Publications by authors named "Bemnet Amare Tedla"

3 Publications

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Global Burden of Hypertension and Systolic Blood Pressure of at Least 110 to 115 mm Hg, 1990-2015.

JAMA 2017 01;317(2):165-182

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle.

Importance: Elevated systolic blood (SBP) pressure is a leading global health risk. Quantifying the levels of SBP is important to guide prevention policies and interventions.

Objective: To estimate the association between SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher and the burden of different causes of death and disability by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015.

Design: A comparative risk assessment of health loss related to SBP. Estimated distribution of SBP was based on 844 studies from 154 countries (published 1980-2015) of 8.69 million participants. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression was used to generate estimates of mean SBP and adjusted variance for each age, sex, country, and year. Diseases with sufficient evidence for a causal relationship with high SBP (eg, ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke) were included in the primary analysis.

Main Outcomes And Measures: Mean SBP level, cause-specific deaths, and health burden related to SBP (≥110-115 mm Hg and also ≥140 mm Hg) by age, sex, country, and year.

Results: Between 1990-2015, the rate of SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 73 119 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 67 949-78 241) to 81 373 (95% UI, 76 814-85 770) per 100 000, and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher increased from 17 307 (95% UI, 17 117-17 492) to 20 526 (95% UI, 20 283-20 746) per 100 000. The estimated annual death rate per 100 000 associated with SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 135.6 (95% UI, 122.4-148.1) to 145.2 (95% UI 130.3-159.9) and the rate for SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher increased from 97.9 (95% UI, 87.5-108.1) to 106.3 (95% UI, 94.6-118.1). For loss of DALYs associated with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher, the loss increased from 95.9 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 87.0-104.9 million) to 143.0 million (95% UI, 130.2-157.0 million) [corrected], and for SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher, the loss increased from 5.2 million (95% UI, 4.6-5.7 million) to 7.8 million (95% UI, 7.0-8.7 million). The largest numbers of SBP-related deaths were caused by ischemic heart disease (4.9 million [95% UI, 4.0-5.7 million]; 54.5%), hemorrhagic stroke (2.0 million [95% UI, 1.6-2.3 million]; 58.3%), and ischemic stroke (1.5 million [95% UI, 1.2-1.8 million]; 50.0%). In 2015, China, India, Russia, Indonesia, and the United States accounted for more than half of the global DALYs related to SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg.

Conclusions And Relevance: In international surveys, although there is uncertainty in some estimates, the rate of elevated SBP (≥110-115 and ≥140 mm Hg) increased substantially between 1990 and 2015, and DALYs and deaths associated with elevated SBP also increased. Projections based on this sample suggest that in 2015, an estimated 3.5 billion adults had SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and 874 million adults had SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jama.2016.19043DOI Listing
January 2017

Burden of Diarrhea in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2013: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

Authors:
Ibrahim Khalil Danny V Colombara Mohammad Hossein Forouzanfar Christopher Troeger Farah Daoud Maziar Moradi-Lakeh Charbel El Bcheraoui Puja C Rao Ashkan Afshin Raghid Charara Kalkidan Hassen Abate Mohammed Magdy Abd El Razek Foad Abd-Allah Remon Abu-Elyazeed Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri Ali Shafqat Akanda Nadia Akseer Khurshid Alam Deena Alasfoor Raghib Ali Mohammad A AlMazroa Mahmoud A Alomari Rajaa Mohammad Salem Al-Raddadi Ubai Alsharif Shirina Alsowaidi Khalid A Altirkawi Nelson Alvis-Guzman Walid Ammar Carl Abelardo T Antonio Hamid Asayesh Rana Jawad Asghar Suleman Atique Ashish Awasthi Umar Bacha Alaa Badawi Aleksandra Barac Neeraj Bedi Tolesa Bekele Isabela M Bensenor Balem Demtsu Betsu Zulfiqar Bhutta Aref A Bin Abdulhak Zahid A Butt Hadi Danawi Manisha Dubey Aman Yesuf Endries Imad D A Faghmous Talha Farid Maryam S Farvid Farshad Farzadfar Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad Florian Fischer Joseph Robert Anderson Fitchett Katherine B Gibney Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed Ginawi Melkamu Dedefo Gishu Harish Chander Gugnani Rahul Gupta Gessessew Bugssa Hailu Randah Ribhi Hamadeh Samer Hamidi Hilda L Harb Mohammad T Hedayati Mohamed Hsairi Abdullatif Husseini Nader Jahanmehr Mehdi Javanbakht Tariku Jibat Jost B Jonas Amir Kasaeian Yousef Saleh Khader Abdur Rahman Khan Ejaz Ahmad Khan Gulfaraz Khan Tawfik Ahmed Muthafer Khoja Yohannes Kinfu Niranjan Kissoon Ai Koyanagi Aparna Lal Asma Abdul Abdul Latif Raimundas Lunevicius Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek Azeem Majeed Reza Malekzadeh Alem Mehari Alemayehu B Mekonnen Yohannes Adama Melaku Ziad A Memish Walter Mendoza Awoke Misganaw Layla Abdalla Ibrahim Mohamed Jean B Nachega Quyen Le Nguyen Muhammad Imran Nisar Emmanuel Kwame Peprah James A Platts-Mills Farshad Pourmalek Mostafa Qorbani Anwar Rafay Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar Sajjad Ur Rahman Rajesh Kumar Rai Saleem M Rana Chhabi L Ranabhat Sowmya R Rao Amany H Refaat Mark Riddle Gholamreza Roshandel George Mugambage Ruhago Muhammad Muhammad Saleh Juan R Sanabria Monika Sawhney Sadaf G Sepanlou Tesfaye Setegn Karen Sliwa Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy Bryan L Sykes Mohammad Tavakkoli Bemnet Amare Tedla Abdullah S Terkawi Kingsley Ukwaja Olalekan A Uthman Ronny Westerman Mamo Wubshet Muluken A Yenesew Naohiro Yonemoto Mustafa Z Younis Zoubida Zaidi Maysaa El Sayed Zaki Abdullah A Al Rabeeah Haidong Wang Mohsen Naghavi Theo Vos Alan D Lopez Christopher J L Murray Ali H Mokdad

Am J Trop Med Hyg 2016 Dec 10;95(6):1319-1329. Epub 2016 Oct 10.

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.

Diarrheal diseases (DD) are leading causes of disease burden, death, and disability, especially in children in low-income settings. DD can also impact a child's potential livelihood through stunted physical growth, cognitive impairment, and other sequelae. As part of the Global Burden of Disease Study, we estimated DD burden, and the burden attributable to specific risk factors and particular etiologies, in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) between 1990 and 2013. For both sexes and all ages, we calculated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which are the sum of years of life lost and years lived with disability. We estimate that over 125,000 deaths (3.6% of total deaths) were due to DD in the EMR in 2013, with a greater burden of DD in low- and middle-income countries. Diarrhea deaths per 100,000 children under 5 years of age ranged from one (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = 0-1) in Bahrain and Oman to 471 (95% UI = 245-763) in Somalia. The pattern for diarrhea DALYs among those under 5 years of age closely followed that for diarrheal deaths. DALYs per 100,000 ranged from 739 (95% UI = 520-989) in Syria to 40,869 (95% UI = 21,540-65,823) in Somalia. Our results highlighted a highly inequitable burden of DD in EMR, mainly driven by the lack of access to proper resources such as water and sanitation. Our findings will guide preventive and treatment interventions which are based on evidence and which follow the ultimate goal of reducing the DD burden.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.16-0339DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5154365PMC
December 2016

Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-years for 32 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2015: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study.

Authors:
Christina Fitzmaurice Christine Allen Ryan M Barber Lars Barregard Zulfiqar A Bhutta Hermann Brenner Daniel J Dicker Odgerel Chimed-Orchir Rakhi Dandona Lalit Dandona Tom Fleming Mohammad H Forouzanfar Jamie Hancock Roderick J Hay Rachel Hunter-Merrill Chantal Huynh H Dean Hosgood Catherine O Johnson Jost B Jonas Jagdish Khubchandani G Anil Kumar Michael Kutz Qing Lan Heidi J Larson Xiaofeng Liang Stephen S Lim Alan D Lopez Michael F MacIntyre Laurie Marczak Neal Marquez Ali H Mokdad Christine Pinho Farshad Pourmalek Joshua A Salomon Juan Ramon Sanabria Logan Sandar Benn Sartorius Stephen M Schwartz Katya A Shackelford Kenji Shibuya Jeff Stanaway Caitlyn Steiner Jiandong Sun Ken Takahashi Stein Emil Vollset Theo Vos Joseph A Wagner Haidong Wang Ronny Westerman Hajo Zeeb Leo Zoeckler Foad Abd-Allah Muktar Beshir Ahmed Samer Alabed Noore K Alam Saleh Fahed Aldhahri Girma Alem Mulubirhan Assefa Alemayohu Raghib Ali Rajaa Al-Raddadi Azmeraw Amare Yaw Amoako Al Artaman Hamid Asayesh Niguse Atnafu Ashish Awasthi Huda Ba Saleem Aleksandra Barac Neeraj Bedi Isabela Bensenor Adugnaw Berhane Eduardo Bernabé Balem Betsu Agnes Binagwaho Dube Boneya Ismael Campos-Nonato Carlos Castañeda-Orjuela Ferrán Catalá-López Peggy Chiang Chioma Chibueze Abdulaal Chitheer Jee-Young Choi Benjamin Cowie Solomon Damtew José das Neves Suhojit Dey Samath Dharmaratne Preet Dhillon Eric Ding Tim Driscoll Donatus Ekwueme Aman Yesuf Endries Maryam Farvid Farshad Farzadfar Joao Fernandes Florian Fischer Tsegaye Tewelde G/Hiwot Alemseged Gebru Sameer Gopalani Alemayehu Hailu Masako Horino Nobuyuki Horita Abdullatif Husseini Inge Huybrechts Manami Inoue Farhad Islami Mihajlo Jakovljevic Spencer James Mehdi Javanbakht Sun Ha Jee Amir Kasaeian Muktar Sano Kedir Yousef S Khader Young-Ho Khang Daniel Kim James Leigh Shai Linn Raimundas Lunevicius Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek Reza Malekzadeh Deborah Carvalho Malta Wagner Marcenes Desalegn Markos Yohannes A Melaku Kidanu G Meles Walter Mendoza Desalegn Tadese Mengiste Tuomo J Meretoja Ted R Miller Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad Alireza Mohammadi Shafiu Mohammed Maziar Moradi-Lakeh Gabriele Nagel Devina Nand Quyen Le Nguyen Sandra Nolte Felix A Ogbo Kelechi E Oladimeji Eyal Oren Mahesh Pa Eun-Kee Park David M Pereira Dietrich Plass Mostafa Qorbani Amir Radfar Anwar Rafay Mahfuzar Rahman Saleem M Rana Kjetil Søreide Maheswar Satpathy Monika Sawhney Sadaf G Sepanlou Masood Ali Shaikh Jun She Ivy Shiue Hirbo Roba Shore Mark G Shrime Samuel So Samir Soneji Vasiliki Stathopoulou Konstantinos Stroumpoulis Muawiyyah Babale Sufiyan Bryan L Sykes Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos Fentaw Tadese Bemnet Amare Tedla Gizachew Assefa Tessema J S Thakur Bach Xuan Tran Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja Benjamin S Chudi Uzochukwu Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov Elisabete Weiderpass Mamo Wubshet Terefe Henock Gebremedhin Yebyo Hassen Hamid Yimam Naohiro Yonemoto Mustafa Z Younis Chuanhua Yu Zoubida Zaidi Maysaa El Sayed Zaki Zerihun Menlkalew Zenebe Christopher J L Murray Mohsen Naghavi

JAMA Oncol 2017 Apr;3(4):524-548

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle.

Importance: Cancer is the second leading cause of death worldwide. Current estimates on the burden of cancer are needed for cancer control planning.

Objective: To estimate mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 32 cancers in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015.

Evidence Review: Cancer mortality was estimated using vital registration system data, cancer registry incidence data (transformed to mortality estimates using separately estimated mortality to incidence [MI] ratios), and verbal autopsy data. Cancer incidence was calculated by dividing mortality estimates through the modeled MI ratios. To calculate cancer prevalence, MI ratios were used to model survival. To calculate YLDs, prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights. The YLLs were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the reference life expectancy. DALYs were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Countries were categorized by SDI quintiles to summarize results.

Findings: In 2015, there were 17.5 million cancer cases worldwide and 8.7 million deaths. Between 2005 and 2015, cancer cases increased by 33%, with population aging contributing 16%, population growth 13%, and changes in age-specific rates contributing 4%. For men, the most common cancer globally was prostate cancer (1.6 million cases). Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer was the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs in men (1.2 million deaths and 25.9 million DALYs). For women, the most common cancer was breast cancer (2.4 million cases). Breast cancer was also the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs for women (523 000 deaths and 15.1 million DALYs). Overall, cancer caused 208.3 million DALYs worldwide in 2015 for both sexes combined. Between 2005 and 2015, age-standardized incidence rates for all cancers combined increased in 174 of 195 countries or territories. Age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) for all cancers combined decreased within that timeframe in 140 of 195 countries or territories. Countries with an increase in the ASDR due to all cancers were largely located on the African continent. Of all cancers, deaths between 2005 and 2015 decreased significantly for Hodgkin lymphoma (-6.1% [95% uncertainty interval (UI), -10.6% to -1.3%]). The number of deaths also decreased for esophageal cancer, stomach cancer, and chronic myeloid leukemia, although these results were not statistically significant.

Conclusion And Relevance: As part of the epidemiological transition, cancer incidence is expected to increase in the future, further straining limited health care resources. Appropriate allocation of resources for cancer prevention, early diagnosis, and curative and palliative care requires detailed knowledge of the local burden of cancer. The GBD 2015 study results demonstrate that progress is possible in the war against cancer. However, the major findings also highlight an unmet need for cancer prevention efforts, including tobacco control, vaccination, and the promotion of physical activity and a healthy diet.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jamaoncol.2016.5688DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6103527PMC
April 2017