Publications by authors named "Boris Bikbov"

27 Publications

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Transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

Authors:
Boris Bikbov

Ann Intern Med 2021 07;174(7):1036-1037

Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri IRCCS, Ranica, Italy.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.7326/L21-0164DOI Listing
July 2021

Fighting the unbearable lightness of neglecting kidney health: the decade of the kidney.

Clin Kidney J 2021 Jul 20;14(7):1719-1730. Epub 2021 Apr 20.

IMEC Eindhoven, Eindhoven, the Netherlands.

A brief comprehensive overview is provided of the elements constituting the burden of kidney disease [chronic kidney disease (CKD) and acute kidney injury]. This publication can be used for advocacy, emphasizing the importance and urgency of reducing this heavy and rapidly growing burden. Kidney diseases contribute to significant physical limitations, loss of quality of life, emotional and cognitive disorders, social isolation and premature death. CKD affects close to 100 million Europeans, with 300 million being at risk, and is projected to become the fifth cause of worldwide death by 2040. Kidney disease also imposes financial burdens, given the costs of accessing healthcare and inability to work. The extrapolated annual cost of all CKD is at least as high as that for cancer or diabetes. In addition, dialysis treatment of kidney diseases imposes environmental burdens by necessitating high energy and water consumption and producing plastic waste. Acute kidney injury is associated with further increases in global morbidity, mortality and economic burden. Yet investment in research for treatment of kidney disease lags behind that of other diseases. This publication is a call for European investment in research for kidney health. The innovations generated should mirror the successful European Union actions against cancer over the last 30 years. It is also a plea to nephrology professionals, patients and their families, caregivers and kidney health advocacy organizations to draw, during the Decade of the Kidney (2020-30), the attention of authorities to realize changes in understanding, research and treatment of kidney disease.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ckj/sfab070DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8243275PMC
July 2021

Long-Term Outcomes of Kidney Transplants from Older/Marginal Donors: A Cohort Study.

Nephron 2021 Jun 15:1-11. Epub 2021 Jun 15.

Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri IRCCS, Bergamo, Italy.

Introduction: To safely expand the donor pool, we introduced a strategy of biopsy-guided selection and allocation to single or dual transplantation of kidneys from donors >60 years old or with hypertension, diabetes, and/or proteinuria (older/marginal donors). Here, we evaluated the long-term performance of this approach in everyday clinical practice.

Methods: In this single-center cohort study, we compared outcomes of 98 patients who received one or two biopsy-evaluated grafts from older/marginal donors ("recipients") and 198 patients who received nonhistologically assessed single graft from ideal donors ("reference-recipients") from October 2004 to December 2015 at the Bergamo Transplant Center (Italy).

Results: Older/marginal donors and their recipients were 27.9 and 19.3 years older than ideal donors and their reference-recipients, respectively. KDPI/KDRI and donor serum creatinine were higher and cold ischemia time longer in the recipient group. During a median follow-up of 51.9 (interquartile range 23.1-88.6) months, 11.2% of recipients died, 7.1% lost their graft, and 16.3% had biopsy-proven acute rejection (BPAR) versus 3.5, 7.6, and 17.7%, respectively, of reference-recipients. Overall death-censored graft failure (rate ratio 0.78 [95% CI 0.33-2.08]), 5-year death-censored graft survival (94.3% [87.8-100.0] vs. 94.2% [90.5-98.0]), BPAR incidence (rate ratio 0.87 [0.49-1.62]), and yearly measured glomerular filtration rate decline (1.18 ± 3.27 vs. 0.68 ± 2.42 mL/min/1.73 m2, p = 0.37) were similar between recipients and reference-recipients, respectively.

Conclusions: Biopsy-guided selection and allocation of kidneys from older/marginal donors can safely increase transplant activity in clinical practice without affecting long-term outcomes. This may help manage the growing gap between organ demand and supply without affecting long-term recipient and graft outcomes.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1159/000516534DOI Listing
June 2021

Trends in cardiovascular diseases burden and vascular risk factors in Italy: The Global Burden of Disease study 1990-2017.

Eur J Prev Cardiol 2021 05;28(4):385-396

School of Medicine and Surgery, Research Centre on Public Health (CESP), University of Milano-Bicocca, Italy.

Aims: An exhaustive and updated estimation of cardiovascular disease burden and vascular risk factors is still lacking in European countries. This study aims to fill this gap assessing the global Italian cardiovascular disease burden and its changes from 1990 to 2017 and comparing the Italian situation with European countries.

Methods: All accessible data sources from the 2017 Global Burden of Disease study were used to estimate the cardiovascular disease prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years and cardiovascular disease attributable risk factors burden in Italy from 1990 to 2017. Furthermore, we compared the cardiovascular disease burden within the 28 European Union countries.

Results: Since 1990, we observed a significant decrease of cardiovascular disease burden, particularly in the age-standardised prevalence (-12.7%), mortality rate (-53.8%), and disability-adjusted life years rate (-55.5%). Similar improvements were observed in the majority of European countries. However, we found an increase in all-ages prevalence of cardiovascular diseases from 5.75 m to 7.49 m Italian residents. Cardiovascular diseases still remain the first cause of death (34.8% of total mortality). More than 80% of the cardiovascular disease burden could be attributed to known modifiable risk factors such as high systolic blood pressure, dietary risks, high low density lipoprotein cholesterol, and impaired kidney function.

Conclusions: Our study shows a decline in cardiovascular mortality and disability-adjusted life years, which reflects the success in reducing disability, premature death and early incidence of cardiovascular diseases. However, the burden of cardiovascular diseases is still high. An approach that includes the cooperation and coordination of all stakeholders of the Italian National Health System is required to further reduce this burden.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2047487320949414DOI Listing
May 2021

Maximum incubation period for COVID-19 infection: Do we need to rethink the 14-day quarantine policy?

Travel Med Infect Dis 2021 Mar-Apr;40:101976. Epub 2021 Jan 18.

Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales, 54 bd Raspial, 75006, Paris, France.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tmaid.2021.101976DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7816956PMC
April 2021

Letter to the Editor: Chronic Kidney Disease - a Neglected Disease in the Economic Conditions Burden Analysis in Korea.

Authors:
Boris Bikbov

J Korean Med Sci 2019 Aug 19;34(32):e220. Epub 2019 Aug 19.

Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri IRCCS, Bergamo, Italy.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.3346/jkms.2019.34.e220DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6698453PMC
August 2019

R Open Source Programming Code for Calculation of the Kidney Donor Profile Index and Kidney Donor Risk Index.

Authors:
Boris Bikbov

Kidney Dis (Basel) 2018 Nov 5;4(4):269-272. Epub 2018 Sep 5.

Academician V.I.Shumakov Federal Research Center of Transplantology and Artificial Organs, Moscow, Russian Federation.

Background: The Kidney Donor Profile Index (KDPI) and Kidney Donor Risk Index (KDRI) were developed by the United States Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN). They may influence the clinical decision whether to accept or discard a donor kidney, but still there are debates about KDPI/KDRI applicability and its consequences. To further evaluate these indexes in different populations, more data should be analyzed, and a universally applicable program code would facilitate it. Currently, KDPI/KDRI calculation could be readily done only on the OPTN website that is convenient for a single donor, but not suitable for processing data sets with many records.

Summary: A universally applicable program algorithm in widely used R language for calculating KDPI and KDRI was developed according to donor factors and coefficients described in the OPTN guide.

Key Messages: The open R code permits to calculate KDPI/KDRI either for a single donor or for an unlimited number of records in large data sets. The presented software code would save substantial time to research groups all over the world and help to clarify the KDPI/KDRI role in global settings.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1159/000492427DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6276747PMC
November 2018

A comparison of metrics and performance characteristics of different search strategies for article retrieval for a systematic review of the global epidemiology of kidney and urinary diseases.

BMC Med Res Methodol 2018 10 19;18(1):110. Epub 2018 Oct 19.

Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri IRCCS, Via G.-B. Camozzi 3 -, 24020, Bergamo, Ranica, Italy.

Background: Conducting a systematic review requires a comprehensive bibliographic search. Comparing different search strategies is essential for choosing those that cover all useful data sources. Our aim was to develop search strategies for article retrieval for a systematic review of the global epidemiology of kidney and urinary diseases, and evaluate their metrics and performance characteristics that could be useful for other systematic epidemiologic reviews.

Methods: We described the methodological framework and analysed approaches applied in the previously conducted systematic review intended to obtain published data for global estimates of the kidney and urinary disease burden. We used several search strategies in PubMed and EMBASE, and compared several metrics: number needed to retrieve (NNR), number of extracted data rows, number of covered countries, and when appropriate, sensitivity, specificity, precision, and accuracy.

Results: The initial search obtained 29,460 records from PubMed, and 4247 from EMBASE. After the revision, the full text of 381 and 14 articles respectively was obtained for data extraction (the percentage of useful records is 1.3% for PubMed, 0.3% for EMBASE). For PubMed we developed two search strategies and compared them with a 'gold standard' formed by merging their results: free word search strategy (FreeWoSS) was based on the search for keywords in all fields, and subject headings based search strategy (SuHeSS) used only MeSH-mapped conditions and countries names. SuHeSS excluded almost 15% of useful articles and data rows extracted from them, but had a lower NNR of 40 and higher specificity. FreeWoSS had better sensitivity and was able to cover the vast majority of articles and extracted data rows, but had a higher NNR of 65.

Conclusions: The sensitive FreeWoSS strategy provides more data for modelling, while the more specific SuHeSS strategy could be used when resources are limited. EMBASE has limited value for our systematic review.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12874-018-0569-8DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6194627PMC
October 2018

Disparities in Chronic Kidney Disease Prevalence among Males and Females in 195 Countries: Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study.

Nephron 2018 23;139(4):313-318. Epub 2018 May 23.

IRCCS - Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri, Bergamo, Italy.

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) imposes a substantial burden on health care systems. There are some especially vulnerable groups with a high CKD burden, one of which is women. We performed an analysis of gender disparities in the prevalence of all CKD stages and renal replacement therapy (defined as impaired kidney function [IKF]) in 195 countries.

Methods: We used estimates produced by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016 revision using a Bayesian-regression analytic tool, DisMoD-MR 2.1. Data on gross domestic product based on purchasing power parity per capita (GDP PPP) was obtained via the World Bank International Comparison Program database. To estimate gender disparities, we calculated the male:female all-age prevalence rate ratio for each IKF condition.

Results: In 2016, the global number of individuals with IKF reached 752.7 million, including 417.0 million females and 335.7 million males. The most prevalent form of IKF in both groups was albuminuria with preserved glomerular filtration rate. Geospatial analysis shows a very heterogeneous distribution of the male:female ratio for all IKF conditions, with the most prominent contrast found in kidney transplant patients. The median male:female ratio varies substantially according to GDP PPP quintiles; however, countries with different economic states could have similar male:female ratios. A strong correlation of GDP PPP with dialysis-to-transplant ratio was found.

Conclusions: The GBD study highlights the prominent gender disparities in CKD prevalence among 195 countries. The nature of these disparities, however, is complex and must be interpreted cautiously taking into account all possible circumstances.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1159/000489897DOI Listing
September 2019

Global Cardiovascular and Renal Outcomes of Reduced GFR.

J Am Soc Nephrol 2017 Jul 13;28(7):2167-2179. Epub 2017 Apr 13.

National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Framingham, MA.

The burden of premature death and health loss from ESRD is well described. Less is known regarding the burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to reduced GFR. We estimated the prevalence of reduced GFR categories 3, 4, and 5 (not on RRT) for 188 countries at six time points from 1990 to 2013. Relative risks of cardiovascular outcomes by three categories of reduced GFR were calculated by pooled random effects meta-analysis. Results are presented as deaths for outcomes of cardiovascular disease and ESRD and as disability-adjusted life years for outcomes of cardiovascular disease, GFR categories 3, 4, and 5, and ESRD. In 2013, reduced GFR was associated with 4% of deaths worldwide, or 2.2 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval [95% UI], 2.0 to 2.4 million). More than half of these attributable deaths were cardiovascular deaths (1.2 million; 95% UI, 1.1 to 1.4 million), whereas 0.96 million (95% UI, 0.81 to 1.0 million) were ESRD-related deaths. Compared with metabolic risk factors, reduced GFR ranked below high systolic BP, high body mass index, and high fasting plasma glucose, and similarly with high total cholesterol as a risk factor for disability-adjusted life years in both developed and developing world regions. In conclusion, by 2013, cardiovascular deaths attributed to reduced GFR outnumbered ESRD deaths throughout the world. Studies are needed to evaluate the benefit of early detection of CKD and treatment to decrease these deaths.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1681/ASN.2016050562DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5491277PMC
July 2017

Child and Adolescent Health From 1990 to 2015: Findings From the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2015 Study.

JAMA Pediatr 2017 06;171(6):573-592

The Hospital for Sick Children, Centre for Child Health, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

Importance: Comprehensive and timely monitoring of disease burden in all age groups, including children and adolescents, is essential for improving population health.

Objective: To quantify and describe levels and trends of mortality and nonfatal health outcomes among children and adolescents from 1990 to 2015 to provide a framework for policy discussion.

Evidence Review: Cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes were analyzed for 195 countries and territories by age group, sex, and year from 1990 to 2015 using standardized approaches for data processing and statistical modeling, with subsequent analysis of the findings to describe levels and trends across geography and time among children and adolescents 19 years or younger. A composite indicator of income, education, and fertility was developed (Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) for each geographic unit and year, which evaluates the historical association between SDI and health loss.

Findings: Global child and adolescent mortality decreased from 14.18 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 14.09 million to 14.28 million) deaths in 1990 to 7.26 million (95% UI, 7.14 million to 7.39 million) deaths in 2015, but progress has been unevenly distributed. Countries with a lower SDI had a larger proportion of mortality burden (75%) in 2015 than was the case in 1990 (61%). Most deaths in 2015 occurred in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Global trends were driven by reductions in mortality owing to infectious, nutritional, and neonatal disorders, which in the aggregate led to a relative increase in the importance of noncommunicable diseases and injuries in explaining global disease burden. The absolute burden of disability in children and adolescents increased 4.3% (95% UI, 3.1%-5.6%) from 1990 to 2015, with much of the increase owing to population growth and improved survival for children and adolescents to older ages. Other than infectious conditions, many top causes of disability are associated with long-term sequelae of conditions present at birth (eg, neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, and hemoglobinopathies) and complications of a variety of infections and nutritional deficiencies. Anemia, developmental intellectual disability, hearing loss, epilepsy, and vision loss are important contributors to childhood disability that can arise from multiple causes. Maternal and reproductive health remains a key cause of disease burden in adolescent females, especially in lower-SDI countries. In low-SDI countries, mortality is the primary driver of health loss for children and adolescents, whereas disability predominates in higher-SDI locations; the specific pattern of epidemiological transition varies across diseases and injuries.

Conclusions And Relevance: Consistent international attention and investment have led to sustained improvements in causes of health loss among children and adolescents in many countries, although progress has been uneven. The persistence of infectious diseases in some countries, coupled with ongoing epidemiologic transition to injuries and noncommunicable diseases, require all countries to carefully evaluate and implement appropriate strategies to maximize the health of their children and adolescents and for the international community to carefully consider which elements of child and adolescent health should be monitored.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jamapediatrics.2017.0250DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5540012PMC
June 2017

Hepatitis C Virus and Kidney Disease: Evidence, Hope, and Hurdles.

Authors:
Boris Bikbov

Nephron 2017 23;136(2):51-53. Epub 2017 Feb 23.

Medicina Renale, IRCCS - Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri, Bergamo, Italy.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1159/000460267DOI Listing
November 2017

Hemodialysis practice patterns in the Russia Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (DOPPS), with international comparisons.

Hemodial Int 2017 07 27;21(3):393-408. Epub 2016 Oct 27.

Arbor Research Collaborative for Health, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.

Introduction: There is little comparable information about hemodialysis (HD) practices in low- and middle income countries, including Russia. Evaluation of HD in Russia and its international comparisons could highlight factors providing opportunities for improvement.

Methods: We examined treatment patterns for 481 prevalent HD patients in 20 Russian facilities, and compared them to contemporary data for 8512 patients from 311 facilities in seven European countries, Japan, and North America. Data were collected according to the uniform methodology of the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study, phase 5.

Findings: Compared to other regions, Russian patients were younger (mean age 53.4 years), had a lower percent of males (52.5%), higher arteriovenous fistula use (89.7%), and longer treatment time (mean: 252 minutes, SD: 37 minutes). Mean single pool Kt/V was 1.49 (SD 0.58). Prescription of dialysate calcium 3.5 mEq/L and aluminum-based phosphate binders were high (15.2% and 17.6% of patients, respectively), while intravenous vitamin D and cinacalcet were low (3.3% and 2.2%, respectively). The percents with parathyroid hormone >600 pg/mL (30.9%) and serum phosphate >1.78 mmol/L (37.7%) were high. Use of erythropoetin stimulating agents (78%) was lower, but hemoglobin, ferritin, and transferrin saturation were generally comparable to North America and Europe.

Discussion: These detailed data for hemodialysis in Russia demonstrate that many practice patterns contrasted sharply to those in Europe, Japan, and North America, while other features were similar. Our analysis revealed several positive and some less favorable treatment patterns in Russia that represent opportunities for improving patient care and outcomes.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/hdi.12503DOI Listing
July 2017

Renal replacement therapy in Europe: a summary of the 2013 ERA-EDTA Registry Annual Report with a focus on diabetes mellitus.

Clin Kidney J 2016 Jun 31;9(3):457-69. Epub 2016 Jan 31.

REIN Registry, Agence de la Biomédecine , Paris , France.

Background: This article provides a summary of the 2013 European Renal Association-European Dialysis and Transplant Association (ERA-EDTA) Registry Annual Report (available at http://www.era-edta-reg.org), with a focus on patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) as the cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD).

Methods: In 2015, the ERA-EDTA Registry received data on renal replacement therapy (RRT) for ESRD from 49 national or regional renal registries in 34 countries in Europe and bordering the Mediterranean Sea. Individual patient data were provided by 31 registries, while 18 registries provided aggregated data. The total population covered by the participating registries comprised 650 million people.

Results: In total, 72 933 patients started RRT for ESRD within the countries and regions reporting to the ERA-EDTA Registry, resulting in an overall incidence of 112 per million population (pmp). The overall prevalence on 31 December 2013 was 738 pmp (n = 478 990). Patients with DM as the cause of ESRD comprised 24% of the incident RRT patients (26 pmp) and 17% of the prevalent RRT patients (122 pmp). When compared with the USA, the incidence of patients starting RRT pmp secondary to DM in Europe was five times lower and the incidence of RRT due to other causes of ESRD was two times lower. Overall, 19 426 kidney transplants were performed (30 pmp). The 5-year adjusted survival for all RRT patients was 60.9% [95% confidence interval (CI) 60.5-61.3] and 50.6% (95% CI 49.9-51.2) for patients with DM as the cause of ESRD.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ckj/sfv151DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4886899PMC
June 2016

Chronic kidney disease and cardiovascular risk in six regions of the world (ISN-KDDC): a cross-sectional study.

Lancet Glob Health 2016 May;4(5):e307-19

IRCCS-Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche "Mario Negri", Clinical Research Center for Rare Diseases "Aldo e Cele Daccò", Ranica, Italy; Department of Medicine, Unit of Nephrology and Dialysis, Azienda Ospedaliera Papa Giovanni XXIII, Bergamo, Italy; Department of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences, University of Milan, Milan, Italy.

Background: Chronic kidney disease is an important cause of global mortality and morbidity. Data for epidemiological features of chronic kidney disease and its risk factors are limited for low-income and middle-income countries. The International Society of Nephrology's Kidney Disease Data Center (ISN-KDDC) aimed to assess the prevalence and awareness of chronic kidney disease and its risk factors, and to investigate the risk of cardiovascular disease, in countries of low and middle income.

Methods: We did a cross-sectional study in 12 countries from six world regions: Bangladesh, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, China, Egypt, Georgia, India, Iran, Moldova, Mongolia, Nepal, and Nigeria. We analysed data from screening programmes in these countries, matching eight general and four high-risk population cohorts collected in the ISN-KDDC database. High-risk cohorts were individuals at risk of or with a diagnosis of either chronic kidney disease, hypertension, diabetes, or cardiovascular disease. Participants completed a self-report questionnaire, had their blood pressure measured, and blood and urine samples taken. We defined chronic kidney disease according to modified KDIGO (Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes) criteria; risk of cardiovascular disease development was estimated with the Framingham risk score.

Findings: 75,058 individuals were included in the study. The prevalence of chronic kidney disease was 14·3% (95% CI 14·0-14·5) in general populations and 36·1% (34·7-37·6) in high-risk populations. Overall awareness of chronic kidney disease was low, with 409 (6%) of 6631 individuals in general populations and 150 (10%) of 1524 participants from high-risk populations aware they had chronic kidney disease. Moreover, in the general population, 5600 (44%) of 12,751 individuals with hypertension did not know they had the disorder, and 973 (31%) of 3130 people with diabetes were unaware they had that disease. The number of participants at high risk of cardiovascular disease, according to the Framingham risk score, was underestimated compared with KDIGO guidelines. For example, all individuals with chronic kidney disease should be considered at high risk of cardiovascular disease, but the Framingham risk score detects only 23% in the general population, and only 38% in high-risk cohorts.

Interpretation: Prevalence of chronic kidney disease was high in general and high-risk populations from countries of low and middle income. Moreover, awareness of chronic kidney disease and other non-communicable diseases was low, and a substantial number of individuals who knew they were ill did not receive treatment. Prospective programmes with repeat testing are needed to confirm the diagnosis of chronic kidney disease and its risk factors. Furthermore, in general, health-care workforces in countries of low and middle income need strengthening.

Funding: International Society of Nephrology.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(16)00071-1DOI Listing
May 2016

Global and National Burden of Diseases and Injuries Among Children and Adolescents Between 1990 and 2013: Findings From the Global Burden of Disease 2013 Study.

JAMA Pediatr 2016 Mar;170(3):267-87

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle.

Importance: The literature focuses on mortality among children younger than 5 years. Comparable information on nonfatal health outcomes among these children and the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among older children and adolescents is scarce.

Objective: To determine levels and trends in the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among younger children (aged <5 years), older children (aged 5-9 years), and adolescents (aged 10-19 years) between 1990 and 2013 in 188 countries from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study.

Evidence Review: Data from vital registration, verbal autopsy studies, maternal and child death surveillance, and other sources covering 14,244 site-years (ie, years of cause of death data by geography) from 1980 through 2013 were used to estimate cause-specific mortality. Data from 35,620 epidemiological sources were used to estimate the prevalence of the diseases and sequelae in the GBD 2013 study. Cause-specific mortality for most causes was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model strategy. For some infectious diseases (eg, HIV infection/AIDS, measles, hepatitis B) where the disease process is complex or the cause of death data were insufficient or unavailable, we used natural history models. For most nonfatal health outcomes, DisMod-MR 2.0, a Bayesian metaregression tool, was used to meta-analyze the epidemiological data to generate prevalence estimates.

Findings: Of the 7.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7.4-8.1) million deaths among children and adolescents globally in 2013, 6.28 million occurred among younger children, 0.48 million among older children, and 0.97 million among adolescents. In 2013, the leading causes of death were lower respiratory tract infections among younger children (905.059 deaths; 95% UI, 810,304-998,125), diarrheal diseases among older children (38,325 deaths; 95% UI, 30,365-47,678), and road injuries among adolescents (115,186 deaths; 95% UI, 105,185-124,870). Iron deficiency anemia was the leading cause of years lived with disability among children and adolescents, affecting 619 (95% UI, 618-621) million in 2013. Large between-country variations exist in mortality from leading causes among children and adolescents. Countries with rapid declines in all-cause mortality between 1990 and 2013 also experienced large declines in most leading causes of death, whereas countries with the slowest declines had stagnant or increasing trends in the leading causes of death. In 2013, Nigeria had a 12% global share of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections and a 38% global share of deaths from malaria. India had 33% of the world's deaths from neonatal encephalopathy. Half of the world's diarrheal deaths among children and adolescents occurred in just 5 countries: India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Ethiopia.

Conclusions And Relevance: Understanding the levels and trends of the leading causes of death and disability among children and adolescents is critical to guide investment and inform policies. Monitoring these trends over time is also key to understanding where interventions are having an impact. Proven interventions exist to prevent or treat the leading causes of unnecessary death and disability among children and adolescents. The findings presented here show that these are underused and give guidance to policy makers in countries where more attention is needed.
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http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5076765PMC
http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jamapediatrics.2015.4276DOI Listing
March 2016

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

Lancet 2015 Dec 11;386(10010):2287-323. Epub 2015 Sep 11.

Background: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.

Methods: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.

Findings: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.

Interpretation: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(15)00128-2DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4685753PMC
December 2015

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990-2013: quantifying the epidemiological transition.

Lancet 2015 Nov 28;386(10009):2145-91. Epub 2015 Aug 28.

Background: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age-sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development.

Methods: We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time.

Findings: Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6-6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0-65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0-71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9-5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5-59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7-64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3-7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6-29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non-communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries.

Interpretation: Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition--in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden--is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(15)61340-XDOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4673910PMC
November 2015

Maintenance Dialysis throughout the World in Years 1990 and 2010.

J Am Soc Nephrol 2015 Nov 24;26(11):2621-33. Epub 2015 Jul 24.

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington;

Rapidly rising global rates of chronic diseases portend a consequent rise in ESRD. Despite this, kidney disease is not included in the list of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) targeted by the United Nations for 25% reduction by year 2025. In an effort to accurately report the trajectory and pattern of global growth of maintenance dialysis, we present the change in prevalence and incidence from 1990 to 2010. Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2010 epidemiologic database. The results are on the basis of an analysis of data from worldwide national and regional renal disease registries and detailed systematic literature review for years 1980-2010. Incidence and prevalence estimates of provision of maintenance dialysis from this database were updated using a negative binomial Bayesian meta-regression tool for 187 countries. Results indicate substantial growth in utilization of maintenance dialysis in almost all world regions. Changes in population structure, changes in aging, and the worldwide increase in diabetes mellitus and hypertension explain a significant portion, but not all, of the increase because increased dialysis provision also accounts for a portion of the rise. These findings argue for the importance of inclusion of kidney disease among NCD targets for reducing premature death throughout the world.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1681/ASN.2014101017DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4625679PMC
November 2015

Renal replacement therapy in Europe: a summary of the 2011 ERA-EDTA Registry Annual Report.

Clin Kidney J 2014 Apr 2;7(2):227-38. Epub 2014 Mar 2.

ERA-EDTA Registry, Department of Medical Informatics , Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam , Amsterdam , the Netherlands.

Background: This article provides a summary of the 2011 ERA-EDTA Registry Annual Report (available at www.era-edta-reg.org).

Methods: Data on renal replacement therapy (RRT) for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) from national and regional renal registries in 30 countries in Europe and bordering the Mediterranean Sea were used. From 27 registries, individual patient data were received, whereas 17 registries contributed data in aggregated form. We present the incidence and prevalence of RRT, and renal transplant rates in 2011. In addition, survival probabilities and expected remaining lifetimes were calculated for those registries providing individual patient data.

Results: The overall unadjusted incidence rate of RRT in 2011 among all registries reporting to the ERA-EDTA Registry was 117 per million population (pmp) (n = 71.631). Incidence rates varied from 24 pmp in Ukraine to 238 pmp in Turkey. The overall unadjusted prevalence of RRT for ESRD on 31 December 2011 was 692 pmp (n = 425 824). The highest prevalence was reported by Portugal (1662 pmp) and the lowest by Ukraine (131 pmp). Among all registries, a total of 22 814 renal transplantations were performed (37 pmp). The highest overall transplant rate was reported from Spain, Cantabria (81 pmp), whereas the highest rate of living donor transplants was reported from Turkey (39 pmp). For patients who started RRT between 2002 and 2006, the unadjusted 5-year patient survival on RRT was 46.8% [95% confidence interval (CI) 46.6-47.0], and on dialysis 39.3% (95% CI 39.2-39.4). The unadjusted 5-year patient survival after the first renal transplantation performed between 2002 and 2006 was 86.7% (95% CI 86.2-87.2) for kidneys from deceased donors and 94.3% (95% CI 93.6-95.0) for kidneys from living donors.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ckj/sfu007DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4377783PMC
April 2014

High serum cholesterol: a missed risk factor for chronic kidney disease mortality.

Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol 2014 Aug;2(8):613-4

Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri (IRCCS), Bergamo, Italy; Unit of Nephrology, Dialysis and Transplantation, Azienda Ospedaliera Papa Giovanni XXIII, Bergamo, Italy.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2213-8587(14)70162-7DOI Listing
August 2014

Mortality landscape in the global burden of diseases, injuries and risk factors study.

Eur J Intern Med 2014 Jan 29;25(1):1-5. Epub 2013 Sep 29.

IRCCS, Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri, Bergamo, Italy; Unit of Nephrology, Dialysis and Transplantation, Azienda Ospedaliera Papa Giovanni XXIII, Bergamo, Italy.

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) is an initiative that involved 486 scientists from 302 institutions in 50 countries, under the leadership of a consortium formed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation of the University of Washington, World Health Organization, the University of Queensland School of Population Health, the Harvard School of Public Health, the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, the University of Tokyo and Imperial College London. The study has provided a state of the art understanding of the burden of 67 risk factors and their clusters, 291 diseases and injuries on global, regional and national levels in period from 1990 to 2010 for 187 countries. GBD 2010 estimates covered both mortality (expressed in number of deaths, years of life lost (YLL) due to premature mortality) and morbidity (mainly expressed as years lived with disability (YLD)), while the incidence and prevalence were not reported for majority of causes so far, although they were accounted and used for YLD calculations. Finally, each disease and risk factor was presented in terms of the disability-adjusted years of life (DALY) that is merely a sum of YLL and YLD. The major published results of GBD 2010 cover global and regional levels for all diseases and risk factors. Reports focused on specific conditions are also available. At country-level detailed estimates are published for UK, China and USA, and data on other countries are accessible only as aggregate partial representation via web-based tools.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejim.2013.09.002DOI Listing
January 2014

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

Lancet 2012 Dec;380(9859):2197-223

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle 98121, WA, USA.

Background: Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time.

Methods: We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights.

Findings: Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions.

Interpretation: Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results.

Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61689-4DOI Listing
December 2012

Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

Lancet 2012 Dec;380(9859):2163-96

School of Population Health, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.

Background: Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs).

Methods: Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis.

Findings: Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350,000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient -0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa.

Interpretation: Rates of YLDs per 100,000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world.

Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61729-2DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6350784PMC
December 2012

Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

Lancet 2012 Dec;380(9859):2095-128

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA.

Background: Reliable and timely information on the leading causes of death in populations, and how these are changing, is a crucial input into health policy debates. In the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), we aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex.

Methods: We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries. We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death. We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data. For 133 causes and three special aggregates we used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach, which uses four families of statistical models testing a large set of different models using different permutations of covariates. Model ensembles were developed from these component models. We assessed model performance with rigorous out-of-sample testing of prediction error and the validity of 95% UIs. For 13 causes with low observed numbers of deaths, we developed negative binomial models with plausible covariates. For 27 causes for which death is rare, we modelled the higher level cause in the cause hierarchy of the GBD 2010 and then allocated deaths across component causes proportionately, estimated from all available data in the database. For selected causes (African trypanosomiasis, congenital syphilis, whooping cough, measles, typhoid and parathyroid, leishmaniasis, acute hepatitis E, and HIV/AIDS), we used natural history models based on information on incidence, prevalence, and case-fatality. We separately estimated cause fractions by aetiology for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and meningitis, as well as disaggregations by subcause for chronic kidney disease, maternal disorders, cirrhosis, and liver cancer. For deaths due to collective violence and natural disasters, we used mortality shock regressions. For every cause, we estimated 95% UIs that captured both parameter estimation uncertainty and uncertainty due to model specification where CODEm was used. We constrained cause-specific fractions within every age-sex group to sum to total mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions.

Findings: In 2010, there were 52·8 million deaths globally. At the most aggregate level, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes were 24·9% of deaths worldwide in 2010, down from 15·9 million (34·1%) of 46·5 million in 1990. This decrease was largely due to decreases in mortality from diarrhoeal disease (from 2·5 to 1·4 million), lower respiratory infections (from 3·4 to 2·8 million), neonatal disorders (from 3·1 to 2·2 million), measles (from 0·63 to 0·13 million), and tetanus (from 0·27 to 0·06 million). Deaths from HIV/AIDS increased from 0·30 million in 1990 to 1·5 million in 2010, reaching a peak of 1·7 million in 2006. Malaria mortality also rose by an estimated 19·9% since 1990 to 1·17 million deaths in 2010. Tuberculosis killed 1·2 million people in 2010. Deaths from non-communicable diseases rose by just under 8 million between 1990 and 2010, accounting for two of every three deaths (34·5 million) worldwide by 2010. 8 million people died from cancer in 2010, 38% more than two decades ago; of these, 1·5 million (19%) were from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer. Ischaemic heart disease and stroke collectively killed 12·9 million people in 2010, or one in four deaths worldwide, compared with one in five in 1990; 1·3 million deaths were due to diabetes, twice as many as in 1990. The fraction of global deaths due to injuries (5·1 million deaths) was marginally higher in 2010 (9·6%) compared with two decades earlier (8·8%). This was driven by a 46% rise in deaths worldwide due to road traffic accidents (1·3 million in 2010) and a rise in deaths from falls. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lower respiratory infections, lung cancer, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of death in 2010. Ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, stroke, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) in 2010, similar to what was estimated for 1990, except for HIV/AIDS and preterm birth complications. YLLs from lower respiratory infections and diarrhoea decreased by 45-54% since 1990; ischaemic heart disease and stroke YLLs increased by 17-28%. Regional variations in leading causes of death were substantial. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes still accounted for 76% of premature mortality in sub-Saharan Africa in 2010. Age standardised death rates from some key disorders rose (HIV/AIDS, Alzheimer's disease, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease in particular), but for most diseases, death rates fell in the past two decades; including major vascular diseases, COPD, most forms of cancer, liver cirrhosis, and maternal disorders. For other conditions, notably malaria, prostate cancer, and injuries, little change was noted.

Interpretation: Population growth, increased average age of the world's population, and largely decreasing age-specific, sex-specific, and cause-specific death rates combine to drive a broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes towards non-communicable diseases. Nevertheless, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes remain the dominant causes of YLLs in sub-Saharan Africa. Overlaid on this general pattern of the epidemiological transition, marked regional variation exists in many causes, such as interpersonal violence, suicide, liver cancer, diabetes, cirrhosis, Chagas disease, African trypanosomiasis, melanoma, and others. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of sound epidemiological assessments of the causes of death on a regular basis.

Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61728-0DOI Listing
December 2012

Hepatitis C infection and chronic renal diseases.

Clin J Am Soc Nephrol 2009 Jan 7;4(1):207-20. Epub 2009 Jan 7.

Department of Medicine and Transplantation Ospedali Riuniti di Bergamo-Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research, Bergamo, Italy.

More than 170 million people worldwide are chronically infected with the hepatitis C virus (HCV), which is responsible for over 1 million deaths resulting from cirrhosis and liver cancers. Extrahepatic manifestations are also relevant and include mixed cryoglobulinemia, lymphoproliferative disorders, and kidney disease. HCV infection is both a cause and a complication of chronic kidney disease, occurring largely in the context of mixed cryoglobulinemia. This infection also represents a major medical and epidemiologic challenge in patients with end-stage renal disease on renal replacement therapy with dialysis or transplantation. In these settings the presence of HCV correlates with higher rates of patient mortality than in HCV-negative subjects on dialysis or undergoing kidney transplant. The major concern is the lack of safe and effective drugs to treat HCV-infected patients with chronic kidney disease. Unfortunately, there are no large-scale clinical trials in this population, especially those receiving renal replacement therapy, so that strong evidence for treatment recommendations is scant. This review article provides the readers with the most recent insights on HCV infection both as cause and complication of chronic kidney disease, discusses pitfalls and limitations of current therapies, and reports on preliminary experience with novel therapeutic agents, as well as directions for future research.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.2215/CJN.03710708DOI Listing
January 2009

Some notes about the usage of the Charlson co-morbidity index.

Nephrol Dial Transplant 2004 Nov;19(11):2926-7; author reply 2927

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ndt/gfh463DOI Listing
November 2004
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