Publications by authors named "Bofeng Cai"

16 Publications

  • Page 1 of 1

Co-benefits of peaking carbon dioxide emissions on air quality and health, a case of Guangzhou, China.

J Environ Manage 2021 Mar 18;282:111796. Epub 2021 Jan 18.

Environmental Defense Fund, Beijing, 100007, China.

Cities play a key role in making carbon emission reduction targets achievable and tackling air pollution. Using Guangzhou city as a case, this paper explored the air quality and health co-benefits of peaking carbon dioxide emissions under three scenarios and developed an integrated assessment framework by combining a local air pollutant emission inventory, an atmospheric chemistry transport model, and a health assessment model. The results showed that SO, PM, and PM could achieve larger emission reductions than NH, VOCs, and NOx among all the scenarios we examined. Under the enhanced peaking scenario with the most stringent mitigation strategies, Guangzhou could meet the local ambient air quality standard for PM (34 μg/m), with the most reduction observed in the annual average PM concentration (28.4%) and related premature deaths (17.08%), compared with the base year 2015. We also identified hotspot grids, which were areas with high concentrations of carbon emissions, high concentrations of air pollution and poor air quality in Guangzhou. Our analysis highlighted the importance of promoting peaking carbon dioxide emission for the improvement of air quality and public health at the city level.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111796DOI Listing
March 2021

Characteristics of carbon dioxide emissions in response to local development: Empirical explanation of Zipf's law in Chinese cities.

Sci Total Environ 2021 Feb 3;757:143912. Epub 2020 Dec 3.

Institute of Environment Sciences, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Québec at Montréal, Montréal, QC H3C 3P8, Canada; Tourism Institute, Beijing Union University, 99, Beisihuan East Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, China.

Carbon emissions and city development are currently two major areas of interest worldwide. With the continuous development of cities, the problem of carbon emissions has received substantial attention. Analyzing the relationship between carbon emissions and city development is key to building low-carbon cities. This paper selects the revised Zipf's law to explore diverse carbon emission characteristics in different stages of city development and tries to verify the balance of city development and the rationality of key emitting sectors in China, thus filling a gap in this domain. Based on the analysis of different emitting sectors and diverse city categories, several discoveries are made. First, nearly 80% of Chinese cities have reached the ideal state of Zipf's law between carbon dioxide (CO) emissions and city development. In general, carbon emissions and city development are basically matched at the present stage. Second, in cities, the carbon emissions of the agricultural and industrial processes sectors are relatively balanced and stable with the city development. In addition, only the traffic sector is in the stage of intensive development. Other sectors (industrial energy, rural household, urban household, services, and indirect emissions) need to be further optimized. Third, CO emissions in other type of cities are basically matched with the city development. Industrial cities, megalopolises and metropolises are in the stage of intensive development, while cities of other types (service-oriented cities and small-medium cities) need to be further optimized. Fourth, corresponding measures, such as adjusting energy and industrial structure, optimizing resource allocation, and promoting intensive production, need to be taken to optimize carbon emissions in cities of different types and in different emitting sectors. Our study provides a particular theoretical basis and practical value, for China and other countries in similar situations, to coordinate the matching correlation between city development and carbon emissions in the future.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143912DOI Listing
February 2021

Impacts of the COVID-19 event on the NOx emissions of key polluting enterprises in China.

Appl Energy 2021 Jan 24;281:116042. Epub 2020 Oct 24.

College of Resources and Environment, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430072, China.

The unprecedented cessation of human activities during the COVID-19 pandemic has affected China's industrial production and NOx emissions. Quantifying the changes in NOx emissions resulting from COVID-19 and associated governmental control measures is crucial to understanding its impacts on the environment. Here, we divided the research timeframe into three periods: the normal operation period (P1), the Spring Festival period (P2), and the epidemic period following the Spring Festival (P3). We then calculated the NOx operating vent numbers and emission concentrations of key polluting enterprises in 29 provinces and 20 industrial sectors and compared the data for the same periods in 2020 and 2019 to obtain the impacts of COVID-19 on industrial NOx emissions. We found that spatially, from P1 to P2 in 2020, the operating NOx vent numbers in North China changed the most, with a relative change rate of -33.84%. Comparing the operating vent numbers in P1 and P3, East China experienced the largest decrease, approximately -32.72%. Among all industrial sectors, the mining industry, manufacturing industry, power, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry, and the wholesale and retail industry, were the most heavily influenced. In general, the operating vent numbers of key polluting enterprises in China decreased by 24.68%, and the standardized NOx () decreased by an average of -9.54 ± -6.00 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The results suggest that COVID-19 significantly reduced the NOx emission levels of the key polluting enterprises in China.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.116042DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7585500PMC
January 2021

Establishment of High-Resolution Atmospheric Mercury Emission Inventories for Chinese Cement Plants Based on the Mass Balance Method.

Environ Sci Technol 2020 11 21;54(21):13399-13408. Epub 2020 Oct 21.

Ministry of Education Laboratory of Earth Surface Process, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.

China is the world's largest cement-related mercury emitter. Atmospheric mercury inventories for China's cement industry are essential for appraising global mercury emissions and have been widely developed in previous studies associated with considerable uncertainties. In this study, we compiled high tempo-spatial resolution atmospheric mercury emission inventories for Chinese cement plants using the mass balance method and plant-level input-output data. The effects of industry policies were investigated based on the inventories for 2007 and 2015. Nationwide emissions increased from 80 to 113 t due to rapid expansion of production and kiln-type substitution yet partly offset by policies involving capacity structure reformation. Pollution decreased in winter in northern China, thanks to the targeting policies. Mercury input, output, and storage in cement kilns in China were estimated. The uncertainty remarkably decreased relative to previous inventories. This study demonstrates the feasibility of establishing high-resolution emission inventories with the application of the mass balance method for all the individual plants nationwide and thus has implications for similar studies. This work also improves our understanding of the spatial patterns and temporal evolution of mercury emissions in China, thus offering references for the implementation of environment policies and the Minamata Convention on Mercury in China.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.0c02963DOI Listing
November 2020

Toward low-carbon development: Assessing emissions-reduction pressure among Chinese cities.

J Environ Manage 2020 Oct 16;271:111036. Epub 2020 Jul 16.

Institute Environmental Ecological Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, Guangdong, 510006, China.

Assessing emissions-reduction pressure among Chinese cities is a critical task for local governments formulating and implementing environmental policies. From the perspectives of carbon intensity and carbon inequality, this study develops an improved carbon dioxide (CO) emissions-reduction index to quantify emissions-reduction pressure on 284 cities in China. Results indicate that driven by the decrease of overall carbon intensity and the rise of inter-city carbon inequality, emissions-reduction pressure on 41.38% of provinces and 49.65% of cities was greater than the overall national level; emissions-reduction pressure on 52.35% of cities exceeded the provincial average level. The central government determines national emissions-reduction pressure by adjusting carbon-inequality tolerance between cities and determines carbon-inequality preference based on population and economic output principles. These determinations become benchmarks for local governments' CO emissions-reduction pressure. Provinces and cities that exceed benchmarks become foci for promoting energy savings, emissions reduction, and low-carbon development in the future.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111036DOI Listing
October 2020

Who is a good neighbor? Analysis of frontrunner cities with comparative advantages in low-carbon development.

J Environ Manage 2020 Sep 27;269:110804. Epub 2020 May 27.

School of Resource and Environmental Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430079, China.

A well-developed economy and low-carbon emission intensity are important characteristics of low-carbon cities; they also represent important tasks for achieving global climate change mitigation goals. It is seldom discussed, however, how we should identify frontrunner cities from which low-carbon development experiences can be gleaned and then implemented in neighboring cities. This study, therefore, proposed a simple indicator-the "good neighbor index"-to identify frontrunner cities in low-carbon transformation based on economic and emission performance. Based on this indicator, we identified "good neighbors" in static and dynamic views for China. The results showed that the static good neighbors in 2015 were mostly large cities with higher incomes and better industrial structures whereas the dynamic neighbors achieved better economic growth and emission reductions from 2005 to 2015, though their economic and emissions statuses were generally worse. The good neighbor list is not consistent with the list of national low-carbon pilot cities, which has largely overlooked the experiences of some fast-growing cities. These results have policy implications for the Chinese government in terms of promoting the low-carbon transformation of cities. The study can also provide a reference for other countries in addressing climate change at the city level.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110804DOI Listing
September 2020

Mapping global carbon footprint in China.

Nat Commun 2020 05 7;11(1):2237. Epub 2020 May 7.

School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109-1041, USA.

Developing localized climate mitigation strategies needs an understanding of how global consumption drives local carbon dioxide (CO) emissions with a fine spatial resolution. There is no study that provides a spatially explicit mapping of global carbon footprint in China-the world's largest CO emitter-simultaneously considering both international and interprovincial trade. Here we map CO emissions in China driven by global consumption in 2012 at a high spatial resolution (10 km × 10 km) using a detailed, firm-level emission inventory. Our results show that the carbon footprints of foreign regions in China are concentrated in key manufacturing hubs, including the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and North China Plain. Approximately 1% of the land area holds 75% of the global carbon footprint in China. The carbon footprint hotspots in China identified are the key places in which collaborative mitigation efforts between China and downstream parties that drive those emissions.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15883-9DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7206023PMC
May 2020

Incorporating health impacts into a differentiated pollution tax rate system: A case study in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in China.

J Environ Manage 2019 Nov 12;250:109527. Epub 2019 Sep 12.

State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China. Electronic address:

This paper argues for an efficient pollution tax rate system that reflects the differentiation of marginal health damages of the individual emission sources. Although China is the first country in the world to launch a regionally differentiated pollution tax rate program, due to the absence of marginal damage estimation, whether this policy is efficient and equitable remains unknown. In this paper, we build an Integrated Assessment Model to measure the marginal damage of SO2, NOx and PM2.5 emitted from 38 coal-fired power plants in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and evaluate the policy performance of tax rate systems with different differentiation magnitudes. Results show that the spatial variations are huge, the range of marginal health damages of coal-fired power plants in the BTH region between the lowest and highest emission source is $2375 to $33245 per ton for SO2, $307 to $4984 per ton for NOx, and $11513 - $163126 per ton for PM2.5. Shifting from the uniform tax rate system to the current partially differentiated tax rate system will increase the total health benefits by 51.6% but with some regions worse-off than the uniform tax rate system. If we incorporate the source-specific variations of marginal health damages into the tax rate system, such a fully differentiated tax rate system will further increase the total health benefits of current partially differentiated tax rate system by 43.1% with every region better-off. Furthermore, even though the policy benefits of both differentiated tax rate systems are much more unequally distributed than uniform tax rates, their impacts on environmental inequalities are better than the uniform tax rate system. Because uniform tax rate systems do not offset the original inequalities of environmental health burdens while differentiated tax rate systems achieve this buy efficiently allocate mitigation targets among regions with different burdens.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109527DOI Listing
November 2019

Cleaner heating choices in northern rural China: Household factors and the dual substitution policy.

J Environ Manage 2019 Nov 23;249:109433. Epub 2019 Aug 23.

Center for Climate Change and Environmental Policy, Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning, Beijing, 100012, China. Electronic address:

Household heating is a major contributor to frequent winter haze in northern China. Transition to cleaner household heating is associated with multiple benefits including improved environmental conditions and health of local residents. This study presents an analysis of data from an indoor survey covering 1030 households in 136 villages of Hebi City in the winter of 2018. The main purpose of this study was to reveal the key factors that affect cleaner heating choices under the national pilot program of the dual substitution policy, which targets the replacement of coal heating with gas and electric heating. The survey showed that electric heating is the most popular heating method, and the adoption of cleaner heating rises with income, and energy and device costs may be the major barriers to adopting cleaner heating. Further, multinomial logit regression was used to investigate the household factors and found that income, heating area, energy cost, and education had significant impacts on heating choices. In addition, the gas substitution policy was more effective in promoting the cleaner heating transition than was the electric substitution policy. Results show that more freedom to choose energies and devices, as well as infrastructure for gas supply and centralized heating, is also vital for the adoption of cleaner heating. Our study provides new insights to improve the details of implementation of the dual substitution policy.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109433DOI Listing
November 2019

CO emissions patterns of 26 cities in the Yangtze River Delta in 2015: Evidence and implications.

Environ Pollut 2019 Sep 28;252(Pt B):1678-1686. Epub 2019 Jun 28.

School of Climate Change and Adaptation, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, C1A 4P3, Canada.

As a country with the highest CO emissions and at the turning point of socio-economic transition, China's effort to reduce CO emissions will be crucial for climate change mitigation. Yet, due to geospatial variations of CO emissions in different cities, it is important to develop city-specific policies and tools to help control and reduce CO emissions. The key question is how to identify and quantify these variations so as to provide reference for the formulation of the corresponding mitigation policies. This paper attempts to answer this question through a case study of 26 cities in the Yangtze River Delta. The CO emissions pattern of each city is measured by two statistics: Gini coefficient to describe its quantitative pattern and Global Moran's I index to capture its spatial pattern. It is found that Gini coefficients in all these cities are all greater than 0.94, implying a highly polarized pattern in terms of quantity; and the maximum value for Global Moran's I index is 0.071 with a standard deviation of 0.021, indicating a weak spatial clustering trend but strong difference among these cities. So, it would be more efficient for these cities at current stage to reduce CO emissions by focusing on the large emission sources at certain small localities, particularly the very built-up areas rather than covering all the emission sources on every plot of the urban prefectures. And by a combination of these two metrics, the 26 cities are regrouped into nine types with most of them are subject to type HL and ML. These reclassification results then can serve as reference for customizing mitigation policies accordingly and positioning these policies in a more accurate way in each city.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2019.06.102DOI Listing
September 2019

CH mitigation potentials from China landfills and related environmental co-benefits.

Sci Adv 2018 07 4;4(7):eaar8400. Epub 2018 Jul 4.

Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China.

China's CH emissions from 1955 existing (old) and 495 planned (new) landfills are estimated and projected by adopting a bottom-up method, targeting a 2012 baseline year and a 2030 projected target year. Nine key CH mitigation measures are proposed for the CH mitigation assessment from landfills. Approximately 0.66 million metric tons (Mt) of CH and 1.14 Mt of CH will be released, respectively, from new and existing landfills under a 2030 business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, which is 23.5% lower than a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimation. It is estimated that 0.60 and 0.97 Mt of CH can be reduced under new policies (NP) and low-carbon (LC) policy scenarios, respectively. The combined biocover and landfill gas collection and flaring system is the most promising mitigation measure, while mechanical biological treatment and mineral landfill also contribute substantially to CH reduction. The odor-affected population under NP and LC scenarios will decrease by 39.5 and 64.2%, respectively, when compared to the 2030 BAU scenario. The LC scenario is a recommended policy for meeting China's nationally determined contribution targets and reducing the not-in-my-backyard impact due to this policy's significant reduction of CH emissions.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aar8400DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6031376PMC
July 2018

Hourly disaggregation of industrial CO emissions from Shenzhen, China.

Environ Pollut 2018 May;236:396-404

Shenzhen Graduate School, Peking University, Shenzhen, Guangdong 518071, China. Electronic address:

Shenzhen's total industrial CO emission was calculated using the IPCC recommended bottom-up approach and data obtained from the China High Resolution Emission Gridded Data (CHRED). Monthly product yield was then used as the proxy to disaggregate a facility's total emission into monthly emissions. Since a thermal power unit's emission changes with daily and hourly power loads, typical power load curves were used as the proxy to disaggregate the monthly emissions on a daily and hourly basis. The daily and hourly emissions of other facilities were calculated according to two specially designed models: the "weekdays + Spring Festival holidays" model for February and the "weekdays + weekends" model for non-February months. The uncertainty ranges associated with the process of the total amount calculation, monthly disaggregation, daily disaggregation and hourly disaggregation were quantitatively estimated. The total combined uncertainty of the hourly disaggregation of "weekdays + weekends" mode was ±26.19%, and that of the "weekdays + Spring Festival holidays" mode was ±33.06%. These temporal-disaggregation methods and uncertainty estimate approaches could also be used for the industrial air pollutant emission inventory and easily reproduced in the whole country.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2018.01.090DOI Listing
May 2018

Source data supported high resolution carbon emissions inventory for urban areas of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region: Spatial patterns, decomposition and policy implications.

J Environ Manage 2018 Jan 22;206:786-799. Epub 2017 Nov 22.

LREIS, Institute of Geographic Sciences & Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China. Electronic address:

This paper developed internationally compatible methods for delineating boundaries of urban areas in China. By integrating emission source data with existing official statistics as well as using rescaling methodology of data mapping for 1 km grid, the authors constructed high resolution emission gridded data in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji) region in China for 2012. Comparisons between urban and non-urban areas of carbon emissions from industry, agriculture, household and transport exhibited regional disparities as well as sectoral differences. Except for the Hebei province, per capita total direct carbon emissions from urban extents in Beijing and Tianjin were both lower than provincial averages, indicating the climate benefit of urbanization, comparable to results from developed countries. Urban extents in the Hebei province were mainly industrial centers while those in Beijing and Tianjin were more service oriented. Further decomposition analysis revealed population to be a common major driver for increased carbon emissions but climate implications of urban design, economic productivity of land use, and carbon intensity of GDP were both cluster- and sector-specific. This study disapproves the one-size-fits-all solution for carbon mitigation but calls for down-scaled analysis of carbon emissions and formulation of localized carbon reduction strategies in the Jing-Jin-Ji as well as other regions in China.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.11.038DOI Listing
January 2018

Environmental concern-based site screening of carbon dioxide geological storage in China.

Sci Rep 2017 08 8;7(1):7598. Epub 2017 Aug 8.

State Key Laboratory of Geomechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430071, China.

Environmental impacts and risks related to carbon dioxide (CO) capture and storage (CCS) projects may have direct effects on the decision-making process during CCS site selection. This paper proposes a novel method of environmental optimization for CCS site selection using China's ecological red line approach. Moreover, this paper established a GIS based spatial analysis model of environmental optimization during CCS site selection by a large database. The comprehensive data coverage of environmental elements and fine 1 km spatial resolution were used in the database. The quartile method was used for value assignment for specific indicators including the prohibited index and restricted index. The screening results show that areas classified as having high environmental suitability (classes III and IV) in China account for 620,800 km and 156,600 km, respectively, and are mainly distributed in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai and Xinjiang. The environmental suitability class IV areas of Bayingol Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture, Hotan Prefecture, Aksu Prefecture, Hulunbuir, Xilingol League and other prefecture-level regions not only cover large land areas, but also form a continuous area in the three provincial-level administrative units. This study may benefit the national macro-strategic deployment and implementation of CCS spatial layout and environmental management in China.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-07881-7DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5548788PMC
August 2017

Evaluating the impact of odors from the 1955 landfills in China using a bottom-up approach.

J Environ Manage 2015 Dec 19;164:206-14. Epub 2015 Sep 19.

School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.

Landfill odors have created a major concern for the Chinese public. Based on the combination of a first order decay (FOD) model and a ground-level point source Gaussian dispersion model, the impacts from odors emitted from the 1955 landfills in China are evaluated in this paper. Our bottom-up approach uses basic data related to each landfill to achieve a more accurate and comprehensive understanding of impact of landfill odors. Results reveal that the average radius of impact of landfill odors in China is 796 m, while most landfills (46.85%) are within the range of 400-1000 m, in line with the results from previous studies. The total land area impacted by odors has reached 837,476 ha, accounting for 0.09% of China's land territory. Guangdong and Sichuan provinces have the largest land areas impacted by odors, while Tibet Autonomous Region and Tianjin Municipality have the smallest. According to the CALPUFF (California Puff) model and an analysis of social big data, the overall uncertainty of our calculation of the range of odor impacts is roughly -32.88% to 32.67%. This type of study is essential for gaining an accurate and detailed estimation of the affected human population and will prove valuable for addressing the current Not In My Back Yard (NIMBY) challenge in China.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.09.009DOI Listing
December 2015

High resolution carbon dioxide emission gridded data for China derived from point sources.

Environ Sci Technol 2014 Jun 5;48(12):7085-93. Epub 2014 Jun 5.

The Center for Climate Change and Environmental Policy, Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning , 8 Dayangfang, Beiyuan Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100012, China.

A high spatial resolution carbon dioxide (CO2) emission map of China is proving to be essential for China's carbon cycle research and carbon reduction strategies given the current low quality of CO2 emission data and the inconsistencies in data quality between different regions. Ten km resolution CO2 emission gridded data has been built up for China based on point emission sources and other supporting data. The predominance of emissions from industrial point sources (84% of total emissions) in China supports the use of bottom-up methodology. The resultant emission map is informative and proved to be more spatially accurate than the EDGAR data. Spatial distribution of CO2 emissions in China is highly unbalanced and has positive spatial autocorrelation. The spatial pattern is mainly influenced by key cities and key regions, i.e., the Jing-Jin-Ji region, the Yangtze River delta region, and the Pearl River delta region. The emission map indicated that the supervision of 1% of total land could enable the management of about 70% of emissions in China.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es405369rDOI Listing
June 2014