Publications by authors named "Clark Gray"

37 Publications

Climate-Induced Migration and Unemployment in Middle-Income Africa.

Glob Environ Change 2020 Nov 10;65. Epub 2020 Oct 10.

UNC Department of Geography, CB #3220, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3220, USA.

One of the major unresolved questions in the study of vulnerability to climate change is how human migration will respond in low and middle-income countries. The present study directly addresses this lacuna by using census data on migration from 4 million individuals from three middle-income African countries over a 22-year period. We link these individuals to climate exposures in their origins and estimate climatic effects on migration using a fixed-effects regression model. We show that climate anomalies affect mobility in all three countries. Specifically, mobility declines by 19% with a 1-standard deviation increase in temperature in Botswana. Equivalent changes in precipitation cause declines in migration in Botswana (11%) and Kenya (10%), and increases in migration in Zambia (24%). The mechanisms underlying these effects appear to differ by country. Negative associations between precipitation anomalies, unemployment, and inactivity suggest migration declines may be due to an increased local demand for workers to offset production risk, while migration increases may be indicative of new opportunities in destinations. These country-specific findings highlight the contextually-specific nature of climate-migration relationships, and do not support claims that climate change is widely contributing to urbanization across Africa.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102183DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7737497PMC
November 2020

Climate exposures and child undernutrition: Evidence from Indonesia.

Soc Sci Med 2020 11 19;265:113298. Epub 2020 Aug 19.

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA.

Global climate change has the potential to disrupt agricultural systems, undermine household socioeconomic status, and shape the prevalence and distribution of diseases. Each of these changes may influence children's nutritional status, which is sensitive to food availability, access, and utilization, and which may have lasting consequences for later-life health and socioeconomic outcomes. This paper contributes to the emerging literature on climate and child health by studying the effects of temperature and precipitation exposures on children's height and weight in Indonesia. Drawing on five rounds of the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) implemented between 1993 and 2015, we estimate fixed-effects regression models of height-for-age (HFA) and weight-for-height (WFH) among samples of children ages 24-59 months and 0-23 months, respectively. We test for heterogeneity in these effects across sub-populations expected to vary in their vulnerability. Results show that delays in monsoon onset are consistently associated with worse child health outcomes. Delays in monsoon onset during the prenatal period are associated with reduced child height among children age 2-4 years. The weight of young (<2 years) children is adversely affected by delays in the most recent monsoon season, and this relationship is particularly strong among residents of Java. Overall, our results underline the need for interventions that protect children's nutrition and underlying health against the effects of climate change.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113298DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7738425PMC
November 2020

Stunted from the start: Early life weather conditions and child undernutrition in Ethiopia.

Soc Sci Med 2020 09 23;261:113234. Epub 2020 Jul 23.

Department of Geography, Environment, and Society, University of Minnesota, Twin Cities, USA.

This paper examines the relationship between weather conditions and child nutrition in Ethiopia. We link data from four rounds of the Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey to high-resolution climate data to measure exposure to rainfall and temperature in utero and during early life. We then estimate a set of multivariate regression models to understand how weather conditions impact child stunting, an indicator of sustained early life undernutrition. We find that greater rainfall during the rainy seasons in early life is associated with greater height for age. In addition, higher temperatures in utero, particularly during the first and third trimesters, and more rainfall during the third trimester, are positively associated with severe stunting, though stunting decreases with temperature in early life. We find potential evidence for a number of pathways underlying the weather-child nutrition relationship including agricultural livelihoods, heat stress, infectious disease transmission, and women's time use during pregnancy. These findings illuminate the complex pathways through which climate change may influence child health and should motivate additional research focused on identifying the causal mechanisms underlying these links.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113234DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7716344PMC
September 2020

Stability and Change within Indigenous Land Use in the Ecuadorian Amazon.

Glob Environ Change 2020 Jul 16;63. Epub 2020 Jul 16.

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

In the Amazon basin and other tropical forest regions, many forested landscapes are inhabited by indigenous peoples who are increasingly exposed to infrastructure expansion, large-scale natural resource extraction, and development programs. How indigenous land use evolves in this context will be a critical determinant of the future of these forests. To date, few studies have had access to longitudinal, large-sample and field-based data that enables the measurement of indigenous land use change and its correlates in these contexts. To address this lacuna, we make use of a unique multi-ethnic household survey conducted in 32 indigenous communities of the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon in 2001 and again with the same households in 2012. We analyze these data to measure land use and land use change as well as their determinants. This reveals that the overall household agropastoral footprint has remained close to constant over time, but with important changes within particular land uses and ethnicities. Notably, cacao has largely replaced coffee (tracking commodity price changes), and Kichwa and Shuar households have intensified production on increasingly subdivided plots, with the Shuar specializing in cattle. In contrast, Waorani and Cofán households have maintained small footprints, while Secoya households largely abandoned cattle ranching. Taken together, the results emphasize ethnic heterogeneity in indigenous land use change, a pattern which is only visible through the use of a longitudinal, large-sample, field-based design.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102116DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7402596PMC
July 2020

The changing climate-migration relationship in China, 1989-2011.

Clim Change 2020 May 21;160(5):103-122. Epub 2020 Jan 21.

Arizona State University; Tempe, AZ.

A persistent concern about the social consequences of climate change is that large, vulnerable populations will be involuntarily displaced. Existing evidence suggests that changes in precipitation and temperature can increase migration in particular contexts, but the potential for this relationship to evolve over time alongside processes of adaptation and development has not been widely explored. To address this issue, we link longitudinal data from 20 thousand Chinese adults from 1989-2011 to external data on climate anomalies, and use this linked dataset to explore how climatic effects on internal migration have changed over time while controlling for potential spatial and temporal confounders. We find that temperature anomalies initially displaced permanent migrants at the beginning of our study period, but that this effect had reversed by the end of the study period. A parallel analysis of income shares suggests that the explanation might lie in climate vulnerability shifting from agricultural to non-agricultural livelihood activities. Taken together with evidence from previous case studies, our results open the door to a potential future in which development and in-situ adaptation allow climate-induced migration to decline over time, even as climate change unfolds.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02657-xDOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7266103PMC
May 2020

Spatial and Temporal Dimensions of Weather Shocks and Migration in Nepal.

Popul Environ 2020 Mar 13;41(3):286-305. Epub 2019 Dec 13.

Department of Geography, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Research shows that environmental shocks can influence migration. However, studies vary widely in the shocks and type of migration measured, the context, and the strength and direction of environmental effects. In addition, existing theories provide opposing predictions for this relationship. There is a clear need for further theoretical development in the climate-migration literature. This study, in rural Nepal, examines four types of weather shocks, over various time frames, on four types of migration. Results suggest that the most substantial influence of weather shocks is not in a wholesale increase or decrease in migration. Instead, weather shocks are related to changes in the of migration used, resulting in less long-term and more short-term migrations in the population. We use the Ready-Willing-and-Able perspective to make sense of these patterns.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11111-019-00334-5DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7219478PMC
March 2020

Temporary Migration and Climate Variation in Eastern Africa.

World Dev 2020 Feb 25;126. Epub 2019 Oct 25.

Department of Geography, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Africa is likely to experience warming and increased climate variability by the late 21st century. Climate extremes have been linked to adverse economic outcomes. Hence, adaptation is a key component of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change agreements and development assistance. Effective climate adaptation policy requires an understanding of how temperature and rainfall variability affect migration patterns. Yet, how individuals in developing countries manage climate variation is poorly understood, especially in Africa. Combining high-resolution climate data with panel micro-data on migration, labor participation, and demographics, we employ regression analysis to assess temporary migration responses to local temperature and precipitation anomalies in four East African countries. We find that climate impacts are most pronounced in urban areas, with a standard deviation temperature increase and rainfall decrease leading to respective 10 and 12 percent declines in out-migration relative to mean values. Evidence from other labor market outcomes suggests that urban out-migration is not associated with reduced local employment opportunities. Instead, declines in urban out-migration appear to coincide with negative local climate employment impacts. These results challenge the narrative that temporary out-migration serves as a safety valve during climate extremes and that climate change will most strongly affect out-migration rates from rural areas in developing countries.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104704DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7173330PMC
February 2020

Do Social Protection Programs Foster Short-term and Long-term Migration Adaptation Strategies?

Environ Dev Econ 2020 May 1;25(2):135-158. Epub 2019 Aug 1.

American Institutes of Research.

We examine how migration is influenced by temperature and precipitation variability, and the extent to which the receipt of a cash transfer affects the use of migration as an adaptation strategy. Climate data is merged with georeferenced panel data (2010-2014) on individual migration collected from the Zambian Child Grant Program (CGP) sites. We use the person-year dataset to identify the direct and heterogeneous causal effects of the CGP on mobility. Having access to cash transfers doubles the rate of male, short-distance moves during cool periods irrespective of wealth. Receipt of cash transfers (among wealthier households) during extreme heat causes an additional retention of males. Cash transfers positively spur long-distance migration under normal climate conditions in the long term. They also facilitate short-distance responses to climate, but not long-distance responses that might be demanded by future climate change.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1355770X19000214DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7062362PMC
May 2020

Characterizing the Indigenous Forest Peoples of Latin America: Results from Census Data.

World Dev 2020 Jan 11;125. Epub 2019 Oct 11.

The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Indigenous populations in Latin America are central to regional and global efforts toward achieving socially and environmentally sustainable development. However, existing demographic research on indigenous forest peoples (IFPs) has many limitations, including a lack of comparable cross-national evidence. We address this gap by linking representative census microdata to satellite-derived tree cover estimates for nine countries in the region. Our analyses describe the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of IFPs, and draw comparisons with reference groups. Our first goal is to examine within- and between-population variation in the age structure, human capital attainment, and economic status of IFPs. We then analyze patterns of fertility among indigenous forest-dwelling women and comparison groups. Finally, we examine the association between migration patterns and tree cover among indigenous and non-indigenous populations. Findings demonstrate that Latin America's IFPs are materially deprived and characterized by high fertility levels overall. Importantly for sustainable development efforts, we show that non-indigenous forest-dwellers outnumber IFPs by more than eight to one and that IFPs have lower fertility than their non-indigenous counterparts when other characteristics are accounted for. Additionally, we find that most in-migrants to heavily-forested areas are non-indigenous, and that in-migrants tend to settle in areas that are forested but have few indigenous inhabitants. These results provide new cross-national evidence on the state of IFPs in Latin America, and highlight the need to empower these groups in the face of growing social and environmental crises in the region.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104685DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7051013PMC
January 2020

Smallholder responses to climate anomalies in rural Uganda.

World Dev 2019 Mar 29;115:132-144. Epub 2018 Nov 29.

UNC Department of Public Policy, Abernethy Hall, CB# 3435, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3435,

Recent research suggests that sub-Saharan Africa will be among the regions most affected by the negative social and biophysical ramifications of climate change. Smallholders are anticipated to respond to rising temperatures and precipitation anomalies through on-farm management strategies and diversification into off-farm activities. Few studies have empirically examined the relationship between climate anomalies and rural livelihoods. Our research explores the impact of climate anomalies on farmers' on and off-farm livelihood strategies, considering both annual and decadal climate exposures, the relationship between on and off-farm livelihoods, and the implications of these livelihood strategies for agricultural productivity. To examine these issues, we link gridded climate data to survey data collected in 120 communities from 850 Ugandan households and 2,000 agricultural plots in 2003 and 2013. We find that smallholder livelihoods are responsive to climate exposure over both short and long time scales. Droughts decrease agricultural productivity in the short term and reduce individual livelihood diversification in the long term. Smallholders cope with higher temperatures in the short term, but in the long run, farmers struggle to adapt to above-average temperatures, which lower agricultural productivity and reduce opportunities for diversification. On and off-farm livelihood strategies also appear to operate in parallel, rather than by substituting for one another. These observations suggest that in order to sustain rural livelihoods, new strategies will be necessary if smallholders are to successfully adapt to climate change.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.11.009DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6748396PMC
March 2019

Climate Shocks Constrain Human Fertility in Indonesia.

World Dev 2019 May 18;117:357-369. Epub 2019 Feb 18.

Department of Geography, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Carolina Hall, CB 3220, Chapel Hill, NC USA 27599.

Climate change is likely to induce a large range of household- and individual-level responses, including changes in human fertility behaviors and outcomes. These responses may have important implications for human and economic development and women's empowerment. Drawing on the literature linking climate conditions to rice cultivation in Indonesia, we use longitudinal household survey and high-resolution climate data to explore changes in childbearing intentions, family planning use, and births following community-level climate shocks from 1993 to 2015. We find that fertility intentions increase and family planning use declines in response to delays in monsoon onset occurring within the previous year, particularly for wealthier populations. However, women on farms are significantly more likely to use family planning and less likely to give birth following abnormally high temperatures during the previous five years. We also measure parallel shifts in household well-being as measured by rice, food, and non-food consumption expenditures. Our findings advance the environmental fertility literature by showing that longer duration environmental shocks can have impacts on fertility behaviors and outcomes. Collectively, our results illustrate human fertility responses to climate change in a country vulnerable to its effects, and demonstrate that in some cases, climate shocks can constrain human fertility.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.02.003DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6581515PMC
May 2019

Climate change and educational attainment in the global tropics.

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2019 04 15;116(18):8840-8845. Epub 2019 Apr 15.

Department of Geography, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599.

Climate change may negatively impact education among children via exposure to extreme temperature and precipitation conditions. We link census data from 29 countries across the global tropics to high-resolution gridded climate data to understand how climatic conditions experienced in utero and during early childhood affect educational attainment at ages 12 to 16. We show that exposure to higher-than-average temperatures during the prenatal and early-life period is associated with fewer years of schooling in Southeast Asia. In this region, a child who experiences temperatures 2 SDs above average is predicted to attain 1.5 fewer years of schooling than one who experiences average temperatures. In addition, early-life rainfall is positively correlated with attainment in West and Central Africa as well as Southeast Asia, and negatively correlated with attainment in Central America and the Caribbean. While we expected that children from the most educated households would be buffered from these effects, we discover that they tend to experience the greatest educational penalties when exposed to hotter early-life conditions and, in some regions, to drier conditions. For example, among the most educated households in West and Central Africa, predicted schooling is 1.8 years lower for children who experience early-life rainfall 2 SDs below average versus 2 SDs above average, while the difference is just 0.8 years for children from the least educated households. These results suggest that development and educational gains in the tropics could be undermined by climate change, even for better-off households.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1817480116DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6500158PMC
April 2019

Heat and Adult Health in China.

Popul Environ 2018 Sep 14;40(1):1-26. Epub 2018 Apr 14.

Department of Geography, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.

Given projected increases in the frequency of precipitation and temperature extremes in China, we examine the extent adults may be vulnerable to climate anomalies. We link nutrition, health, and economic data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (1989-2011) to gridded climate data to identify which socioeconomic outcomes are particularly susceptible, including adult underweight incidence, body mass index, dietary intake, physical activity, illness, income, and food prices. We find warm temperatures augment the probability of being underweight among adults, with a particularly large impact for the elderly (ages > 60). Extremely dry and warm conditions produce a 3.3-percentage point increase in underweight status for this group. Consequences on nutrition coincide with changes in illness rather than dietary, income or purchasing power shifts. Social protection targeting areas prone to excessive heat may consider supplementing bundles of goods with a suite of health care provisions catering to the elderly.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11111-018-0294-6DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6195320PMC
September 2018

Disruption, not displacement: Environmental variability and temporary migration in Bangladesh.

Glob Environ Change 2017 Sep 20;46:157-165. Epub 2017 Sep 20.

UNC Department of Geography, 205 Carolina Hall, CB #3220, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3220.

Mass migration is one of the most concerning potential outcomes of global climate change. Recent research into environmentally induced migration suggests that relationship is much more complicated than originally posited by the 'environmental refugee' hypothesis. Climate change is likely to increase migration in some cases and reduce it in others, and these movements will more often be temporary and short term than permanent and long term. However, few large-sample studies have examined the evolution of temporary migration under changing environmental conditions. To address this gap, we measure the extent to which temperature, precipitation, and flooding can predict temporary migration in Matlab, Bangladesh. Our analysis incorporates high-frequency demographic surveillance data, a discrete time event history approach, and a range of sociodemographic and contextual controls. This approach reveals that migration declines immediately after flooding but quickly returns to normal. In contrast, optimal precipitation and high temperatures have sustained positive effects on temporary migration that persist over one to two year periods. Building on previous studies of long-term migration, these results challenge the common assumption that flooding, precipitation extremes and high temperatures will consistently increase temporary migration. Instead, our results are consistent with a livelihoods interpretation of environmental migration in which households draw on a range of strategies to cope with environmental variability.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.08.008DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5784445PMC
September 2017

Heterogeneous Climate Effects on Human Migration in Indonesia.

Popul Environ 2017 Dec 20;39(2):147-172. Epub 2016 Oct 20.

Department of Geography, University of North Carolina, Carolina Hall, Box 3220, Chapel Hill, NC 27599.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11111-016-0265-8DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6656383PMC
December 2017

Indigenous migration dynamics in the Ecuadorian Amazon: a longitudinal and hierarchical analysis.

J Dev Stud 2017;53(11):1849-1864. Epub 2016 Dec 5.

Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, 123 West Franklin Street, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-2524, USA.

Amazonian indigenous populations are approaching a critical stage in their history in which increasing education and market integration, rapid population growth and degradation of natural resources threaten the survival of their traditions and livelihoods. A topic that has hardly been touched upon in this context is migration and population mobility. We address this by analysing a unique longitudinal dataset from the Ecuadorian Amazon on the spatial mobility of five indigenous groups and mestizo co-residents. Analyses reveal traditional and new forms of population mobility and migrant selectivity, including gendered forms of marriage migration and rural-urban moves driven by education. These results illustrate a dynamic present and an uncertain future for indigenous populations in which rural, natural-resource-based lifeways may well be sustained but with increasing links to urban areas.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2016.1262028DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5678965PMC
December 2016

Climate Variability and Inter-Provincial Migration in South America, 1970-2011.

Glob Environ Change 2016 Nov 16;41:228-240. Epub 2016 Nov 16.

International Food Policy Research Institute.

We examine the effect of climate variability on human migration in South America. Our analyses draw on over 21 million observations of adults aged 15-40 from 25 censuses conducted in eight South American countries. Addressing limitations associated with methodological diversity among prior studies, we apply a common analytic approach and uniform definitions of migration and climate across all countries. We estimate the effects of climate variability on migration overall and also investigate heterogeneity across sex, age, and socioeconomic groups, across countries, and across historical climate conditions. We also disaggregate migration by the rural/urban status of destination. We find that exposure to monthly temperature shocks has the most consistent effects on migration relative to monthly rainfall shocks and gradual changes in climate over multi-year periods. We also find evidence of heterogeneity across demographic groups and countries. Analyses that disaggregate migration by the rural/urban status of destination suggest that much of the climate-related inter-province migration is directed toward urban areas. Overall, our results underscore the complexity of environment-migration linkages and challenge simplistic narratives that envision a linear and monolithic migratory response to changing climates.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.005DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5389124PMC
November 2016

Climate and marriage in the Netherlands, 1871-1937.

Popul Environ 2017 Mar 20;38(3):242-260. Epub 2017 Jan 20.

Department of Geography, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill, Campus Box 3220, Chapel Hill, NC 27599.

Environmental factors such as climate variability can place significant constraints on demographic behavior in a range of settings. However, few studies investigate the relationships between demography and climate in historical contexts. Using longitudinal individual-level demographic data from the Historical Sample of the Netherlands (HSN) and climate and economic data from 1871-1937, we examine the effects of climate variability on marriage. This analysis reveals that marriage increases with negative environmental conditions such as cold temperatures, riverine flooding, and high rye prices. These findings are not consistent with a Malthusian narrative of marriage behavior, or with the expectation that environmental constraints were stronger in the historical past.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11111-016-0266-7DOI Listing
March 2017

Climate variability and educational attainment: Evidence from rural Ethiopia.

Glob Environ Change 2016 Nov 7;41:111-123. Epub 2016 Oct 7.

Department of Geography, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Chapel Hill, NC.

This paper examines the effects of climate variability on schooling outcomes in rural Ethiopia. Investments in education serve as an important pathway out of poverty, yet reduced agricultural productivity due to droughts or temperature shocks may affect educational attainment if children receive poorer nutrition during early childhood, are required to participate in household income generation during schooling ages, or if households can no longer pay for school-related expenses. We link longitudinal socioeconomic, demographic, and schooling data from the Ethiopian Rural Household Survey to high-resolution gridded climate data to measure exposure to temperature and precipitation relative to historical norms. We then estimate a set of multivariate regression models to understand how climate variability impacts grade attainment and school enrollment. Results indicate that early life climatic conditions - namely milder temperatures during all seasons and greater rainfall during the summer agricultural season - are associated with an increased likelihood of a child having completed any education. In addition, greater summer rainfall during both early life and school ages is associated with having completed any schooling as well as with attending school at the time of the survey. These findings suggest that future climate change may reduce children's school participation in rural Sub-Saharan Africa, slowing progress toward human development goals and poverty alleviation.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.09.006DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6594713PMC
November 2016

Country-Specific Effects of Climate Variability on Human Migration.

Clim Change 2016 Apr 9;135(3):555-568. Epub 2016 Jan 9.

Department of Geography, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599.

Involuntary human migration is among the social outcomes of greatest concern in the current era of global climate change. Responding to this concern, a growing number of studies have investigated the consequences of short to medium-term climate variability for human migration using demographic and econometric approaches. These studies have provided important insights, but at the same time have been significantly limited by lack of expertise in the use of climate data, access to cross-national data on migration, and attention to model specification. To address these limitations, we link data on internal and international migration over a 6-year period from 9,812 origin households in Kenya, Uganda, Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Senegal to high-resolution gridded climate data from both station and satellite sources. Analyses of these data using several plausible specifications reveal that climate variability has country-specific effects on migration: Migration tends to increase with temperature anomalies in Uganda, tends to decrease with temperature anomalies in Kenya and Burkina Faso, and shows no consistent relationship with temperature in Nigeria and Senegal. Consistent with previous studies, precipitation shows weak and inconsistent relationships with migration across countries. These results challenge generalizing narratives that foresee a consistent migratory response to climate change across the globe.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1592-yDOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4832924PMC
April 2016

Oil Extraction and Indigenous Livelihoods in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon.

World Dev 2016 Feb;78:125-135

Department of Biostatistics and Carolina Population Center, Campus Box 8120, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27516, USA.

Globally, the extraction of minerals and fossil fuels is increasingly penetrating into isolated regions inhabited by indigenous peoples, potentially undermining their livelihoods and well-being. To provide new insight to this issue, we draw on a unique longitudinal dataset collected in the Ecuadorian Amazon over an 11-year period from 484 indigenous households with varying degrees of exposure to oil extraction. Fixed and random effects regression models of the consequences of oil activities for livelihood outcomes reveal mixed and multidimensional effects. These results challenge common assumptions about these processes and are only partly consistent with hypotheses drawn from the Dutch disease literature.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.10.035DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4629257PMC
February 2016

Climate Variability and Human Migration in the Netherlands, 1865-1937.

Popul Environ 2015 Mar;36(3):255-278

Department of Geography, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Saunders Hall, CB# 3220, Chapel Hill, NC 27599.

Human migration is frequently cited as a potential social outcome of climate change and variability, and these effects are often assumed to be stronger in the past when economies were less developed and markets more localized. Yet, few studies have used historical data to test the relationship between climate and migration directly. In addition, the results of recent studies that link demographic and climate data are not consistent with conventional narratives of displacement responses. Using longitudinal individual-level demographic data from the Historical Sample of the Netherlands (HSN) and climate data that cover the same period, we examine the effects of climate variability on migration using event history models. Only internal moves in the later period and for certain social groups are associated with negative climate conditions, and the strength and direction of the observed effects change over time. International moves decrease with extreme rainfall, suggesting that the complex relationships between climate and migration that have been observed for contemporary populations extend into the nineteenth century.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11111-014-0218-zDOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4412608PMC
March 2015

Delayed fertility transition among indigenous women in the Ecuadorian Amazon.

Int Perspect Sex Reprod Health 2015 Mar;41(1):1-10

Postdoctoral scholar, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, USA,

Context: Communities indigenous to the Amazon are among the few remaining worldwide still practicing near-natural fertility, without the use of modern contraceptives. Given the large proportion of women desiring no more births, information on the challenges women there face in limiting fertility would be useful.

Methods: Samples of women of reproductive age from five indigenous ethnic groups in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon were surveyed in 2001 and 2012. Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses examined married women's desire for another child at both times and modern contraceptive use in 2012, as well as determinants of a change in women's desire to have more children and of the number of children born during the study period.

Results: In 2001, 48% of married women desired another child, 2% used a modern contraceptive and 50% had an unmet need for limiting; in 2012, the proportions were 40%, 19% and 47%, respectively. The total fertility rate was 7.9 births per woman in 2001 and 7.0 births per woman in 2012. Characteristics associated with wanting another child in 2001 and 2012 included parity (odds ratios, 0.6 and 0.4, respectively) and experience of a child death (2.0 each); characteristics associated with contraceptive use in 2012 included desire for another child, experience of a child death and presence of a community health worker (0.3-0.5). Number of children born was positively associated, and the square of the term negatively associated, with no longer wanting more children in 2012 among women who wanted more in 2001 (2.1 and 0.9, respectively).

Conclusions: Indigenous women in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon appear to be making the transition to lower fertility. Insufficient access to credible information about the safety and efficacy of modern contraceptives, however, may slow the transition.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1363/4100115DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4394206PMC
March 2015

Declining Use of Wild Resources by Indigenous Peoples of the Ecuadorian Amazon.

Biol Conserv 2015 Feb;182:270-277

Carolina Population Center, Campus Box 8120, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27516, USA,

Wild product harvesting by forest-dwelling peoples, including hunting, fishing, forest product collection and timber harvesting, is believed to be a major threat to the biodiversity of tropical forests worldwide. Despite this threat, few studies have attempted to quantify these activities across time or across large spatial scales. We use a unique longitudinal household survey (n = 480) to describe changes in these activities over time in 32 indigenous communities from five ethnicities in the northern Ecuadorian Amazon. To provide insight into the drivers of these changes, we also estimate multilevel statistical models of these activities as a function of household and community characteristics. These analyses reveal that participation in hunting, fishing, and forest product collection is high but declining across time and across ethnicities, with no evidence for a parallel decline in resource quality. However, participation in timber harvesting did not significantly decline and there is evidence of a decline in resource quality. Multilevel statistical models additionally reveal that household and community characteristics such as ethnicity, demographic characteristics, wealth, livelihood diversification, access to forest, participation in conservation programs and exposure to external markets are significant predictors of wild product harvesting. These characteristics have changed over time but cannot account for declining participation in resource harvesting. This finding suggests that participation is declining due to changes in the regional-scale social and economic context, including urbanization and the expansion of government infrastructure and services. The lesson for conservationists is that macro-scale social and economic conditions can drive reductions in wild product harvesting even in the absence of successful conservation interventions.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2014.12.022DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4302340PMC
February 2015

Measuring the Environmental Dimensions of Human Migration: The Demographer's Toolkit.

Glob Environ Change 2014 Sep;28:182-191

Department of Geography, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA.

In recent years, the empirical literature linking environmental factors and human migration has grown rapidly and gained increasing visibility among scholars and the policy community. Still, this body of research uses a wide range of methodological approaches for assessing environment-migration relationships. Without comparable data and measures across a range of contexts, it is impossible to make generalizations that would facilitate the development of future migration scenarios. Demographic researchers have a large methodological toolkit for measuring migration as well as modeling its drivers. This toolkit includes population censuses, household surveys, survival analysis and multi-level modeling. This paper's purpose is to introduce climate change researchers to demographic data and methods and to review exemplary studies of the environmental dimensions of human migration. Our intention is to foster interdisciplinary understanding and scholarship, and to promote high quality research on environment and migration that will lead toward broader knowledge of this association.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.07.001DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4144443PMC
September 2014

Livelihood Diversification and Shifting Social Networks of Exchange: A Social Network Transition?

World Dev 2014 Aug 27;60:14-30. Epub 2014 Mar 27.

University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, USA.

In the developing world, traditional social networks of exchange and reciprocity are critical components of household security, disaster relief, and social wellbeing especially in rural areas. This research asks the question: How are traditional social networks of exchange related to emerging household strategies to diversify livelihoods? Within this context, this study uses a mixed methods design to examine the character of inter-household exchanges of material goods (IHE) and the association between IHE and livelihood diversification, in ethnically Maasai communities in northern Tanzania. Findings show that IHE are both evolving and declining and are negatively associated with livelihood diversification.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.02.002DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6697137PMC
August 2014

Studying Displacement After a Disaster Using Large Scale Survey Methods: Sumatra After the 2004 Tsunami.

Ann Assoc Am Geogr 2014 Jan;104(3):594-612

Department of Economics, Duke University.

Understanding of human vulnerability to environmental change has advanced in recent years, but measuring vulnerability and interpreting mobility across many sites differentially affected by change remains a significant challenge. Drawing on longitudinal data collected on the same respondents who were living in coastal areas of Indonesia before the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and were re-interviewed after the tsunami, this paper illustrates how the combination of population-based survey methods, satellite imagery and multivariate statistical analyses has the potential to provide new insights into vulnerability, mobility and impacts of major disasters on population well-being. The data are used to map and analyze vulnerability to post-tsunami displacement across the provinces of Aceh and North Sumatra and to compare patterns of migration after the tsunami between damaged areas and areas not directly affected by the tsunami. The comparison reveals that migration after a disaster is less selective overall than migration in other contexts. Gender and age, for example, are strong predictors of moving from undamaged areas but are not related to displacement in areas experiencing damage. In our analyses traditional predictors of vulnerability do not always operate in expected directions. Low levels of socioeconomic status and education were not predictive of moving after the tsunami, although for those who did move, they were predictive of displacement to a camp rather than a private home. This survey-based approach, though not without difficulties, is broadly applicable to many topics in human-environment research, and potentially opens the door to rigorous testing of new hypotheses in this literature.
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http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4019446PMC
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00045608.2014.892351DOI Listing
January 2014

Consequences of Out-Migration for Land Use in Rural Ecuador.

Land use policy 2014 Jan;36

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA.

In rural Ecuador and elsewhere in Latin America, the departure of migrants and the receipt of migrant remittances have led to declining rural populations and increasing cash incomes. It is commonly assumed that these processes will lead to agricultural abandonment and the regrowth of native vegetation, thus undermining traditional livelihoods and providing a boon for biodiversity conservation. However, an increasing number of household-level studies have found mixed and complex effects of out-migration and remittances on agriculture. We advance this literature by using household survey data and satellite imagery from three study areas in rural Ecuador to investigate the effects of migration and remittances on agricultural land use. Multivariate methods are used to disaggregate the effects of migration and remittances, to account for other influences on land use and to correct for the potential endogeneity of migration and remittances. Contrary to common assumptions but consistent with previous studies, we find that migrant departure has a positive effect on agricultural activities that is offset by migrant remittances. These results suggest that rural out-migration alone is not likely to lead to a forest transition in the study areas.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2013.07.006DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3810977PMC
January 2014

Environmental influences on human migration in rural Ecuador.

Demography 2013 Aug;50(4):1217-41

Department of Geography, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3220, USA.

The question of whether environmental conditions influence human migration has recently gained considerable attention, driven by claims that global environmental change will displace large populations. Despite this high level of interest, few quantitative studies have investigated the potential effects of environmental factors on migration, particularly in the developing world and for gradual but pervasive forms of environmental change. To address this, a retrospective migration survey was conducted in rural Ecuador and linked to data on topography, climate, and weather shocks. These data were used to estimate multivariate event history models of alternative forms of mobility (local mobility, internal migration, and international migration), controlling for a large number of covariates. This approach is generalizable to other study areas and responds to calls for the development of more rigorous methods in this field. The results indicate that adverse environmental conditions do not consistently increase rural out-migration and, in some cases, reduce migration. Instead, households respond to environmental factors in diverse ways, resulting in complex migratory responses. Overall, the results support an alternative narrative of environmentally induced migration that recognizes the adaptability of rural households in responding to environmental change.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13524-012-0192-yDOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3661740PMC
August 2013

DROUGHT AND POPULATION MOBILITY IN RURAL ETHIOPIA.

World Dev 2012 Jan 21;40(1):134-145. Epub 2011 Jun 21.

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Department of Geography, 205 Saunders Hall, Campus Box 3220, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3220, , , Cell: (919) 960-5808, , Alternate

Significant attention has focused on the possibility that climate change will displace large populations in the developing world, but few multivariate studies have investigated climate-induced migration. We use event history methods and a unique longitudinal dataset from the rural Ethiopian highlands to investigate the effects of drought on population mobility over a ten-year period. The results indicate that men's labor migration increases with drought and that land-poor households are most vulnerable. However, marriage-related moves by women also decrease with drought. These findings suggest a hybrid narrative of environmentally-induced migration that recognizes multiple dimensions of adaptation to environmental change.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2011.05.023DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3328858PMC
January 2012