Publications by authors named "Elio Riboli"

782 Publications

Plasma concentrations of persistent organic pollutants and pancreatic cancer risk.

Int J Epidemiol 2021 Jul 14. Epub 2021 Jul 14.

Cancer Registry and Histopathology Department, "Civic-M.P. Arezzo" Hospital, ASP Ragusa, Ragusa, Italy.

Background: Findings and limitations of previous studies on persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and pancreatic cancer risk support conducting further research in prospective cohorts.

Methods: We conducted a prospective case-control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Participants were 513 pancreatic cancer cases and 1020 matched controls. Concentrations of 22 POPs were measured in plasma collected at baseline.

Results: Some associations were observed at higher concentrations of p, p'-DDT, trans-nonachlor, β-hexachlorocyclohexane and the sum of six organochlorine pesticides and of 16 POPs. The odds ratio (OR) for the upper quartile of trans-nonachlor was 1.55 (95% confidence interval 1.06-2.26; P for trend = 0.025). Associations were stronger in the groups predefined as most valid (participants having fasted >6 h, with microscopic diagnostic confirmation, normal weight, and never smokers), and as most relevant (follow-up ≥10 years). Among participants having fasted >6 h, the ORs were relevant for 10 of 11 exposures. Higher ORs were also observed among cases with microscopic confirmation than in cases with a clinical diagnosis, and among normal-weight participants than in the rest of participants. Among participants with a follow-up ≥10 years, estimates were higher than in participants with a shorter follow-up (for trans-nonachlor: OR = 2.14, 1.01 to 4.53, P for trend = 0.035). Overall, trans-nonachlor, three PCBs and the two sums of POPs were the exposures most clearly associated with pancreatic cancer risk.

Conclusions: Individually or in combination, most of the 22 POPs analysed did not or only moderately increased the risk of pancreatic cancer.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyab115DOI Listing
July 2021

A Body Shape Index (ABSI), hip index, and risk of cancer in the UK Biobank cohort.

Cancer Med 2021 Jul 1. Epub 2021 Jul 1.

Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, UK.

Abdominal size is associated positively with the risk of some cancers but the influence of body mass index (BMI) and gluteofemoral size is unclear because waist and hip circumference are strongly correlated with BMI. We examined associations of 33 cancers with A Body Shape Index (ABSI) and hip index (HI), which are independent of BMI by design, and compared these with waist and hip circumference, using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models in UK Biobank. During a mean follow-up of 7 years, 14,682 incident cancers were ascertained in 200,289 men and 12,965 cancers in 230,326 women. In men, ABSI was associated positively with cancers of the head and neck (hazard ratio HR = 1.14; 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.26 per one standard deviation increment), esophagus (adenocarcinoma, HR = 1.27; 1.12-1.44), gastric cardia (HR = 1.31; 1.07-1.61), colon (HR = 1.18; 1.10-1.26), rectum (HR = 1.13; 1.04-1.22), lung (adenocarcinoma, HR = 1.16; 1.03-1.30; squamous cell carcinoma [SCC], HR = 1.33; 1.17-1.52), and bladder (HR = 1.15; 1.04-1.27), while HI was associated inversely with cancers of the esophagus (adenocarcinoma, HR = 0.89; 0.79-1.00), gastric cardia (HR = 0.79; 0.65-0.96), colon (HR = 0.92; 0.86-0.98), liver (HR = 0.86; 0.75-0.98), and multiple myeloma (HR = 0.86; 0.75-1.00). In women, ABSI was associated positively with cancers of the head and neck (HR = 1.27; 1.10-1.48), esophagus (SCC, HR = 1.37; 1.07-1.76), colon (HR = 1.08; 1.01-1.16), lung (adenocarcinoma, HR = 1.17; 1.06-1.29; SCC, HR = 1.40; 1.20-1.63; small cell, HR = 1.39; 1.14-1.69), kidney (clear-cell, HR = 1.25; 1.03-1.50), and post-menopausal endometrium (HR = 1.11; 1.02-1.20), while HI was associated inversely with skin SCC (HR = 0.91; 0.83-0.99), post-menopausal kidney cancer (HR = 0.77; 0.67-0.88), and post-menopausal melanoma (HR = 0.90; 0.83-0.98). Unusually, ABSI was associated inversely with melanoma in men (HR = 0.89; 0.82-0.96) and pre-menopausal women (HR = 0.77; 0.65-0.91). Waist and hip circumference reflected associations with BMI, when examined individually, and provided biased risk estimates, when combined with BMI. In conclusion, preferential positive associations of ABSI or inverse of HI with several major cancers indicate an important role of factors determining body shape in cancer development.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/cam4.4097DOI Listing
July 2021

Inflammatory potential of the diet and risk of breast cancer in the European Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study.

Eur J Epidemiol 2021 Jun 20. Epub 2021 Jun 20.

Director Office, International Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization, Lyon, France.

The role of chronic inflammation on breast cancer (BC) risk remains unclear beyond as an underlying mechanism of obesity and physical activity. We aimed to evaluate the association between the inflammatory potential of the diet and risk of BC overall, according to menopausal status and tumour subtypes. Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort, 318,686 women were followed for 14 years, among whom 13,246 incident BC cases were identified. The inflammatory potential of the diet was characterized by an inflammatory score of the diet (ISD). Multivariable Cox regression models were used to assess the potential effect of the ISD on BC risk by means of hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). ISD was positively associated with BC risk. Each increase of one standard deviation (1-Sd) of the score increased by 4% the risk of BC (HR = 1.04; 95% CI 1.01-1.07). Women in the highest quintile of the ISD (indicating a most pro-inflammatory diet) had a 12% increase in risk compared with those in the lowest quintile (HR = 1.12; 95% CI 1.04-1.21) with a significant trend. The association was strongest among premenopausal women, with an 8% increased risk for 1-Sd increase in the score (HR = 1.08; 95% CI 1.01-1.14). The pattern of the association was quite homogeneous by BC subtypes based on hormone receptor status. There were no significant interactions between ISD and body mass index, physical activity, or alcohol consumption. Women consuming more pro-inflammatory diets as measured by ISD are at increased risk for BC, especially premenopausal women.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10654-021-00772-2DOI Listing
June 2021

Associations between dietary amino acid intakes and blood concentration levels.

Clin Nutr 2021 Jun 27;40(6):3772-3779. Epub 2021 Apr 27.

International Agency for Research on Cancer, Nutrition and Metabolism Section, 69372, Lyon CEDEX 08, France.

Background And Aims: Emerging evidence suggests a role of amino acids (AAs) in the development of various diseases including renal failure, liver cirrhosis, diabetes and cancer. However, mechanistic pathways and the effects of dietary AA intakes on circulating levels and disease outcomes are unclear. We aimed to compare protein and AA intakes, with their respective blood concentrations in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort.

Methods: Dietary protein and AA intakes were assessed via the EPIC dietary questionnaires (DQ) and 24-h dietary recalls (24-HDR). A subsample of 3768 EPIC participants who were free of cancer had blood AA concentrations measured. To investigate how circulating levels relate to their respective intakes, dietary AA intake was examined in quintiles and ANOVA tests were run. Pearson correlations were examined for continous associations between intakes and blood concentrations.

Results: Dietary AA intakes (assessed with the DQ) and blood AA concentrations were not strongly correlated (-0.15 ≤ r ≤ 0.17) and the direction of the correlations depended on AA class: weak positive correlations were found for most essential AAs (isoleucine, leucine, lysine, methionine, threonine, tryptophan, and valine) and conditionally essential AAs (arginine and tyrosine), while negative associations were found for non-essential AAs. Similar results were found when using the 24-HDR. When conducting ANOVA tests for essential AAs, higher intake quintiles were linked to higher blood AA concentrations, except for histidine and phenylalanine. For non-essential AAs and glycine, an inverse relationship was observed. Conditionally-essential AAs showed mixed results.

Conclusions: Weak positive correlations and dose responses were found between most essential and conditionally essential AA intakes, and blood concentrations, but not for the non-essential AAs. These results suggest that intake of dietary AA might be related to physiological AA status, particularly for the essential AAs. However, these results should be further evaluated and confirmed in large-scale prospective studies.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.clnu.2021.04.036DOI Listing
June 2021

The association between meat and fish consumption and bladder cancer risk: a pooled analysis of 11 cohort studies.

Eur J Epidemiol 2021 May 25. Epub 2021 May 25.

Department of Complex Genetics and Epidemiology, School of Nutrition and Translational Research in Metabolism, Maastricht University, Universiteitssingel40 (RoomC5.570), 6229 ER, Maastricht, The Netherlands.

Evidence on the effects of meat consumption from different sources on the risk of bladder cancer (BC) is limited and controversial. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the associations between meat consumption and BC risk using a pooled data approach. Individual data from 11 prospective cohorts comprising 2848 BC cases and 515,697 non-cases with a total of 5,498,025 person-years of follow-up was pooled and analysed to investigate the potential associations between total red meat and products, red meat, processed meat, poultry and total fish and BC risk. Hazard ratios (HRs), with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs), were estimated using Cox regression models stratified on cohort. Overall, an increased BC risk was found for high intake of organ meat (HR comparing highest with lowest tertile: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.36, p-trend = 0.03). On the contrary, a marginally inverse association was observed for total fish intake and BC risk among men (HR comparing highest with lowest tertile: 0.79, 95% CI 0.65, 0.97, p-trend = 0.04). No associations were observed for other meat sources. Results of this prospective study suggest that organ meat consumption may be associated with BC development. Replication in large-scale prospective studies and investigation of possible causal mechanisms is needed.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10654-021-00762-4DOI Listing
May 2021

GWAS of allometric body-shape indices in UK Biobank identifies loci suggesting associations with morphogenesis, organogenesis, adrenal cell renewal and cancer.

Sci Rep 2021 May 21;11(1):10688. Epub 2021 May 21.

Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK.

Genetic studies have examined body-shape measures adjusted for body mass index (BMI), while allometric indices are additionally adjusted for height. We performed the first genome-wide association study of A Body Shape Index (ABSI), Hip Index (HI) and the new Waist-to-Hip Index and compared these with traditional indices, using data from the UK Biobank Resource for 219,872 women and 186,825 men with white British ancestry and Bayesian linear mixed-models (BOLT-LMM). One to two thirds of the loci identified for allometric body-shape indices were novel. Most prominent was rs72959041 variant in RSPO3 gene, expressed in visceral adipose tissue and regulating adrenal cell renewal. Highly ranked were genes related to morphogenesis and organogenesis, previously additionally linked to cancer development and progression. Genetic associations were fewer in men compared to women. Prominent region-specific associations showed variants in loci VEGFA and HMGA1 for ABSI and KLF14 for HI in women, and C5orf67 and HOXC4/5 for ABSI and RSPO3, VEGFA and SLC30A10 for HI in men. Although more variants were associated with waist and hip circumference adjusted for BMI compared to ABSI and HI, associations with height had previously been reported for many of the additional variants, illustrating the importance of adjusting correctly for height.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-89176-6DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8139988PMC
May 2021

Primary sclerosing cholangitis and the risk of cancer, cardiovascular disease, and all-cause mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies.

Sci Rep 2021 May 20;11(1):10646. Epub 2021 May 20.

Division of Surgery, Inflammatory Medicine and Transplantation, Department of Transplantation Medicine, Norwegian PSC Research Center, Oslo University Hospital Rikshospitalet, Oslo, Norway.

A diagnosis of primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) has been associated with increased risk of hepatobiliary cancers, colorectal cancer and all-cause mortality in several studies, while associations with cardiovascular disease have been inconsistent. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of published cohort studies on the topic to summarize these associations. PubMed and Embase databases were searched up to January 13th, 2020. Cohort studies on PSC and risk of cancer, cardiovascular disease, or mortality were included. Summary relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were estimated using random effects models. The summary RR (95% CI) comparing persons with PSC to persons without PSC was 584.37 (269.42-1267.51, I = 89%, n = 4) for cholangiocarcinoma (CCA), 155.54 (125.34-193.02, I = 0%, n = 3) for hepatobiliary cancer, 30.22 (11.99-76.17, I = 0%, n = 2) for liver cancer, 16.92 (8.73-32.78, I = 88%, n = 4) for gastrointestinal cancer, 7.56 (2.42-23.62, I = 0%, n = 3) for pancreatic cancer, 6.10 (4.19-8.87, I = 14%, n = 7) for colorectal cancer (CRC), 4.13 (2.99-5.71, I = 80%, n = 5) for total cancer, 3.55 (2.94-4.28, I = 46%, n = 5) for all-cause mortality, and 1.57 (0.25-9.69, I = 79%, n = 2) for cardiovascular disease. Strong positive associations were observed between PSC and risk of CCA, hepatobiliary cancer, liver cancer, gastrointestinal cancer, pancreatic cancer, CRC, total cancer, and all-cause mortality, but not for cardiovascular disease.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-90175-wDOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8137938PMC
May 2021

Soft Drink and Juice Consumption and Renal Cell Carcinoma Incidence and Mortality in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.

Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2021 Jun 13;30(6):1270-1274. Epub 2021 Apr 13.

International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC-WHO), Lyon, France.

Background: Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) accounts for more than 80% of kidney cancers in adults, and obesity is a known risk factor. Regular consumption of sweetened beverages has been linked to obesity and several chronic diseases, including some types of cancer. It is uncertain whether soft drink and juice consumption is associated with risk of RCC. We investigated the associations of soft drink and juice consumption with RCC incidence and mortality in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC).

Methods: A total of 389,220 EPIC participants with median age of 52 years at recruitment (1991-2000) were included. Cox regression yielded adjusted HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for RCC incidence and mortality in relation to intakes of juices and total, sugar-sweetened, and artificially sweetened soft drinks.

Results: A total of 888 incident RCCs and 356 RCC deaths were identified. In models including adjustment for body mass index and energy intake, there was no higher risk of incident RCC associated with consumption of juices (HR per 100 g/day increment = 1.03; 95% CI, 0.97-1.09), total soft drinks (HR = 1.01; 95% CI, 0.98-1.05), sugar-sweetened soft drinks (HR = 0.99; 95% CI, 0.94-1.05), or artificially sweetened soft drinks (HR = 1.02; 95% CI, 0.96-1.08). In these fully adjusted models, none of the beverages was associated with RCC mortality (HR, 95% CI per 100 g/day increment 1.06, 0.97-1.16; 1.03, 0.98-1.09; 0.97, 0.89-1.07; and 1.06, 0.99-1.14, respectively).

Conclusions: Consumption of juices or soft drinks was not associated with RCC incidence or mortality after adjusting for obesity.

Impact: Soft drink and juice intakes are unlikely to play an independent role in RCC development or mortality.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-20-1726DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7611361PMC
June 2021

A comparison of complementary measures of vitamin B6 status, function, and metabolism in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study.

Am J Clin Nutr 2021 Jul;114(1):338-347

Department of Medical Biosciences, Pathology, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.

Background: Vitamin B6 insufficiency has been linked to increased risk of cancer and other chronic diseases. The circulating concentration of pyridoxal 5'-phosphate (PLP) is a commonly used measure of vitamin B6 status. Ratios of substrates indicating PLP coenzymatic function and metabolism may be useful complementary measures to further explore the role of vitamin B6 in health.

Objectives: We explored the sensitivity of 5 outcomes, namely PLP concentration, homocysteine:cysteine (Hcy:Cys), cystathionine:cysteine (Cysta:Cys), the 3´-hydroxykynurenine ratio (HKr), and the 4-pyridoxic acid ratio (PAr) to vitamin B6 intake as well as personal and lifestyle characteristics.

Medthods: Dietary intake and biomarker data were collected from participants from 3 nested case-control studies within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Bayesian regression models assessed the associations of the 5 biomarker outcomes with vitamin B6 intake and personal and lifestyle covariates. Analogous models examined the relations of Hcy:Cys, Cysta:Cys, and HKr with PLP.

Results: In total, 4608 participants were included in the analyses. Vitamin B6 intake was most strongly associated with PLP, moderately associated with Hcy:Cys, Cysta:Cys, and HKr, and not associated with PAr (fold change in marker given a doubling of vitamin B6 intake: PLP 1.60 [95% credible interval (CrI): 1.50, 1.71]; Hcy:Cys 0.87 [95% CrI: 0.84, 0.90]; Cysta:Cys 0.89 [95% CrI: 0.84, 0.94]; HKr 0.88 [95% CrI: 0.85, 0.91]; PAr 1.00 [95% CrI: 0.95, 1.05]). PAr was most sensitive to age, and HKr was least sensitive to BMI and alcohol intake. Sex and menopause status were strongly associated with all 5 markers.

Conclusions: We found that 5 different markers, capturing different aspects of vitamin B6-related biological processes, varied in their associations with vitamin B6 intake and personal and lifestyle predictors.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ajcn/nqab045DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8246608PMC
July 2021

Long-term weight change and risk of breast cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study.

Int J Epidemiol 2021 Mar 23. Epub 2021 Mar 23.

Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, UK.

Background: The role of obesity and weight change in breast-cancer development is complex and incompletely understood. We investigated long-term weight change and breast-cancer risk by body mass index (BMI) at age 20 years, menopausal status, hormone replacement therapy (HRT) and hormone-receptor status.

Methods: Using data on weight collected at three different time points from women who participated in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study, we investigated the association between weight change from age 20 years until middle adulthood and risk of breast cancer.

Results: In total, 150 257 women with a median age of 51 years at cohort entry were followed for an average of 14 years (standard deviation = 3.9) during which 6532 breast-cancer cases occurred. Compared with women with stable weight (±2.5 kg), long-term weight gain >10 kg was positively associated with postmenopausal breast-cancer risk in women who were lean at age 20 [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.42; 95% confidence interval 1.22-1.65] in ever HRT users (HR = 1.23; 1.04-1.44), in never HRT users (HR = 1.40; 1.16-1.68) and in oestrogen-and-progesterone-receptor-positive (ER+PR+) breast cancer (HR = 1.46; 1.15-1.85).

Conclusion: Long-term weight gain was positively associated with postmenopausal breast cancer in women who were lean at age 20, both in HRT ever users and non-users, and hormone-receptor-positive breast cancer.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyab032DOI Listing
March 2021

Genetically predicted circulating concentrations of micronutrients and risk of colorectal cancer among individuals of European descent: a Mendelian randomization study.

Am J Clin Nutr 2021 06;113(6):1490-1502

Division of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany.

Background: The literature on associations of circulating concentrations of minerals and vitamins with risk of colorectal cancer is limited and inconsistent. Evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to support the efficacy of dietary modification or nutrient supplementation for colorectal cancer prevention is also limited.

Objectives: To complement observational and RCT findings, we investigated associations of genetically predicted concentrations of 11 micronutrients (β-carotene, calcium, copper, folate, iron, magnesium, phosphorus, selenium, vitamin B-6, vitamin B-12, and zinc) with colorectal cancer risk using Mendelian randomization (MR).

Methods: Two-sample MR was conducted using 58,221 individuals with colorectal cancer and 67,694 controls from the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium, Colorectal Cancer Transdisciplinary Study, and Colon Cancer Family Registry. Inverse variance-weighted MR analyses were performed with sensitivity analyses to assess the impact of potential violations of MR assumptions.

Results: Nominally significant associations were noted for genetically predicted iron concentration and higher risk of colon cancer [ORs per SD (ORSD): 1.08; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.17; P value = 0.05] and similarly for proximal colon cancer, and for vitamin B-12 concentration and higher risk of colorectal cancer (ORSD: 1.12; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.21; P value = 0.01) and similarly for colon cancer. A nominally significant association was also noted for genetically predicted selenium concentration and lower risk of colon cancer (ORSD: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.96, 1.00; P value = 0.05) and similarly for distal colon cancer. These associations were robust to sensitivity analyses. Nominally significant inverse associations were observed for zinc and risk of colorectal and distal colon cancers, but sensitivity analyses could not be performed. None of these findings survived correction for multiple testing. Genetically predicted concentrations of β-carotene, calcium, copper, folate, magnesium, phosphorus, and vitamin B-6 were not associated with disease risk.

Conclusions: These results suggest possible causal associations of circulating iron and vitamin B-12 (positively) and selenium (inversely) with risk of colon cancer.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ajcn/nqab003DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8168352PMC
June 2021

Tobacco Smoking and Risk of Second Primary Lung Cancer.

J Thorac Oncol 2021 06 17;16(6):968-979. Epub 2021 Mar 17.

Quantitative Sciences Unit, Department of Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California; Stanford Cancer Institute, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California; Department of Neurosurgery, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California. Electronic address:

Introduction: Lung cancer survivors are at high risk of developing a second primary lung cancer (SPLC). However, SPLC risk factors have not been established and the impact of tobacco smoking remains controversial. We examined the risk factors for SPLC across multiple epidemiologic cohorts and evaluated the impact of smoking cessation on reducing SPLC risk.

Methods: We analyzed data from 7059 participants in the Multiethnic Cohort (MEC) diagnosed with an initial primary lung cancer (IPLC) between 1993 and 2017. Cause-specific proportional hazards models estimated SPLC risk. We conducted validation studies using the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (N = 3423 IPLC cases) and European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (N = 4731 IPLC cases) cohorts and pooled the SPLC risk estimates using random effects meta-analysis.

Results: Overall, 163 MEC cases (2.3%) developed SPLC. Smoking pack-years (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.18 per 10 pack-years, p < 0.001) and smoking intensity (HR = 1.30 per 10 cigarettes per day, p < 0.001) were significantly associated with increased SPLC risk. Individuals who met the 2013 U.S. Preventive Services Task Force's screening criteria at IPLC diagnosis also had an increased SPLC risk (HR = 1.92; p < 0.001). Validation studies with the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial and European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition revealed consistent results. Meta-analysis yielded pooled HRs of 1.16 per 10 pack-years (p < 0.001), 1.25 per 10 cigarettes per day (p < 0.001), and 1.99 (p < 0.001) for meeting the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force's criteria. In MEC, smoking cessation after IPLC diagnosis was associated with an 83% reduction in SPLC risk (HR = 0.17; p < 0.001).

Conclusions: Tobacco smoking is a risk factor for SPLC. Smoking cessation may reduce the risk of SPLC. Additional strategies for SPLC surveillance and screening are warranted.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtho.2021.02.024DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8159872PMC
June 2021

Vegetable intake and the risk of bladder cancer in the BLadder Cancer Epidemiology and Nutritional Determinants (BLEND) international study.

BMC Med 2021 Mar 9;19(1):56. Epub 2021 Mar 9.

Department of Complex Genetics and Epidemiology, School of Nutrition and Translational Research in Metabolism, Maastricht University, Universiteitssingel 40 (Room C5.570), 6229 ER, Maastricht, the Netherlands.

Background: Although a potential inverse association between vegetable intake and bladder cancer risk has been reported, epidemiological evidence is inconsistent. This research aimed to elucidate the association between vegetable intake and bladder cancer risk by conducting a pooled analysis of data from prospective cohort studies.

Methods: Vegetable intake in relation to bladder cancer risk was examined by pooling individual-level data from 13 cohort studies, comprising 3203 cases among a total of 555,685 participants. Pooled multivariate hazard ratios (HRs), with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs), were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression models stratified by cohort for intakes of total vegetable, vegetable subtypes (i.e. non-starchy, starchy, green leafy and cruciferous vegetables) and individual vegetable types. In addition, a diet diversity score was used to assess the association of the varied types of vegetable intake on bladder cancer risk.

Results: The association between vegetable intake and bladder cancer risk differed by sex (P-interaction = 0.011) and smoking status (P-interaction = 0.038); therefore, analyses were stratified by sex and smoking status. With adjustment of age, sex, smoking, energy intake, ethnicity and other potential dietary factors, we found that higher intake of total and non-starchy vegetables were inversely associated with the risk of bladder cancer among women (comparing the highest with lowest intake tertile: HR = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.64-0.98, P = 0.037 for trend, HR per 1 SD increment = 0.89, 95% CI = 0.81-0.99; HR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.63-0.97, P = 0.034 for trend, HR per 1 SD increment = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.79-0.98, respectively). However, no evidence of association was observed among men, and the intake of vegetable was not found to be associated with bladder cancer when stratified by smoking status. Moreover, we found no evidence of association for diet diversity with bladder cancer risk.

Conclusion: Higher intakes of total and non-starchy vegetable are associated with reduced risk of bladder cancer for women. Further studies are needed to clarify whether these results reflect causal processes and potential underlying mechanisms.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12916-021-01931-8DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7942172PMC
March 2021

Genetic architectures of proximal and distal colorectal cancer are partly distinct.

Gut 2021 Jul 25;70(7):1325-1334. Epub 2021 Feb 25.

Cancer Prevention and Control Program, Catalan Institute of Oncology - IDIBELL, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain.

Objective: An understanding of the etiologic heterogeneity of colorectal cancer (CRC) is critical for improving precision prevention, including individualized screening recommendations and the discovery of novel drug targets and repurposable drug candidates for chemoprevention. Known differences in molecular characteristics and environmental risk factors among tumors arising in different locations of the colorectum suggest partly distinct mechanisms of carcinogenesis. The extent to which the contribution of inherited genetic risk factors for CRC differs by anatomical subsite of the primary tumor has not been examined.

Design: To identify new anatomical subsite-specific risk loci, we performed genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analyses including data of 48 214 CRC cases and 64 159 controls of European ancestry. We characterised effect heterogeneity at CRC risk loci using multinomial modelling.

Results: We identified 13 loci that reached genome-wide significance (p<5×10) and that were not reported by previous GWASs for overall CRC risk. Multiple lines of evidence support candidate genes at several of these loci. We detected substantial heterogeneity between anatomical subsites. Just over half (61) of 109 known and new risk variants showed no evidence for heterogeneity. In contrast, 22 variants showed association with distal CRC (including rectal cancer), but no evidence for association or an attenuated association with proximal CRC. For two loci, there was strong evidence for effects confined to proximal colon cancer.

Conclusion: Genetic architectures of proximal and distal CRC are partly distinct. Studies of risk factors and mechanisms of carcinogenesis, and precision prevention strategies should take into consideration the anatomical subsite of the tumour.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/gutjnl-2020-321534DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8223655PMC
July 2021

Smoking Modifies Pancreatic Cancer Risk Loci on 2q21.3.

Cancer Res 2021 Jun 11;81(11):3134-3143. Epub 2021 Feb 11.

Department of Oncology, Sidney Kimmel Comprehensive Cancer Center, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland.

Germline variation and smoking are independently associated with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). We conducted genome-wide smoking interaction analysis of PDAC using genotype data from four previous genome-wide association studies in individuals of European ancestry (7,937 cases and 11,774 controls). Examination of expression quantitative trait loci data from the Genotype-Tissue Expression Project followed by colocalization analysis was conducted to determine whether there was support for common SNP(s) underlying the observed associations. Statistical tests were two sided and < 5 × 10 was considered statistically significant. Genome-wide significant evidence of qualitative interaction was identified on chr2q21.3 in intron 5 of the transmembrane protein 163 (TMEM163) and upstream of the cyclin T2 (CCNT2). The most significant SNP using the Empirical Bayes method, in this region that included 45 significantly associated SNPs, was rs1818613 [per allele OR in never smokers 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.82-0.93; former smokers 1.00, 95% CI, 0.91-1.07; current smokers 1.25, 95% CI 1.12-1.40, = 3.08 × 10). Examination of the Genotype-Tissue Expression Project data demonstrated an expression quantitative trait locus in this region for TMEM163 and CCNT2 in several tissue types. Colocalization analysis supported a shared SNP, rs842357, in high linkage disequilibrium with rs1818613 ( = 0. 94) driving both the observed interaction and the expression quantitative trait loci signals. Future studies are needed to confirm and understand the differential biologic mechanisms by smoking status that contribute to our PDAC findings. SIGNIFICANCE: This large genome-wide interaction study identifies a susceptibility locus on 2q21.3 that significantly modified PDAC risk by smoking status, providing insight into smoking-associated PDAC, with implications for prevention.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1158/0008-5472.CAN-20-3267DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8178175PMC
June 2021

Lifetime alcohol intake, drinking patterns over time and risk of stomach cancer: A pooled analysis of data from two prospective cohort studies.

Int J Cancer 2021 Jun 22;148(11):2759-2773. Epub 2021 Feb 22.

Hellenic Health Foundation, Athens, Greece.

Alcohol consumption is causally linked to several cancers but the evidence for stomach cancer is inconclusive. In our study, the association between long-term alcohol intake and risk of stomach cancer and its subtypes was evaluated. We performed a pooled analysis of data collected at baseline from 491 714 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition and the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated for incident stomach cancer in relation to lifetime alcohol intake and group-based life course intake trajectories, adjusted for potential confounders including Helicobacter pylori infection. In all, 1225 incident stomach cancers (78% noncardia) were diagnosed over 7 094 637 person-years; 984 in 382 957 study participants with lifetime alcohol intake data (5 455 507 person-years). Although lifetime alcohol intake was not associated with overall stomach cancer risk, we observed a weak positive association with noncardia cancer (HR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.00-1.06 per 10 g/d increment), with a HR of 1.50 (95% CI: 1.08-2.09) for ≥60 g/d compared to 0.1 to 4.9 g/d. A weak inverse association with cardia cancer (HR = 0.93, 95% CI: 0.87-1.00) was also observed. HRs of 1.48 (95% CI: 1.10-1.99) for noncardia and 0.51 (95% CI: 0.26-1.03) for cardia cancer were observed for a life course trajectory characterized by heavy decreasing intake compared to light stable intake (P = .02). These associations did not differ appreciably by smoking or H pylori infection status. Limiting alcohol use during lifetime, particularly avoiding heavy use during early adulthood, might help prevent noncardia stomach cancer. Heterogeneous associations observed for cardia and noncardia cancers may indicate etiologic differences.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ijc.33504DOI Listing
June 2021

Coffee consumption and risk of breast cancer: A Mendelian randomization study.

PLoS One 2021 19;16(1):e0236904. Epub 2021 Jan 19.

Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.

Background: Observational studies have reported either null or weak protective associations for coffee consumption and risk of breast cancer.

Methods: We conducted a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis to evaluate the relationship between coffee consumption and breast cancer risk using 33 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with coffee consumption from a genome-wide association (GWA) study on 212,119 female UK Biobank participants of White British ancestry. Risk estimates for breast cancer were retrieved from publicly available GWA summary statistics from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) on 122,977 cases (of which 69,501 were estrogen receptor (ER)-positive, 21,468 ER-negative) and 105,974 controls of European ancestry. Random-effects inverse variance weighted (IVW) MR analyses were performed along with several sensitivity analyses to assess the impact of potential MR assumption violations.

Results: One cup per day increase in genetically predicted coffee consumption in women was not associated with risk of total (IVW random-effects; odds ratio (OR): 0.91, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.80-1.02, P: 0.12, P for instrument heterogeneity: 7.17e-13), ER-positive (OR = 0.90, 95% CI: 0.79-1.02, P: 0.09) and ER-negative breast cancer (OR: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.75-1.03, P: 0.12). Null associations were also found in the sensitivity analyses using MR-Egger (total breast cancer; OR: 1.00, 95% CI: 0.80-1.25), weighted median (OR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.89-1.05) and weighted mode (OR: 1.00, CI: 0.93-1.07).

Conclusions: The results of this large MR study do not support an association of genetically predicted coffee consumption on breast cancer risk, but we cannot rule out existence of a weak association.
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http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0236904PLOS
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7815134PMC
April 2021

Trans-ancestry genome-wide association meta-analysis of prostate cancer identifies new susceptibility loci and informs genetic risk prediction.

Nat Genet 2021 01 4;53(1):65-75. Epub 2021 Jan 4.

Cancer Epidemiology Division, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.

Prostate cancer is a highly heritable disease with large disparities in incidence rates across ancestry populations. We conducted a multiancestry meta-analysis of prostate cancer genome-wide association studies (107,247 cases and 127,006 controls) and identified 86 new genetic risk variants independently associated with prostate cancer risk, bringing the total to 269 known risk variants. The top genetic risk score (GRS) decile was associated with odds ratios that ranged from 5.06 (95% confidence interval (CI), 4.84-5.29) for men of European ancestry to 3.74 (95% CI, 3.36-4.17) for men of African ancestry. Men of African ancestry were estimated to have a mean GRS that was 2.18-times higher (95% CI, 2.14-2.22), and men of East Asian ancestry 0.73-times lower (95% CI, 0.71-0.76), than men of European ancestry. These findings support the role of germline variation contributing to population differences in prostate cancer risk, with the GRS offering an approach for personalized risk prediction.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41588-020-00748-0DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8148035PMC
January 2021

Development and validation of a lifestyle-based model for colorectal cancer risk prediction: the LiFeCRC score.

BMC Med 2021 Jan 4;19(1). Epub 2021 Jan 4.

Public Health Directorate, Asturias, Spain.

Background: Nutrition and lifestyle have been long established as risk factors for colorectal cancer (CRC). Modifiable lifestyle behaviours bear potential to minimize long-term CRC risk; however, translation of lifestyle information into individualized CRC risk assessment has not been implemented. Lifestyle-based risk models may aid the identification of high-risk individuals, guide referral to screening and motivate behaviour change. We therefore developed and validated a lifestyle-based CRC risk prediction algorithm in an asymptomatic European population.

Methods: The model was based on data from 255,482 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study aged 19 to 70 years who were free of cancer at study baseline (1992-2000) and were followed up to 31 September 2010. The model was validated in a sample comprising 74,403 participants selected among five EPIC centres. Over a median follow-up time of 15 years, there were 3645 and 981 colorectal cancer cases in the derivation and validation samples, respectively. Variable selection algorithms in Cox proportional hazard regression and random survival forest (RSF) were used to identify the best predictors among plausible predictor variables. Measures of discrimination and calibration were calculated in derivation and validation samples. To facilitate model communication, a nomogram and a web-based application were developed.

Results: The final selection model included age, waist circumference, height, smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, vegetables, dairy products, processed meat, and sugar and confectionary. The risk score demonstrated good discrimination overall and in sex-specific models. Harrell's C-index was 0.710 in the derivation cohort and 0.714 in the validation cohort. The model was well calibrated and showed strong agreement between predicted and observed risk. Random survival forest analysis suggested high model robustness. Beyond age, lifestyle data led to improved model performance overall (continuous net reclassification improvement = 0.307 (95% CI 0.264-0.352)), and especially for young individuals below 45 years (continuous net reclassification improvement = 0.364 (95% CI 0.084-0.575)).

Conclusions: LiFeCRC score based on age and lifestyle data accurately identifies individuals at risk for incident colorectal cancer in European populations and could contribute to improved prevention through motivating lifestyle change at an individual level.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12916-020-01826-0DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7780676PMC
January 2021

Physical activity and the risk of abdominal aortic aneurysm: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies.

Sci Rep 2020 12 18;10(1):22287. Epub 2020 Dec 18.

Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, St. Mary's Campus, Norfolk Place, Paddington, London, W2 1PG, UK.

The association between physical activity and risk of abdominal aortic aneurysm has been inconsistent with some studies reporting a reduced risk while others have found no association. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies to quantify the association. PubMed and Embase databases were searched up to 3 October 2020. Prospective studies were included if they reported adjusted relative risk (RR) estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of abdominal aortic aneurysm associated with physical activity. Summary RRs (95% CIs) were estimated using a random effects model. Nine prospective studies (2073 cases, 409,732 participants) were included. The summary RR for high vs. low physical activity was 0.70 (95% CI: 0.56-0.87, I = 58%) and per 20 metabolic equivalent task (MET)-hours/week increase of activity was 0.84 (95% CI: 0.74-0.95, I = 59%, n = 6). Although the test for nonlinearity was not significant (p = 0.09) the association appeared to be stronger when increasing the physical activity level from 0 to around 20-25 MET-hours/week than at higher levels. The current meta-analysis suggest that higher physical activity may reduce the risk of abdominal aortic aneurysm, however, further studies are needed to clarify the dose-response relationship between different subtypes and intensities of activity and abdominal aortic aneurysm risk.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-76306-9DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7749100PMC
December 2020

Risk Prediction for Renal Cell Carcinoma: Results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Prospective Cohort Study.

Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2021 Mar 17;30(3):507-512. Epub 2020 Dec 17.

School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.

Background: Early detection of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) has the potential to improve disease outcomes. No screening program for sporadic RCC is in place. Given relatively low incidence, screening would need to focus on people at high risk of clinically meaningful disease so as to limit overdiagnosis and screen-detected false positives.

Methods: Among 192,172 participants from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort (including 588 incident RCC cases), we evaluated a published RCC risk prediction model (including age, sex, BMI, and smoking status) in terms of discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (observed probability as a function of predicted probability). We used a flexible parametric survival model to develop an expanded model including age, sex, BMI, and smoking status, with the addition of self-reported history of hypertension and measured blood pressure.

Results: The previously published model yielded well-calibrated probabilities and good discrimination (C-statistic [95% CI]: 0.699 [0.679-0.721]). Our model had slightly improved discrimination (0.714 [0.694-0.735], bootstrap optimism-corrected C-statistic: 0.709). Despite this good performance, predicted risk was low for the vast majority of participants, with 70% of participants having 10-year risk less than 0.0025.

Conclusions: Although the models performed well for the prediction of incident RCC, they are currently insufficiently powerful to identify individuals at substantial risk of RCC in a general population.

Impact: Despite the promising performance of the EPIC RCC risk prediction model, further development of the model, possibly including biomarkers of risk, is required to enable risk stratification of RCC.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-20-1438DOI Listing
March 2021

Physical activity and the risk of heart failure: a systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis of prospective studies.

Eur J Epidemiol 2021 Apr 17;36(4):367-381. Epub 2020 Dec 17.

Department of Public Health and Nursing, Faculty of Medicine, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway.

Although physical activity is an established protective factor for cardiovascular diseases such as ischemic heart disease and stroke, less is known with regard to the association between specific domains of physical activity and heart failure, as well as the association between cardiorespiratory fitness and heart failure. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective observational studies to clarify the relations of total physical activity, domains of physical activity and cardiorespiratory fitness to risk of heart failure. PubMed and Embase databases were searched up to January 14th, 2020. Summary relative risks (RRs) were calculated using random effects models. Twenty-nine prospective studies (36 publications) were included in the review. The summary RRs for high versus low levels were 0.77 (95% CI 0.70-0.85, I = 49%, n = 7) for total physical activity, 0.74 (95% CI 0.68-0.81, I = 88.1%, n = 16) for leisure-time activity, 0.66 (95% CI 0.59-0.74, I = 0%, n = 2) for vigorous activity, 0.81 (95% CI 0.69-0.94, I = 86%, n = 3) for walking and bicycling combined, 0.90 (95% CI 0.86-0.95, I = 0%, n = 3) for occupational activity, and 0.31 (95% CI 0.19-0.49, I = 96%, n = 6) for cardiorespiratory fitness. In dose-response analyses, the summary RRs were 0.89 (95% CI 0.83-0.95, I = 67%, n = 4) per 20 MET-hours per day of total activity and 0.71 (95% CI 0.65-0.78, I = 85%, n = 11) per 20 MET-hours per week of leisure-time activity. Nonlinear associations were observed in both analyses with a flattening of the dose-response curve at 15-20 MET-hours/week for leisure-time activity. These findings suggest that high levels of total physical activity, leisure-time activity, vigorous activity, occupational activity, walking and bicycling combined and cardiorespiratory fitness are associated with reduced risk of developing heart failure.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10654-020-00693-6DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8076120PMC
April 2021

Adiposity, metabolites, and colorectal cancer risk: Mendelian randomization study.

BMC Med 2020 12 17;18(1):396. Epub 2020 Dec 17.

Division of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany.

Background: Higher adiposity increases the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC), but whether this relationship varies by anatomical sub-site or by sex is unclear. Further, the metabolic alterations mediating the effects of adiposity on CRC are not fully understood.

Methods: We examined sex- and site-specific associations of adiposity with CRC risk and whether adiposity-associated metabolites explain the associations of adiposity with CRC. Genetic variants from genome-wide association studies of body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR, unadjusted for BMI; N = 806,810), and 123 metabolites from targeted nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics (N = 24,925), were used as instruments. Sex-combined and sex-specific Mendelian randomization (MR) was conducted for BMI and WHR with CRC risk (58,221 cases and 67,694 controls in the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium, Colorectal Cancer Transdisciplinary Study, and Colon Cancer Family Registry). Sex-combined MR was conducted for BMI and WHR with metabolites, for metabolites with CRC, and for BMI and WHR with CRC adjusted for metabolite classes in multivariable models.

Results: In sex-specific MR analyses, higher BMI (per 4.2 kg/m) was associated with 1.23 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.08, 1.38) times higher CRC odds among men (inverse-variance-weighted (IVW) model); among women, higher BMI (per 5.2 kg/m) was associated with 1.09 (95% CI = 0.97, 1.22) times higher CRC odds. WHR (per 0.07 higher) was more strongly associated with CRC risk among women (IVW OR = 1.25, 95% CI = 1.08, 1.43) than men (IVW OR = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.81, 1.36). BMI or WHR was associated with 104/123 metabolites at false discovery rate-corrected P ≤ 0.05; several metabolites were associated with CRC, but not in directions that were consistent with the mediation of positive adiposity-CRC relations. In multivariable MR analyses, associations of BMI and WHR with CRC were not attenuated following adjustment for representative metabolite classes, e.g., the univariable IVW OR for BMI with CRC was 1.12 (95% CI = 1.00, 1.26), and this became 1.11 (95% CI = 0.99, 1.26) when adjusting for cholesterol in low-density lipoprotein particles.

Conclusions: Our results suggest that higher BMI more greatly raises CRC risk among men, whereas higher WHR more greatly raises CRC risk among women. Adiposity was associated with numerous metabolic alterations, but none of these explained associations between adiposity and CRC. More detailed metabolomic measures are likely needed to clarify the mechanistic pathways.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12916-020-01855-9DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7745469PMC
December 2020

Interaction Between GAD65 Antibodies and Dietary Fish Intake or Plasma Phospholipid n-3 Polyunsaturated Fatty Acids on Incident Adult-Onset Diabetes: The EPIC-InterAct Study.

Diabetes Care 2021 Feb 10;44(2):416-424. Epub 2020 Dec 10.

Medical Research Council Epidemiology Unit, Institute of Metabolic Science, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Cambridge, U.K.

Objective: Islet autoimmunity is associated with diabetes incidence. We investigated whether there was an interaction between dietary fish intake or plasma phospholipid n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) concentration with the 65-kDa isoform of GAD (GAD65) antibody positivity on the risk of developing adult-onset diabetes.

Research Design And Methods: We used prospective data on 11,247 incident cases of adult-onset diabetes and 14,288 noncases from the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study conducted in eight European countries. Baseline plasma samples were analyzed for GAD65 antibodies and phospholipid n-3 PUFAs. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for incident diabetes in relation to GAD65 antibody status and tertiles of plasma phospholipid n-3 PUFA or fish intake were estimated using Prentice-weighted Cox regression. Additive (proportion attributable to interaction [AP]) and multiplicative interactions between GAD65 antibody positivity (≥65 units/mL) and low fish/n-3 PUFA were assessed.

Results: The hazard of diabetes in antibody-positive individuals with low intake of total and fatty fish, respectively, was significantly elevated (HR 2.52 [95% CI 1.76-3.63] and 2.48 [1.79-3.45]) compared with people who were GAD65 antibody negative and had high fish intake, with evidence of additive (AP 0.44 [95% CI 0.16-0.72] and 0.48 [0.24-0.72]) and multiplicative ( = 0.0465 and 0.0103) interactions. Individuals with high GAD65 antibody levels (≥167.5 units/mL) and low total plasma phospholipid n-3 PUFAs had a more than fourfold higher hazard of diabetes (HR 4.26 [2.70-6.72]) and an AP of 0.46 (0.12-0.80) compared with antibody-negative individuals with high n-3 PUFAs.

Conclusions: High fish intake or relative plasma phospholipid n-3 PUFA concentrations may partially counteract the increased diabetes risk conferred by GAD65 antibody positivity.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.2337/dc20-1463DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7818317PMC
February 2021

Covid-19 mass testing: throwing the baby out with the bathwater?

BMJ 2020 Dec 10;371:m4782. Epub 2020 Dec 10.

School of Public Health, Imperial College London, and Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, London, UK.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m4782DOI Listing
December 2020

Plant foods, dietary fibre and risk of ischaemic heart disease in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort.

Int J Epidemiol 2021 03;50(1):212-222

Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section of Sustainable Health/Nutritional Research, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.

Background: Epidemiological evidence indicates that diets rich in plant foods are associated with a lower risk of ischaemic heart disease (IHD), but there is sparse information on fruit and vegetable subtypes and sources of dietary fibre. This study examined the associations of major plant foods, their subtypes and dietary fibre with risk of IHD in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC).

Methods: We conducted a prospective analysis of 490 311 men and women without a history of myocardial infarction or stroke at recruitment (12.6 years of follow-up, n cases = 8504), in 10 European countries. Dietary intake was assessed using validated questionnaires, calibrated with 24-h recalls. Multivariable Cox regressions were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) of IHD.

Results: There was a lower risk of IHD with a higher intake of fruit and vegetables combined [HR per 200 g/day higher intake 0.94, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.90-0.99, P-trend = 0.009], and with total fruits (per 100 g/day 0.97, 0.95-1.00, P-trend = 0.021). There was no evidence for a reduced risk for fruit subtypes, except for bananas. Risk was lower with higher intakes of nuts and seeds (per 10 g/day 0.90, 0.82-0.98, P-trend = 0.020), total fibre (per 10 g/day 0.91, 0.85-0.98, P-trend = 0.015), fruit and vegetable fibre (per 4 g/day 0.95, 0.91-0.99, P-trend = 0.022) and fruit fibre (per 2 g/day 0.97, 0.95-1.00, P-trend = 0.045). No associations were observed between vegetables, vegetables subtypes, legumes, cereals and IHD risk.

Conclusions: In this large prospective study, we found some small inverse associations between plant foods and IHD risk, with fruit and vegetables combined being the most strongly inversely associated with risk. Whether these small associations are causal remains unclear.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyaa155DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7938513PMC
March 2021

Cancer survivorship, excess body fatness and weight-loss intervention-where are we in 2020?

Br J Cancer 2021 Mar 25;124(6):1057-1065. Epub 2020 Nov 25.

Department of Sport, Exercise & Rehabilitation, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Northumbria University, Northumberland Building, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 8ST, UK.

Earlier diagnosis and more effective treatments mean that the estimated number of cancer survivors in the United Kingdom is expected to reach 4 million by 2030. However, there is an increasing realisation that excess body fatness (EBF) is likely to influence the quality of cancer survivorship and disease-free survival. For decades, the discussion of weight management in patients with cancer has been dominated by concerns about unintentional weight loss, low body weight and interventions to increase weight, often re-enforced by the existence of the obesity paradox, which indicates that high body weight is associated with survival benefits for some types of cancer. However, observational evidence provides strong grounds for testing the hypothesis that interventions for promoting intentional loss of body fat and maintaining skeletal muscle in overweight and obese cancer survivors would bring important health benefits in terms of survival outcomes and long-term impact on treatment-related side effects. In this paper, we outline the need for studies to improve our understanding of the health benefits of weight-loss interventions, such as hypocaloric healthy-eating plans combined with physical activity. In particular, complex intervention trials that are pragmatically designed are urgently needed to develop effective, clinically practical, evidence-based strategies for reducing EBF and optimising body composition in people living with and beyond common cancers.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41416-020-01155-2DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7961062PMC
March 2021

Cancer prevention through weight control-where are we in 2020?

Br J Cancer 2021 Mar 25;124(6):1049-1056. Epub 2020 Nov 25.

MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Oakfield House, Bristol, BS8 2BN, UK.

Growing data from epidemiological studies highlight the association between excess body fat and cancer incidence, but good indicative evidence demonstrates that intentional weight loss, as well as increasing physical activity, offers much promise as a cost-effective approach for reducing the cancer burden. However, clear gaps remain in our understanding of how changes in body fat or levels of physical activity are mechanistically linked to cancer, and the magnitude of their impact on cancer risk. It is important to investigate the causal link between programmes that successfully achieve short-term modest weight loss followed by weight-loss maintenance and cancer incidence. The longer-term impact of weight loss and duration of overweight and obesity on risk reduction also need to be fully considered in trial design. These gaps in knowledge need to be urgently addressed to expedite the development and implementation of future cancer-control strategies. Comprehensive approaches to trial design, Mendelian randomisation studies and data-linkage opportunities offer real possibilities to tackle current research gaps. In this paper, we set out the case for why non-pharmacological weight-management trials are urgently needed to support cancer-risk reduction and help control the growing global burden of cancer.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41416-020-01154-3DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7960959PMC
March 2021

Plasma Vitamin C and Type 2 Diabetes: Genome-Wide Association Study and Mendelian Randomization Analysis in European Populations.

Diabetes Care 2021 Jan 17;44(1):98-106. Epub 2020 Nov 17.

Unit of Nutrition and Cancer, Cancer Epidemiology Research Program and Translational Research Laboratory; Catalan Institute of Oncology - ICO, Group of Research on Nutrition and Cancer, Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute (IDIBELL), L'Hospitalet of Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain.

Objective: Higher plasma vitamin C levels are associated with lower type 2 diabetes risk, but whether this association is causal is uncertain. To investigate this, we studied the association of genetically predicted plasma vitamin C with type 2 diabetes.

Research Design And Methods: We conducted genome-wide association studies of plasma vitamin C among 52,018 individuals of European ancestry to discover novel genetic variants. We performed Mendelian randomization analyses to estimate the association of genetically predicted differences in plasma vitamin C with type 2 diabetes in up to 80,983 case participants and 842,909 noncase participants. We compared this estimate with the observational association between plasma vitamin C and incident type 2 diabetes, including 8,133 case participants and 11,073 noncase participants.

Results: We identified 11 genomic regions associated with plasma vitamin C ( < 5 × 10), with the strongest signal at , and 10 novel genetic loci including , , , , , , , , , and . Plasma vitamin C was inversely associated with type 2 diabetes (hazard ratio per SD 0.88; 95% CI 0.82, 0.94), but there was no association between genetically predicted plasma vitamin C (excluding variant due to its apparent pleiotropic effect) and type 2 diabetes (1.03; 95% CI 0.96, 1.10).

Conclusions: These findings indicate discordance between biochemically measured and genetically predicted plasma vitamin C levels in the association with type 2 diabetes among European populations. The null Mendelian randomization findings provide no strong evidence to suggest the use of vitamin C supplementation for type 2 diabetes prevention.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.2337/dc20-1328DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7783939PMC
January 2021