Gary Collins

Gary Collins

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Gary Collins

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Global, regional and national burden of rheumatoid arthritis 1990-2017: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study 2017.

Ann Rheum Dis 2019 Nov 11;78(11):1463-1471. Epub 2019 Sep 11.

Institute of Bone and Joint Research, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, St Leonards, New South Wales, Australia

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/annrheumdis-2019-215920DOI Listing
November 2019

Regarding A Nomogram to Predict Osteoradionecrosis in Oral Cancer After Marginal Mandibulectomy and Radiotherapy.

Laryngoscope 2019 Oct 31;129(10):E343. Epub 2019 May 31.

KU Leuven, Department of Development and Regeneration, Leuven, Belgium.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/lary.28089DOI Listing
October 2019

[Reporting guidelines: tools to increase the completeness and transparency of your anesthesiology research paper].

Rev Bras Anestesiol 2019 Oct 17. Epub 2019 Oct 17.

Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Medicina, Disciplina de Anestesiologia, São Paulo, SP, Brasil. Electronic address:

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.bjan.2019.09.008DOI Listing
October 2019

A framework for meta-analysis of prediction model studies with binary and time-to-event outcomes.

Stat Methods Med Res 2019 Sep 23;28(9):2768-2786. Epub 2018 Jul 23.

1 Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0962280218785504DOI Listing
September 2019

Interim PET-results for prognosis in adults with Hodgkin lymphoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prognostic factor studies.

Cochrane Database Syst Rev 2019 09 16;9:CD012643. Epub 2019 Sep 16.

University of Cologne, Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital Cologne, Department I of Internal Medicine, Center for Integrated Oncology Aachen Bonn Cologne Duesseldorf, Cochrane Haematological Malignancies, Kerpener Str. 62, Cologne, Germany, 50937.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/14651858.CD012643.pub2DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6746624PMC
September 2019

Sample size for binary logistic prediction models: Beyond events per variable criteria.

Stat Methods Med Res 2019 Aug 3;28(8):2455-2474. Epub 2018 Jul 3.

1 Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0962280218784726DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6710621PMC
August 2019

Predictive analytics in health care: how can we know it works?

J Am Med Inform Assoc 2019 Aug 2. Epub 2019 Aug 2.

Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield, Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, UK.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jamia/ocz130DOI Listing
August 2019

Statistics versus machine learning: definitions are interesting (but understanding, methodology, and reporting are more important).

J Clin Epidemiol 2019 Aug 16. Epub 2019 Aug 16.

Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Botnar Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford, UK.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2019.08.002DOI Listing
August 2019

Development of a risk score for early saphenous vein graft failure: An individual patient data meta-analysis.

J Thorac Cardiovasc Surg 2019 Aug 26. Epub 2019 Aug 26.

Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Radcliffe Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom. Electronic address:

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtcvs.2019.07.086DOI Listing
August 2019

A systematic review shows no performance benefit of machine learning over logistic regression for clinical prediction models.

J Clin Epidemiol 2019 Jun 11;110:12-22. Epub 2019 Feb 11.

Department of Development & Regeneration, KU Leuven, Herestraat 49 box 805, Leuven, 3000 Belgium; Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Centre, Albinusdreef 2, Leiden, 2333 ZA The Netherlands. Electronic address:

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2019.02.004DOI Listing
June 2019

Reply to: NEWS2 needs to be tested in prospective trials involving patients with confirmed hypercapnia.

Resuscitation 2019 Jun 18;139:371-372. Epub 2019 Apr 18.

Nuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.resuscitation.2019.03.046DOI Listing
June 2019

Competing risk survival analysis of time to in-hospital death or discharge in a large urban neonatal unit in Kenya.

Wellcome Open Res 2019 17;4:96. Epub 2019 Jun 17.

Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15302.1DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6611136PMC
June 2019

Modeling strategies to improve parameter estimates in prognostic factors analyses with patient-reported outcomes in oncology.

Qual Life Res 2019 May 18;28(5):1315-1325. Epub 2019 Jan 18.

Data Center and Health Outcomes Research Unit, Italian Group for Adult Hematologic Diseases (GIMEMA), Rome, Italy.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11136-018-02097-2DOI Listing
May 2019

Propensity score methods and regression adjustment for analysis of nonrandomized studies with health-related quality of life outcomes.

Pharmacoepidemiol Drug Saf 2019 May 19;28(5):690-699. Epub 2019 Feb 19.

Italian Group for Adult Hematologic Diseases (GIMEMA) Data Center and Health Outcomes Research Unit, Rome, Italy.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/pds.4756DOI Listing
May 2019

Artificial Intelligence Algorithms for Medical Prediction Should Be Nonproprietary and Readily Available.

JAMA Intern Med 2019 May;179(5):731

Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jamainternmed.2019.0597DOI Listing
May 2019

Letter by Doosti-Irani et al Regarding Article, "Associations of Variability in Blood Pressure, Glucose and Cholesterol Concentrations, and Body Mass Index With Mortality and Cardiovascular Outcomes in the General Population".

Circulation 2019 May;139(19):e909-e910

Department of Epidemiology and Modeling of Noncommunicable Diseases Research Center, School of Public Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Iran (A.D.-I.).

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.118.038504DOI Listing
May 2019

Guide to presenting clinical prediction models for use in clinical settings.

BMJ 2019 04 17;365:l737. Epub 2019 Apr 17.

Centre for Prognosis Research, Research Institute for Primary Care and Health Sciences, Keele University, Keele, UK.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.l737DOI Listing
April 2019

Reporting of artificial intelligence prediction models.

Lancet 2019 Apr;393(10181):1577-1579

Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, and Cochrane Netherlands, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands.

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https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S01406736193003
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(19)30037-6DOI Listing
April 2019

Minimum sample size for developing a multivariable prediction model: Part I - Continuous outcomes.

Stat Med 2019 Mar 22;38(7):1262-1275. Epub 2018 Oct 22.

Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

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http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/sim.7993
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sim.7993DOI Listing
March 2019

Minimum sample size for developing a multivariable prediction model: PART II - binary and time-to-event outcomes.

Stat Med 2019 Mar 24;38(7):1276-1296. Epub 2018 Oct 24.

Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

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http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/sim.7992
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sim.7992DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6519266PMC
March 2019

The Fragility and Reliability of Conclusions of Anesthesia and Critical Care Randomized Trials With Statistically Significant Findings: A Systematic Review.

Crit Care Med 2019 Mar;47(3):456-462

Departments of Anesthesia & Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Michael DeGroote School of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University and the Perioperative Research Group, Population Health Research Institute, Hamilton, ON, Canada.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/CCM.0000000000003527DOI Listing
March 2019

Serious adverse events and lifetime risk of reoperation after elective shoulder replacement: population based cohort study using hospital episode statistics for England.

BMJ 2019 02 20;364:l298. Epub 2019 Feb 20.

Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Botnar Research Centre, Oxford OX3 7LD, UK.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.l298DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6380386PMC
February 2019

A robust imputation method for missing responses and covariates in sample selection models.

Stat Methods Med Res 2019 Jan 5;28(1):102-116. Epub 2017 Jul 5.

2 Centre for Statistics in Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0962280217715663DOI Listing
January 2019

Use of G-methods for handling time-varying confounding in observational research.

Lancet Glob Health 2019 01;7(1):e35

Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(18)30471-6DOI Listing
January 2019

PROBAST: A Tool to Assess the Risk of Bias and Applicability of Prediction Model Studies.

Ann Intern Med 2019 01;170(1):51-58

Institute of Applied Health Research, National Institute for Health Research Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre, College of Medical and Dental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom (S.M.).

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http://dx.doi.org/10.7326/M18-1376DOI Listing
January 2019

PROBAST: A Tool to Assess Risk of Bias and Applicability of Prediction Model Studies: Explanation and Elaboration.

Ann Intern Med 2019 01;170(1):W1-W33

Institute of Applied Health Research, National Institute for Health Research Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre, College of Medical and Dental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom (S.M.).

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http://dx.doi.org/10.7326/M18-1377DOI Listing
January 2019

A guide to systematic review and meta-analysis of prognostic factor studies.

BMJ 2019 Jan 30;364:k4597. Epub 2019 Jan 30.

Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands.

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http://www.bmj.com/lookup/doi/10.1136/bmj.k4597
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.k4597DOI Listing
January 2019

Correlation Between Endoscopic and Histological Activity in Ulcerative Colitis Using Validated Indices.

J Crohns Colitis 2018 Nov;12(10):1151-1157

Translational Gastroenterology Unit, John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford, UK.

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https://academic.oup.com/ecco-jcc/article/12/10/1151/5035459
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ecco-jcc/jjy081DOI Listing
November 2018

Response to "Why all randomized controlled trials produce biased results".

Ann Med 2018 11 12;50(7):545-548. Epub 2018 Sep 12.

d Department of Biostatistics , Vanderbilt University , Nashville , TN , USA.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/07853890.2018.1514529DOI Listing
November 2018

Overinterpretation and misreporting of prognostic factor studies in oncology: a systematic review.

Br J Cancer 2018 11 24;119(10):1288-1296. Epub 2018 Oct 24.

Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, Botnar Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

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http://www.nature.com/articles/s41416-018-0305-5
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41416-018-0305-5DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6251031PMC
November 2018

The Reporting Items for Patent Landscapes statement.

Nat Biotechnol 2018 11;36(11):1043-1047

Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

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http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nbt.4291
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nbt.4291DOI Listing
November 2018

Measurement error and timing of predictor values for multivariable risk prediction models are poorly reported.

J Clin Epidemiol 2018 10 18;102:38-49. Epub 2018 May 18.

Centre for Prognosis Research, Arthritis Research UK Primary Care Centre, Research Institute for Primary Care & Health Sciences, Keele University, Keele, Staffordshire, UK.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2018.05.008DOI Listing
October 2018

Differential Mortality and the Excess Rates of Hip Fracture Associated With Type 2 Diabetes: Accounting for Competing Risks in Fracture Prediction Matters.

J Bone Miner Res 2018 08 3;33(8):1417-1421. Epub 2018 May 3.

Grup de Recerca en Malalties Prevalents de l'Aparell Locomotor (GREMPAL) Research Group and CIBERFes, University Institute for Primary Care Research (IDIAP) Jordi Gol, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona and Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Barcelona, Spain.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jbmr.3435DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6108421PMC
August 2018

Statistical Primer: developing and validating a risk prediction model.

Eur J Cardiothorac Surg 2018 08;54(2):203-208

Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Papworth Hospital, Cambridge, UK.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ejcts/ezy180DOI Listing
August 2018

Development and validation of response markers to predict survival and pleurodesis success in patients with malignant pleural effusion (PROMISE): a multicohort analysis.

Lancet Oncol 2018 07 13;19(7):930-939. Epub 2018 Jun 13.

Oxford Centre for Respiratory Medicine, Churchill Hospital, Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Oxford, UK; Laboratory of Pleural and Lung Cancer Translational Research, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Oxford Respiratory Trials Unit, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1470-2045(18)30294-8DOI Listing
July 2018

Consequences of relying on statistical significance: Some illustrations.

Eur J Clin Invest 2018 May 28;48(5):e12912. Epub 2018 Feb 28.

Institute for Media Studies, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/eci.12912DOI Listing
May 2018

Comparison of the ability of double-robust estimators to correct bias in propensity score matching analysis. A Monte Carlo simulation study.

Pharmacoepidemiol Drug Saf 2017 Dec 6;26(12):1513-1519. Epub 2017 Oct 6.

Department of Anesthesia, Michael DeGroote School of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/pds.4325DOI Listing
December 2017

Early warning scores for detecting deterioration in adult hospital patients: a systematic review protocol.

BMJ Open 2017 Dec 3;7(12):e019268. Epub 2017 Dec 3.

Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology & Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2017-019268DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5736035PMC
December 2017

Handling time varying confounding in observational research.

BMJ 2017 10 16;359:j4587. Epub 2017 Oct 16.

Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.j4587DOI Listing
October 2017

Derivation and validation of a novel risk score for safe discharge after acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding: a modelling study.

Lancet Gastroenterol Hepatol 2017 09 23;2(9):635-643. Epub 2017 Jun 23.

Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Botnar Research Centre, Oxford, UK.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2468-1253(17)30150-4DOI Listing
September 2017

Magnitude and direction of missing confounders had different consequences on treatment effect estimation in propensity score analysis.

J Clin Epidemiol 2017 Jul 12;87:87-97. Epub 2017 Apr 12.

Department of Anesthesia, Michael DeGroote School of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada; Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Michael DeGroote School of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada; Population Health Research Institute, David Braley Cardiac, Vascular and Stroke Research Institute, Perioperative Medicine and Surgical Research Unit, Hamilton, Canada. Electronic address:

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2017.04.001DOI Listing
July 2017

Restrictive versus liberal blood transfusion for gastrointestinal bleeding: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials.

Lancet Gastroenterol Hepatol 2017 05 23;2(5):354-360. Epub 2017 Mar 23.

Department of Medicine, Western University, London, ON, Canada; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Western University, London, ON, Canada. Electronic address:

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2468-1253(17)30054-7DOI Listing
May 2017

Simple randomization did not protect against bias in smaller trials.

J Clin Epidemiol 2017 Apr 28;84:105-113. Epub 2017 Feb 28.

Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Michael DeGroote School of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada; Department of Anesthesia, Michael DeGroote School of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada; Population Health Research Institute, David Braley Cardiac, Vascular and Stroke Research Institute, Perioperative Medicine and Surgical Research Unit, Perioperative Research Group, Population Health Research Institute, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada. Electronic address:

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2017.02.010DOI Listing
April 2017

Double-adjustment in propensity score matching analysis: choosing a threshold for considering residual imbalance.

BMC Med Res Methodol 2017 Apr 28;17(1):78. Epub 2017 Apr 28.

Departments of Anesthesia & Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Michael DeGroote School of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University and the Perioperative Research Group, Population Health Research Institute, Hamilton, Canada.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12874-017-0338-0DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5408373PMC
April 2017

Statistical Inefficiencies in the Development of a Prediction Model.

Anesth Analg 2017 03;124(3):1011-1012

Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Botnar Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, Departments of Anesthesia & Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Michael DeGroote School of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University and the Perioperative Research Group, Population Health Research Institute, Hamilton, Canada.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1213/ANE.0000000000001838DOI Listing
March 2017

Erratum to: Methods for evaluating medical tests and biomarkers.

Authors:
Gowri Gopalakrishna Miranda Langendam Rob Scholten Patrick Bossuyt Mariska Leeflang Anna Noel-Storr James Thomas Iain Marshall Byron Wallace Penny Whiting Clare Davenport Mariska Leeflang Gowri GopalaKrishna Isabel de Salis Sue Mallett Robert Wolff Penny Whiting Richard Riley Marie Westwood Jos Kleinen Gary Collins Hans Reitsma Karel Moons Antonia Zapf Annika Hoyer Katharina Kramer Oliver Kuss J Ensor J J Deeks E C Martin R D Riley Gerta Rücker Susanne Steinhauser Martin Schumacher Richard Riley Joie Ensor Kym Snell Brian Willis Thomas Debray Karel Moons Jon Deeks Gary Collins Lavinia Ferrante di Ruffano Brian Willis Clare Davenport Sue Mallett Sian Taylor-Phillips Chris Hyde Jon Deeks Sue Mallett Stuart A Taylor Gauraang Batnagar Sian Taylor-Phillips Lavinia Ferrante Di Ruffano Farah Seedat Aileen Clarke Jon Deeks Sarah Byron Frances Nixon Rebecca Albrow Thomas Walker Carla Deakin Chris Hyde Zhivko Zhelev Harriet Hunt Lavinia Ferrante di Ruffano Yaling Yang Lucy Abel James Buchanan Thomas Fanshawe Bethany Shinkins Laure Wynants Jan Verbakel Sabine Van Huffel Dirk Timmerman Ben Van Calster Mariska Leeflang Aeliko Zwinderman Patrick Bossuyt Jason Oke Jack O'Sullivan Rafael Perera Brian Nicholson Hannah L Bromley Tracy E Roberts Adele Francis Denniis Petrie G Bruce Mann Kinga Malottki Holly Smith Jon Deeks Lucinda Billingham Alice Sitch Sue Mallett Jon Deeks Oke Gerke Mie Holm-Vilstrup Eivind Antonsen Segtnan Ulrich Halekoh Poul Flemming Høilund-Carlsen Bernard G Francq Jon Deeks Alice Sitch Jac Dinnes Julie Parkes Walter Gregory Jenny Hewison Doug Altman William Rosenberg Peter Selby Julien Asselineau Paul Perez Aïssatou Paye Emilie Bessede Cécile Proust-Lima Christiana Naaktgeboren Joris de Groot Anne Rutjes Patrick Bossuyt Johannes Reitsma Karel Moons Gary Collins Emmanuel Ogundimu Jonathan Cook Yannick Le Manach Doug Altman Laure Wynants Yvonne Vergouwe Sabine Van Huffel Dirk Timmerman Ben Van Calster Romin Pajouheshnia Rolf Groenwold Karen Moons Johannes Reitsma Linda Peelen Ben Van Calster Daan Nieboer Yvonne Vergouwe Bavo De Cock Micael J Pencina Ewout W Steyerberg Jennifer Cooper Sian Taylor-Phillips Nick Parsons Chris Stinton Steve Smith Andy Dickens Rachel Jordan Alexandra Enocson David Fitzmaurice Alice Sitch Peymane Adab Bernard G Francq Charles Boachie Gaj Vidmar Karoline Freeman Martin Connock Sian Taylor-Phillips Rachel Court Aileen Clarke Joris de Groot Christiana Naaktgeboren Hans Reitsma Carl Moons Jessica Harris Andrew Mumford Zoe Plummer Kurtis Lee Barnaby Reeves Chris Rogers Veerle Verheyden Gianni D Angelini Gavin J Murphy Jeremy Huddy Melody Ni Katherine Good Graham Cooke Patrick Bossuyt George Hanna Jie Ma Doug Altman Gary Collins K G M Carl Moons Joris A H de Groot Sue Mallett Doug G Altman Johannes B Reitsma Gary S Collins Karel G M Moons Douglas G Altman Johannes B Reitsma Gary S Collins Adina Najwa Kamarudin Ruwanthi Kolamunnage-Dona Trevor Cox Melody Ni Jeremy Huddy Simone Borsci George Hanna Teresa Pérez M Carmen Pardo Angel Candela-Toha Alfonso Muriel Javier Zamora Sabina Sanghera Syed Mohiuddin Richard Martin Jenny Donovan Joanna Coast Mikyung Kelly Seo John Cairns Elizabeth Mitchell Alison Smith Judy Wright Peter Hall Michael Messenger Nicola Calder Nyantara Wickramasekera Karen Vinall-Collier Andrew Lewington Romin Pajouheshnia Johanna Damen Rolf Groenwold Karel Moons Linda Peelen Michael Messenger David Cairns Alison Smith Michelle Hutchinson Judy Wright Peter Hall Nicola Calder Cathie Sturgeon Liz Mitchel Rebecca Kift Sofia Christakoudi Manohursingh Rungall Paula Mobillo Rosa Montero Tjir-Li Tsui Sui Phin Kon Beatriz Tucker Steven Sacks Chris Farmer Terry Strom Paramit Chowdhury Irene Rebollo-Mesa Maria Hernandez-Fuentes Johanna A A G Damen Thomas P A Debray Pauline Heus Lotty Hooft Karel G M Moons Romin Pajouheshnia Johannes B Reitsma Rob J P M Scholten Johanna A A G Damen Lotty Hooft Ewoud Schuit Thomas P A Debray Gary S Collins Ioanna Tzoulaki Camille M Lassale George C M Siontis Virginia Chiocchia Corran Roberts Michael Maia Schlüssel Stephen Gerry James A Black Pauline Heus Yvonne T van der Schouw Linda M Peelen Karel G M Moons Johanna A A G Damen Thomas P A Debray Pauline Heus Lotty Hooft Karel G M Moons Romin Pajouheshnia Johannes B Reitsma Rob J P M Scholten Jie Ma Doug Altman Gary Collins Graeme Spence David McCartney Ann van den Bruel Daniel Lasserson Gail Hayward Werner Vach Antoinette de Jong Coreline Burggraaff Otto Hoekstra Josée Zijlstra Henrica de Vet Harriet Hunt Chris Hyde Sara Graziadio Joy Allen Louise Johnston Rachel O'Leary Michael Power Joy Allen Sara Graziadio Louise Johnson Rachel O'Leary Michael Power Ray Waters John Simpson Louise Johnston Joy Allen Sara Graziadio Rachel O'Leary Ray Waters Michael Power Sue Mallett Thomas R Fanshawe Peter Phillips Andrew Plumb Emma Helbren Steve Halligan Stuart A Taylor Alastair Gale Sue Mallett Peggy Sekula Douglas G Altman Willi Sauerbrei Sue Mallett Thomas R Fanshawe Julia R Forman Susan J Dutton Yemisi Takwoingi Elizabeth M Hensor Thomas E Nichols Bethany Shinkins Yaling Yang Lucy Abel Lavinia Ferrante Di Ruffano Thomas Fanshawe Emmanuelle Kempf Raphael Porcher Jennifer de Beyer Karel Moons Douglas Altman Hans Reitsma Sally Hopewell Willi Sauerbrei Gary Collins John Dennis Beverley Shields Angus Jones William Henley Ewan Pearson Andrew Hattersley Pauline Heus Johanna A A G Damen Romin Pajouheshnia Rob J P M Scholten Johannes B Reitsma Gary S Collins Douglas G Altman Karel G M Moons Lotty Hooft Beverley Shields John Dennis Angus Jones William Henley Ewan Pearson Andrew Hattersley Fueloep Scheibler Anne Rummer Sibylle Sturtz Robert Großelfinger Katie Banister Craig Ramsay Augusto Azuara-Blanco Jonathan Cook Charles Boachie Jennifer Burr Manjula Kumarasamy Rupert Bourne Ijeoma Uchegbu Simone Borsci Jennifer Murphy George Hanna Ijeoma Uchegbu Alex Carter Jen Murphy Melody Ni Joachim Marti Julie Eatock Ijeoma Uchegbu Julie Robotham Maria Dudareva Mark Gilchrist Alison Holmes 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Kym Snell Sue Mallet Jon Deeks Sudha Sundar Emma Hall Nuria Porta David Lorente Estelles Johann de Bono

Diagn Progn Res 2017 30;1:11. Epub 2017 Mar 30.

278The Institute of Cancer Research, London, UK.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s41512-017-0011-4DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6460744PMC
March 2017

A new community for those involved and interested in diagnosis and prognosis.

Diagn Progn Res 2017 8;1. Epub 2017 Feb 8.

4Centre for Statistics in Medicine, NDORMS, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s41512-016-0007-5DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6457139PMC
February 2017

Uninformative and misleading comparison of EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II.

Eur J Cardiothorac Surg 2017 02;51(2):399-400

Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Botnar Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ejcts/ezw262DOI Listing
February 2017

Nomograms need to be presented in full.

Cancer 2017 01 14;123(1):177-178. Epub 2016 Sep 14.

Department of Anesthesia, Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Michael DeGroote School of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University; Perioperative Research Group, Population Health Research Institute, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/cncr.30347DOI Listing
January 2017

Combining Systems and Teamwork Approaches to Enhance the Effectiveness of Safety Improvement Interventions in Surgery: The Safer Delivery of Surgical Services (S3) Program.

Ann Surg 2017 01;265(1):90-96

*Quality, Reliability Safety & Teamwork Unit, Nuffield Department of Surgical Science †Said Business School, University of Oxford, UK ‡Cedars Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA §Oxford University Hospitals NHS Trust, Oxford ¶Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, University of Warwick ||Centre for Statistics in Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/SLA.0000000000001589DOI Listing
January 2017

Flawed validation of FRAX.

Bone 2016 12 6;93:217. Epub 2015 Jul 6.

Department of Anesthesia & Clinical Epidemiology, Michael DeGroote School of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University, Perioperative Research Group, Population Health Research Institute, Hamilton, Canada; Department of Biostatistics, Michael DeGroote School of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University, Perioperative Research Group, Population Health Research Institute, Hamilton, Canada. Electronic address:

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.bone.2015.07.005DOI Listing
December 2016

Statistical concerns in the development of a prediction model.

Authors:
Gary S Collins

Br J Radiol 2016 11 23;89(1067):20160655. Epub 2016 Sep 23.

Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Botnar Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1259/bjr.20160655DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5124854PMC
November 2016

Letter to the Editor: Models Developed Using Small Datasets Should be Appropriately Evaluated.

J Clin Endocrinol Metab 2016 11;101(11):L104-L105

Departments of Anesthesia and Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics (Y.L.M.), Michael DeGroote School of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University and the Perioperative Research Group, Population Health Research Institute, Hamilton, Canada ON L8L 2X2. E-mail:

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1210/jc.2016-2934DOI Listing
November 2016

No rationale for 1 variable per 10 events criterion for binary logistic regression analysis.

BMC Med Res Methodol 2016 11 24;16(1):163. Epub 2016 Nov 24.

Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Heidelberglaan 100, Utrecht, The Netherlands.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12874-016-0267-3DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5122171PMC
November 2016

Explicit inclusion of treatment in prognostic modeling was recommended in observational and randomized settings.

J Clin Epidemiol 2016 10 1;78:90-100. Epub 2016 Apr 1.

Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, PO Box 85500, 3508 GA Utrecht, The Netherlands.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2016.03.017DOI Listing
October 2016

Quantifying the impact of different approaches for handling continuous predictors on the performance of a prognostic model.

Stat Med 2016 10 18;35(23):4124-35. Epub 2016 May 18.

Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Windmill Road, Oxford, OX3 7LD, U.K.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sim.6986DOI Listing
October 2016

In Reply.

Anesthesiology 2016 10;125(4):816-7

McMaster University and the Perioperative Research Group, Population Health Research Institute, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada (Y.L.M.).

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/ALN.0000000000001270DOI Listing
October 2016

COmmunity-based Rehabilitation after Knee Arthroplasty (CORKA): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

Trials 2016 10 13;17(1):501. Epub 2016 Oct 13.

NIHR - BRU, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7LD, UK.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13063-016-1629-1DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5064916PMC
October 2016

Adequate sample size for developing prediction models is not simply related to events per variable.

J Clin Epidemiol 2016 08 8;76:175-82. Epub 2016 Mar 8.

Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology & Musculoskeletal Diseases, Botnar Research Centre, University of Oxford, Windmill Road, Oxford OX3 7LD, UK.

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http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5045274PMC
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2016.02.031DOI Listing
August 2016

Study protocol: first nationwide comparative audit of acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding in the UK.

BMJ Open 2016 08 4;6(8):e011752. Epub 2016 Aug 4.

Department of Medicine, Division of Gastroenterology, Western University and London Health Sciences Centre, Ontario, Canada Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2016-011752DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4985848PMC
August 2016

An external validation of models to predict the onset of chronic kidney disease using population-based electronic health records from Salford, UK.

BMC Med 2016 Jul 12;14:104. Epub 2016 Jul 12.

NIHR Greater Manchester Primary Care Patient Safety Translational Research Centre, Institute of Population Health, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12916-016-0650-2DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4940699PMC
July 2016

External validation of clinical prediction models using big datasets from e-health records or IPD meta-analysis: opportunities and challenges.

BMJ 2016 Jun 22;353:i3140. Epub 2016 Jun 22.

Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

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http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4916924PMC
http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.i3140DOI Listing
June 2016

Prediction models for cardiovascular disease risk in the general population: systematic review.

BMJ 2016 May 16;353:i2416. Epub 2016 May 16.

Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands Cochrane Netherlands, University Medical Center Utrecht, PO Box 85500, Str 6.131, 3508 GA Utrecht, Netherlands.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.i2416DOI Listing
May 2016

Preoperative Score to Predict Postoperative Mortality (POSPOM): Derivation and Validation.

Anesthesiology 2016 Mar;124(3):570-9

From the Department of Anesthesia (Y.L.M.), Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics (Y.L.M., P.J.D.), and Department of Medicine (P.J.D.), Faculty of Health Sciences, Michael DeGroote School of Medicine, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada; Perioperative Research Group, Population Health Research Institute, Hamilton, Canada (Y.L.M., R.R.); Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Botnar Research Centre, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom (G.C.); Perioperative Research Group, Department of Anaesthesia, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa (R.R.); Department of Biostatistics and Medical Information, Necker University Hospital, Assistance Publique Hôpitaux de Paris, France (C.L.B.-B.); Perioperative Research Group, Department of Anaesthetics, Nelson R Mandela School of Medicine, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa (B.B.); Department of Emergency Medicine and Surgery, CHU Pitié-Salpêtrière, Paris, France (B.R.); Population Health Research Institute, David Braley Cardiac, Vascular and Stroke Research Institute, Perioperative Medicine and Surgical Research Unit, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada (P.J.D.); and Montpellier 1 University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Biostatistics, Clinical Research and Medical Informatics, Nîmes University Hospital, Nîmes, France (P.L.).

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/ALN.0000000000000972DOI Listing
March 2016

Hip Fracture Surgery vs Elective Total Hip Replacement--Reply.

JAMA 2016 Mar;315(9):942-3

Population Health Research Institute, David Braley Cardiac, Vascular and Stroke Research Institute, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jama.2015.17861DOI Listing
March 2016

Feasibility of surgical randomised controlled trials with a placebo arm: a systematic review.

BMJ Open 2016 Mar 15;6(3):e010194. Epub 2016 Mar 15.

Oxford NIHR Musculoskeletal Biomedical Research Unit, Oxford, UK Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, Botnar Institute of Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK Royal College of Surgeons of England Clinical Trials Unit, Botnar Institute of Musculoskeletal Sciences, Oxford, UK.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2015-010194DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4800115PMC
March 2016

Small data sets to develop and validate prognostic models are problematic.

Eur J Cancer 2016 Feb 17;54:167-168. Epub 2015 Dec 17.

Departments of Anesthesia & Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Michael DeGroote School of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University and the Perioperative Research Group, Population Health Research Institute, Hamilton, Canada.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejca.2015.09.025DOI Listing
February 2016

Sample size considerations for the external validation of a multivariable prognostic model: a resampling study.

Stat Med 2016 Jan 9;35(2):214-26. Epub 2015 Nov 9.

Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, Botnar Research Centre, University of Oxford, Windmill Road, Oxford, OX3 7LD, U.K.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sim.6787DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4738418PMC
January 2016

Assessing calibration in an external validation study.

Spine J 2015 Nov;15(11):2446-7

Departments of Anesthesia & Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Michael DeGroote School of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University, 1280 Main Street, West Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4L8, Canada; Population Health Research Institute, David Braley Cardiac, Vascular and Stroke Research Institute, Perioperative Medicine and Surgical Research Unit, 237 Barton Street East, Hamilton, ON L8L 2X2, Canada.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.spinee.2015.06.043DOI Listing
November 2015