Publications by authors named "Hani Slamani"

2 Publications

  • Page 1 of 1

Predicting temperature-dependent transmission suitability of bluetongue virus in livestock.

Parasit Vectors 2021 Jul 30;14(1):382. Epub 2021 Jul 30.

Department of Biological Sciences, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, 24061, USA.

The transmission of vector-borne diseases is governed by complex factors including pathogen characteristics, vector-host interactions, and environmental conditions. Temperature is a major driver for many vector-borne diseases including Bluetongue viral (BTV) disease, a midge-borne febrile disease of ruminants, notably livestock, whose etiology ranges from mild or asymptomatic to rapidly fatal, thus threatening animal agriculture and the economy of affected countries. Using modeling tools, we seek to predict where the transmission can occur based on suitable temperatures for BTV. We fit thermal performance curves to temperature-sensitive midge life-history traits, using a Bayesian approach. We incorporate these curves into S(T), a transmission suitability metric derived from the disease's basic reproductive number, [Formula: see text] This suitability metric encompasses all components that are known to be temperature-dependent. We use trait responses for two species of key midge vectors, Culicoides sonorensis and Culicoides variipennis present in North America. Our results show that outbreaks of BTV are more likely between 15[Formula: see text] C and [Formula: see text], with predicted peak transmission risk at 26 [Formula: see text] C. The greatest uncertainty in S(T) is associated with the following: the uncertainty in mortality and fecundity of midges near optimal temperature for transmission; midges' probability of becoming infectious post-infection at the lower edge of the thermal range; and the biting rate together with vector competence at the higher edge of the thermal range. We compare three model formulations and show that incorporating thermal curves into all three leads to similar BTV risk predictions. To demonstrate the utility of this modeling approach, we created global suitability maps indicating the areas at high and long-term risk of BTV transmission, to assess risk and to anticipate potential locations of disease establishment.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13071-021-04826-yDOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8323090PMC
July 2021

Transmission of West Nile and five other temperate mosquito-borne viruses peaks at temperatures between 23°C and 26°C.

Elife 2020 09 15;9. Epub 2020 Sep 15.

Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, United States.

The temperature-dependence of many important mosquito-borne diseases has never been quantified. These relationships are critical for understanding current distributions and predicting future shifts from climate change. We used trait-based models to characterize temperature-dependent transmission of 10 vector-pathogen pairs of mosquitoes (, , , and others) and viruses (West Nile, Eastern and Western Equine Encephalitis, St. Louis Encephalitis, Sindbis, and Rift Valley Fever viruses), most with substantial transmission in temperate regions. Transmission is optimized at intermediate temperatures (23-26°C) and often has wider thermal breadths (due to cooler lower thermal limits) compared to pathogens with predominately tropical distributions (in previous studies). The incidence of human West Nile virus cases across US counties responded unimodally to average summer temperature and peaked at 24°C, matching model-predicted optima (24-25°C). Climate warming will likely shift transmission of these diseases, increasing it in cooler locations while decreasing it in warmer locations.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.58511DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7492091PMC
September 2020
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