Publications by authors named "Beth Shepherd"

2 Publications

  • Page 1 of 1

LACE index predicts age-specific unplanned readmissions and mortality after hospital discharge.

Aging Clin Exp Res 2021 Apr 5;33(4):1041-1048. Epub 2020 Jun 5.

Department of Endocrinology, Ashford and St Peter's Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Guildford Road, Chertsey, KT16 0PZ, Surrey, UK.

Background: The LACE index scoring tool (Length of stay, Acuity of admission, Co-morbidities and Emergency department visits) has been designed to predict hospital readmissions. We evaluated the ability of the LACE index to predict age-specific frequent admissions and mortality.

Methods: Analysis of prospectively collected data of alive-discharge episodes between 01/04/2017 and 31/03/2019 in an NHS hospital. Data on 14,878 men and 17,392 women of mean age 64.0 years, SD = 20.5, range 18.0-106.7 years were analysed. The association of the LACE index with frequency of all-cause readmissions within 28 days of discharge and over a 2-year period, and with all-cause mortality within 30 days or within 6 months after discharge from hospital were evaluated.

Results: Within LACE index scores of 0-4, 5-9 or ≥ 10, the proportions of readmission ≥ 2 times within 28 days of discharge were 0.1, 1.3 and 9.2% (χ = 3070, p < 0.001) and over a 2-year period were 1.7, 4.8 and 19.1% (χ = 3364, p < 0.001). Compared with a LACE index score of 0-4, a score ≥ 10 increased the risk (adjusted for age, sex and frequency of admissions) of death within 6 months of discharge by 6.8-fold (5.1-9.0, p < 0.001) among all ages, and most strongly in youngest individuals (18.0-49.9 years): adjusted odds ratio = 16.1 (5.7-45.8, p < 0.001). For those aged 50-59.9, 60-69.9, 70-79.9 and ≥ 80 years, odds ratios reduced progressively to 9.6, 7.7, 5.1 and 2.3, respectively. Similar patterns were observed for the association of LACE index with mortality within 30 days of hospital discharge.

Conclusions: The LACE index predicts short-term and long-term frequent admissions and short-term and medium-term mortality, most pronounced among younger individuals, after hospital discharge.
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April 2021

Percutaneous cryoablation of renal tumours: outcomes from 171 tumours in 147 patients.

BJU Int 2013 Oct 12;112(6):758-65. Epub 2013 Apr 12.

Department of Radiology, University Hospitals of Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, Southampton, UK.

Objective: To evaluate the technical and oncological efficacy of an image-guided cryoablation programme for renal tumours.

Patients And Methods: A prospective analysis of technical and radiological outcomes was undertaken after treatment of 171 consecutive tumours in 147 patients. Oncological efficacy in a subset of 125 tumours in 104 patients with >6 months' radiological follow-up and a further subset of 62 patients with solitary, biopsy-proven renal carcinoma was also analysed. Factors influencing technical success, as determined by imaging follow-up, and complication rates were statistically analysed using a statistics software package and logistic regression analyses.

Results: No variables were found to predict subtotal treatment, although gender (P = 0.08), tumour size of >4 cm (P = 0.09) and central location of tumour (P = 0.07) approached significance. Upper pole location was the single variable that was found to predict complications (P = 0.006). Among the 104 patients (125 tumours), radiologically assessed at ≥6 months and with a mean radiological follow-up of 20.1 months, we found a single case of unexpected late local recurrence.

Conclusion: Percutaneous image-guided cryoablation, at a mean of 20.1 months' follow-up, appears to provide a safe and effective treatment option with a low complication rate. Anteriorly sited tumours should not be considered a contraindication for percutaneous image-guided cryoablation.
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October 2013