Publications by authors named "G Carioli"

45 Publications

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2021 with focus on pancreatic and female lung cancer.

Authors:
G Carioli M Malvezzi P Bertuccio P Boffetta F Levi C La Vecchia E Negri

Ann Oncol 2021 04 21;32(4):478-487. Epub 2021 Feb 21.

Department of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy.

Background: We predicted cancer mortality statistics for 2021 for the European Union (EU) and its five most populous countries plus the UK. We also focused on pancreatic cancer and female lung cancer.

Materials And Methods: We obtained cancer death certifications and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases for 1970-2015. We predicted numbers of deaths and age-standardised (world population) rates for 2021 for total cancers and 10 major cancer sites, using a joinpoint regression model. We calculated the number of avoided deaths over the period 1989-2021.

Results: We predicted 1 267 000 cancer deaths for 2021 in the EU, corresponding to age-standardised rates of 130.4/100 000 men (-6.6% since 2015) and 81.0/100 000 for women (-4.5%). We estimated further falls in male lung cancer rates, but still trending upward in women by +6.5%, reaching 14.5/100 000 in 2021. The breast cancer predicted rate in the EU was 13.3/100 000 (-7.8%). The rates for stomach and leukaemias in both sexes and for bladder in males are predicted to fall by >10%; trends for other cancer sites were also favourable, except for the pancreas, which showed stable patterns in both sexes, with predicted rates of 8.1/100 000 in men and 5.6/100 000 in women. Rates for pancreatic cancer in EU men aged 25-49 and 50-64 years declined, respectively, by 10% and 1.8%, while for those aged 65+ years increased by 1.3%. Rates fell for young women only (-3.4%). Over 1989-2021, about 5 million cancer deaths were avoided in the EU27 compared with peak rates in 1988.

Conclusion: Overall cancer mortality continues to fall in both sexes. However, specific focus is needed on pancreatic cancer, which shows a sizeable decline for young men only. Tobacco control remains a priority for the prevention of pancreatic and other tobacco-related cancers, which account for one-third of the total EU cancer deaths, especially in women, who showed less favourable trends.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.annonc.2021.01.006DOI Listing
April 2021

Trends in male breast cancer mortality: a global overview.

Authors:
Margherita Pizzato Greta Carioli Paola Bertuccio Matteo Malvezzi Fabio Levi Paolo Boffetta Eva Negri Carlo La Vecchia

Eur J Cancer Prev 2021 Jan 18. Epub 2021 Jan 18.

Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health Department of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences L. Sacco, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy Department of Epidemiology and Health Services Research, Centre for Primary Care and Public Health (Unisanté), University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy Stony Brook Cancer Center, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, USA.

Objectives: Recent trends in male breast cancer have been inadequately studied. We updated mortality trends in selected countries and regions worldwide using most recent available data and we predicted figures for 2020.

Methods: We extracted official death certification data for male breast cancer and population estimates from the WHO and the Pan American Health Organization databases, from 2000 to 2017. We computed age-standardized (world population) death rates for selected countries and regions worldwide. We used joinpoint regression analysis to identify significant changes in trends and to predict death numbers and rates for 2020.

Results: In 2015-2017, Central-Eastern Europe had a rate of 2.85/1 000 000, and Russia of 2.22, ranking among the highest. North-Western and Southern Europe, the European Union as a whole and the USA showed rates ranging between 1.5 and 2.0. Lower rates were observed in most Latin American countries, with values below 1.35/1 000 000, in Australia, 1.22, and Japan, 0.58. Between 2000-2004 and 2015-2017, age-adjusted death rates decreased between 10 and 40% in North-Western Europe, Russia, and the USA, and between 1.5 and 25% in the other areas under study, except Latin America (+0.8%). Except for Central-Eastern Europe, predicted rates for 2020 were favourable.

Conclusion: Advancements in management are likely the main drivers of the favourable trends in male breast cancer death rates over the last decades. Delayed diagnosis and limited access to effective care explain the higher mortality in some areas.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/CEJ.0000000000000651DOI Listing
January 2021

Mammographic breast density and characteristics of invasive breast cancer.

Authors:
M Pizzato G Carioli S Rosso R Zanetti C La Vecchia

Cancer Epidemiol 2021 02 26;70:101879. Epub 2020 Dec 26.

Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy.

Introduction: Inconclusive data exist on the association between breast density and breast cancer characteristics.

Materials And Methods: We conducted a case-only study on 667 invasive breast cancers, using data from the Piedmont Cancer Registry. We applied a multivariate logistic regression model to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of high breast density (Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System, BI-RADS 3-4) versus low (BI-RADS 1-2) in relation to histologic grade, pathological tumour size and lymph node status, histotype, estrogen and progesterone receptor, HER2 and Ki67 status. Histopathological data were assessed according to the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) Staging Manual guidelines. The model includes terms for age at diagnosis, education level, body mass index, reproductive factors, family history of breast cancer, smoking and diabetes.

Results: As regards histologic grade, compared to well differentiated tumours, the OR of high (versus low) breast density cases was 0.61 (95% CI 0.38-0.98) for moderately-poorly differentiated tumours. No other associations with hormonal and histopathological characteristics were observed.

Discussion: Our results indicate that low breast density is associated with moderately-poorly differentiated breast tumours.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.canep.2020.101879DOI Listing
February 2021

Cigarettes smoking and androgen receptor-positive breast cancer.

Authors:
Margherita Pizzato Greta Carioli Stefano Rosso Roberto Zanetti Eva Negri Carlo La Vecchia

Eur J Cancer Prev 2020 Dec 23;Publish Ahead of Print. Epub 2020 Dec 23.

Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan Piedmont Cancer Registry, A.O.U, Citta` della Salute e della Scienza di Torino Fondo Elena Moroni for Oncology, Turin Department of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy.

Objectives: Cigarette smoking is related to higher levels of circulating androgens, but its association with androgen receptor (AR) status is still unaddressed.

Methods: We analysed, with a case-only approach, smoking habits according to AR status in 112 cases of invasive female breast cancer, from the Piedmont Cancer Registry. We used a multivariate logistic regression model to estimate the odds ratio (OR) and the corresponding confidence interval (CI).

Results: The OR of AR-positive breast cancer (versus AR-negative) for ever smokers (versus never) was 2.85 (95% CI 1.02-7.96).

Conclusion: Smoking is related to AR-positive breast cancer.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/CEJ.0000000000000661DOI Listing
December 2020

Cancer mortality and predictions for 2020 in selected Australasian countries, Russia and Ukraine.

Authors:
Margherita Pizzato Greta Carioli Paola Bertuccio Matteo Malvezzi Fabio Levi Paolo Boffetta Eva Negri Carlo La Vecchia

Eur J Cancer Prev 2021 Jan;30(1):1-14

Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health.

Objectives: Predicted cancer mortality figures are useful for public health planning. We predicted cancer mortality rates in Israel, Hong Kong, Japan, the Philippines, Korea, Australia, Russia and Ukraine for the year 2020 using the most recent available data. We focused on breast cancer.

Methods: We obtained cancer death certification and population data from the WHO and the United Nations Population Division databases. We derived figures for 10 major cancer sites and total cancers over 1970-2017. We predicted numbers of deaths and age-standardized mortality rates for 2020 through joinpoint regression models. We calculated the number of avoided deaths from 1994-2020.

Results: Overall, total cancer mortality is predicted to decline. Russia had the highest all cancers rates in 2020, 151.9/100 000 men and 79.6 women; the Philippines had the lowest rate in men, 78.0/100 000, Korea in women, 47.5. Stomach cancer rates declined over the whole period in all countries considered, colorectal cancer since the late 1990s. Trends for pancreas were inconsistent. Predicted rates for lung and breast cancer were favourable; women from Hong Kong, Korea and Australia had lung cancer death rates higher than breast ones. Predicted rates for uterine, ovarian, prostate and bladder cancers and leukaemias were downward for most countries. Between 1994 and 2020, over 3.3 million cancer deaths were avoided in the considered countries, except for the Philippines where no reduction was observed.

Conclusion: Predicted cancer rates were lower than in the European Union and the USA, even though falls started later and were less marked.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/CEJ.0000000000000639DOI Listing
January 2021

Breast cancer mortality trends in Peruvian women.

Authors:
J Smith Torres-Roman Jose Fabian Martinez-Herrera Greta Carioli Jorge Ybaseta-Medina Bryan Valcarcel Joseph A Pinto Alfredo Aguilar Katherine A McGlynn Carlo La Vecchia

BMC Cancer 2020 Dec 1;20(1):1173. Epub 2020 Dec 1.

Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, Università degli Studi di Milano, 20133, Milan, Italy.

Background: Breast cancer (BC) is the most common malignancy in Latin American women, but with a wide variability with respect to their mortality. This study aims to estimate the mortality rates from BC in Peruvian women and to assess mortality trends over 15 years.

Methods: We calculated BC age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) per 100,000 women-years using the world standard SEGI population. We estimated joinpoint regression models for BC in Peru and its geographical areas. The spatial analysis was performed using the Moran's I statistic.

Results: In a 15-year period, Peru had a mortality rate of 9.97 per 100,000 women-years. The coastal region had the highest mortality rate (12.15 per 100,000 women-years), followed by the highlands region (4.71 per 100,000 women-years). In 2003, the highest ASMR for BC were in the provinces of Lima, Arequipa, and La Libertad (above 8.0 per 100,000 women-years), whereas in 2017, the highest ASMR were in Tumbes, Callao, and Moquegua (above 13.0 per women-years). The mortality trend for BC has been declining in the coastal region since 2005 (APC = - 1.35, p < 0.05), whereas the highlands region experienced an upward trend throughout the study period (APC = 4.26, p < 0.05). The rainforest region had a stable trend. Spatial analysis showed a Local Indicator of Spatial Association of 0.26 (p < 0.05).

Conclusion: We found regional differences in the mortality trends over 15 years. Although the coastal region experienced a downward trend, the highlands had an upward mortality trend in the entire study period. It is necessary to implement tailored public health interventions to reduce BC mortality in Peru.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12885-020-07671-xDOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7706041PMC
December 2020

Cancer mortality in the oldest old: a global overview.

Authors:
Dana Hashim Greta Carioli Matteo Malvezzi Paola Bertuccio Samuel Waxman Eva Negri Carlo La Vecchia Paolo Boffetta

Aging (Albany NY) 2020 Sep 3;12(17):16744-16758. Epub 2020 Sep 3.

Tisch Cancer Institute, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY 10029, USA.

Background: As a higher proportion of adults live beyond 85 years, their cancer burden is expected to increase. While trends among the oldest old are established for major epithelial cancers (breast, prostate, lung, and colorectal cancers), they are less studied for minor cancers. This study describes age trends of cancer mortality, with emphasis on individuals aged 85+ years.

Results: Overall cancer mortality peaked at 85 years old and decreased or stabilized for all countries except the USA, France, and Japan, in which mortality continued to increase after age 85 years. For most countries, cancers of the oesophagus, stomach, liver, and larynx have a similar flat trend patterns across all ages. Bladder and kidney cancers as well as non-Hodgkin lymphoma, multiple myeloma, and leukemia showed a decreasing pattern after 85 years for UK, Germany, Italy and Poland. Lung cancer peaked at 80 years, although the age-specific peak among women did not follow the same pattern among all countries. Breast and prostate cancers increased after 85 years.

Conclusion: Mortality stabilized or decreased after age 85, particularly for non-hormonal cancers. Whether this reflects a true biological levelling of mortality rates, or lower validity of cancer registration among the oldest old, remains open to discussion.

Methods: Completed death data were obtained from the World Health Organization (WHO) for eight countries (2000 to 2014). Age-specific mortality rates were calculated for each 5-year age group above age 64. Joinpoint regression models were used to identify significant changes in mortality trends by age.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.18632/aging.103503DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7521488PMC
September 2020

Risk factors for pancreas and lung neuroendocrine neoplasms: a case-control study.

Authors:
Luca Giraldi Alessia Vecchioni Greta Carioli Mirna Bilotta Stefano La Rosa Andrea Imperatori Marco Volante Maria Pia Brizzi Frediano Inzani Gianluigi Petrone Giovanni Schinzari Antonio Bianchi Stefano Margaritora Sergio Alfieri Carlo La Vecchia Stefania Boccia Guido Rindi

Endocrine 2021 Jan 31;71(1):233-241. Epub 2020 Aug 31.

Section of Anatomic Pathology, Department of Life Sciences and Public Health, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Roma, Italia.

Purpose: Neuroendocrine neoplasia (NEN) has been displaying an incremental trend along the last two decades. This phenomenon is poorly understood, and little information is available on risk factor for neuroendocrine neoplasia development. Aim of this work is to elucidate the role of potentially modifiable risk factors for pancreatic and pulmonary NEN.

Methods: We conducted a case-control study on 184 patients with NEN (100 pancreas and 84 lung) and 248 controls. The structured questionnaire included 84 queries on socio-demographic, behavioral, dietary and clinical information.

Results: Increased risk was associated with history of cancer ("other tumor", lung OR = 7.18; 95% CI: 2.55-20.20 and pancreas OR = 5.88; 95% CI: 2.43-14.22; "family history of tumor", lung OR = 2.66; 95% CI: 1.53-4.64 and pancreas OR = 1.94; 95% CI: 1.19-3.17; "family history of lung tumor", lung OR = 2.56; 95% CI: 1.05-6.24 and pancreas OR = 2.60; 95% CI: 1.13-5.95). Type 2 diabetes mellitus associated with an increased risk of pancreatic NEN (OR = 3.01; 95% CI: 1.15-7.89).

Conclusions: Besides site-specific risk factors, there is a significant link between neuroendocrine neoplasia and cancer in general, pointing to a shared cancer predisposition.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12020-020-02464-5DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7835148PMC
January 2021

The impact of selected risk factors among breast cancer molecular subtypes: a case-only study.

Authors:
Margherita Pizzato Greta Carioli Stefano Rosso Roberto Zanetti Carlo La Vecchia

Breast Cancer Res Treat 2020 Nov 26;184(1):213-220. Epub 2020 Aug 26.

Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, Università degli Studi di Milano, Via Augusto Vanzetti 5, 20133, Milano, Milan, Italy.

Purpose: Breast cancer (BC) risk factors have been differentially associated with BC subtypes, but quantification is still undefined. Therefore, we compared selected risk factors with BC subtypes, using a case-case approach.

Methods: We retrieved 1321 invasive female BCs from the Piedmont Cancer Registry. Through record linkage of clinical records, we obtained data on estrogen (Er) and progesterone (Pr) receptors, Ki67 and HER2+ status, BC family history, breast imaging reporting and data system (BI-RADS) density, reproductive risk factors and education. We defined BC subtypes as follows : luminal A (Er+ and/or Pr+ , HER2- , low Ki67), luminal BH- (Er+ and/or Pr + , HER2- , Ki67 high), luminal BH+ (Er+ and/or Pr + , HER2+), HER2+ (Er - , Pr - , HER2+), ) and triple negative (Er - , Pr - , HER2-). Using a multinomial regression model, we estimated the odds ratios (ORs) for selected BC risk factors considering luminal A as reference.

Results: For triple negative, the OR for BC family history was 1.83 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13-2.97). Compared to BI-RADS 1, for triple negative, the OR for BI-RADS 2 was 0.56 (95% CI 0.27-1.14) and for BI-RADS 3-4 was 0.37 (95% CI 0.15-0.88); for luminal BH +, the OR for BI-RADS 2 was 2.36 (95% CI 1.08-5.11). For triple negative, the OR for high education was 1.78 (95% CI 1.03-3.07), and for late menarche, the OR was 1.69 (95% CI 1.02-2.81). For luminal BH + , the OR for parous women was 0.56 (95% CI 0.34-0.92).

Conclusions: This study supported BC etiologic heterogeneity across subtypes, particularly for triple negative.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10549-020-05820-1DOI Listing
November 2020

Progress in cancer mortality, incidence, and survival: a global overview.

Authors:
Claudia Santucci Greta Carioli Paola Bertuccio Matteo Malvezzi Ugo Pastorino Paolo Boffetta Eva Negri Cristina Bosetti Carlo La Vecchia

Eur J Cancer Prev 2020 09;29(5):367-381

Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health.

Cancer mortality has declined over the last three decades in most high-income countries reflecting improvements in cancer prevention, diagnosis, and management. However, there are persisting and substantial differences in mortality, incidence, and survival worldwide. In order to provide an up-to-date overview of trends in mortality, incidence, and survival, we retrieved data from high-quality, population-based cancer registries for all cancers and 10 selected cancer sites in six high-income countries and the European Union. We computed age-standardized (world standard population) mortality and incidence rates, and applied joinpoint regression models. Mortality from all cancers and most common cancer sites has declined over the last 25 years, except for the pancreas and lung (in women). The patterns for incidence are less consistent between countries, except for a steady decrease in stomach cancer in both sexes and lung cancer in men. Survival for all cancers and the selected cancer sites increased in all countries, even if there is still a substantial variability. Although overall cancer death rates continue to decline, incidence rates have been levelling off among men and have been moderately increasing among women. These trends reflect changes in cancer risk factors, screening test use, diagnostic practices, and treatment advances. Many cancers can be prevented or treated effectively if they are diagnosed early. Population-based cancer incidence and mortality data can be used to focus efforts to decrease the cancer burden and regularly monitor progress towards cancer control goals.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/CEJ.0000000000000594DOI Listing
September 2020

Cohort Analysis of Epithelial Cancer Mortality Male-to-Female Sex Ratios in the European Union, USA, and Japan.

Authors:
Greta Carioli Paola Bertuccio Fabio Levi Paolo Boffetta Eva Negri Carlo La Vecchia Matteo Malvezzi

Int J Environ Res Public Health 2020 07 23;17(15). Epub 2020 Jul 23.

Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, Universitá degli Studi di Milano, 20133 Milan, Italy.

Objective: To illustrate trends in sex ratios in epithelial cancer mortality in the EU, USA, and Japan, with a focus on age-specific and cohort patterns.

Methods: We obtained certified deaths and resident populations from the World Health Organisation for the period of 1970-2014 for the USA, Japan, and the EU for 12 epithelial cancer sites. From these, we calculated both the age-specific and age-standardised male-to-female mortality sex ratios. We applied an age-period-cohort model to the sex ratios in order to disentangle the effects of age, period of death, and birth cohort.

Results: Age-standardised mortality sex ratios were found to be unfavourable to males, apart from thyroid cancer. The highest standardised rates were in laryngeal cancer: 7·7 in the 1970s in the USA, 17·4 in the 1980s in the EU, and 16·8 in the 2000s in Japan. Cohort patterns likely to be due to excess smoking (1890 cohort) and drinking (1940 cohort) in men were identified in the USA, and were present but less defined in the EU and Japan for the oral cavity, oesophagus, liver, pancreas, larynx, lung, bladder, and kidney.

Conclusion: Mortality sex ratio patterns are partly explained by the differences in exposure to known and avoidable risk factors. These are mostly tobacco, alcohol, and obesity/overweight, as well as other lifestyle-related factors.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17155311DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7432705PMC
July 2020

Childhood cancer mortality trends in Europe, 1990-2017, with focus on geographic differences.

Authors:
Paola Bertuccio Gianfranco Alicandro Matteo Malvezzi Greta Carioli Paolo Boffetta Fabio Levi Carlo La Vecchia Eva Negri

Cancer Epidemiol 2020 08 24;67:101768. Epub 2020 Jun 24.

Department of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences L. Sacco, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy.

Aim: To monitor trends in childhood cancer mortality in Europe.

Methods: We calculated age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 children (age 0-14 years) from 1990 to the last available calendar year, for all neoplasms and six main cancers in childhood, in selected European countries and geographic areas, plus the European Union (EU), using data from the World Health Organization database. We carried out a joinpoint regression analysis of mortality trends for all neoplasms, leukaemia and tumours of the nervous system. Results of the joinpoint regression were summarized through annual percent change (APC) for each identified linear segment, and weighted average APC (AAPC) over the whole period.

Results: From 1990 to 2015, childhood total cancer mortality rates dropped by 2.8% per year in the EU, to reach 2.6/100,000 in the latest available calendar years. The greatest declines were in central-eastern countries (AAPCs -3% to -4%). Recent rates ranged between 1.7 and 4.3 deaths/100,000, with the highest values in central-eastern Europe. Leukaemia mortality rates in the EU decreased from 1.6 to 0.6/100,000 in the latest calendar years (AAPC -4%). The deepest declines were registered in central-eastern countries, though they still showed the highest rates (0.9). The lowest leukaemia mortality rates were in northern-western Europe (0.5/100,000), but also in the Czech Republic and Poland. Southern European countries showed comparatively high rates (0.8). Nervous system tumours showed relatively modest falls (AAPC: -1.7% in the EU).

Conclusions: Childhood cancer mortality continued to decline steady in Europe, though geographic differences persist. Further efforts are required to fill the gap, by promoting widespread and rational adoption of currently available treatment protocols.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.canep.2020.101768DOI Listing
August 2020

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2020 with a focus on prostate cancer.

Authors:
G Carioli P Bertuccio P Boffetta F Levi C La Vecchia E Negri M Malvezzi

Ann Oncol 2020 05 19;31(5):650-658. Epub 2020 Apr 19.

Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, Universitá degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy.

Background: Current cancer mortality figures are important for disease management and resource allocation. We estimated mortality counts and rates for 2020 in the European Union (EU) and for its six most populous countries.

Materials And Methods: We obtained cancer death certification and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases for 1970-2015. We estimated projections to 2020 for 10 major cancer sites plus all neoplasms and calculated the number of avoided deaths over 1989-2020.

Results: Total cancer mortality rates in the EU are predicted to decline reaching 130.1/100 000 men (-5.4% since 2015) and 82.2 in women (-4.1%) in 2020. The predicted number of deaths will increase by 4.7% reaching 1 428 800 in 2020. In women, the upward lung cancer trend is predicted to continue with a rate in 2020 of 15.1/100 000 (higher than that for breast cancer, 13.5) while in men we predicted further falls. Pancreatic cancer rates are also increasing in women (+1.2%) but decreasing in men (-1.9%). In the EU, the prostate cancer predicted rate is 10.0/100 000, declining by 7.1% since 2015; decreases for this neoplasm are ∼8% at age 45-64, 14% at 65-74 and 75-84, and 6% at 85 and over. Poland is the only country with an increasing prostate cancer trend (+18%). Mortality rates for other cancers are predicted to decline further. Over 1989-2020, we estimated over 5 million avoided total cancer deaths and over 400 000 for prostate cancer.

Conclusion: Cancer mortality predictions for 2020 in the EU are favourable with a greater decline in men. The number of deaths continue to rise due to population ageing. Due to the persistent amount of predicted lung (and other tobacco-related) cancer deaths, tobacco control remains a public health priority, especially for women. Favourable trends for prostate cancer are largely attributable to continuing therapeutic improvements along with early diagnosis.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.annonc.2020.02.009DOI Listing
May 2020

Global trends in oral and pharyngeal cancer incidence and mortality.

Authors:
Cristina Bosetti Greta Carioli Claudia Santucci Paola Bertuccio Silvano Gallus Werner Garavello Eva Negri Carlo La Vecchia

Int J Cancer 2020 08 30;147(4):1040-1049. Epub 2020 Jan 30.

Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy.

To provide an up-to-date overview of recent trends in mortality from oral and pharyngeal cancer, we analyzed death certification data for 61 countries worldwide provided by the World Health Organization in 2010-2015, and, for selected most populous countries, over the period 1970-2016. For 12 largest countries, we analyzed incidence derived from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents in 1960-2012 for all oral and pharyngeal cancers and by subsites. In 2015, male age-standardized (world population) death rates per 100,000 were 5.03 in the European Union (EU), 8.33 in the Russian Federation, 2.53 in the United States (USA), and 3.04 in Japan; corresponding rates in women were 1.23, 1.23, 0.82, and 0.76. Male mortality decreased over the last decades in several European countries, with earlier and sharper declines in southern Europe; conversely, mortality was still increasing in a few eastern European countries and the United Kingdom. Mortality in men also decreased in Argentina, Australia, and Hong Kong, while it leveled off over more recent calendar years in Brazil, Japan, Mexico, the Republic of Korea, as well as in Australia and the USA. Female mortality slightly rose in various European countries. Overall incidence trends in the largest countries were broadly consistent with mortality ones, but oropharyngeal cancer incidence rose in many countries. Changes in tobacco and alcohol exposure in men over the last decades likely explain the favorable trends in oral and pharyngeal cancer mortality and incidence observed in selected countries worldwide, while increased human papillomavirus infection is likely responsible for the rise in oropharyngeal cancer incidence.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ijc.32871DOI Listing
August 2020

Cancer mortality predictions for 2019 in Latin America.

Authors:
Greta Carioli Paola Bertuccio Matteo Malvezzi Teresa Rodriguez Fabio Levi Paolo Boffetta Carlo La Vecchia Eva Negri

Int J Cancer 2020 08 27;147(3):619-632. Epub 2019 Nov 27.

Department of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences, L. Sacco, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy.

We estimated mortality figures for 2019 in seven Latin American countries, with focus on breast cancer. We retrieved cancer death certification and population data from the WHO and PAHO databases. We obtained mortality statistics for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Mexico and Venezuela for 1970-2015. We predicted current death numbers and age-standardised (world population) mortality rates using joinpoint regression models. Total cancer mortality is predicted to decline in all countries and both sexes, except Argentinian women. Cuba had the highest all cancer rates for 2019, 136.9/100,000 men and 90.4 women, while Mexico showed the lowest ones, 63.8/100,000 men and 61.9 women. Stomach cancer showed favourable trends over the whole period, while colorectal cancer only recently. Lung cancer rates declined in men, while in women they decreased slightly over the most recent years, only. In Cuban women, lung cancer rates overtook breast cancer ones. Breast cancer showed overall favourable trends, but rates are rising in young women. Prostate and uterine cancer had favourable trends. Pancreas, ovary, bladder and leukaemias showed slightly decreasing trends. Between 1990 and 2019, mortality from all neoplasms is predicted to fall by about 18% in Argentina, 26% in Chile, 14% in Colombia, 17% in Mexico and 13% in Venezuela, corresponding to almost 0.5 million avoided cancer deaths. No decline was observed in Brazil and Cuba. Of concern, the persisting high rates of (cervix) uterus cancer, the high lung cancer rates in Cuba, the possible increases in breast cancer in young women, and the lack of overall declines in Brazil, Cuba and Venezuelan men.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ijc.32749DOI Listing
August 2020

Reply to: "Global trends in mortality from intrahepatic and extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma".

Authors:
Paola Bertuccio Matteo Malvezzi Greta Carioli Dana Hashim Paolo Boffetta Hashem B El-Serag Carlo La Vecchia Eva Negri

J Hepatol 2019 12 26;71(6):1262-1263. Epub 2019 Sep 26.

Department of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhep.2019.08.033DOI Listing
December 2019

Cancer mortality in Europe in 2015 and an overview of trends since 1990.

Authors:
P Bertuccio G Alicandro M Malvezzi G Carioli P Boffetta F Levi C La Vecchia E Negri

Ann Oncol 2019 08;30(8):1356-1369

Departments of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan.

Background: Cancer mortality in Europe has been decreasing since the late 1980s or 1990s in some countries with different patterns in many areas. In this study, we updated trends in cancer mortality in Europe.

Materials And Methods: We extracted data from the World Health Organization mortality database for 24 cancer sites, 36 European countries and the European Union (EU) as a whole over the 1990-2017 period. We computed age-standardized death rates per 100 000 person-years, and we carried out a joinpoint regression analysis of mortality trends from all cancers and selected major neoplasms. The estimated annual percent change (APC) for each identified linear segment, and the weighted average APC (AAPC) over the entire study period were provided as summary measures of the changes in rates over the time period.

Results: In 2015, the age-standardized mortality rates from all cancers in the EU were 137.5 deaths per 100 000 in men and 85.7 in women. Eastern European countries showed the highest rates with values over 150 deaths per 100 000 in men and over 100 deaths per 100 000 in women. Mortality from all cancers in the EU declined annually by 1.5% in men since 2006 and by 0.8% in women since 2007. Most cancer sites showed decreasing trends, with steady declines over the whole period for cancers of stomach, intestines, lung in men, breast and prostate. Unfavourable mortality trends persisted for cancers of liver, lung in women, pancreas, besides skin and kidney in men.

Conclusions: The downward trends in total cancer mortality in Europe still continue over the last decade. However, the trends were less favourable in most eastern European countries. Tobacco control in men (but not in women), improvements in diagnosis and therapy were the main underlying factors of these trends.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/annonc/mdz179DOI Listing
August 2019

Cancer mortality in the elderly in 11 countries worldwide, 1970-2015.

Authors:
G Carioli M Malvezzi P Bertuccio D Hashim S Waxman E Negri P Boffetta C La Vecchia

Ann Oncol 2019 08;30(8):1344-1355

Departments of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, Universitá degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy. Electronic address:

Background: Population ageing results in an increasing cancer burden in the elderly. We aimed to evaluate time-trends in cancer mortality for adults aged 65 and over for 17 major cancer types and all cancers combined in 11 countries worldwide over the period 1970-2015.

Materials And Methods: We obtained cancer death certification and population figures from the WHO and PAHO databases. We computed age-standardised (world standard population) rates for individuals aged 65 and over, and applied joinpoint regression models.

Results: Age-standardised mortality rates for all cancers combined showed a heterogeneous, but widespread decline. Lung cancer mortality rates have been decreasing among men, and increasing among women. Pancreatic cancer had unfavourable trends in all countries for both sexes. Despite variability across countries, other tobacco-related cancers (except kidney) showed overall favourable trends, except in Poland and Russia. Age-standardised mortality rates from stomach cancer have been declining in all countries for both sexes. Colorectal mortality has been declining, except in Poland and Russia. Liver cancer mortality increased in all countries, except in Japan, France and Italy, which had the highest rates in the past. Breast cancer mortality decreased for most countries, except for Japan, Poland and Russia. Trends for age-standardised uterine cancer rates in the USA, Canada and the UK were increasing over the last decade. Ovarian cancer rates showed declines in most countries. With the exception of Russia, prostate cancer rates showed overall declines. Lymphoid neoplasms rates have been declining in both sexes, except in Poland and Russia.

Conclusion: Over the last decades, age-standardised cancer mortality in the elderly has been decreasing in major countries worldwide and for major cancer sites, with the major exception of lung and uterine cancer in women and liver, pancreatic and kidney cancers in both sexes. Cancer mortality for the elderly in central and eastern Europe remains comparatively high.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/annonc/mdz178DOI Listing
August 2019

Reply to the letter to the editor 'European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2019 with focus on breast cancer, by Malvezzi M et al' by Marsden and Hamoda, On behalf of the British Menopause Society Medical Advisory Council.

Authors:
M Malvezzi G Carioli P Bertuccio P Boffetta F Levi C La Vecchia E Negri

Ann Oncol 2019 08;30(8):1394

Biomedical and Clinical Sciences, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/annonc/mdz151DOI Listing
August 2019

Global trends in mortality from intrahepatic and extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.

Authors:
Paola Bertuccio Matteo Malvezzi Greta Carioli Dana Hashim Paolo Boffetta Hashem B El-Serag Carlo La Vecchia Eva Negri

J Hepatol 2019 07 23;71(1):104-114. Epub 2019 Mar 23.

Department of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy.

Background & Aims: Intrahepatic (ICC) and extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ECC) have rarely been studied individually, probably due to difficulties in their diagnosis and certification. Mortality trends from these 2 neoplasms have been inconsistent over the last decades. The aim of this study was to analyze worldwide trends in mortality from ICC and ECC in selected countries.

Methods: We extracted death certification data for ICC and ECC, and population estimates from the World Health Organization and Pan American Health Organization databases for 32 selected countries from Europe, the Americas, and Australasia from 1995 to 2016. We computed age-standardized (world population) mortality rates from ICC and ECC, and performed joinpoint regression analysis.

Results: Mortality rates from ICC increased in all countries considered, with a levelling off over recent years in Germany (women), Italy (men), Argentina (men), the USA (men), Hong Kong (men), and Japan (both sexes). The highest rates in 2010-2014 (1.5-2.5/100,000 in men and 1.2-1.7/100,000 in women) were registered in Hong Kong, France, Austria, Spain, the UK, and Australia. The lowest rates (0.2-0.6/100,000 in both sexes) were registered in Latin American and eastern European countries. Mortality from ECC decreased in most of the countries considered, with rates below 1/100,000 in both sexes between 2010 and 2014, with the only exception being Japan (2.8/100,000 in men and 1.4/100,000 in women).

Conclusions: Increasing mortality from ICC was observed globally, due to trends in risk factors and possibly, in part, due to better disease classification. Mortality from ECC levelled off or decreased, most likely following the increased use of laparoscopic cholecystectomy.

Lay Summary: Biliary tract cancers include intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) and extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ECC), however there are some differences in their risk factors. Consequently, the distinction between ICC and ECC is important. Over the last few decades, mortality from ICC has tended to rise in several areas of the world, following the increased prevalence of its major risk factors. In contrast, mortality from ECC tended to decrease in most countries, following the increased use of laparoscopic cholecystectomy.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhep.2019.03.013DOI Listing
July 2019

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2019 with focus on breast cancer.

Authors:
M Malvezzi G Carioli P Bertuccio P Boffetta F Levi C La Vecchia E Negri

Ann Oncol 2019 05;30(5):781-787

Biomedical and Clinical Sciences, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy.

Background: To overcome the lag with which cancer statistics become available, we predicted numbers of deaths and rates from all cancers and selected cancer sites for 2019 in the European Union (EU).

Materials And Methods: We retrieved cancer death certifications and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases for 1970-2014. We obtained estimates for 2019 with a linear regression on number of deaths over the most recent trend period identified by a logarithmic Poisson joinpoint regression model. We calculated the number of avoided deaths over the period 1989-2019.

Results: We estimated about 1 410 000 cancer deaths in the EU for 2019, corresponding to age-standardized rates of 130.9/100 000 men (-5.9% since 2014) and 82.9 women (-3.6%). Lung cancer trends in women are predicted to increase 4.4% between 2014 and 2019, reaching a rate of 14.8. The projected rate for breast cancer was 13.4. Favourable trends for major neoplasms are predicted to continue, except for pancreatic cancer. Trends in breast cancer mortality were favourable in all six countries considered, except Poland. The falls were largest in women 50-69 (-16.4%), i.e. the age group covered by screening, but also seen at age 20-49 (-13.8%), while more modest at age 70-79 (-6.1%). As compared to the peak rate in 1988, over 5 million cancer deaths have been avoided in the EU over the 1989-2019 period. Of these, 440 000 were breast cancer deaths.

Conclusion: Between 2014 and 2019, cancer mortality will continue to fall in both sexes. Breast cancer rates will fall steadily, with about 35% decline in rates over the last three decades. This is likely due to reduced hormone replacement therapy use, improvements in screening, early diagnosis and treatment. Due to population ageing, however, the number of breast cancer deaths is not declining.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/annonc/mdz051DOI Listing
May 2019

Trends and geographic pattern of stomach cancer mortality in Peru.

Authors:
Eloy F Ruiz J Smith Torres-Roman Sebastian A Servan Jose F Martinez-Herrera Miguel A Arce-Huamani Greta Carioli Carlo La Vecchia

Cancer Epidemiol 2019 02 3;58:193-198. Epub 2018 Dec 3.

Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, Universita degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy.

Background: Stomach cancer mortality rates in South America are among the highest in the world. In Peru, stomach cancer has the highest absolute number of cancer deaths in both sexes combined. We estimated mortality rates for stomach cancer in Peru by sex and geographical region between 2008 and 2015.

Methods: We obtained death data for stomach cancer from the Peruvian Ministry of Health database. We estimated the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) per 100,000 persons using the direct method and the world standard population.

Results: A total of 25,020 deaths from stomach cancer were identified in the study period. At national level, stomach cancer mortality rates (per 100,000 population) for men ranged from 9.8 in 2008 to 8.8 in 2015 with a percent change of -16%, and for women from 8.8 in 2008 to 7.7 in 2015 with a percent change of -16.8%. The highlands had the highest mortality rates overall, mainly in Huancavelica and Huánuco. The rainforest had the lowest rates and the highest decline in stomach cancer ASMRs. The coast displayed intermediate rates overall.

Conclusions: Within the study period, mortality rates from stomach cancer in Peru declined by 16%. The highlands had the highest mortality rates as compared to those from the coast or rainforest region. These geographical differences in mortality could reflect a different distribution in stomach cancer risk factors as the prevalence of H. pylori, poor dietary habits, low socioeconomic background of the Andean population and the lack of a decentralized health system.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.canep.2018.10.018DOI Listing
February 2019

Cancer mortality and predictions for 2018 in selected Australasian countries and Russia.

Authors:
G Carioli M Malvezzi P Bertuccio F Levi P Boffetta E Negri C La Vecchia

Ann Oncol 2019 01;30(1):132-142

Departments of Clinical Sciences and Community Health. Electronic address:

Background: Predicted cancer mortality figures and rates are useful for public health planning.

Materials And Methods: We retrieved cancer death certification data for 10 major cancer sites and total cancers from the World Health Organization (WHO) database and population data from WHO and United Nations Population Division databases. We obtained figures for Russia, Israel, Hong Kong, Japan, the Philippines, Korea, and Australia in 1970-2015. We predicted numbers of deaths by age group and age-standardized rates (world population) for 2018 by applying a linear regression to mortality data of each age group over the most recent trend segment identified by a joinpoint regression model.

Results: Russia had the highest predicted total cancer mortality rates, 158.5/100 000 men and 84.1/100 000 women. Men in the Philippines showed the lowest rates for 2018 (84.6/100 000) and Korean males the most favourable predicted fall (21% between 2012 and 2018). Women in Korea had the lowest total cancer predicted rate (52.5/100 000). Between 1993 and 2018, i.e. by applying the 1993 rates to populations in subsequent years, a substantial number of cancer deaths was avoided in Russia (1 000 000 deaths, 821 000 in men and 179 000 in women), Israel (40 000 deaths, 21 000 in men and 19 000 in women), Hong Kong (63 000 deaths, 40 000 in men and 23 000 in women), Japan (651 000 deaths, 473 000 in men and 178 000 in women), Korea (327 000 deaths, 250 000 in men and 77 000 in women), and Australia (181 000 deaths, 125 000 in men and 56 000 in women). No appreciable reduction in cancer deaths was found in the Philippines.

Conclusion: Overall, we predicted falls in cancer mortality. However, these are less marked and later compared with the European Union and United States. Substantial numbers of deaths were avoided in all countries considered except the Philippines. Lung cancer mortality remains exceedingly high in Russian men, despite recent falls.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/annonc/mdy489DOI Listing
January 2019

Relation between mortality trends of cardiovascular diseases and selected cancers in the European Union, in 1970-2017. Focus on cohort and period effects.

Authors:
M Malvezzi G Carioli P Bertuccio E Negri C La Vecchia

Eur J Cancer 2018 11 17;103:341-355. Epub 2018 Jul 17.

Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, Universitá Degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy. Electronic address:

Aim: To characterise mortality trends from major non-communicable diseases in the European Union (EU) analysing data from the World Health Organization (WHO) Mortality Database.

Methods: We obtained EU population and death certification data for major non-communicable diseases, i.e. seven cancer sites (stomach, intestine, pancreas, lung, breast, prostate and haematopoietic), total cancers, coronary heart diseases (CHDs) and cerebrovascular diseases (CVDs) from the WHO Mortality Database over the 1970 and 2012 period. We computed age-standardised rates (world standard population) and applied joinpoint regression models to identify temporal trends and age period cohort (APC) models to disentangle the effects of age, period of death and cohort of birth on mortality.

Results: In 2012, 2.4 million deaths were recorded in the EU (1.3 million from cancers and 1.1 million from CHD and CVD combined). Over the last decade, mortality from cancer fell by 14% in men and 8% in women, resulting in age-standardised rates of 144 and 88/100,000 persons, respectively, in 2012. The only exceptions to the general downward trends were pancreatic cancer and female lung cancer. Both cardiovascular diseases mortality fell over 35% in both sexes with rates of 60 and 28/100,000 for CHD, and of 30 and 23/100,000 for CVD, in men and women, respectively, in 2012.

Conclusions: Overall trends in mortality rates from non-communicable diseases in the EU were favourable, and the joinpoint and APC models indicated these trends are likely to continue in the near future. Lack of progress in tobacco-related mortality in women underlines the importance of female-specific anti-tobacco policies.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejca.2018.06.018DOI Listing
November 2018

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2018 with focus on colorectal cancer.

Authors:
M Malvezzi G Carioli P Bertuccio P Boffetta F Levi C La Vecchia E Negri

Ann Oncol 2018 04;29(4):1016-1022

Department of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy.

Background: We projected cancer mortality statistics for 2018 for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries, using the most recent available data. We focused on colorectal cancer.

Materials And Methods: We obtained cancer death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, ovary, prostate, bladder, leukaemia, and total cancers from the World Health Organisation database and projected population data from Eurostat. We derived figures for France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the UK, and the EU in 1970-2012. We predicted death numbers by age group and age-standardized (world population) rates for 2018 through joinpoint regression models.

Results: EU total cancer mortality rates are predicted to decline by 10.3% in men between 2012 and 2018, reaching a predicted rate of 128.9/100 000, and by 5.0% in women with a rate of 83.6. The predicted total number of cancer deaths is 1 382 000 when compared with 1 333 362 in 2012 (+3.6%). We confirmed a further fall in male lung cancer, but an unfavourable trend in females, with a rate of 14.7/100 000 for 2018 (13.9 in 2012, +5.8%) and 94 500 expected deaths, higher than the rate of 13.7 and 92 700 deaths from breast cancer. Colorectal cancer predicted rates are 15.8/100 000 men (-6.7%) and 9.2 in women (-7.5%); declines are expected in all age groups. Pancreatic cancer is stable in men, but in women it rose +2.8% since 2012. Ovarian, uterine and bladder cancer rates are predicted to decline further. In 2018 alone, about 392 300 cancer deaths were avoided compared with peak rates in the late 1980s.

Conclusion: We predicted continuing falls in mortality rates from major cancer sites in the EU and its major countries to 2018. Exceptions are pancreatic cancer and lung cancer in women. Improved treatment and-above age 50 years-organized screening may account for recent favourable colorectal cancer trends.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/annonc/mdy033DOI Listing
April 2018

Mediterranean Diet and Breast Cancer Risk.

Authors:
Federica Turati Greta Carioli Francesca Bravi Monica Ferraroni Diego Serraino Maurizio Montella Attilio Giacosa Federica Toffolutti Eva Negri Fabio Levi Carlo La Vecchia

Nutrients 2018 Mar 8;10(3). Epub 2018 Mar 8.

Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, Università degli Studi di Milano, 20133 Milan, Italy.

The Mediterranean diet has been related to a reduced risk of several common cancers but its role on breast cancer has not been quantified yet. We investigated the association between adherence to the Mediterranean diet and breast cancer risk by means of a hospital-based case-control study conducted in Italy and Switzerland. 3034 breast cancer cases and 3392 controls admitted to the same network of hospitals for acute, non-neoplastic and non-gynaecologic diseases were studied. Adherence to the Mediterranean diet was quantitatively measured through a Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS), summarizing the major characteristics of the Mediterranean dietary pattern and ranging from 0 (lowest adherence) to 9 (highest adherence). We estimated the odds ratios (ORs) of breast cancer for the MDS using multiple logistic regression models, adjusting for several covariates. Compared to a MDS of 0-3, the ORs for breast cancer were 0.86 (95% confidence interval, CI, 0.76-0.98) for a MDS of 4-5 and 0.82 (95% CI, 0.71-0.95) for a MDS of 6-9 ( for trend = 0.008). The exclusion of the ethanol component from the MDS did not materially modify the ORs (e.g., OR = 0.81, 95% CI, 0.70-0.95, for MDS ≥ 6). Results were similar in pre- and post-menopausal women. Adherence to the Mediterranean diet was associated with a reduced breast cancer risk.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/nu10030326DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5872744PMC
March 2018

Management and Survival of Pleural Mesothelioma: A Record Linkage Study.

Authors:
Greta Carioli Martina Bonifazi Marta Rossi Alberto Zambelli Matteo Franchi Carlo Zocchetti Stefano Gasparini Giovanni Corrao Carlo La Vecchia Eva Negri

Respiration 2018;95(6):405-413. Epub 2018 Feb 8.

Department of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences, Universitá degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy.

Background: Pleural mesothelioma (PM) is a rare, highly lethal tumor. A definite consensus on its management has yet to be established.

Objectives: To assess management, overall survival (OS), and their predictors in a cohort of patients from Lombardy, the largest Italian region (about 10 million inhabitants).

Methods: Through a record linkage between Lombardy health care administrative databases, we identified patients diagnosed with PM in 2006-2011 without history of cancer, evaluating their management. OS from PM diagnosis was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Predictors of OS and of treatment were assessed using Cox regression models with time-dependent covariates when appropriate.

Results: Out of 1,326 patients, 754 (56.9%) received treatment for PM: 205 (15.5%) underwent surgery, and 696 (52.5%) used chemotherapy. Surgery was spread across several hospitals, and most patients diagnosed in nonspecialized centers (70%) underwent surgery in the same centers. Age at diagnosis was a strong inverse determinant of surgery. Determinants of receiving chemotherapy were younger age, a more recent first diagnosis, and first diagnosis in a specialized center. OS was 45.4% at 1 year, 24.8% at 2 years, and 9.6% at 5 years (median 11 months). OS decreased with age, and was higher for those who underwent surgery, but not for those treated with chemotherapy.

Conclusions: Management of PM varied widely in clinical practice, and significant predictors of treatment were younger age and recent diagnosis, though a high proportion of patients were not treated. Patients were treated in various hospitals, indicating the importance of concentrating serious rare neoplasms in Comprehensive Cancer Centers (as recognized by the Italian Health Ministry).
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1159/000486578DOI Listing
November 2018

Trends and predictions to 2020 in breast cancer mortality: Americas and Australasia.

Authors:
Greta Carioli Matteo Malvezzi Teresa Rodriguez Paola Bertuccio Eva Negri Carlo La Vecchia

Breast 2018 Feb 13;37:163-169. Epub 2017 Dec 13.

Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy.

Objectives: We considered trends in breast cancer mortality for 12 American and 8 Australasian countries during 1970-2014, and predicted rates for 2020.

Materials And Methods: We obtained official death certification data for breast cancer and population figures from the World Health Organization, Pan American Health Organization and United Nations databases. We derived age-standardized rates (world standard population), and predictions for 2020 using joinpoint regression.

Results: Breast cancer mortality trends were favourable in North America and Oceania, and a further 10% reduction in their overall rates is predicted for 2020, to reach values of 11-12/100,000 women, i.e. about 50% lower than their top rates in the later 1980's. Hong Kong, Japan and Korea did not show appreciable trends, but their rates remained below 10/100,000. Mexico, Chile, Colombia, Brazil also had stable rates, below or around 10/100,000. Breast cancer mortality was higher in Argentina, Cuba and Venezuela, and only Argentina showed some favourable trends over recent years, and predictions to 2020 around 16/100,000. Trends and predictions were less favourable in Israel, New Zealand, and the Philippines than in most other countries with predicted rates in 2020 between 13 and 16/100,000.

Conclusion: In several high-income countries, the fall in breast cancer mortality, due to improved treatment and diagnosis, has been the major success in the management of any common cancer over the last three decades. There are, however, persistent disparities in the global decline in breast cancer, which call for urgent management improvements in several areas of the world, particularly in middle-income countries.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.breast.2017.12.004DOI Listing
February 2018

Trends and predictions to 2020 in breast cancer mortality in Europe.

Authors:
Greta Carioli Matteo Malvezzi Teresa Rodriguez Paola Bertuccio Eva Negri Carlo La Vecchia

Breast 2017 Dec 4;36:89-95. Epub 2017 Oct 4.

Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy.

Objectives: We analyzed trends in mortality from breast cancer in women in 36 European countries and the European Union (EU) over the period 1970-2014, and predicted numbers of deaths and rates to 2020.

Materials And Methods: We derived breast cancer death certification data and population figures from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases. We obtained 2020 estimates using a joinpoint regression model.

Results: Overall, EU breast cancer mortality rates (world standard) declined from 17.9/100,000 in 2002 to 15.2 in 2012. The predicted 2020 rate is 13.4/100,000. The falls were largest in young women (20-49 years, -22% between 2002 and 2012). Within the EU, declines were larger in the United Kingdom (UK) and other northern and western European countries than in most central and eastern Europe. The UK has the second lowest predicted breast cancer mortality rate in 2020 (after Spain), starting from the highest one in 1970. Breast cancer mortality is predicted to rise in Poland, where the predicted 2020 rate is 15.3/100,000. We estimated that about 32,500 breast cancer deaths will be avoided in 2020 in the EU as compared to the peak rate of 1989, and a total of 475,000 breast cancer deaths over the period 1990-2020.

Conclusion: The overall favourable breast cancer mortality trends are mainly due to a succession of improvements in the management and treatment of breast cancer, though early diagnosis and screening played a role, too. Improving breast cancer management in central and eastern Europe is a priority.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.breast.2017.06.003DOI Listing
December 2017

Cancer mortality predictions for 2017 in Latin America.

Authors:
G Carioli C La Vecchia P Bertuccio T Rodriguez F Levi P Boffetta E Negri M Malvezzi

Ann Oncol 2017 Sep;28(9):2286-2297

Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, Universitá degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy.

Background: From most recent available data, we predicted cancer mortality statistics in selected Latin American countries for the year 2017, with focus on lung cancer.

Materials And Methods: We obtained death certification data from the World Health Organization and population data from the Pan American Health Organization database for all neoplasms and selected cancer sites. We derived figures for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Mexico and Venezuela. Using a logarithmic Poisson count data joinpoint model, we estimated number of deaths and age-standardized (world population) mortality rates in 2017.

Results: Total cancer mortality rates are predicted to decline in all countries. The highest mortality rates for 2017 are in Cuba, i.e. 132.3/100 000 men and 93.3/100 000 women. Mexico had the lowest predicted rates, 64.7/100 000 men and 60.6/100 000 women. In contrast, the total number of cancer deaths is expected to rise due to population ageing and growth. Men showed declines in lung cancer trends in all countries and age groups considered, while only Colombian and Mexican women had downward trends. Stomach and (cervix) uteri rates are predicted to continue their declines, though mortality from these neoplasms remains comparatively high. Colorectal, breast and prostate cancer rates were predicted to decline moderately, as well as leukaemias. There was no clear pattern for pancreatic cancer. Between 1990 and 2017 about 420 000 cancer deaths were avoided in 5 of the 7 countries, no progress was observed in Brazil and Cuba.

Conclusion: Cancer mortality rates for 2017 in seven selected Latin American countries are predicted to decline, though there was appreciable variability across countries. Mortality from major cancers-including lung and prostate-and all cancers remains comparatively high in Cuba, indicating the need for improved prevention and management.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/annonc/mdx301DOI Listing
September 2017