods: Data on 247,061 under-five children were extracted from recent Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 2012 and 2016 in 25 countries. Data were combined and analysed per sub-region. Dependent variables (DVs) were uptake of health facility care for diarrhea and Acute Respiratory Tract Infection (ARI) symptoms. The main independent variable (IV) was household relationship which was represented by maternal marital profile (marital status, family type and number of marriages) and maternal relationship to household head. Mixed effects logit models were fitted to assess independent relationship between the IVs and DVs with adjustment for relevant demographic and socio-economic characteristics at 5% significance level.

Results: The percentage of children who received care for diarrhea and ARI symptoms from health facilities across sub-regions was: Western Africa (WA) 42.4, 44.1%; Central Africa (CA) 32.6, 33.9%; Eastern Africa (EA) 41.5, 48.7% and Southern Africa (SA) 58.9, 62.7%. Maternal marital profile was not associated with healthcare seeking behaviour for diarrhea and ARI symptoms in any of the sub-regions. Children whose mothers were daughter/daughter-in-law to household head were significantly less likely to be taken to health facility for diarrhea treatment in Eastern Africa (AOR = 0.81, CI: 0.51-0.95). Having a mother who is the head of household was significantly associated with higher odds of facility care for ARI symptoms for children from Western (AOR = 1.20, CI: 1.02-1.43) and Southern Africa (AOR = 1.49, CI: 1.20-1.85).

Conclusion: The type of relationship between mother of under-fives and head of households affect health seeking behaviour for treatment of diarrhea and ARI symptoms in Eastern, Western and Southern Africa. Countries in these regions need to adapt best practices for promoting healthcare utilisation for children such that household relationship does not constitute barriers.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12913-019-4142-xDOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6518738PMC
May 2019

Gender differential in inclination to donate brain for research among Nigerians: the IBADAN Brain Bank Project.

Cell Tissue Bank 2019 Jun 26;20(2):297-306. Epub 2019 Apr 26.

Department of Health Promotion and Education, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria.

Background: Laboratory-based studies of neurological disease patterns and mechanisms are sparse in sub-Saharan Africa. However, availability of human brain tissue resource depends on willingness towards brain donation. This study evaluated the level of willingness among outpatient clinic attendees in a Nigerian teaching hospital.

Methods: Under the auspices of the IBADAN Brain Bank Project, a 43-item semi-structured interviewer-administered questionnaire was designed to evaluate knowledge, attitude, and beliefs of individuals attending Neurology, Psychiatry and Geriatrics Outpatient clinics regarding willingness to donate brain for research. Association between participants characteristics and willingness towards brain donation was investigated using logistic regression models. Analysis was conducted using Stata SE version 12.0.

Results: A total of 412 participants were interviewed. Their mean age was 46.3 (16.1) years. 229 (55.6%) were females and 92.5% had at least 6 years of formal education. Overall, 109 (26.7%) were willing to donate brains for research. In analyses adjusting for educational status, religion, ethnicity, marital status and family setting, male sex showed independent association with willingness towards brain donation OR (95% CI) 1.7 (1.08-2.69), p = 0.023. Participants suggested public engagement and education through mass media (including social media) and involvement of religious and community leaders as important interventions to improve awareness and willingness towards brain donation.

Conclusion: The survey revealed low willingness among outpatient clinic attendees to donate brain for research, although men were more inclined to donate. It is imperative to institute public engagement and educational interventions in order to improve consent for brain donation for research.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10561-019-09769-4DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6556418PMC
June 2019
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