Publications by authors named "Jeremy Millar"

145 Publications

Increasing use of post-mastectomy hypofractionated radiation therapy for breast cancer in Victoria.

J Med Imaging Radiat Oncol 2021 Nov 22. Epub 2021 Nov 22.

Department of Radiation Oncology, Olivia Newton-John Cancer Wellness and Research Centre, Austin Health, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.

Introduction: The aim of this study was to evaluate the use of post-mastectomy hypofractionationed radiation therapy (HFRT) for breast cancer in Victoria, Australia.

Methods: This is a population-based cohort of women with breast cancer who received post-mastectomy RT to the chest wall with or without nodal irradiation between 2012 and 2017. HFRT was defined as <25 fractions of RT. Data were captured in the Victorian Radiotherapy Minimum Dataset (VRMDS). The changing pattern of HFRT use was evaluated using the Cochran-Armitage test. Patient-, treatment- and institutional-related factors associated with HFRT use were evaluated using multivariable logistic regression.

Results: Two thousand and twenty-one women were included in this study, of which 238 (12%) received HFRT. This increased from 8% in 2012 to 18% in 2017 (P-trend < 0.001). Older women were more likely to have HFRT (26% in women above 70 years vs 6% in women under 50 years; P < 0.001). Women who did not have nodal irradiation were more likely to have HFRT than those who did (18% vs 9% respectively; P < 0.001). In multivariate analyses, the progressive increase in HFRT use over time remained statistically significant - women treated in 2017 were four times more likely to receive HFRT than those treated in 2012 (95% CI = 2.1-7.7; P < 0.001). Other factors independently associated with increased likelihood of HFRT use included increasing age at RT, and lack of nodal irradiation.

Conclusion: In this first Australian study evaluating the use of post-mastectomy HFRT, we observed increasing HFRT use in Victoria over time. We anticipate this rising trend will continue in the coming years.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1754-9485.13354DOI Listing
November 2021

Evaluation of Hypofractionated Radiation Therapy Use and Patient-Reported Outcomes in Men With Nonmetastatic Prostate Cancer in Australia and New Zealand.

JAMA Netw Open 2021 Nov 1;4(11):e2129647. Epub 2021 Nov 1.

Monash University School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.

Importance: Randomized clinical trials in prostate cancer have reported noninferior outcomes for hypofractionated radiation therapy (HRT) compared with conventional RT (CRT); however, uptake of HRT across jurisdictions is variable.

Objective: To evaluate the use of HRT vs CRT in men with nonmetastatic prostate cancer and compare patient-reported outcomes (PROs) at a population level.

Design, Setting, And Participants: Registry-based cohort study from the Australian and New Zealand Prostate Cancer Outcomes Registry (PCOR-ANZ). Participants were men with nonmetastatic prostate cancer treated with primary RT (excluding brachytherapy) from January 2016 to December 2019. Data were analyzed in March 2021.

Exposures: HRT defined as 2.5 to 3.3 Gy and CRT defined as 1.7 to 2.3 Gy per fraction.

Main Outcomes And Measures: Temporal trends and institutional, clinicopathological, and sociodemographic factors associated with use of HRT were analyzed. PROs were assessed 12 months following RT using the Expanded Prostate Cancer Index Composite (EPIC)-26 Short Form questionnaire. Differences in PROs were analyzed by adjusting for age and National Comprehensive Cancer Network risk category.

Results: Of 8305 men identified as receiving primary RT, 6368 met the inclusion criteria for CRT (n = 4482) and HRT (n = 1886). The median age was 73.1 years (IQR, 68.2-77.3 years), 2.6% (168) had low risk, 45.7% (2911) had intermediate risk, 44.5% (2836) had high-/very high-risk, and 7.1% (453) had regional nodal disease. Use of HRT increased from 2.1% (9 of 435) in the first half of 2016 to 52.7% (539 of 1023) in the second half of 2019, with lower uptake in the high-/very high-risk (1.9% [4 of 215] to 42.4% [181 of 427]) compared with the intermediate-risk group (2.2% [4 of 185] to 67.6% [325 of 481]) (odds ratio, 0.26; 95% CI, 0.15-0.45). Substantial variability in the use of HRT for intermediate-risk disease remained at the institutional level (median 53.3%; range, 0%-100%) and clinician level (median 57.9%; range, 0%-100%) in the last 2 years of the study period. There were no clinically significant differences across EPIC-26 urinary and bowel functional domains or bother scores.

Conclusions And Relevance: In this cohort study, use of HRT for prostate cancer increased substantially from 2016. This population-level data demonstrated clinically equivalent PROs and supports the continued implementation of HRT into routine practice. The wide variation in practice observed at the jurisdictional, institutional, and clinician level provides stakeholders with information that may be useful in targeting implementation strategies and benchmarking services.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.29647DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8561328PMC
November 2021

Self-reported lack of energy or feeling depressed 12 months after treatment in men diagnosed with prostate cancer within a population-based registry.

Psychooncology 2021 Oct 8. Epub 2021 Oct 8.

Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.

Objective: Feeling depressed and lethargic are common side effects of prostate cancer (PCa) and its treatments. We examined the incidence and severity of feeling depressed and lack of energy in patients in a population based PCa registry.

Methods: We included men diagnosed with PCa between 2015 and 2019 in Victoria, Australia, and enrolled in the Prostate Cancer Outcomes Registry. The primary outcome measures were responses to two questions on the Expanded Prostate Cancer Index Composite (EPIC-26) patient reported instrument: problems with feeling depressed and problems with lack of energy 12 months following treatment. We evaluated associations between these and age, cancer risk category, treatment type, and urinary, bowel, and sexual function.

Results: Both outcome questions were answered by 9712 out of 12,628 (77%) men. 981 patients (10%) reported at least moderate problems with feeling depressed; 1563 (16%) had at least moderate problems with lack of energy and 586 (6.0%) with both. Younger men reported feeling depressed more frequently than older men. Lack of energy was more common for treatments that included androgen deprivation therapy than not (moderate/big problems: 31% vs. 13%), irrespective of disease risk category. Both outcomes were associated with poorer urinary, bowel, and sexual functional domain scores.

Conclusions: Self-reported depressive feelings and lack of energy were frequent in this population-based registry. Problems with feeling depressed were more common in younger men and lack of energy more common in men having hormonal treatment. Clinicians should be aware of the incidence of these symptoms in these at-risk groups and be able to screen for them.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/pon.5833DOI Listing
October 2021

Changing pattern of radiation therapy for bone metastases in an Australian population-based cohort of men with prostate cancer.

Clin Genitourin Cancer 2021 Jul 10. Epub 2021 Jul 10.

Alfred Health Radiation Oncology Services, Australia; Central Clinical School, Monash University, Australia.

Introduction: To evaluate the pattern of use of single-fraction conformal radiation therapy (SF-RT) and advanced radiation therapy techniques (ART), including stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT), for management of bone metastases (BM) in a population-based cohort of Australian men with prostate cancer (PCa) PATIENT AND METHODS: We reviewed men with metastatic PCa who received RT for BM between 2012 and 2017 as captured in the statewide Victorian Radiotherapy Minimum Data Set (VRMDS). The primary outcomes were: proportion of RT courses using SF-RT and ART. The Cochrane-Armitage test for trend was used to evaluate the changing pattern of SF-RT and ART over time. Multivariate analyses were used to identify factors associated with the primary outcomes RESULTS: Of the 4,324 courses of palliative RT for BM, 767 (17.7%) were SF-RT, and 615 (14.2%) were ART. There was no evidence of change in SF-RT use over time (P-trend=0.13). In multivariate analyses, increasing age at RT, site of BM (rib, shoulder, pelvis, and extremities), patients' area of residence (regional and remote), and treatment in public and metropolitan centres were associated with increased likelihood of SF-RT use. There was marked increase in ART use from 0.2% in 2012 to 24% in 2017 (11% intensity modulated RT, 13% SBRT) (P-trend<0.001). In multivariate analyses, younger age at RT, site of BM (rib and pelvis), higher socioeconomic status, and treatment in private and metropolitan centres were associated with increased likelihood of ART use.

Conclusion: SF-RT continues to be a clear minority of RT schedules employed in management of BM in PCa, and the adoption of SF-RT use should be encouraged in men with limited prognosis. There has been increasing use of ART, especially SBRT, for BM in PCa over time, and we expect this will continue to increase in the era of metastatic-directed treatment for PCa.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.clgc.2021.07.007DOI Listing
July 2021

Establishing a global quality of care benchmark report.

Health Informatics J 2021 Apr-Jun;27(2):14604582211015704

Cancer Council Victoria, Australia.

Background: The Movember funded TrueNTH Global Registry (TNGR) aims to improve care by collecting and analysing a consistent dataset to identify variation in disease management, benchmark care delivery in accordance with best practice guidelines and provide this information to those in a position to enact change. We discuss considerations of designing and implementing a quality of care report for TNGR.

Methods: Eleven working group sessions were held prior to and as reports were being built with representation from clinicians, data managers and investigators contributing to TNGR. The aim of the meetings was to understand current data display approaches, share literature review findings and ideas for innovative approaches. Preferred displays were evaluated with two surveys (survey 1: 5 clinicians and 5 non-clinicians, 83% response rate; survey 2: 17 clinicians and 18 non-clinicians, 93% response rate).

Results: Consensus on dashboard design and three data-display preferences were achieved. The dashboard comprised two performance summary charts; one summarising site's relative quality indicator (QI) performance and another to summarise data quality. Binary outcome QIs were presented as funnel plots. Patient-reported outcome measures of function score and the extent to which men were bothered by their symptoms were presented in bubble plots. Time series graphs were seen as providing important information to supplement funnel and bubble plots. R Markdown was selected as the software program principally because of its excellent analytic and graph display capacity, open source licensing model and the large global community sharing program code enhancements.

Conclusions: International collaboration in creating and maintaining clinical quality registries has allowed benchmarking of process and outcome measures on a large scale. A registry report system was developed with stakeholder engagement to produce dynamic reports that provide user-specific feedback to 132 participating sites across 13 countries.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/14604582211015704DOI Listing
August 2021

Developing clinical indicators for oncology: the inaugural cancer care indicator set for the Australian Council on Healthcare Standards.

Med J Aust 2021 06 30;214(11):528-531. Epub 2021 May 30.

Icon Group, Brisbane, QLD.

Introduction: The Australian Council on Healthcare Standards (ACHS) sponsored an expert-led, consensus-driven, four-stage process, based on a modified Delphi methodology, to determine a set of clinical indicators as quality measures of cancer service provision in Australia. This was done in response to requests from institutional health care providers seeking accreditation, which were additional and complementary to the existing radiation oncology set. The steering group members comprised multidisciplinary key opinion leaders and a consumer representative. Five additional participants constituted the stakeholder group, who deliberated on the final indicator set.

Methods And Recommendations: An initial meeting of the steering group scoped the high level nature of the desired set. In stage 2, 65 candidate indicators were identified by a literature review and a search of international metrics. These were ranked by survey, based on ease of data accessibility and collectability and clinical relevance. The top 27 candidates were debated by the stakeholder group and culled to a final set of 16 indicators. A user manual was created with indicators mapped to clinical codes. The indicator set was ratified by the Clinical Oncology Society of Australia and is now available for use by health care organisations participating in the ACHS Clinical Indicator Program. This inaugural cancer clinical indicator set covers high level assessment of various critical processes in cancer service provision in Australia. Regular reviews and updates will ensure usability.

Changes In Management As A Result Of This Statement: This is the inaugural indicator set for cancer care for use across Australia and internationally under the ACHS Clinical Indicator Program. Multidisciplinary involvement through a modified Delphi process selected indicators representing both generic and specific aspects of care across the cancer journey pathway and will provide a functional tool to compare health care delivery across multiple settings. It is anticipated that this will drive continual improvement in cancer care provision.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.5694/mja2.51087DOI Listing
June 2021

Patterns of care for prostate cancer treatment and improving outcomes - are national registries the answer?

BJU Int 2021 10 11;128 Suppl 1:6-8. Epub 2021 May 11.

Department of Surgery, Alfred Health, Monash University, Melbourne, Vic., Australia.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/bju.15366DOI Listing
October 2021

A patient-centred approach to determine optimal supportive care across the cancer trajectory: a cross-sectional study.

Eur J Cancer Care (Engl) 2021 Sep 21;30(5):e13455. Epub 2021 Apr 21.

Health Behaviour Research Collaborative, School of Medicine and Public Health, University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW, Australia.

Objective: Supportive care is recognised as an integral component of cancer care. To comprehensively improve supportive care and to inform policy, it is essential to examine consumer's views of health services. This study aimed to develop and test a patient-centred approach by measuring consumer perspectives on the importance of aspects of supportive care to determine what patients consider highest quality or 'optimal' care.

Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in oncology outpatient clinics. Eligible patients were invited to complete the optimal care survey on an iPad. The survey consisted of 69 items assessing 14 care domains across five phases of the care trajectory.

Results: A total of 359 participants completed the survey. Items in the 'preparation for treatment' and 'follow-up and end-of-life care' phases were endorsed as very important/essential to optimal care by most participants (79-97% and 80-100%, respectively). Items in the 'preparation for first appointment' (48-84%), 'first appointment' (51-97%) and 'receiving treatment' (32-93%) phases showed greater variation in endorsement.

Conclusion: This study provides a patient-centred tool for quantifying optimal supportive care for people with cancer across the treatment trajectory. This tool could be used by healthcare providers to evaluate existing care quality, develop policies and guide clinical service improvements.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ecc.13455DOI Listing
September 2021

Musculoskeletal Responses to Exercise Plus Nutrition in Men with Prostate Cancer on Androgen Deprivation: A 12-Month RCT.

Med Sci Sports Exerc 2021 10;53(10):2054-2065

Institute for Physical Activity and Nutrition, School of Exercise and Nutrition Sciences, Deakin University, Geelong, AUSTRALIA.

Purpose: Androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) for prostate cancer has multiple adverse effects on musculoskeletal health. This 12-month randomized controlled trial aimed to assess the effects of multicomponent exercise training combined with whey protein, calcium and vitamin D supplementation on bone mineral density (BMD), structure and strength, body composition, muscle strength, and physical function in ADT-treated men.

Methods: Seventy ADT-treated men were randomized to exercise plus supplementation (Ex + Suppl; n = 34) or usual care (control; n = 36). Ex + Suppl involved thrice weekly progressive resistance training plus weight-bearing impact exercise with daily multinutrient supplementation. Primary outcomes were DXA hip and spine areal BMD. Secondary outcomes included the following: tibia and radius pQCT volumetric BMD, bone structure and strength, DXA body composition, pQCT muscle and fat cross-sectional area and muscle density, and muscle strength and physical function.

Results: Sixty men (86%) completed the study. Mean exercise and supplement adherence were 56% and 77%, respectively. There were no effects of the intervention on bone or body composition outcomes. Ex + Suppl improved leg muscle strength (net difference, (95% confidence interval, or CI), 14.5% (-0.2 to 29.2); P = 0.007) and dynamic mobility (four-square-step test time, -9.3% (-17.3 to -1.3), P = 0.014) relative to controls. Per-protocol analysis of adherent participants (≥66% exercise, ≥80% supplement) showed Ex + Suppl preserved femoral neck aBMD (1.9% (0.1 to 3.8), P = 0.026) and improved total body lean mass (1.0 kg (-0.23 to 2.22), P = 0.044) relative to controls.

Conclusions: Exercise training combined with multinutrient supplementation had a limited effect on ameliorating the adverse musculoskeletal consequences of ADT, likely related to the modest intervention adherence.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1249/MSS.0000000000002682DOI Listing
October 2021

Predictors of real-world utilisation of docetaxel combined with androgen deprivation therapy in metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer.

Intern Med J 2021 Mar 12. Epub 2021 Mar 12.

School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.

Background: Docetaxel has emerged as a standard-of-care for metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC). Uptake of docetaxel for mHSPC in Australia has not previously been reported.

Aims: i) To investigate the real-world uptake of docetaxel in mHSPC; and ii) To identify predictors of utilisation of Docetaxel in mHSPC.

Methods: Men diagnosed from June 2014 to December 2018 and enrolled in the Prostate Cancer Outcomes Registry-Victoria (PCOR-Vic) were included. Data collected includes demographics, diagnosis method and institution, staging investigations, and treatments within 12 months of diagnosis. Wilcoxon rank-sum, chi-square and trend tests were used to identify predictors of docetaxel utilisation. All predictors were entered as covariates simultaneously into a multivariable logistic regression model. Statistical significance was set at 0.05 (two-sided).

Results: 1014 men with mHSPC were analysed, 25% of whom received docetaxel with androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). Uptake of docetaxel increased from 20% in 2014 to 33% in 2018. Predictors of higher usage of docetaxel were younger age and treatment in a private hospital, with both remaining significant on multivariable analysis. Notably, the proportion of men under 70 receiving docetaxel increased from 54% in 2014-15 to 64% in 2016-18, while in men aged 70 and over the comparative figures were 15% and 22% respectively.

Conclusions: Although docetaxel was not used in a majority of cases, there was a clear increase in docetaxel uptake especially in younger men following publication of the CHAARTED and STAMPEDE trials. Identifying barriers to real-world implementation of pivotal clinical trial data is critical to improving outcomes in mHSPC. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/imj.15288DOI Listing
March 2021

Patterns of primary staging for newly diagnosed prostate cancer in the era of prostate specific membrane antigen positron emission tomography: A population-based analysis.

J Med Imaging Radiat Oncol 2021 Oct 5;65(6):649-654. Epub 2021 Mar 5.

Department of Surgery, Austin Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.

Introduction: There has been a growing body of evidence highlighting the improved sensitivity and specificity for prostate specific membrane antigen (PSMA) positron emission tomography (PET) in advanced prostate cancer imaging. We aimed to assess prostate cancer staging practice patterns in Australia using population-based data.

Subject And Methods: We extracted data on men diagnosed with prostate cancer between October 2016 and December 2018 from the Prostate Cancer Outcomes Registry-Victoria (PCOR-Vic). We evaluated trends and comparisons between patients receiving PET/CT (with or without conventional imaging (CImg)), and CImg alone, and analysed imaging modality as predictor of clinical regional node positive disease (cN1 vs cN0/X), metastatic disease (cM1 vs cM0/X), and treatment received.

Results: In total, 6139 patients in the registry had either a staging PET scan (n = 889, 14%), CImg without PET scan (n = 2464, 40%), or no recorded PET or CImg (n = 2786, 45%). The proportion of allimaged patients who received staging PET increased from 19% to 36% from the first to last three-month period, and in the high-risk category the increase was 23-43%. After adjustment for grade group, PET vs CImg-only patients were observed to have a higher proportion of cN1 disease (OR = 2.46, 95% CI: 1.90-3.20) but not cM1 disease (OR = 1.10, 95% CI: 0.84-1.44).

Conclusions: Our registry data highlights the rapid uptake of PET imaging, particularly in high-risk disease. Based on this data, we highlight the increased diagnosis of nodal disease, thus potentially optimizing patient selection prior to definitive treatment for prostate cancer.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1754-9485.13162DOI Listing
October 2021

Palliative radiotherapy for bone metastases at the end of life in Victoria.

Med J Aust 2021 03 20;214(5):236-237.e1. Epub 2021 Feb 20.

Alfred Health, Melbourne, VIC.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.5694/mja2.50954DOI Listing
March 2021

Choosing Wisely in radiation therapy for breast cancer: Time lag in adoption of hypofractionated radiation therapy in Victoria.

J Med Imaging Radiat Oncol 2021 Apr 16;65(2):224-232. Epub 2021 Feb 16.

Department of Radiation Oncology, Olivia Newton-John Cancer Wellness and Research Centre, Austin Health, Heidelberg, Victoria, Australia.

Introduction: To evaluate the adoption of hypofractionated radiotherapy (HFRT) for breast cancer (BC) in Victoria, Australia.

Methods: This is a population-based cohort of women with BC who had breast RT as captured in the Victorian Radiotherapy Minimum Data Set between 2012 and 2017. We defined HFRT as < 25 fractions of RT. The pattern of HFRT use over time was evaluated with the Cochrane-Armitage test for trend. Factors associated with HFRT were identified using multivariable logistic regression.

Results: 12,717 women were included in the study. Overall, 6,653 (52%) patients had HFRT. HFRT use increased from 35% in 2012 to 66% in 2017 (P-trend < 0.001). Older women were more likely to have HFRT (74% for women aged ≥ 70 years vs. 27% for women aged < 50 years; P < 0.001). Women who had nodal irradiation were less likely to have HFRT compared with those who did not (13% vs. 57%; P < 0.001). HFRT use was more common in public than private institutions (57% vs. 46%, P < 0.001), and in metropolitan than regional centres (54% vs. 46%, P < 0.001). In multivariable analyses, the progressive increase in HFRT use over time was independent of other covariates - women treated in 2017 were 7.3 times (95% CI = 6.3-8.6, P < 0.001) more likely to be treated with HFRT than in 2012. Age at RT, nodal irradiation, area of residence and institutional type and locations were all independently associated with HFRT use.

Conclusion: This large Australian contemporary population-based study demonstrates increasing use of HFRT for BC. However, large sociodemographic and institutional provider-related variations in practice still exist.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1754-9485.13155DOI Listing
April 2021

Geospatial and temporal variation of prostate cancer incidence.

Public Health 2021 Jan 13;190:7-15. Epub 2020 Dec 13.

Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. Electronic address:

Objectives: The objective of this study was to evaluate geographical and temporal variations in prostate cancer incidence in Victoria, Australia.

Study Design & Methods: This study analysed 105,349 cases of incident prostate cancer between 1982 and 2016 from the population-based Victorian Cancer Registry. We performed Poisson regression analyses to identify an association between an annual number of prostate cancer counts, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) tests and the elderly male population (≥65) after adjusting for population at risk and years. We also applied Bayesian spatial-temporal models to determine any association with prostate cancer incidence and area-level factors.

Results: The overall trend of the age-standardized prostate cancer incidence was increasing. The highest age-specific incidence was observed among people aged 65-74 years in the pre- and post-PSA periods. Every increase in 1000 PSA tests per 100,000 population, prostate cancer incidence increased by 17% (relative risk [RR] = 1.17, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.13-1.22). A 1% increase in the proportion of the male population (≥65) correlated with a 7% increase in prostate cancer cases (RR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.06-1.10). Compared with early PSA periods, decreasing trends of low-grade cases and growing trends of high- and intermediate-grade cases were observed after a decline in PSA test usage in late PSA periods. Men living in the most socioeconomically advantaged postal areas had a decreased risk of prostate cancer (RR = 0.914, 95% CI = 0.858-0.976).

Conclusions: Age-specific risk of developing biological prostate cancer, temporal changes in PSA testing and an increasingly elderly population contributed to an increasing trend of prostate cancer incidence. When incidence trends were investigated at a more granular geographic level, socioeconomically advantaged status was associated with decreased prostate cancer risk.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2020.10.032DOI Listing
January 2021

Adjuvant radiotherapy versus early salvage radiotherapy following radical prostatectomy (TROG 08.03/ANZUP RAVES): a randomised, controlled, phase 3, non-inferiority trial.

Lancet Oncol 2020 10;21(10):1331-1340

Auckland Hospital, Auckland, New Zealand.

Background: Adjuvant radiotherapy has been shown to halve the risk of biochemical progression for patients with high-risk disease after radical prostatectomy. Early salvage radiotherapy could result in similar biochemical control with lower treatment toxicity. We aimed to compare biochemical progression between patients given adjuvant radiotherapy and those given salvage radiotherapy.

Methods: We did a phase 3, randomised, controlled, non-inferiority trial across 32 oncology centres in Australia and New Zealand. Eligible patients were aged at least 18 years and had undergone a radical prostatectomy for adenocarcinoma of the prostate with pathological staging showing high-risk features defined as positive surgical margins, extraprostatic extension, or seminal vesicle invasion; had an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0-1, and had a postoperative prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration of 0·10 ng/mL or less. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) using a minimisation technique via an internet-based, independently generated allocation to either adjuvant radiotherapy within 6 months of radical prostatectomy or early salvage radiotherapy triggered by a PSA of 0·20 ng/mL or more. Allocation sequence was concealed from investigators and patients, but treatment assignment for individual randomisations was not masked. Patients were stratified by radiotherapy centre, preoperative PSA, Gleason score, surgical margin status, and seminal vesicle invasion status. Radiotherapy in both groups was 64 Gy in 32 fractions to the prostate bed without androgen deprivation therapy with real-time review of plan quality on all cases before treatment. The primary endpoint was freedom from biochemical progression. Salvage radiotherapy would be deemed non-inferior to adjuvant radiotherapy if freedom from biochemical progression at 5 years was within 10% of that for adjuvant radiotherapy with a hazard ratio (HR) for salvage radiotherapy versus adjuvant radiotherapy of 1·48. The primary analysis was done on an intention-to-treat basis. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00860652.

Findings: Between March 27, 2009, and Dec 31, 2015, 333 patients were randomly assigned (166 to adjuvant radiotherapy; 167 to salvage radiotherapy). Median follow-up was 6·1 years (IQR 4·3-7·5). An independent data monitoring committee recommended premature closure of enrolment because of unexpectedly low event rates. 84 (50%) patients in the salvage radiotherapy group had radiotherapy triggered by a PSA of 0·20 ng/mL or more. 5-year freedom from biochemical progression was 86% (95% CI 81-92) in the adjuvant radiotherapy group versus 87% (82-93) in the salvage radiotherapy group (stratified HR 1·12, 95% CI 0·65-1·90; p=0·15). The grade 2 or worse genitourinary toxicity rate was lower in the salvage radiotherapy group (90 [54%] of 167) than in the adjuvant radiotherapy group (116 [70%] of 166). The grade 2 or worse gastrointestinal toxicity rate was similar between the salvage radiotherapy group (16 [10%]) and the adjuvant radiotherapy group (24 [14%]).

Interpretation: Salvage radiotherapy did not meet trial specified criteria for non-inferiority. However, these data support the use of salvage radiotherapy as it results in similar biochemical control to adjuvant radiotherapy, spares around half of men from pelvic radiation, and is associated with significantly lower genitourinary toxicity.

Funding: New Zealand Health Research Council, Australian National Health Medical Research Council, Cancer Council Victoria, Cancer Council NSW, Auckland Hospital Charitable Trust, Trans-Tasman Radiation Oncology Group Seed Funding, Cancer Research Trust New Zealand, Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Radiologists, Cancer Institute NSW, Prostate Cancer Foundation Australia, and Cancer Australia.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1470-2045(20)30456-3DOI Listing
October 2020

Effect of Aspirin on Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Older Adults.

J Natl Cancer Inst 2021 03;113(3):258-265

Clinical and Translational Epidemiology Unit, Department of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.

Background: ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly, a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of daily low-dose aspirin (100 mg) in older adults, showed an increase in all-cause mortality, primarily due to cancer. In contrast, prior randomized controlled trials, mainly involving younger individuals, demonstrated a delayed cancer benefit with aspirin. We now report a detailed analysis of cancer incidence and mortality.

Methods: 19 114 Australian and US community-dwelling participants aged 70 years and older (US minorities 65 years and older) without cardiovascular disease, dementia, or physical disability were randomly assigned and followed for a median of 4.7 years. Fatal and nonfatal cancer events, a prespecified secondary endpoint, were adjudicated based on clinical records.

Results: 981 cancer events occurred in the aspirin and 952 in the placebo groups. There was no statistically significant difference between groups for all incident cancers (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.95 to 1.14), hematological cancer (HR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.73 to 1.30), or all solid cancers (HR = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.95 to 1.15), including by specific tumor type. However, aspirin was associated with an increased risk of incident cancer that had metastasized (HR = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.00 to 1.43) or was stage 4 at diagnosis (HR = 1.22, 95% CI = 1.02 to 1.45), and with higher risk of death for cancers that presented at stages 3 (HR = 2.11, 95% CI = 1.03 to 4.33) or 4 (HR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.04 to 1.64).

Conclusions: In older adults, aspirin treatment had an adverse effect on later stages of cancer evolution. These findings suggest that in older persons, aspirin may accelerate the progression of cancer and, thus, suggest caution with its use in this age group.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jnci/djaa114DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7936068PMC
March 2021

The Movember Prostate Cancer Landscape Analysis: an assessment of unmet research needs.

Nat Rev Urol 2020 Sep 22;17(9):499-512. Epub 2020 Jul 22.

Movember, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.

Prostate cancer is a heterogeneous cancer with widely varying levels of morbidity and mortality. Approaches to prostate cancer screening, diagnosis, surveillance, treatment and management differ around the world. To identify the highest priority research needs across the prostate cancer biomedical research domain, Movember conducted a landscape analysis with the aim of maximizing the effect of future research investment through global collaborative efforts and partnerships. A global Landscape Analysis Committee (LAC) was established to act as an independent group of experts across urology, medical oncology, radiation oncology, radiology, pathology, translational research, health economics and patient advocacy. Men with prostate cancer and thought leaders from a variety of disciplines provided a range of key insights through a range of interviews. Insights were prioritized against predetermined criteria to understand the areas of greatest unmet need. From these efforts, 17 research needs in prostate cancer were agreed on and prioritized, and 3 received the maximum prioritization score by the LAC: first, to establish more sensitive and specific tests to improve disease screening and diagnosis; second, to develop indicators to better stratify low-risk prostate cancer for determining which men should go on active surveillance; and third, to integrate companion diagnostics into randomized clinical trials to enable prediction of treatment response. On the basis of the findings from the landscape analysis, Movember will now have an increased focus on addressing the specific research needs that have been identified, with particular investment in research efforts that reduce disease progression and lead to improved therapies for advanced prostate cancer.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41585-020-0349-1DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7462750PMC
September 2020

External Validation of a Predictive Model of Urethral Strictures for Prostate Patients Treated With HDR Brachytherapy Boost.

Front Oncol 2020 11;10:910. Epub 2020 Jun 11.

Alfred Health Radiation Oncology, Alfred Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.

For prostate cancer treatment, comparable or superior biochemical control was reported when using External-Beam-Radiotherapy (EBRT) with High-Dose-Rate-Brachytherapy (HDRB)-boost, compared to dose-escalation with EBRT alone. The conformal doses produced by HDRB could allow further beneficial prostate dose-escalation, but increase in dose is limited by normal tissue toxicity. Previous works showed correlation between urethral dose and incidence of urinary toxicity, but there is a lack of established guidelines on the dose constraints to this organ. This work aimed at fitting a Normal-Tissue-Complication-Probability model to urethral stricture data collected at one institution and validating it with an external cohort, looking at neo-adjuvant androgen deprivation as dose-modifying factor. Clinical and dosimetric data of 258 patients, with a toxicity rate of 12.8%, treated at a single institution with a variety of prescription doses, were collected to fit the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) model using the maximum likelihood method. Due to the different fractionations, doses were converted into 2 Gy-equivalent doses (α/β = 5 Gy), and urethral stricture was used as an end-point. For validation, an external cohort of 187 patients treated as part of the TROG (Trans Tasman Radiation Oncology Group) 03.04 RADAR trial with a toxicity rate of 8.7%, was used. The goodness of fit was assessed using calibration plots. The effect of neo-adjuvant androgen deprivation (AD) was analyzed separating patients who had received it prior to treatment from those who did not receive it. The obtained LKB parameters were TD50 = 116.7 Gy and = 0.23; was fixed to 0.3, based on numerical optimization of the likelihood. The calibration plot showed a good agreement between the observed toxicity and the probability predicted by the model, confirmed by bootstrapping. For the external validation, the calibration plot showed that the observed toxicity obtained with the RADAR patients was well-represented by the fitted LKB model parameters. When patients were stratified by the use of AD TD50 decreased when AD was not present. Lyman-Kutcher-Burman model parameters were fitted to the risk of urethral stricture and externally validated with an independent cohort, to provide guidance on urethral tolerance doses for patients treated with a HDRB boost. For patients that did not receive AD, model fitting provided a lower TD50 suggesting a protective effect on urethra toxicity.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fonc.2020.00910DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7300245PMC
June 2020

A biochemical definition of cure after brachytherapy for prostate cancer.

Radiother Oncol 2020 08 27;149:64-69. Epub 2020 Apr 27.

MD Anderson Cancer Center, University of Texas, Houston, United States. Electronic address:

Background And Purpose: To identify a PSA threshold value at an intermediate follow-up time after low dose rate (LDR) prostate brachytherapy associated with cure, defined as long-term (10-15 year) freedom from prostate cancer.

Materials And Methods: Data from 7 institutions for 14,220 patients with localized prostate cancer treated with LDR brachytherapy, either alone (8552) or with external beam radiotherapy (n = 1175), androgen deprivation (n = 3165), or both (n = 1328), were analyzed. Risk distribution was 42.4% favorable, 49.2% intermediate, and 8.4% high-risk. Patients with clinical failure before 3.5 years were excluded. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used with clinical failure (local, distant, regional or biochemical triggering salvage) as an endpoint for each of four PSA categories: PSA ≤ 0.2, >0.2 to ≤0.5, >0.5 to ≤1.0, and >1.0 ng/mL. PSA levels at 4 years (±6 months) in 8746 patients without clinical failure were correlated with disease status at 10-15 years.

Results: For the 77.1% of patients with 4-year PSA ≤ 0.2, the freedom-from-recurrence (FFR) rates were 98.7% (95% CI 98.3-99.0) at 10 years and 96.1% (95% CI 94.8-97.2) at 15 years. Three independent validation cohorts confirmed 97-99% 10-year FFR rates with 4-year PSA ≤ 0.2. Successive PSA categories were associated with diminished disease-free rates at 10 and 15 years. PSA category was strongly associated with treatment success (p < 0.0005).

Conclusions: Since 98.7% of patients with PSA ≤ 0.2 ng/mL at 4 years after LDR prostate brachytherapy were disease-free beyond 10 years, we suggest adopting this biochemical definition of cure for patients with ≥4 years' follow-up after LDR brachytherapy.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.radonc.2020.04.038DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7442607PMC
August 2020

Stereotactic radiosurgery for managing brain metastases in Victoria, 2012-2017.

Med J Aust 2020 06 6;212(11):526-527. Epub 2020 Apr 6.

Olivia Newton-John Cancer Centre at Austin Health, Melbourne, VIC.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.5694/mja2.50573DOI Listing
June 2020

Radiation oncology trainee research requirements - re-thinking our intention and approach.

J Med Imaging Radiat Oncol 2020 06 29;64(3):462-463. Epub 2020 Mar 29.

Department of Radiation Oncology, Olivia Newton-John Cancer Wellness and Research Centre, Austin Health, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1754-9485.13022DOI Listing
June 2020

Extent and predictors of grade upgrading and downgrading in an Australian cohort according to the new prostate cancer grade groupings.

Asian J Urol 2019 Oct 7;6(4):321-329. Epub 2019 Mar 7.

Cancer Research Institute, School of Health Sciences, University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia.

Object: To determine the extent and impact of upgrading and downgrading among men who underwent radical prostatectomy (RP) according to new grade groupings and to identify predictors of upgrading from biopsy grade Group I and II, and downgrading to grade Group I, in a community setting.

Methods: Study participants included 2279 men with non-metastatic prostate cancer diagnosed 2006-2015 who underwent prostatectomy, from the multi-institutional South Australia Prostate Cancer Clinical Outcomes Collaborative registry. Extent of up- or down-grading was assessed by comparing biopsy and prostatectomy grade groupings. Risk of biochemical recurrence (BCR) with upgrading was assessed using multivariable competing risk regression. Binomial logistic regression was used to identify pre-treatment predictors of upgrading from grade Groups I and II, and risk group reclassification among men with low risk disease.

Results: Upgrading occurred in 35% of cases, while downgrading occurred in 13% of cases. Sixty percent with grade Group I disease were upgraded following prostatectomy. Upgrading from grade Group I was associated with greater risk of BCR compared with concordant grading (Hazard ratio: 3.1, 95% confidence interval: 1.7-6.0). Older age, higher prostate-specific antigen levels (PSA), fewer biopsy cores, higher number of positive cores and more recent diagnosis predicted upgrading from grade Group I, while higher PSA and clinical stage predicted upgrading from grade Group II. No clinical risk factors for reclassification were identified.

Conclusion: Biopsy sampling errors may play an important role in upgrading from grade Group I. Improved clinical assessment of grade is needed to encourage greater uptake of active surveillance.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ajur.2019.03.001DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6872773PMC
October 2019

A feasibility and acceptability study of an adaptation of the Mindful Self-Compassion program for adult cancer patients.

Palliat Support Care 2020 04;18(2):130-140

Szalmuk Family Psycho-Oncology Research Unit, Cabrini Health, 154 Wattletree Road, Malvern3144, Australia.

Objectives: Psychosocial interventions that mitigate psychosocial distress in cancer patients are important. The primary aim of this study was to examine the feasibility and acceptability of an adaptation of the Mindful Self-Compassion (MSC) program among adult cancer patients. A secondary aim was to examine pre-post-program changes in psychosocial wellbeing.

Method: The research design was a feasibility and acceptability study, with an examination of pre- to post-intervention changes in psychosocial measures. A study information pack was posted to 173 adult cancer patients 6 months-5 years post-diagnosis, with an invitation to attend an eight-week group-based adaptation of the MSC program.

Results: Thirty-two (19%) consented to the program, with 30 commencing. Twenty-seven completed the program (mean age: 62.93 years, SD 14.04; 17 [63%] female), attending a mean 6.93 (SD 1.11) group sessions. There were no significant differences in medico-demographic factors between program-completers and those who did not consent. However, there was a trend toward shorter time since diagnosis in the program-completers group. Program-completers rated the program highly regarding content, relevance to the concerns of cancer patients, and the likelihood of recommending the program to other cancer patients. Sixty-three percent perceived that their mental wellbeing had improved from pre- to post-program; none perceived a deterioration in mental wellbeing. Small-to-medium effects were observed for depressive symptoms, fear of cancer recurrence, stress, loneliness, body image satisfaction, mindfulness, and self-compassion.

Significance Of Results: The MSC program appears feasible and acceptable to adults diagnosed with non-advanced cancer. The preliminary estimates of effect sizes in this sample suggest that participation in the program was associated with improvements in psychosocial wellbeing. Collectively, these findings suggest that there may be value in conducting an adequately powered randomized controlled trial to determine the efficacy of the MSC program in enhancing the psychosocial wellbeing of cancer patients.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1478951519000737DOI Listing
April 2020

Body size and dietary risk factors for aggressive prostate cancer: a case-control study.

Cancer Causes Control 2019 Dec 24;30(12):1301-1312. Epub 2019 Sep 24.

Cancer Epidemiology Division, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.

Purpose: Diet and body size may affect the risk of aggressive prostate cancer (APC), but current evidence is inconclusive.

Methods: A case-control study was conducted in men under 75 years of age recruited from urology practices in Victoria, Australia; 1,254 with APC and 818 controls for whom the presence of prostate cancer had been excluded by biopsy. Dietary intakes were assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Multivariable unconditional logistic regression estimated odds ratios and confidence intervals for hypothesized risk factors, adjusting for age, family history of prostate cancer, country of birth, socioeconomic status, smoking, and other dietary factors.

Results: Positive associations with APC (odds ratio, 95% confidence intervals, highest vs. lowest category or quintile) were observed for body mass index (1.34, 1.02-1.78, P = 0.04), and trouser size (1.54, 1.17-2.04, P = 0.001). Intakes of milk and all dairy products were inversely associated with APC risk (0.71, 9.53-0.96, P = 0.05, and 0.64, 0.48-0.87, P = 0.012, respectively), but there was little evidence of an association with other dietary variables (P > 0.05).

Conclusions: We confirmed previous evidence for a positive association between body size and risk of APC, and suggest that consumption of dairy products, and milk more specifically, is inversely associated with risk.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10552-019-01234-7DOI Listing
December 2019

Variation in the Use of Single- Versus Multifraction Palliative Radiation Therapy for Bone Metastases in Australia.

Int J Radiat Oncol Biol Phys 2020 01 7;106(1):61-66. Epub 2019 Sep 7.

Alfred Health Radiation Oncology Services, Prahran, Australia; Central Clinical School, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.

Purpose: To evaluate the use of single-fraction palliative radiation therapy (SFRT) for the management of bone metastases (BM) in Victoria, Australia.

Methods And Materials: This is a population-based cohort of patients with cancer who received radiation therapy for BM between 2012 and 2017 as captured in the Victorian Radiotherapy Minimum Data Set. The primary outcome was proportion of SFRT use. The Cochrane-Armitage test for trend was used to evaluate changes in practice over time. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess factors associated with SFRT use.

Results: Of the 18,158 courses of radiation therapy for BM delivered to a total of 10,956 patients, 17% were SFRT. There was no significant change in SFRT use over time, from 18% in 2012 to 19% in 2017 (P = .07). SFRT was less commonly given to the skull (4%) and spine (14%), compared with the shoulder (37%) and ribs (53%). Patients with lung cancer (21%) were most likely to receive SFRT, followed by those with prostate cancers (18%) and gastrointestinal cancers (16%). Patients from regional/remote areas were more likely to have SFRT compared with those in major cities (22% vs 16%, P < .001). Patients treated in public institutions were more likely to have SFRT compared with those treated in private institutions (22% vs 10%, P < .001). In multivariable analyses, increasing age, lung cancer, higher socioeconomic status, residence in regional/ remote areas, and being treated in public institutions were factors independently associated with increased likelihood of receiving SFRT.

Conclusions: SFRT appears underused for BM in Australia over time, with variation in practice by patient, tumor, sociodemographic, geographical, and institutional provider factors.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijrobp.2019.08.061DOI Listing
January 2020

Contemporary practice patterns of stereotactic radiosurgery for brain metastasis: A review of published Australian literature.

J Med Imaging Radiat Oncol 2019 Oct 28;63(5):711-720. Epub 2019 Aug 28.

Alfred Health Radiation Oncology Services, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.

There has been a shift in the management of brain metastasis (BM), with increasing use of stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) and delaying/avoiding whole-brain radiotherapy (WBRT), given the concern regarding the long-term neurocognitive effect and quality of life impact of WBRT. It is, however, unclear as to the contemporary practice pattern and outcomes of SRS in Australia. We conducted a literature search in PubMed and MEDLINE using a series of keywords: 'stereotactic', 'radiosurgery' and 'brain metastases', limiting to Australian studies, which report on clinical outcomes following SRS. Eight studies - one randomized trial and seven retrospective cohort studies - were identified and included in this review. A total of 856 patients were included, with the most common primary tumour types being melanoma, lung cancer and breast cancer. Approximately half of the patients had solitary BM, while 7% had 10 or more BM lesions. SRS is not routinely given in combination with WBRT. The 6-month intracranial control and 1-year intracranial control following SRS were reported in the range of 67-87% and 48-82%, respectively, whereas the 1-year overall survival and 2-year overall survival were reported in the range of 37-60% and 20-36%, respectively. There are limited data reported on SRS-related toxicities in all included studies. Overall, despite increasing use of SRS for BM, there is a low number of published Australian series in the literature. There is a potential role for establishing an Australian clinical quality registry or collaborative consortium for SRS in BM, to allow for systematic prospective data collection, and benchmarking of quality and outcomes of SRS.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1754-9485.12942DOI Listing
October 2019

TROG 18.01 phase III randomised clinical trial of the Novel Integration of New prostate radiation schedules with adJuvant Androgen deprivation: NINJA study protocol.

BMJ Open 2019 08 20;9(8):e030731. Epub 2019 Aug 20.

Department of Radiation Oncology, Liverpool Hospital, Liverpool, New South Wales, Australia.

Introduction: Stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) is a non-invasive alternative to surgery for the treatment of non-metastatic prostate cancer (PC). The objectives of the Novel Integration of ew prostate radiation schedules with adJuvant Androgen deprivation (NINJA) clinical trial are to compare two emerging SBRT regimens for efficacy with technical substudies focussing on MRI only planning and the use of knowledge-based planning (KBP) to assess radiotherapy plan quality.

Methods And Analysis: Eligible patients must have biopsy-proven unfavourable intermediate or favourable high-risk PC, have an Eastern Collaborative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status 0-1 and provide written informed consent. All patients will receive 6 months in total of androgen deprivation therapy. Patients will be randomised to one of two SBRT regimens. The first will be 40 Gy in five fractions given on alternating days (SBRT monotherapy). The second will be 20 Gy in two fractions given 1 week apart followed 2 weeks later by 36 Gy in 12 fractions given five times per week (virtual high-dose rate boost (HDRB)). The primary efficacy outcome will be biochemical clinical control at 5 years. Secondary endpoints for the initial portion of NINJA look at the transition of centres towards MRI only planning and the impact of KBP on real-time (RT) plan assessment. The first 150 men will demonstrate accrual feasibility as well as addressing the KBP and MRI planning aims, prior to proceeding with total accrual to 472 patients as a phase III randomised controlled trial.

Ethics And Dissemination: NINJA is a multicentre cooperative clinical trial comparing two SBRT regimens for men with PC. It builds on promising results from several single-armed studies, and explores radiation dose escalation in the Virtual HDRB arm. The initial component includes novel technical elements, and will form an important platform set for a definitive phase III study.

Trial Registration Number: ANZCTN 12615000223538.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2019-030731DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6707760PMC
August 2019

Forecasting annual incidence and mortality rate for prostate cancer in Australia until 2022 using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models.

BMJ Open 2019 08 19;9(8):e031331. Epub 2019 Aug 19.

Alfred Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.

Objectives: Prostate cancer is the second most common cause of cancer-related death in males after lung cancer, imposing a significant burden on the healthcare system in Australia. We propose the use of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models in conjunction with population forecasts to provide for robust annual projections of prostate cancer.

Design: Data on the incidence and mortality from prostate cancer was obtained from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. We formulated several ARIMA models with different autocorrelation terms and chose one which provided for an accurate fit of the data based on the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). We also assessed the model for external validity. A similar process was used to model age-standardised incidence and mortality rate for prostate cancer in Australia during the same time period.

Results: The annual number of prostate cancer cases diagnosed in Australia increased from 3606 in 1982 to 20 065 in 2012. There were two peaks observed around 1994 and 2009. Among the various models evaluated, we found that the model with an autoregressive term of 1 (coefficient=0.45, p=0.028) as well as differencing the series provided the best fit, with a MAPE of 5.2%. External validation showed a good MAPE of 5.8% as well. We project prostate cancer incident cases in 2022 to rise to 25 283 cases (95% CI: 23 233 to 27 333).

Conclusion: Our study has accurately characterised the trend of prostate cancer incidence and mortality in Australia, and this information will prove useful for resource planning and manpower allocation.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2019-031331DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6707661PMC
August 2019

Trends in Conservative Management for Low-risk Prostate Cancer in a Population-based Cohort of Australian Men Diagnosed Between 2009 and 2016.

Eur Urol Oncol 2021 04 6;4(2):319-322. Epub 2019 May 6.

Alfred Health Radiation Oncology Services, Melbourne, Australia; Central Clinical School, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.

Conservative management, specifically with active surveillance (AS), has emerged as the preferred approach for low-risk prostate cancer (LRPC). We evaluated the trend for conservative management (ie, no active treatment within 12mo of diagnosis) for LRPC in an Australian population-based cohort of men captured in the Prostate Cancer Outcomes Registry Victoria (PCOR-Vic). Of the 3201 men diagnosed with LRPC between January 2009 and December 2016, 60% (1928/3201) had conservative management, and 52% (1664/3201) were documented to be on AS. There was an increase in conservative management from 52% in 2009 to 73% in 2016 (p<0.001), largely attributable to an increase in AS from 33% in 2009 to 67% in 2016 (p<0.001). When stratified by age group, the increase in conservative management was more pronounced among younger patients: from 37% to 66% for men aged <60yr versus from 72% to 86% for men aged ≥70yr. In multivariable analyses, increasing age, lower prostate-specific antigen and clinical category, lower socioeconomic status, and being diagnosed in public metropolitan institutions were all independently associated with a greater likelihood of conservative management. Identification of sociodemographic and institutional variations in practice allows for targeted strategies to improve management for men with LRPC. PATIENT SUMMARY: We looked at the uptake of conservative management (no active treatment within 12 mo of diagnosis) over time in an Australian population-based cohort of men with low-risk prostate cancer. The proportion of men with low-risk prostate cancer managed conservatively increased from 52% in 2009 to 73% in 2016. The increase in the uptake of conservative management for low-risk prostate cancer in Australia is concordant with international guidelines and other international population-based studies.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.euo.2019.04.006DOI Listing
April 2021
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