Publications by authors named "Daniel Prieto-Alhambra"

186 Publications

Reply: Dupuytren's Disease Predicts Increased All-Cause and Cancer-Specific Mortality: Analysis of a Large Cohort from the U.K. Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

Plast Reconstr Surg 2021 May;147(5):891e-892e

Botnar Research Centre, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology, and Musculoskeletal Sciences, Oxford University, Oxford, United Kingdom.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/PRS.0000000000007826DOI Listing
May 2021

Mortality, falls and fracture risk are positively associated with frailty: a SIDIAP cohort study of 890,000 patients.

J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci 2021 Apr 22. Epub 2021 Apr 22.

Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences Botnar Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford.

Background: Frail subjects are at increased risk of adverse outcomes. We aimed to assess their risk of falls, all-cause mortality, and fractures.

Methods: We used a retrospective cohort study using the SIDIAP database (>6 million residents). Subjects ≥75 years old with ≥1 year of valid data (2007- 2015) were included. Follow-up: from (the latest of) date of cohort entry up to migration, end of the study period or outcome (whichever came first). The eFRAGICAP classified subjects as Fit, Mild, Moderate or Severely Frail. Outcomes (ICD-10) were incident falls, fractures (overall/hip/vertebral) and all-cause mortality during the study period. Statistics: Hazard Ratios (HR), 95% CI adjusted (per age, sex and socio-economic status) and un-adjusted cause-specific Cox models, accounting for competing risk of death (Fit group as the reference).

Results: 893,211 subjects were analyzed. 54.4% were classified as Fit, 34.0% as mild, 9.9% as moderate and 1.6% as severely frail. Compared with the fit, frail had an increased risk of falls (adjusted HR of 1.55 (1.52-1.58), 2.74 (2.66-2.84) and 5.94 (5.52-6.40)), all-cause mortality (adjusted HR of 1.36 (1.35-1.37), 2.19 (2.16-2.23) and 4.29 (4.13-4.45)) and fractures (adjusted HR of 1.21(1.20-1.23), 1.51(1.47-1.55) and 2.36 (2.20-2.53)) for mild, moderate and severe frailty respectively. Severely frail had a high risk of vertebral (HR of 2.49 (1.99-3.11)) and hip fracture (HR of 1.85 (1.50-2.28)). Accounting for competing risk of death unchanged results.

Conclusion: Frail subjects are at increased risk of death, fractures and falls. The eFRAGICAP tool can easily assess frailty in electronic primary-care databases in Spain.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gerona/glab102DOI Listing
April 2021

Corrigendum to: Higher prevalence of non-skeletal comorbidity related to X-linked hypophosphataemia: a UK parallel cohort study using CPRD.

Rheumatology (Oxford) 2021 Apr 14. Epub 2021 Apr 14.

Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/rheumatology/keab321DOI Listing
April 2021

The case for an academic discipline of medical device science.

EFORT Open Rev 2021 Mar 1;6(3):160-163. Epub 2021 Mar 1.

Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

Medical devices are a very important but largely under-recognized and fragmented component of healthcare.The limited regulation of the past and the lack of systematic rigorous evaluation of devices leading to numerous high-profile failures will now be replaced by stricter legal requirements and more transparent evaluation processes.This constitutes an unprecedented opportunity, but it also uncovers urgent needs in landscaping, methodology development, and independent comprehensive assessment of device risks and benefits for individual patients and society, especially in the context of increasingly complex devices.We argue that an academic discipline of 'medical device science' is well placed to lead and coordinate the efforts necessary to achieve much needed improvement in the medical device sector.Orthopaedics and traumatology could contribute and benefit considerably as one of the medical specialties with the highest use of medical devices. Cite this article: 2021;6:160-163. DOI: 10.1302/2058-5241.6.200094.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1302/2058-5241.6.200094DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8025702PMC
March 2021

Alpha-1 blockers and susceptibility to COVID-19 in benign prostate hyperplasia patients : an international cohort study.

medRxiv 2021 Mar 24. Epub 2021 Mar 24.

Alpha-1 blockers, often used to treat benign prostate hyperplasia (BPH), have been hypothesized to prevent COVID-19 complications by minimising cytokine storms release. We conducted a prevalent-user active-comparator cohort study to assess association between alpha-1 blocker use and risks of three COVID-19 outcomes: diagnosis, hospitalization, and hospitalization requiring intensive services. Our study included 2.6 and 0.46 million users of alpha-1 blockers and of alternative BPH therapy during the period between November 2019 and January 2020, found in electronic health records from Spain (SIDIAP) and the United States (Department of Veterans Affairs, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, IQVIA OpenClaims, Optum DOD, Optum EHR). We estimated hazard ratios using state-of-the-art techniques to minimize potential confounding, including large-scale propensity score matching/stratification and negative control calibration. We found no differential risk for any of COVID-19 outcome, pointing to the need for further research on potential COVID-19 therapies.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2021.03.18.21253778DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8010772PMC
March 2021

Characterizing the incidence of adverse events of special interest for COVID-19 vaccines across eight countries: a multinational network cohort study.

medRxiv 2021 Mar 28. Epub 2021 Mar 28.

Background: As large-scale immunization programs against COVID-19 proceed around the world, safety signals will emerge that need rapid evaluation. We report population-based, age- and sex- specific background incidence rates of potential adverse events of special interest (AESI) in eight countries using thirteen databases.

Methods: This multi-national network cohort study included eight electronic medical record and five administrative claims databases from Australia, France, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States, mapped to a common data model. People observed for at least 365 days before 1 January 2017, 2018, or 2019 were included. We based study outcomes on lists published by regulators: acute myocardial infarction, anaphylaxis, appendicitis, Bell's palsy, deep vein thrombosis, disseminated intravascular coagulation, encephalomyelitis, Guillain-Barre syndrome, hemorrhagic and non-hemorrhagic stroke, immune thrombocytopenia, myocarditis/pericarditis, narcolepsy, pulmonary embolism, and transverse myelitis. We calculated incidence rates stratified by age, sex, and database. We pooled rates across databases using random effects meta-analyses. We classified meta-analytic estimates into Council of International Organizations of Medical Sciences categories: very common, common, uncommon, rare, or very rare.

Findings: We analysed 126,661,070 people. Rates varied greatly between databases and by age and sex. Some AESI (e.g., myocardial infarction, Guillain-Barre syndrome) increased with age, while others (e.g., anaphylaxis, appendicitis) were more common in young people. As a result, AESI were classified differently according to age. For example, myocardial infarction was very rare in children, rare in women aged 35-54 years, uncommon in men and women aged 55-84 years, and common in those aged ≥85 years.

Interpretation: We report robust baseline rates of prioritised AESI across 13 databases. Age, sex, and variation between databases should be considered if background AESI rates are compared to event rates observed with COVID-19 vaccines.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2021.03.25.21254315DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8010764PMC
March 2021

Bisphosphonates to reduce bone fractures in stage 3B+ chronic kidney disease: a propensity score-matched cohort study.

Health Technol Assess 2021 Mar;25(17):1-106

Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

Background: Bisphosphonates are contraindicated in patients with stage 4+ chronic kidney disease. However, they are widely used to prevent fragility fractures in stage 3 chronic kidney disease, despite a lack of good-quality data on their effects.

Objectives: The aims of each work package were as follows. Work package 1: to study the relationship between bisphosphonate use and chronic kidney disease progression. Work package 2: to study the association between using bisphosphonates and fracture risk. Work package 3: to determine the risks of hypocalcaemia, hypophosphataemia, acute kidney injury and upper gastrointestinal events associated with using bisphosphonates. Work package 4: to investigate the association between using bisphosphonates and changes in bone mineral density over time.

Design: This was a new-user cohort study design with propensity score matching.

Setting And Data Sources: Data were obtained from UK NHS primary care (Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD database) and linked hospital inpatient records (Hospital Episode Statistics) for work packages 1-3 and from the Danish Odense University Hospital Databases for work package 4.

Participants: Patients registered in the data sources who had at least one measurement of estimated glomerular filtration rate of < 45 ml/minute/1.73 m were eligible. A second estimated glomerular filtration rate value of < 45 ml/minute/1.73 m within 1 year after the first was requested for work packages 1 and 3. Patients with no Hospital Episode Statistics linkage were excluded from work packages 1-3. Patients with < 1 year of run-in data before index estimated glomerular filtration rate and previous users of anti-osteoporosis medications were excluded from work packages 1-4.

Interventions/exposure: Bisphosphonate use, identified from primary care prescriptions (for work packages 1-3) or pharmacy dispensations (for work package 4), was the main exposure.

Main Outcome Measures: Work package 1: chronic kidney disease progression, defined as stage worsening or starting renal replacement. Work package 2: hip fracture. Work package 3: acute kidney injury, hypocalcaemia and hypophosphataemia identified from Hospital Episode Statistics, and gastrointestinal events identified from Clinical Practice Research Datalink or Hospital Episode Statistics. Work package 4: annualised femoral neck bone mineral density percentage change.

Results: Bisphosphonate use was associated with an excess risk of chronic kidney disease progression (subdistribution hazard ratio 1.12, 95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.24) in work package 1, but did not increase the probability of other safety outcomes in work package 3. The results from work package 2 suggested that bisphosphonate use increased fracture risk (hazard ratio 1.25, 95% confidence interval 1.13 to 1.39) for hip fractures, but sensitivity analyses suggested that this was related to unresolved confounding. Conversely, work package 4 suggested that bisphosphonates improved bone mineral density, with an average 2.65% (95% confidence interval 1.32% to 3.99%) greater gain in femoral neck bone mineral density per year in bisphosphonate users than in matched non-users.

Limitations: Confounding by indication was a concern for the clinical effectiveness (i.e. work package 2) data. Bias analyses suggested that these findings were due to inappropriate adjustment for pre-treatment risk. work packages 3 and 4 were based on small numbers of events and participants, respectively.

Conclusions: Bisphosphonates were associated with a 12% excess risk of chronic kidney disease progression in participants with stage 3B+ chronic kidney disease. No other safety concerns were identified. Bisphosphonate therapy increased bone mineral density, but the research team failed to demonstrate antifracture effectiveness.

Future Work: Randomised controlled trial data are needed to demonstrate antifracture efficacy in patients with stage 3B+ chronic kidney disease. More safety analyses are needed to characterise the renal toxicity of bisphosphonates in stage 3A chronic kidney disease, possibly using observational data.

Study Registration: This study is registered as EUPAS10029.

Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in ; Vol. 25, No. 17. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information. The project was also supported by the National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre, Oxford.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.3310/hta25170DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8020200PMC
March 2021

COVID-19 in patients with autoimmune diseases: characteristics and outcomes in a multinational network of cohorts across three countries.

Rheumatology (Oxford) 2021 Mar 16. Epub 2021 Mar 16.

Real-World Evidence, Trial, Barcelona, Spain, Form Support.

Objective: Patients with autoimmune diseases were advised to shield to avoid COVID-19, but information on their prognosis is lacking. We characterised 30-day outcomes and mortality after hospitalisation with COVID-19 among patients with prevalent autoimmune diseases, and compared outcomes after hospital admissions among similar patients with seasonal influenza.

Methods: A multinational network cohort study was conducted using electronic health records data from Columbia University Irving Medical Center (CUIMC) (United States [US]), Optum [US], Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) (US), Information System for Research in Primary Care-Hospitalisation Linked Data (SIDIAP-H) (Spain), and claims data from IQVIA Open Claims (US) and Health Insurance and Review Assessment (HIRA) (South Korea). All patients with prevalent autoimmune diseases, diagnosed and/or hospitalised between January and June 2020 with COVID-19, and similar patients hospitalised with influenza in 2017-2018 were included. Outcomes were death and complications within 30 days of hospitalisation.

Results: We studied 133 589 patients diagnosed and 48 418 hospitalised with COVID-19 with prevalent autoimmune diseases. Most patients were female, aged ≥50 years with previous comorbidities. The prevalence of hypertension (45.5-93.2%), chronic kidney disease (14.0-52.7%) and heart disease (29.0-83.8%) was higher in hospitalised vs diagnosed patients with COVID-19. Compared with 70 660 hospitalised with influenza, those admitted with COVID-19 had more respiratory complications including pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome, and higher 30-day mortality (2.2% to 4.3% vs 6.3% to 24.6%).

Conclusions: Compared with influenza, COVID-19 is a more severe disease, leading to more complications and higher mortality.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/rheumatology/keab250DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7989171PMC
March 2021

Unraveling COVID-19: a large-scale characterization of 4.5 million COVID-19 cases using CHARYBDIS.

Res Sq 2021 Mar 1. Epub 2021 Mar 1.

Routinely collected real world data (RWD) have great utility in aiding the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic response [1,2]. Here we present the international Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics (OHDSI) [3] Characterizing Health Associated Risks, and Your Baseline Disease In SARS-COV-2 (CHARYBDIS) framework for standardisation and analysis of COVID-19 RWD. We conducted a descriptive cohort study using a federated network of data partners in the United States, Europe (the Netherlands, Spain, the UK, Germany, France and Italy) and Asia (South Korea and China). The study protocol and analytical package were released on 11 June 2020 and are iteratively updated via GitHub [4]. We identified three non-mutually exclusive cohorts of 4,537,153 individuals with a clinical 886,193 , and 113,627 . All comorbidities, symptoms, medications, and outcomes are described by cohort in aggregate counts, and are available in an interactive website: https://data.ohdsi.org/Covid19CharacterizationCharybdis/. CHARYBDIS findings provide benchmarks that contribute to our understanding of COVID-19 progression, management and evolution over time. This can enable timely assessment of real-world outcomes of preventative and therapeutic options as they are introduced in clinical practice.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-279400/v1DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7941629PMC
March 2021

Implementation of the COVID-19 Vulnerability Index Across an International Network of Health Care Data Sets: Collaborative External Validation Study.

JMIR Med Inform 2021 Apr 5;9(4):e21547. Epub 2021 Apr 5.

Department of Biomedical Informatics, Ajou University School of Medicine, Suwon, Republic of Korea.

Background: SARS-CoV-2 is straining health care systems globally. The burden on hospitals during the pandemic could be reduced by implementing prediction models that can discriminate patients who require hospitalization from those who do not. The COVID-19 vulnerability (C-19) index, a model that predicts which patients will be admitted to hospital for treatment of pneumonia or pneumonia proxies, has been developed and proposed as a valuable tool for decision-making during the pandemic. However, the model is at high risk of bias according to the "prediction model risk of bias assessment" criteria, and it has not been externally validated.

Objective: The aim of this study was to externally validate the C-19 index across a range of health care settings to determine how well it broadly predicts hospitalization due to pneumonia in COVID-19 cases.

Methods: We followed the Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics (OHDSI) framework for external validation to assess the reliability of the C-19 index. We evaluated the model on two different target populations, 41,381 patients who presented with SARS-CoV-2 at an outpatient or emergency department visit and 9,429,285 patients who presented with influenza or related symptoms during an outpatient or emergency department visit, to predict their risk of hospitalization with pneumonia during the following 0-30 days. In total, we validated the model across a network of 14 databases spanning the United States, Europe, Australia, and Asia.

Results: The internal validation performance of the C-19 index had a C statistic of 0.73, and the calibration was not reported by the authors. When we externally validated it by transporting it to SARS-CoV-2 data, the model obtained C statistics of 0.36, 0.53 (0.473-0.584) and 0.56 (0.488-0.636) on Spanish, US, and South Korean data sets, respectively. The calibration was poor, with the model underestimating risk. When validated on 12 data sets containing influenza patients across the OHDSI network, the C statistics ranged between 0.40 and 0.68.

Conclusions: Our results show that the discriminative performance of the C-19 index model is low for influenza cohorts and even worse among patients with COVID-19 in the United States, Spain, and South Korea. These results suggest that C-19 should not be used to aid decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings highlight the importance of performing external validation across a range of settings, especially when a prediction model is being extrapolated to a different population. In the field of prediction, extensive validation is required to create appropriate trust in a model.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.2196/21547DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8023380PMC
April 2021

Revision and 90-day mortality following hip arthroplasty in patients with inflammatory arthritis and ankylosing spondylitis enrolled in the National Joint Registry for England and Wales.

Hip Int 2021 Feb 18:1120700021990592. Epub 2021 Feb 18.

Norwich Medical School, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK.

Aim: To assess revision rates and postoperative mortality in patients undergoing hip arthroplasty (HA) for inflammatory arthritis compared to hip osteoarthritis (OA).

Methods: The analysis was conducted among cases of HA that were recorded in the National Joint Registry for England and Wales (NJR) between April 2003 and December 2012 and linked to Office for National Statistics mortality records. Procedures were identified where the indication for surgery was listed as seropositive rheumatoid arthritis (RA), ankylosing spondylitis (AS), other inflammatory arthritis (otherIA), or OA. 5-year revision risk and 90-day postoperative mortality according to indication were compared using Cox regression models adjusted for age, sex, American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grade, year of operation, implant type, and surgical approach.

Results: The cohort included 1457 HA procedures conducted for RA, 615 for AS, 1000 for otherIA, and 183,108 for OA. When compared with OA, there was no increased revision risk for any form of inflammatory arthritis (adjusted HRs: RA: 0.93 (0.64-1.35); AS: 1.14 (0.73-1.79); otherIA: 1.08 (0.73-1.59)). Postoperative 90-day mortality was increased for RA when compared with OA (adjusted HR: 2.86 (1.68-4.88)), but not for AS (adjusted HR: 1.56 (0.59-4.18)) or otherIA (adjusted HR: 0.64 (0.16-2.55)).

Conclusions: The revision risk in HA performed for all types of inflammatory arthritis is similar to that for HA performed for OA. The 3-fold increased risk of 90-day mortality in patients with RA compared with OA highlights the need for active management of associated comorbidities in RA patients during the perioperative period.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1120700021990592DOI Listing
February 2021

Growing backlog of planned surgery due to covid-19.

BMJ 2021 02 9;372:n339. Epub 2021 Feb 9.

Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, Botnar Research Centre, Oxford, UK.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n339DOI Listing
February 2021

Estimating the population health burden of musculoskeletal conditions using primary care electronic health records.

Rheumatology (Oxford) 2021 Feb 9. Epub 2021 Feb 9.

Primary Care Centre Versus Arthritis, School of Medicine, Keele University, UK.

Objectives: Better indicators from affordable, sustainable data sources are needed to monitor population burden of musculoskeletal conditions. We propose five indicators of musculoskeletal health and assessed if routinely available primary care electronic health records (EHR) can estimate population levels in musculoskeletal consulters.

Methods: We collected validated patient-reported measures of pain experience, function, health status through a local survey of adults (≧34 years) presenting to English general practices over 12-months for low back pain (LBP), shoulder pain, osteoarthritis and other regional musculoskeletal disorders. Using EHR data we derived and validated models for estimating population-levels of five self-reported indicators: prevalence of high impact chronic pain, overall musculoskeletal health (based on Musculoskeletal Health Questionnaire), quality of life (based on EuroQoL health utility measure), and prevalence of moderate-to-severe LBP pain, and moderate-to-severe shoulder pain. We applied models to a national EHR database (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) to obtain national estimates of each indicator for three successive years.

Results: The optimal models included recorded demographics, deprivation, consultation frequency, analgesic and antidepressant prescriptions, and multimorbidity. Applying models to national EHR, we estimated that 31.9% of adults (≧34 years) presenting with non-inflammatory musculoskeletal disorders in England in 2016/17 experienced high impact chronic pain. Estimated population health levels were worse in women, older aged, and those in the most deprived neighbourhoods, and changed little over three years.

Conclusion: National and subnational estimates for a range of subjective indicators of non-inflammatory musculoskeletal health conditions can be obtained using information from routine electronic health records.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/rheumatology/keab109DOI Listing
February 2021

The natural history of symptomatic COVID-19 during the first wave in Catalonia.

Nat Commun 2021 02 3;12(1):777. Epub 2021 Feb 3.

Fundació Institut Universitari per a la recerca a l'Atenció Primària de Salut Jordi Gol i Gurina (IDIAPJGol), Barcelona, Spain.

The natural history of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has yet to be fully described. Here, we use patient-level data from the Information System for Research in Primary Care (SIDIAP) to summarise COVID-19 outcomes in Catalonia, Spain. We included 5,586,521 individuals from the general population. Of these, 102,002 had an outpatient diagnosis of COVID-19, 16,901 were hospitalised with COVID-19, and 5273 died after either being diagnosed or hospitalised with COVID-19 between 1st March and 6th May 2020. Older age, being male, and having comorbidities were all generally associated with worse outcomes. These findings demonstrate the continued need to protect those at high risk of poor outcomes, particularly older people, from COVID-19 and provide appropriate care for those who develop symptomatic disease. While risks of hospitalisation and death were lower for younger populations, there is a need to limit their role in community transmission.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21100-yDOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7858639PMC
February 2021

Temporal relationship between osteoarthritis and comorbidities: a combined case control and cohort study in the UK primary care setting.

Rheumatology (Oxford) 2021 Jan 28. Epub 2021 Jan 28.

Academic Rheumatology, Division of Rheumatology, Orthopaedics and Dermatology, University of Nottingham, UK.

Objective: To determine the burden of comorbidities in osteoarthritis (OA) and their temporal relationships in the UK.

Methods: The Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD was used to identify people with incident OA and age, gender and practice matched non-OA controls from UK primary care. Controls were assigned the same index date as matched cases (date of OA diagnosis). Associations between OA and 49 individual comorbidities and multimorbidity (≥2 comorbidities excluding OA) both before and after OA diagnosis were estimated, adjusting for covariates, using odds ratios (aOR) and hazard ratios (aHR) respectively.

Results: During 1997-2017, we identified 221 807 incident OA cases and 221 807 matched controls. Of 49 comorbidities examined, 38 were associated with OA both prior to, and following, the diagnosis of OA, and 2 (dementia and SLE) were associated with OA only following the diagnosis of OA. People with OA had higher risk of developing heart failure (aHR 1.63; 95% CI 1.56-1.71), dementia (aHR 1.62; 95% CI 1.56-1.68), liver diseases (aHR 1.51; 95% CI 1.37-1.67), irritable bowel syndrome (aHR 1.51; 95% CI 1.45-1.58), gastrointestinal bleeding (aHR 1.49; 95% CI 1.39-1.59), 10 musculoskeletal conditions and 25 other conditions following OA diagnosis. The aOR for multimorbidity prior to the index date was 1.71 (95% CI 1.69-1.74), whereas the aHR for multimorbidity after the index date was 1.29 (95% CI 1.28-1.30).

Conclusions: People with OA are more likely to have other chronic conditions both before and after the OA diagnosis. Further study on shared aetiology and causality of these associations is needed.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/rheumatology/keab067DOI Listing
January 2021

Low rate of subsequent surgery and serious complications following intra-articular steroid injection for base of thumb osteoarthritis: national cohort analysis.

Rheumatology (Oxford) 2021 Jan 7. Epub 2021 Jan 7.

Oxford NIHR Musculoskeletal Biomedical Research Unit, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, Nuffield Orthopaedic Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

Objectives: Intra-articular steroid injection is commonly used to treat base of thumb osteoarthritis (BTOA), despite a lack of large scale data on safety and effectiveness. We estimate the incidence of serious complications and further procedures following BTOA injection, including the risk of post-operative serious surgical site infection for subsequent operative intervention.

Methods: Hospital Episode Statistics data linked to mortality records from 01/04/1998-31/03/2017 were used to identify all BTOA injections undertaken in adults in the National Health Service secondary care in England. Patients were followed up longitudinally until death or 31/03/2017. A multivariable regression with a Fine and Gray model adjusting for the competing risk of mortality in addition to age, sex and socioeconomic deprivation was used to identify factors associated with progression to further procedure. Secondary outcomes included serious complications after injection and subsequent surgical site infection.

Results: 19120 primary injections were performed during the 19-year period in 18356 patients. 76.5% were female; mean age 62 years (SD 10.6).50.48% underwent further procedure; 22.40% underwent surgery. Median time to further intervention was 412 days (IQR 110-1945). Female sex was associated with increased risk of proceeding to surgery. Serious complication rate following injection was 0.04% (0.01-0.08) within 90 days. Of those proceeding to surgery, 0.16% (0.06-0.34) presented with a wound infection within 30 days and 90 days, compared with an overall post-operative wound infection rate of 0.03% (0.02-0.05).

Conclusions: Very low rates of serious complications were identified following BTOA injections performed in secondary care; only one in five patients proceeded to subsequent surgery.

Clinical Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov, https://www.clinicaltrials.gov, NCT03573765.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/rheumatology/keaa925DOI Listing
January 2021

Serious postoperative complications and reoperation after carpal tunnel decompression surgery in England: a nationwide cohort analysis.

Lancet Rheumatol 2021 Jan 30;3(1):e49-e57. Epub 2020 Sep 30.

Oxford National Institute for Health Research Musculoskeletal Biomedical Research Unit, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology, and Musculoskeletal Sciences, Nuffield Orthopaedic Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

Background: Carpal tunnel decompression surgery to treat carpal tunnel syndrome is a common procedure, yet data on safety and effectiveness of the operation in the general population remain scarce. We aimed to estimate the incidence of reoperation and serious postoperative complications (requiring admission to hospital or further surgery) following carpal tunnel decompression in routine clinical practice and to identify the patient factors associated with these adverse outcomes.

Methods: We did a nationwide cohort analysis including all carpal tunnel decompression surgeries in patients aged 18 years or older, done in the National Health Service in England between April 1, 1998, and March 31, 2017, using the Hospital Episode Statistics dataset linked to mortality records. Patients were followed-up until death or until the end of the study (March 31, 2017). Primary outcomes were the overall incidence of carpal tunnel decompression reoperation and serious postoperative complications (surgical site infection or dehiscence, or neurovascular or tendon injury, requiring admission to hospital or further surgery) within 30 days and 90 days after surgery. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to identify factors influencing complications and reoperation, and the Fine and Gray method was used to adjust for the competing risk of mortality. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03573765.

Findings: 855 832 carpal tunnel decompression surgeries were done between April 1, 1998, and March 31, 2017 (incidence rate 1·10 per 1000 person-years [95% CI 1·02-1·17]). 29 288 procedures (3·42%) led to carpal tunnel decompression reoperation (incidence rate 3·18 per 1000 person-years [95% CI 3·12-3·23]). Of the 855 832 initial surgeries, 620 procedures (0·070% [95% CI 0·067-0·078]) led to a serious complication within 30 days after surgery, and 698 procedures (0·082% [0·076-0·088]) within 90 days. Local complications within 90 days after surgery were associated with male sex (adjusted hazard ratio 2·32 [95% CI 1·74-3·09]) and age category 18-29 years (2·25 [1·10-4·62]). Male sex (adjusted subhazard ratio 1·09 [95% CI 1·06-1·13]), old age (>80 years 50-59 years: 1·09 [1·03-1·15]), and greater levels of comorbidity (Charlson score ≥5 0: 1·25 [1·19-1·32]) and socioeconomic deprivation (most deprived 10% least deprived 10%: 1·18 [1·10-1·27]) were associated with increased reoperation risk.

Interpretation: To our knowledge, this is the largest national study on carpal tunnel decompression to date, providing strong evidence on serious postoperative complication and reoperation rates. Carpal tunnel decompression appears to be a safe operation in most patients, with an overall serious complication rate (requiring admission to hospital or further surgery) of less than 0·1%.

Funding: Versus Arthritis; Medical Research Council; Royal College of Surgeons of England and National Joint Registry research fellowship; University of Oxford; National Institute for Health Research; and National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre, Oxford.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2665-9913(20)30238-1DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7762724PMC
January 2021

Safety of Oral Bisphosphonates in Moderate-to-Severe Chronic Kidney Disease: A Binational Cohort Analysis.

J Bone Miner Res 2020 Dec 29. Epub 2020 Dec 29.

Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences (NDORMS), University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

Bisphosphonates are the first-line treatment for preventing fractures in osteoporosis patients. However, their use is contraindicated or to be used with caution in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients, primarily because of a lack of information about their safety and effectiveness. We aimed to investigate the safety of oral bisphosphonates in patients with moderate to severe CKD, using primary-care electronic records from two cohorts, CPRD GOLD (1997-2016) and SIDIAP (2007-2015) in the UK and Catalonia, respectively. Both databases were linked to hospital records. SIDIAP was also linked to end-stage renal disease registry data. Patients with CKD stages 3b to 5, based on two or more estimated glomerular filtration rate measurements less than 45 mL/min/1.73 m , aged 40 years or older were identified. New bisphosphonate users were propensity score-matched with up to five non-users to minimize confounding within this population. Our primary outcome was CKD stage worsening (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] decline or renal replacement therapy). Secondary outcomes were acute kidney injury, gastrointestinal bleeding/ulcers, and severe hypocalcemia. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using Cox regression and Fine and Gray sub-HRs were calculated for competing risks. We matched 2447 bisphosphonate users with 8931 non-users from CPRD and 1399 users with 6547 non-users from SIDIAP. Bisphosphonate use was associated with greater risk of CKD progression in CPRD (sub-HR [95% CI]: 1.14 [1.04, 1.26]) and SIDIAP (sub-HR: 1.15 [1.04, 1.27]). No risk differences were found for acute kidney injury, gastrointestinal bleeding/ulcers, or hypocalcemia. Hence, we can conclude a modest (15%) increased risk of CKD progression was identified in association with bisphosphonate use. No other safety concerns were identified. Our findings should be considered before prescribing bisphosphonates to patients with moderate to severe CKD. © 2020 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jbmr.4235DOI Listing
December 2020

Safety of Oral Bisphosphonates in Moderate-to-Severe Chronic Kidney Disease: A Binational Cohort Analysis.

J Bone Miner Res 2020 Dec 29. Epub 2020 Dec 29.

Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences (NDORMS), University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

Bisphosphonates are the first-line treatment for preventing fractures in osteoporosis patients. However, their use is contraindicated or to be used with caution in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients, primarily because of a lack of information about their safety and effectiveness. We aimed to investigate the safety of oral bisphosphonates in patients with moderate to severe CKD, using primary-care electronic records from two cohorts, CPRD GOLD (1997-2016) and SIDIAP (2007-2015) in the UK and Catalonia, respectively. Both databases were linked to hospital records. SIDIAP was also linked to end-stage renal disease registry data. Patients with CKD stages 3b to 5, based on two or more estimated glomerular filtration rate measurements less than 45 mL/min/1.73 m , aged 40 years or older were identified. New bisphosphonate users were propensity score-matched with up to five non-users to minimize confounding within this population. Our primary outcome was CKD stage worsening (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] decline or renal replacement therapy). Secondary outcomes were acute kidney injury, gastrointestinal bleeding/ulcers, and severe hypocalcemia. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using Cox regression and Fine and Gray sub-HRs were calculated for competing risks. We matched 2447 bisphosphonate users with 8931 non-users from CPRD and 1399 users with 6547 non-users from SIDIAP. Bisphosphonate use was associated with greater risk of CKD progression in CPRD (sub-HR [95% CI]: 1.14 [1.04, 1.26]) and SIDIAP (sub-HR: 1.15 [1.04, 1.27]). No risk differences were found for acute kidney injury, gastrointestinal bleeding/ulcers, or hypocalcemia. Hence, we can conclude a modest (15%) increased risk of CKD progression was identified in association with bisphosphonate use. No other safety concerns were identified. Our findings should be considered before prescribing bisphosphonates to patients with moderate to severe CKD. © 2020 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jbmr.4235DOI Listing
December 2020

Renin-angiotensin system blockers and susceptibility to COVID-19: an international, open science, cohort analysis.

Lancet Digit Health 2021 02 17;3(2):e98-e114. Epub 2020 Dec 17.

Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

Background: Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) have been postulated to affect susceptibility to COVID-19. Observational studies so far have lacked rigorous ascertainment adjustment and international generalisability. We aimed to determine whether use of ACEIs or ARBs is associated with an increased susceptibility to COVID-19 in patients with hypertension.

Methods: In this international, open science, cohort analysis, we used electronic health records from Spain (Information Systems for Research in Primary Care [SIDIAP]) and the USA (Columbia University Irving Medical Center data warehouse [CUIMC] and Department of Veterans Affairs Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership [VA-OMOP]) to identify patients aged 18 years or older with at least one prescription for ACEIs and ARBs (target cohort) or calcium channel blockers (CCBs) and thiazide or thiazide-like diuretics (THZs; comparator cohort) between Nov 1, 2019, and Jan 31, 2020. Users were defined separately as receiving either monotherapy with these four drug classes, or monotherapy or combination therapy (combination use) with other antihypertensive medications. We assessed four outcomes: COVID-19 diagnosis; hospital admission with COVID-19; hospital admission with pneumonia; and hospital admission with pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, acute kidney injury, or sepsis. We built large-scale propensity score methods derived through a data-driven approach and negative control experiments across ten pairwise comparisons, with results meta-analysed to generate 1280 study effects. For each study effect, we did negative control outcome experiments using a possible 123 controls identified through a data-rich algorithm. This process used a set of predefined baseline patient characteristics to provide the most accurate prediction of treatment and balance among patient cohorts across characteristics. The study is registered with the EU Post-Authorisation Studies register, EUPAS35296.

Findings: Among 1 355 349 antihypertensive users (363 785 ACEI or ARB monotherapy users, 248 915 CCB or THZ monotherapy users, 711 799 ACEI or ARB combination users, and 473 076 CCB or THZ combination users) included in analyses, no association was observed between COVID-19 diagnosis and exposure to ACEI or ARB monotherapy versus CCB or THZ monotherapy (calibrated hazard ratio [HR] 0·98, 95% CI 0·84-1·14) or combination use exposure (1·01, 0·90-1·15). ACEIs alone similarly showed no relative risk difference when compared with CCB or THZ monotherapy (HR 0·91, 95% CI 0·68-1·21; with heterogeneity of >40%) or combination use (0·95, 0·83-1·07). Directly comparing ACEIs with ARBs demonstrated a moderately lower risk with ACEIs, which was significant with combination use (HR 0·88, 95% CI 0·79-0·99) and non-significant for monotherapy (0·85, 0·69-1·05). We observed no significant difference between drug classes for risk of hospital admission with COVID-19, hospital admission with pneumonia, or hospital admission with pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, acute kidney injury, or sepsis across all comparisons.

Interpretation: No clinically significant increased risk of COVID-19 diagnosis or hospital admission-related outcomes associated with ACEI or ARB use was observed, suggesting users should not discontinue or change their treatment to decrease their risk of COVID-19.

Funding: Wellcome Trust, UK National Institute for Health Research, US National Institutes of Health, US Department of Veterans Affairs, Janssen Research & Development, IQVIA, South Korean Ministry of Health and Welfare Republic, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, and European Health Data and Evidence Network.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2589-7500(20)30289-2DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7834915PMC
February 2021

Higher prevalence of non-skeletal comorbidity related to X-linked hypophosphataemia: a UK parallel cohort study using CPRD.

Rheumatology (Oxford) 2020 Dec 17. Epub 2020 Dec 17.

Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

Objectives: X-Linked hypophosphataemic rickets (XLH) is a rare multisystemic disease of mineral homeostasis that has a prominent skeletal phenotype. The aim of this study was to describe additional comorbidities in XLH patients compared with general population controls.

Methods: The Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD was used to identify a cohort of XLH patients (1995-2016), along with a non-XLH cohort matched (1:4) on age, sex and GP practice. Using the CALIBER portal, phenotyping algorithms were used to identify the first diagnosis (and associated age) of 273 comorbid conditions during patient follow-up. Fifteen major disease categories were used and the proportion of patients having ≥1 diagnosis was compared between cohorts for each category and condition. Main analyses were repeated according to Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD).

Results: There were 64 and 256 patients in the XLH and non-XLH cohorts, respectively. There was increased prevalence of endocrine (OR 3.46 [95% CI: 1.44-8.31]) and neurological (OR 3.01 [95% CI: 1.41-6.44] disorders among XLH patients. Across all specific comorbidities, four were at least twice as likely to be present in XLH cases, but only depression met the Bonferroni threshold: OR 2.95 [95%CI: 1.47-5.92]. Distribution of IMD among XLH cases indicated greater deprivation than the general population.

Conclusion: We describe a higher risk of mental illness in XLH patients compared with matched controls, and greater than expected deprivation. These findings may have implications for clinical practice guidelines and decisions around health and social care provision for these patients.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/rheumatology/keaa859DOI Listing
December 2020

Use of dialysis, tracheostomy, and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation among 240,392 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in the United States.

medRxiv 2020 Nov 27. Epub 2020 Nov 27.

Objective: To estimate the proportion of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 who undergo dialysis, tracheostomy, and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO).

Design: A network cohort study.

Setting: Six databases from the United States containing routinely-collected patient data: HealthVerity, Premier, IQVIA Open Claims, Optum EHR, Optum SES, and VA-OMOP.

Patients: Patients hospitalized with a clinical diagnosis or a positive test result for COVID-19.

Interventions: Dialysis, tracheostomy, and ECMO.

Measurements And Main Results: 240,392 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 were included (22,887 from HealthVerity, 139,971 from IQVIA Open Claims, 29,061 from Optum EHR, 4,336 from OPTUM SES, 36,019 from Premier, and 8,118 from VA-OMOP). Across the six databases, 9,703 (4.04% [95% CI: 3.96% to 4.11%]) patients received dialysis, 1,681 (0.70% [0.67% to 0.73%]) had a tracheostomy, and 398 (0.17% [95% CI: 0.15% to 0.18%]) patients underwent ECMO over the 30 days following hospitalization. Use of ECMO was generally concentrated among patients who were younger, male, and with fewer comorbidities except for obesity. Tracheostomy was used for a similar proportion of patients regardless of age, sex, or comorbidity. While dialysis was used for a similar proportion among younger and older patients, it was more frequent among male patients and among those with chronic kidney disease.

Conclusion: Use of dialysis among those hospitalized with COVID-19 is high at around 4%. Although less than one percent of patients undergo tracheostomy and ECMO, the absolute numbers of patients who have undergone these interventions is substantial and can be expected to continue grow given the continuing spread of the COVID-19.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.25.20229088DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7709172PMC
November 2020

Characteristics, outcomes, and mortality amongst 133,589 patients with prevalent autoimmune diseases diagnosed with, and 48,418 hospitalised for COVID-19: a multinational distributed network cohort analysis.

medRxiv 2020 Nov 27. Epub 2020 Nov 27.

Objective: Patients with autoimmune diseases were advised to shield to avoid COVID-19, but information on their prognosis is lacking. We characterised 30-day outcomes and mortality after hospitalisation with COVID-19 among patients with prevalent autoimmune diseases, and compared outcomes after hospital admissions among similar patients with seasonal influenza.

Design: Multinational network cohort study.

Setting: Electronic health records data from Columbia University Irving Medical Center (CUIMC) (NYC, United States [US]), Optum [US], Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) (US), Information System for Research in Primary Care-Hospitalisation Linked Data (SIDIAP-H) (Spain), and claims data from IQVIA Open Claims (US) and Health Insurance and Review Assessment (HIRA) (South Korea).

Participants: All patients with prevalent autoimmune diseases, diagnosed and/or hospitalised between January and June 2020 with COVID-19, and similar patients hospitalised with influenza in 2017-2018 were included.

Main Outcome Measures: 30-day complications during hospitalisation and death.

Results: We studied 133,589 patients diagnosed and 48,418 hospitalised with COVID-19 with prevalent autoimmune diseases. The majority of participants were female (60.5% to 65.9%) and aged ≥50 years. The most prevalent autoimmune conditions were psoriasis (3.5 to 32.5%), rheumatoid arthritis (3.9 to 18.9%), and vasculitis (3.3 to 17.6%). Amongst hospitalised patients, Type 1 diabetes was the most common autoimmune condition (4.8% to 7.5%) in US databases, rheumatoid arthritis in HIRA (18.9%), and psoriasis in SIDIAP-H (26.4%).Compared to 70,660 hospitalised with influenza, those admitted with COVID-19 had more respiratory complications including pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome, and higher 30-day mortality (2.2% to 4.3% versus 6.3% to 24.6%).

Conclusions: Patients with autoimmune diseases had high rates of respiratory complications and 30-day mortality following a hospitalization with COVID-19. Compared to influenza, COVID-19 is a more severe disease, leading to more complications and higher mortality. Future studies should investigate predictors of poor outcomes in COVID-19 patients with autoimmune diseases.

What Is Already Known About This Topic: Patients with autoimmune conditions may be at increased risk of COVID-19 infection andcomplications.There is a paucity of evidence characterising the outcomes of hospitalised COVID-19 patients with prevalent autoimmune conditions.

What This Study Adds: Most people with autoimmune diseases who required hospitalisation for COVID-19 were women, aged 50 years or older, and had substantial previous comorbidities.Patients who were hospitalised with COVID-19 and had prevalent autoimmune diseases had higher prevalence of hypertension, chronic kidney disease, heart disease, and Type 2 diabetes as compared to those with prevalent autoimmune diseases who were diagnosed with COVID-19.A variable proportion of 6% to 25% across data sources died within one month of hospitalisation with COVID-19 and prevalent autoimmune diseases.For people with autoimmune diseases, COVID-19 hospitalisation was associated with worse outcomes and 30-day mortality compared to admission with influenza in the 2017-2018 season.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.24.20236802DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7709171PMC
November 2020

Baseline characteristics, management, and outcomes of 55,270 children and adolescents diagnosed with COVID-19 and 1,952,693 with influenza in France, Germany, Spain, South Korea and the United States: an international network cohort study.

medRxiv 2020 Oct 30. Epub 2020 Oct 30.

To characterize the demographics, comorbidities, symptoms, in-hospital treatments, and health outcomes among children/adolescents diagnosed or hospitalized with COVID-19. Secondly, to describe health outcomes amongst children/adolescents diagnosed with previous seasonal influenza. International network cohort. Real-world data from European primary care records (France/Germany/Spain), South Korean claims and US claims and hospital databases. Diagnosed and/or hospitalized children/adolescents with COVID-19 at age <18 between January and June 2020; diagnosed with influenza in 2017-2018. Baseline demographics and comorbidities, symptoms, 30-day in-hospital treatments and outcomes including hospitalization, pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), multi-system inflammatory syndrome (MIS-C), and death. A total of 55,270 children/adolescents diagnosed and 3,693 hospitalized with COVID-19 and 1,952,693 diagnosed with influenza were studied. Comorbidities including neurodevelopmental disorders, heart disease, and cancer were all more common among those hospitalized vs diagnosed with COVID-19. The most common COVID-19 symptom was fever. Dyspnea, bronchiolitis, anosmia and gastrointestinal symptoms were more common in COVID-19 than influenza. In-hospital treatments for COVID-19 included repurposed medications (<10%), and adjunctive therapies: systemic corticosteroids (6.8% to 37.6%), famotidine (9.0% to 28.1%), and antithrombotics such as aspirin (2.0% to 21.4%), heparin (2.2% to 18.1%), and enoxaparin (2.8% to 14.8%). Hospitalization was observed in 0.3% to 1.3% of the COVID-19 diagnosed cohort, with undetectable (N<5 per database) 30-day fatality. Thirty-day outcomes including pneumonia, ARDS, and MIS-C were more frequent in COVID-19 than influenza. Despite negligible fatality, complications including pneumonia, ARDS and MIS-C were more frequent in children/adolescents with COVID-19 than with influenza. Dyspnea, anosmia and gastrointestinal symptoms could help differential diagnosis. A wide range of medications were used for the inpatient management of pediatric COVID-19.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.29.20222083DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7605587PMC
October 2020

Baseline phenotype and 30-day outcomes of people tested for COVID-19: an international network cohort including >3.32 million people tested with real-time PCR and >219,000 tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 in South Korea, Spain and the United States.

medRxiv 2020 Oct 27. Epub 2020 Oct 27.

Early identification of symptoms and comorbidities most predictive of COVID-19 is critical to identify infection, guide policies to effectively contain the pandemic, and improve health systems' response. Here, we characterised socio-demographics and comorbidity in 3,316,107persons tested and 219,072 persons tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 since January 2020, and their key health outcomes in the month following the first positive test. Routine care data from primary care electronic health records (EHR) from Spain, hospital EHR from the United States (US), and claims data from South Korea and the US were used. The majority of study participants were women aged 18-65 years old. Positive/tested ratio varied greatly geographically (2.2:100 to 31.2:100) and over time (from 50:100 in February-April to 6.8:100 in May-June). Fever, cough and dyspnoea were the most common symptoms at presentation. Between 4%-38% required admission and 1-10.5% died within a month from their first positive test. Observed disparity in testing practices led to variable baseline characteristics and outcomes, both nationally (US) and internationally. Our findings highlight the importance of large scale characterization of COVID-19 international cohorts to inform planning and resource allocation including testing as countries face a second wave.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.25.20218875DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7605581PMC
October 2020

Filling the gaps in the characterization of the clinical management of COVID-19: 30-day hospital admission and fatality rates in a cohort of 118 150 cases diagnosed in outpatient settings in Spain.

Int J Epidemiol 2021 01;49(6):1930-1939

Fundació Institut Universitari per a la Recerca a l'Atenció Primària de Salut Jordi Gol i Gurina (IDIAPJGol), Barcelona, Spain.

Background: Currently, there is a missing link in the natural history of COVID-19, from first (usually milder) symptoms to hospitalization and/or death. To fill in this gap, we characterized COVID-19 patients at the time at which they were diagnosed in outpatient settings and estimated 30-day hospital admission and fatality rates.

Methods: This was a population-based cohort study.

Data were obtained from Information System for Research in Primary Care (SIDIAP)-a primary-care records database covering >6 million people (>80% of the population of Catalonia), linked to COVID-19 reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests and hospital emergency, inpatient and mortality registers. We included all patients in the database who were ≥15 years old and diagnosed with COVID-19 in outpatient settings between 15 March and 24 April 2020 (10 April for outcome studies). Baseline characteristics included socio-demographics, co-morbidity and previous drug use at the time of diagnosis, and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing and results.

Study outcomes included 30-day hospitalization for COVID-19 and all-cause fatality.

Results: We identified 118 150 and 95 467 COVID-19 patients for characterization and outcome studies, respectively. Most were women (58.7%) and young-to-middle-aged (e.g. 21.1% were 45-54 years old). Of the 44 575 who were tested with PCR, 32 723 (73.4%) tested positive. In the month after diagnosis, 14.8% (14.6-15.0) were hospitalized, with a greater proportion of men and older people, peaking at age 75-84 years. Thirty-day fatality was 3.5% (95% confidence interval: 3.4% to 3.6%), higher in men, increasing with age and highest in those residing in nursing homes [24.5% (23.4% to 25.6%)].

Conclusion: COVID-19 infections were widespread in the community, including all age-sex strata. However, severe forms of the disease clustered in older men and nursing-home residents. Although initially managed in outpatient settings, 15% of cases required hospitalization and 4% died within a month of first symptoms. These data are instrumental for designing deconfinement strategies and will inform healthcare planning and hospital-bed allocation in current and future COVID-19 outbreaks.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyaa190DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7665572PMC
January 2021

European Consensus Statement on the diagnosis and management of osteoporosis in chronic kidney disease stages G4-G5D.

Nephrol Dial Transplant 2021 01;36(1):42-59

Bone and Mineral Research Unit (ISPA) (REDinREN), Hospital Universitario Central Asturias, Oviedo University, Spain.

Controlling the excessive fracture burden in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) Stages G4-G5D remains an impressive challenge. The reasons are 2-fold. First, the pathophysiology of bone fragility in patients with CKD G4-G5D is complex and multifaceted, comprising a mixture of age-related (primary male/postmenopausal), drug-induced and CKD-related bone abnormalities. Second, our current armamentarium of osteoporosis medications has not been developed for, or adequately studied in patients with CKD G4-G5D, partly related to difficulties in diagnosing osteoporosis in this specific setting and fear of complications. Doubts about the optimal diagnostic and therapeutic approach fuel inertia in daily clinical practice. The scope of the present consensus paper is to review and update the assessment and diagnosis of osteoporosis in patients with CKD G4-G5D and to discuss the therapeutic interventions available and the manner in which these can be used to develop management strategies for the prevention of fragility fracture. As such, it aims to stimulate a cohesive approach to the management of osteoporosis in patients with CKD G4-G5D to replace current variations in care and treatment nihilism.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ndt/gfaa192DOI Listing
January 2021

The Association Between Smoking and the Development of Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Population-Based Case-Control Study.

Reumatol Clin 2020 Oct 12. Epub 2020 Oct 12.

Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Botnar Research Centre, NDORMS, University of Oxford, UK; GREMPAL Research Group, Idiap Jordi Gol, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona and CIBERFES, Barcelona, Spain.

Introduction: Smoking is one of the few modifiable risk factors associated with the development of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Most published data are over 10 years old, and none included Mediterranean populations. We therefore took advantage of primary care routinely collected data to study the association between smoking and the development of RA in the general population of Catalonia, Spain.

Methods: We conducted a case-control study including all patients with a new diagnosis of RA registered in the SIDIAP database between 01/01/2008 and 31/12/2018; and matched them to up to 1:5 controls by age, gender and general practitioner. Smoking was classified by primary care staff into never, ex- or current smoking. Odds Ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the association between current and ex-smoking (compared to never smoking) and RA were estimated using conditional logistic regression adjusted for potential confounders.

Results: A total of 13,920 RA cases and 69,535 controls were included. Compared with never smokers, current and ex-smokers were at increased risk of RA, with adjusted OR of 1.28 [95% CI 1.20-1.37] and OR 1.19 [1.12-1.26] respectively.

Conclusion: Our findings confirm an association between smoking and the risk of developing RA. The effect seems to prevail in the long-term and even in ex-smokers for 2 or more years after smoking cessation. More research is needed on the effects of smoking discontinuation on RA prevention and related outcomes.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.reuma.2020.08.006DOI Listing
October 2020

Timing, Complications, and Safety of Tracheotomy in Critically Ill Patients With COVID-19.

JAMA Otolaryngol Head Neck Surg 2020 Oct 8. Epub 2020 Oct 8.

Otorhinolaryngology Head Neck Surgery Department, Institut Clínic d'Especialitats Mèdiques i Quirúrgiques, Hospital Clínic, Barcelona, Spain.

Importance: The current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to unprecedented needs for invasive ventilation, with 10% to 15% of intubated patients subsequently requiring tracheotomy.

Objective: To assess the complications, safety, and timing of tracheotomy performed for critically ill patients with COVID-19.

Design, Setting, And Participants: This prospective cohort study assessed consecutive patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) who had COVID-19 that required tracheotomy. Patients were recruited from March 16 to April 10, 2020, at a tertiary referral center.

Exposures: A surgical tracheotomy was performed for all patients following recommended criteria for use of personal protective equipment (PPE).

Main Outcomes And Measures: The number of subthyroid operations, the tracheal entrance protocol, and use of PPE. Infections among the surgeons were monitored weekly by reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction of nasopharyngeal swab samples. Short-term complications, weaning, and the association of timing of tracheotomy (early [≤10 days] vs late [>10 days]) with total required days of invasive ventilation were assessed.

Results: A total of 50 patients (mean [SD] age, 63.8 [9.2] years; 33 [66%] male) participated in the study. All tracheotomies were performed at the bedside. The median time from intubation to tracheotomy was 9 days (interquartile range, 2-24 days). A subthyroid approach was completed for 46 patients (92%), and the tracheal protocol was adequately achieved for 40 patients (80%). Adequate PPE was used, with no infection among surgeons identified 4 weeks after the last tracheotomy. Postoperative complications were rare, with minor bleeding (in 6 patients [12%]) being the most common complication. The successful weaning rate was higher in the early tracheotomy group than in the late tracheotomy group (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.55; 95% CI, 0.96-6.75), but the difference was not statistically significant. There was less time of invasive mechanical ventilatory support with early tracheotomy compared with late tracheotomy (mean [SD], 18 [5.4] vs 22.3 [5.7] days). The reduction of invasive ventilatory support was achieved at the expense of the pretracheotomy period.

Conclusions And Relevance: In this cohort study, with the use of a standardized protocol aimed at minimizing COVID-19 risks, bedside open tracheotomy was a safe procedure for patients and surgeons, with minimal complications. Timing of tracheotomy may be important in reducing time of invasive mechanical ventilation, with potential implications to intensive care unit availability during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jamaoto.2020.3641DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7545345PMC
October 2020

Deep phenotyping of 34,128 adult patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in an international network study.

Nat Commun 2020 10 6;11(1):5009. Epub 2020 Oct 6.

Clinical Pharmacology Unit, Zealand University Hospital, Køge, Denmark.

Comorbid conditions appear to be common among individuals hospitalised with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) but estimates of prevalence vary and little is known about the prior medication use of patients. Here, we describe the characteristics of adults hospitalised with COVID-19 and compare them with influenza patients. We include 34,128 (US: 8362, South Korea: 7341, Spain: 18,425) COVID-19 patients, summarising between 4811 and 11,643 unique aggregate characteristics. COVID-19 patients have been majority male in the US and Spain, but predominantly female in South Korea. Age profiles vary across data sources. Compared to 84,585 individuals hospitalised with influenza in 2014-19, COVID-19 patients have more typically been male, younger, and with fewer comorbidities and lower medication use. While protecting groups vulnerable to influenza is likely a useful starting point in the response to COVID-19, strategies will likely need to be broadened to reflect the particular characteristics of individuals being hospitalised with COVID-19.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18849-zDOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7538555PMC
October 2020