Publications by authors named "Carmen S Ng"

7 Publications

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Development and validation of the CHIME simulation model to assess lifetime health outcomes of prediabetes and type 2 diabetes in Chinese populations: A modeling study.

PLoS Med 2021 Jun 24;18(6):e1003692. Epub 2021 Jun 24.

School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.

Background: Existing predictive outcomes models for type 2 diabetes developed and validated in historical European populations may not be applicable for East Asian populations due to differences in the epidemiology and complications. Despite the continuum of risk across the spectrum of risk factor values, existing models are typically limited to diabetes alone and ignore the progression from prediabetes to diabetes. The objective of this study is to develop and externally validate a patient-level simulation model for prediabetes and type 2 diabetes in the East Asian population for predicting lifetime health outcomes.

Methods And Findings: We developed a health outcomes model from a population-based cohort of individuals with prediabetes or type 2 diabetes: Hong Kong Clinical Management System (CMS, 97,628 participants) from 2006 to 2017. The Chinese Hong Kong Integrated Modeling and Evaluation (CHIME) simulation model comprises of 13 risk equations to predict mortality, micro- and macrovascular complications, and development of diabetes. Risk equations were derived using parametric proportional hazard models. External validation of the CHIME model was assessed in the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS, 4,567 participants) from 2011 to 2018 for mortality, ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, renal failure, cataract, and development of diabetes; and against 80 observed endpoints from 9 published trials using 100,000 simulated individuals per trial. The CHIME model was compared to United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model 2 (UKPDS-OM2) and Risk Equations for Complications Of type 2 Diabetes (RECODe) by assessing model discrimination (C-statistics), calibration slope/intercept, root mean square percentage error (RMSPE), and R2. CHIME risk equations had C-statistics for discrimination from 0.636 to 0.813 internally and 0.702 to 0.770 externally for diabetes participants. Calibration slopes between deciles of expected and observed risk in CMS ranged from 0.680 to 1.333 for mortality, myocardial infarction, ischemic heart disease, retinopathy, neuropathy, ulcer of the skin, cataract, renal failure, and heart failure; 0.591 for peripheral vascular disease; 1.599 for cerebrovascular disease; and 2.247 for amputation; and in CHARLS outcomes from 0.709 to 1.035. CHIME had better discrimination and calibration than UKPDS-OM2 in CMS (C-statistics 0.548 to 0.772, slopes 0.130 to 3.846) and CHARLS (C-statistics 0.514 to 0.750, slopes -0.589 to 11.411); and small improvements in discrimination and better calibration than RECODe in CMS (C-statistics 0.615 to 0.793, slopes 0.138 to 1.514). Predictive error was smaller for CHIME in CMS (RSMPE 3.53% versus 10.82% for UKPDS-OM2 and 11.16% for RECODe) and CHARLS (RSMPE 4.49% versus 14.80% for UKPDS-OM2). Calibration performance of CHIME was generally better for trials with Asian participants (RMSPE 0.48% to 3.66%) than for non-Asian trials (RMPSE 0.81% to 8.50%). Main limitations include the limited number of outcomes recorded in the CHARLS cohort, and the generalizability of simulated cohorts derived from trial participants.

Conclusions: Our study shows that the CHIME model is a new validated tool for predicting progression of diabetes and its outcomes, particularly among Chinese and East Asian populations that has been lacking thus far. The CHIME model can be used by health service planners and policy makers to develop population-level strategies, for example, setting HbA1c and lipid targets, to optimize health outcomes.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003692DOI Listing
June 2021

Adverse events following quadrivalent meningococcal diphtheria toxoid conjugate vaccine (Menactra®) reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), 2005-2016.

Vaccine 2020 09 31;38(40):6291-6298. Epub 2020 Jul 31.

Division of Healthcare Quality Promotion, Immunization Safety Office, National Center for Emerging Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Road NE, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA.

Background: Post marketing safety evaluations of quadrivalent meningococcal diphtheria-toxoid conjugate vaccine (MenACWY-D) have focused on post-vaccination risk of Guillain Barré syndrome (GBS), adverse events (AEs) after maternal vaccination, and comparative studies with the newer quadrivalent meningococcal CRM conjugate vaccine (MenACWY-CRM). To provide an updated general safety assessment, we reviewed reports of AEs following MenACWY-D submitted to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS).

Methods: VAERS is a national spontaneous reporting vaccine safety surveillance system co-administered by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. We searched the VAERS database for U.S. reports of AEs after administration of MenACWY-D from January 2005 through June 2016. We conducted clinical reviews of serious reports after MenACWY-D administered alone, reports of MenACWY-D use during pregnancy, and reports of selected pre-specified outcomes. We screened for disproportionate reporting of AEs after MenACWY-D using empirical Bayesian data mining.

Results: VAERS received 13,075 U.S. reports after receipt of MenACWY-D; most (86%) described vaccination in adolescents, were classified as non-serious (94%), and described AEs consistent with pre-licensure studies. We did not find any evidence that reported deaths were related to vaccination. In serious reports, GBS and meningococcal infection were the most commonly reported medical conditions. Many reports of MenACWY-D use during pregnancy described inadvertent vaccination; most (61%) did not report any AE.

Conclusions: Findings from our comprehensive review of reports to VAERS following MenACWY-D are consistent with data from pre-licensure studies and provide further reassurance on the safety of MenACWY-D.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2020.07.039DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7495357PMC
September 2020

Erythema multiforme, Stevens Johnson syndrome, and toxic epidermal necrolysis reported after vaccination, 1999-2017.

Vaccine 2020 02 20;38(7):1746-1752. Epub 2019 Dec 20.

Immunization Safety Office, Division of Healthcare Quality Promotion, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, United States.

Background: Since the last review of vaccine safety surveillance data for erythema multiforme (EM), Stevens Johnson syndrome (SJS), SJS/TEN, and toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN) (EM/SJS/TEN), over 37 new vaccines have been introduced in the United States. We sought to describe reported EM/SJS/TEN after vaccines during 1999-2017.

Methods: We identified U.S. reports of EM/SJS/TEN received by the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) during 1999-2017. We stratified analysis by condition (EM, SJS, or TEN), and analyzed reports by serious or non-serious status, sex, age group, time from vaccination to symptom onset, exposure to known causes of EM/SJS/TEN, and vaccines administered. We used Empirical Bayesian data mining to detect vaccine-AE pairs reported more frequently than expected.

Results: Of 466,027 reports to VAERS during 1999-2017, we identified 984 reports of EM, 89 reports of SJS, 6 reports of SJS/TEN, and 7 reports of TEN. Few reports of EM (9%), and most reports of SJS (52%), SJS/TEN (100%), and TEN (100%) were serious. Overall, 55% of reports described males, 48% described children aged < 4 years; 58% of EM/SJS/TEN occurred ≤ 7 days after vaccination. Few reports (≤5%) described exposure to known causes of EM/SJS/TEN. Overall, childhood vaccines (e.g., combined measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine) were most commonly reported. We identified 6 deaths; 4 were exposed to medications associated with EM/SJS/TEN. EM after smallpox vaccine was reported disproportionately among people aged 19-49 years.

Conclusions: EM/SJS/TEN were rarely reported after vaccination; data mining identified a known association between EM and smallpox vaccine.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2019.12.028DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7008074PMC
February 2020

Reports of atypical shoulder pain and dysfunction following inactivated influenza vaccine, Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), 2010-2017.

Vaccine 2020 01 26;38(5):1137-1143. Epub 2019 Nov 26.

Immunization Safety Office, Division of Healthcare Quality Promotion, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), United States.

Background: Vaccines administered into or too close to underlying joint structures have the potential to cause shoulder injuries. Limited data exist on the epidemiology of such events.

Objective: To describe case reports of atypical shoulder pain and dysfunction following injection of inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV).

Methods: We searched the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) database from July 2010 to June 2017 for reports of atypical shoulder pain and dysfunction following IIV. When identifying reports, we made no assumptions about true incident injury or causality with respect to vaccination. Pain had to begin <48 h after vaccination and signs and symptoms had to continue for >7 days to differentiate from self-limited local reactions. We conducted descriptive analysis.

Results: We identified 1220 reports that met our case definition (2.0% of all IIV reports, range 1.5%-2.5% across influenza seasons). Median age was 52 years (range 16-94) and most patients (82.6%) were female. Shoulder pain (44.1%), injected limb mobility decreased (40.8%), joint range of motion decreased (21.2%), rotator cuff syndrome (9.2%), and bursitis (9.0%) were frequently reported. In 86.6% of reports, signs and symptoms had not resolved by the time of report submission. In reports that included descriptions suggesting contributing factors (n = 266), vaccination given "too high" on the arm was cited in 81.2%. Nearly half (n = 605, 49.6%) of reports described a healthcare provider evaluation. Treatments included non-narcotic analgesics, physical therapy, and corticosteroid injection. Vaccinations were most commonly administered in a pharmacy or retail store (41.0%) or doctor's office or hospital (31.6%).

Conclusions: Reports of atypical shoulder pain and dysfunction following IIV were uncommon, considering the amount of IIV use, and stable across influenza seasons. While specific etiology of cases is unknown, improperly administered vaccine, which is preventable, might be a factor. Prevention strategies include education, training, and adherence to best practices for vaccine administration.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2019.11.023DOI Listing
January 2020

Postlicensure Safety Surveillance of Recombinant Zoster Vaccine (Shingrix) - United States, October 2017-June 2018.

MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2019 Feb 1;68(4):91-94. Epub 2019 Feb 1.

Recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV; Shingrix), an adjuvanted glycoprotein vaccine, was licensed by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and recommended by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices for adults aged ≥50 years in October 2017 (1). The previously licensed live-attenuated zoster vaccine (ZVL; Zostavax) is recommended for adults aged ≥60 years. RZV is administered intramuscularly as a 2-dose series, with an interval of 2-6 months between doses. In prelicensure clinical trials, 85% of 6,773 vaccinated study participants reported local or systemic reactions after receiving RZV, with approximately 17% experiencing a grade 3 reaction (erythema or induration >3.5 inches or systemic symptoms that interfere with normal activity). However, rates of serious adverse events (i.e., hospitalization, prolongation of existing hospitalization, life-threatening illness, permanent disability, congenital anomaly or birth defect, or death) were similar in the RZV and placebo groups (2). After licensure, CDC and FDA began safety monitoring of RZV in the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) (3). During the first 8 months of use, when approximately 3.2 million RZV doses were distributed (GlaxoSmithKline, personal communication, 2018), VAERS received a total of 4,381 reports of adverse events, 130 (3.0%) of which were classified as serious. Commonly reported signs and symptoms included pyrexia (fever) (1,034; 23.6%), injection site pain (985; 22.5%), and injection site erythema (880; 20.1%). No unexpected patterns were detected in reports of adverse events or serious adverse events. Findings from early monitoring of RZV are consistent with the safety profile observed in prelicensure clinical trials.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm6804a4DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6400583PMC
February 2019

Anaphylaxis after vaccination reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, 1990-2016.

J Allergy Clin Immunol 2019 04 14;143(4):1465-1473. Epub 2019 Jan 14.

Immunization Safety Office, Division of Healthcare Quality Promotion, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Ga.

Background: Anaphylaxis, a rare and potentially life-threatening hypersensitivity reaction, can occur after vaccination.

Objective: We sought to describe reports of anaphylaxis after vaccination made to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) during 1990-2016.

Methods: We identified domestic reports of anaphylaxis within VAERS using a combination of Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activity queries and Preferred Terms. We performed a descriptive analysis, including history of hypersensitivity (anaphylaxis, respiratory allergies, and drug allergies) and vaccines given. We reviewed all serious reports and all nonserious reports with available medical records to determine if they met the Brighton Collaboration case definition for anaphylaxis or received a physician's diagnosis.

Results: During the analytic period, VAERS received 467,960 total reports; 828 met the Brighton Collaboration case definition or received a physician's diagnosis of anaphylaxis: 654 (79%) were classified as serious, and 669 (81%) had medical records available. Of 478 reports in children aged less than 19 years, 65% were male; childhood vaccines were most commonly reported. Of 350 reports in persons aged 19 years or greater, 80% were female, and influenza vaccines were most frequently reported. Overall, 41% of reports described persons with no history of hypersensitivity. We identified 8 deaths, 4 among persons with no history of hypersensitivity.

Conclusion: Anaphylaxis after vaccination is rare in the United States and can occur among persons with no history of hypersensitivity. Most persons recover fully with treatment, but serious complications, including death, can occur.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jaci.2018.12.1003DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6580415PMC
April 2019

Adverse events following quadrivalent meningococcal CRM-conjugate vaccine (Menveo®) reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting system (VAERS), 2010-2015.

Vaccine 2017 03 3;35(14):1758-1763. Epub 2017 Mar 3.

Immunization Safety Office, Division of Healthcare Quality Promotion, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Road NE, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA.

Background: Limited data are available describing the post-licensure safety of meningococcal vaccines, including Menveo®. We reviewed reports of adverse events (AEs) to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) to assess safety in all age groups.

Methods: VAERS is a national spontaneous vaccine safety surveillance system co-administered by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US Food and Drug Administration. We searched the VAERS database for US reports of adverse events in persons who received Menveo from 1 January 2010 through 31 December 2015. We clinically reviewed reports and available medical records for serious AEs, selected pre-specified outcomes, and vaccination during pregnancy. We used empirical Bayesian data mining to identify AEs that were disproportionately reported after receipt of Menveo.

Results: During the study period, VAERS received 2614 US reports after receipt of Menveo. Of these, 67 were classified as serious, including 1 report of death. Adolescents (aged 11-18years) accounted for 74% of reports. Most of the reported AEs were non-serious and described AEs consistent with data from pre-licensure studies. Anaphylaxis and syncope were the two most common events in the serious reports. We did not identify any new safety concerns after review of AEs that exceeded the data mining threshold, although we did observe disproportionate reporting for terms that were not associated with an adverse event (e.g., "incorrect drug dosage form administered", "wrong technique in drug usage process"). Although reports were limited, we did not find any evidence for concern regarding the use of Menveo during pregnancy.

Conclusions: In our review of VAERS reports, findings of AEs were consistent with the data from pre-licensure studies. Vaccine providers should continue to emphasize and adhere to proper administration of the vaccine.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2017.02.030DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5444082PMC
March 2017