Publications by authors named "Emanuele Eccel"

5 Publications

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Climate change and anthropogenic food manipulation interact in shifting the distribution of a large herbivore at its altitudinal range limit.

Sci Rep 2021 Apr 7;11(1):7600. Epub 2021 Apr 7.

Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.

Ungulates in alpine ecosystems are constrained by winter harshness through resource limitation and direct mortality from weather extremes. However, little empirical evidence has definitively established how current climate change and other anthropogenic modifications of resource availability affect ungulate winter distribution, especially at their range limits. Here, we used a combination of historical (1997-2002) and contemporary (2012-2015) Eurasian roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) relocation datasets that span changes in snowpack characteristics and two levels of supplemental feeding to compare and forecast probability of space use at the species' altitudinal range limit. Scarcer snow cover in the contemporary period interacted with the augmented feeding site distribution to increase the elevation of winter range limits, and we predict this trend will continue under climate change. Moreover, roe deer have shifted from historically using feeding sites primarily under deep snow conditions to contemporarily using them under a wider range of snow conditions as their availability has increased. Combined with scarcer snow cover during December, January, and April, this trend has reduced inter-annual variability in space use patterns in these months. These spatial responses to climate- and artificial resource-provisioning shifts evidence the importance of these changing factors in shaping large herbivore spatial distribution and, consequently, ecosystem dynamics.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-86720-2DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8027592PMC
April 2021

Anticipating (the) nature: The future in environmental science, introduction to the virtual special issue.

Sci Total Environ 2017 Dec 8;609:1566-1568. Epub 2017 Aug 8.

IASMA Research and Innovation Centre - Fondazione Edmund Mach, via E. Mach 1, S. Michele all'Adige 38010, TN, Italy.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.07.129DOI Listing
December 2017

Increasing the robustness of phenological models for Vitis vinifera cv. Chardonnay.

Int J Biometeorol 2010 May 25;54(3):255-67. Epub 2009 Nov 25.

IASMA Research and Innovation Centre - Fondazione Edmund Mach, Environment and Natural Resources Area, Via E. Mach, 38010 San Michele all'Adige, Trento, Italy.

Phenological models are important tools for planning viticultural practices in the short term and for projecting the impact of climate change on grapevine (Vitis vinifera) in the long term. However, the difficulties in obtaining phenological models which provide accurate predictions on a regional scale prevent them from being exploited to their full potential. The aim of this work was to obtain a robust phenological model for V. vinifera cv. Chardonnay. During calibration of the sub-models for budburst, flowering and veraison we implemented a series of measures to prevent overfitting and to give greater physiological meaning to the models. Among these were the use of experimental information on the response of Chardonnay to forcing temperatures, restriction of parameter space into physiologically meaningful limits prior to calibration, and simplification of the previously selected sub-models. The resulting process-based model had good internal validity and a good level of accuracy in predicting phenological events from external datasets. Model performance was especially high for the prediction of flowering and veraison, and comparison with other models confirmed it as a better predictor of phenology, even in extremely warm years. The modelling study highlighted a different phenological behaviour at the only mountain station, Cembra. We hypothesised that phenotypical plasticity could lead to growth rates adapting to a lower mean temperature, a mechanism not usually accounted for by phenological models.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00484-009-0277-5DOI Listing
May 2010

Risk of spring frost to apple production under future climate scenarios: the role of phenological acclimation.

Int J Biometeorol 2009 May 5;53(3):273-86. Epub 2009 Mar 5.

Research Centre, E. Mach Foundation, Istituto Agrario di S. Michele, Via E. Mach, 1-38010, San Michele all'Adige, TN, Italy.

In the context of global warming, the general trend towards earlier flowering dates of many temperate tree species is likely to result in an increased risk of damage from exposure to frost. To test this hypothesis, a phenological model of apple flowering was applied to a temperature series from two locations in an important area for apple production in Europe (Trentino, Italy). Two simulated 50-year climatic projections (A2 and B2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change--Special Report on Emission Scenarios) from the HadCM3 general circulation model were statistically downscaled to the two sites. Hourly temperature records over a 40-year period were used as the reference for past climate. In the phenological model, the heat requirement (degree hours) for flowering was parameterized using two approaches; static (constant over time) and dynamic (climate dependent). Parameterisation took into account the trees' adaptation to changing temperatures based on either past instrumental records or the downscaled outputs from the climatic simulations. Flowering dates for the past 40 years and simulated flowering dates for the next 50 years were used in the model. A significant trend towards earlier flowering was clearly detected in the past. This negative trend was also apparent in the simulated data. However, the significance was less apparent when the "dynamic" setting for the degree hours requirement was used in the model. The number of frost episodes and flowering dates, on an annual basis, were graphed to assess the risk of spring frost. Risk analysis confirmed a lower risk of exposure to frost at present than in the past, and probably either constant or a slightly lower risk in future, especially given that physiological processes are expected to acclimate to higher temperatures.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00484-009-0213-8DOI Listing
May 2009

Phenological models for blooming of apple in a mountainous region.

Int J Biometeorol 2006 Sep 15;51(1):1-16. Epub 2006 Aug 15.

Department of Natural Resources, IASMA Research Centre, Via Mach 1, San Michele, 38010, Italy.

Six phenological series were available for 'Golden Delicious' apple blooming at six sites in Trentino, an alpine fruit-growing region. Several models were tested to predict flowering dates, all involving a "chilling and forcing" approach. In many cases, application of the models to different climatic conditions results in low accuracy of prediction of flowering date. The aim of this work is to develop a model with more general validity, starting from the six available series, and to test it against five other phenological series outside the original area of model development. A modified version of the "Utah" model was the approach that performed best. In fact, an algorithm using "chill units" for rest completion and a thermal sum for growing-degree-hours (GDH), whose efficiency changes over time depending on the fraction of forcing attained, yielded a very good prediction of flowering. Results were good even if hourly temperatures were reconstructed from daily minimum and maximum values. Errors resulting from prediction of flowering data were relatively small, and root mean square errors were in the range of 1-6 days, being <2 days for the longest phenological series. In the most general form of the model, the summation of GDH required for flowering is not a fixed value, but a function of topoclimatic variables for a particular site: slope, aspect and spring mean temperature. This approach allows extension of application of the model to sites with different climatic features outside the test area.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00484-006-0043-xDOI Listing
September 2006