Publications by authors named "Eloy Ortiz"

4 Publications

  • Page 1 of 1

An open challenge to advance probabilistic forecasting for dengue epidemics.

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2019 11 11;116(48):24268-24274. Epub 2019 Nov 11.

Bureau of Oceans, International Environmental and Scientific Affairs, US Department of State, Washington, DC 20520.

A wide range of research has promised new tools for forecasting infectious disease dynamics, but little of that research is currently being applied in practice, because tools do not address key public health needs, do not produce probabilistic forecasts, have not been evaluated on external data, or do not provide sufficient forecast skill to be useful. We developed an open collaborative forecasting challenge to assess probabilistic forecasts for seasonal epidemics of dengue, a major global public health problem. Sixteen teams used a variety of methods and data to generate forecasts for 3 epidemiological targets (peak incidence, the week of the peak, and total incidence) over 8 dengue seasons in Iquitos, Peru and San Juan, Puerto Rico. Forecast skill was highly variable across teams and targets. While numerous forecasts showed high skill for midseason situational awareness, early season skill was low, and skill was generally lowest for high incidence seasons, those for which forecasts would be most valuable. A comparison of modeling approaches revealed that average forecast skill was lower for models including biologically meaningful data and mechanisms and that both multimodel and multiteam ensemble forecasts consistently outperformed individual model forecasts. Leveraging these insights, data, and the forecasting framework will be critical to improve forecast skill and the application of forecasts in real time for epidemic preparedness and response. Moreover, key components of this project-integration with public health needs, a common forecasting framework, shared and standardized data, and open participation-can help advance infectious disease forecasting beyond dengue.
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November 2019

Dyadic Instruction for Middle School Students: Liking Promotes Learning.

Learn Individ Differ 2015 Dec;44:33-39

Research Department, ETR Associates.

This study examines whether friendship facilitates or hinders learning in a dyadic instructional setting. Working in 80 same-sex pairs, 160 (60 girls, 100 boys) middle school students ( = 12.13 years old) were taught a new computer programming language and programmed a game. Students spent 14 to 30 ( = 22.7) hours in a programming class. At the beginning and the end of the project, each participant separately completed (a) computer programming knowledge assessments and (b) questionnaires rating their affinity for their partner. Results support the proposition that liking promotes learning: Greater partner affinity predicted greater subsequent increases in computer programming knowledge for both partners. One partner's initial programming knowledge also positively predicted the other partner's subsequent partner affinity.
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December 2015

[Metabolic changes and nutritional status in the spinal cord injured patient ASIA A. Evaluation and monitoring with routine laboratories, a feasible option].

Acta Ortop Mex 2007 Nov-Dec;21(6):313-7

Clínica de Columna/Centro de Atención para Lesionados Raquimedulares de la Ciudad de México, Hospital General La Villa, Secretaría de Salud del Distrito Federal.

Introduction: Spinal Cord Injury ASIA A (tetraplegia) is a frequent pathology that may affect population regardless of age, sex or race, and that can induce metabolic abnormalities that may worsen the nutritional status of these patients. There are no existing specific protocols to treat these disorders in the specialized units in Mexico.

Material And Methods: We analyzed 16 patients at the Spine Clinic SS-DF, 18 years or older without any drug treatment or any previous disease, known or diagnosed when admitted to the hospital. Laboratory samples were obtained as well as the nutritional status was calculated at their admittance and discharge. Individually calculated nutritional support was administered starting at their third day of hospital stay.

Results: 100% of the patients showed some type of metabolic disorder associated to the neurological injury. 50% of the patients were classified with severe malnutrition, 25% moderate and 25% mild, all improved at their discharge.

Conclusions: We confirmed the presence of metabolic changes in these patients, the efficacy of routine laboratory in the Spine Clinic SS-DF for their evaluation, and that adequate nutritional support may help correct metabolic disorders in this patients.
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July 2008

The Solaar HIV prevention program for gay and bisexual Latino men: using social marketing to build capacity for service provision and evaluation.

AIDS Educ Prev 2005 Aug;17(4):361-74

University of California, Irvine, Urban and Regional Planning, School of Social Ecology, Irvine, CA 92697, USA.

Community-researcher partnerships can be powerful mechanisms to understand and effectively address health and social problems such as HIV/AIDS prevention. When the partnership is a positive, productive one, the combined expertise and energy of both parties result in a more effective program and a better evaluation of its effects. This article describes one such partnership and how a program challenge provided the opportunity for both partners to develop new capacities and strengthen others. The program is Proyecto SOLAAR, a community-based and culturally-sensitive HIV prevention program for gay and bisexual Latino men. The program is an experiential, daylong retreat focused on personal aspects of the men (e.g., self-concept), ideas about and aspects of their relationship behavior (e.g., cultural misunderstandings, dating behavior), and HIV prevention; there is a follow-up reunion a month later to share experiences with other participants about new dating and HIV prevention behaviors. The article focuses in particular on how the partners built new capacity in the area of social marketing to address the challenge of participant recruitment and describes the components of the new campaign. These components included distinctive images in ads in publications read by the target population, a toll-free telephone number and Web site for easy initial contact with the program, phone cards and postcards featuring the specially created program image to reinforce a connection to the program, and other aspects. The article describes the partnership between the HIV service providers and the researchers and how the collaborative effort was key to understanding and addressing the recruitment problem, identifying potential solutions, and implementing the new social marketing strategy. This process resulted in four kinds of capacities that were built or strengthened, including program recruitment, program content and implementation, program evaluation, and the partnership itself. The article concludes with a discussion of the unexpected benefits of the capacity-building experience and of the antecedent conditions that fostered the positive partnership outcomes.
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August 2005