Publications by authors named "Ali Mokdad"

468 Publications

Burden of multiple sclerosis in Iran from 1990 to 2017.

BMC Neurol 2021 Oct 15;21(1):400. Epub 2021 Oct 15.

Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Background: Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a burdensome, chronic and autoimmune disease of the central nervous system. We aimed to report the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) of MS in Iran at a national level for different age and sex groups over a period of 28 years (1990-2017).

Methods: Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) from 1990 to 2017, published by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. The incidence of DALYs and prevalence of MS were estimated to report the burden of MS based on sex and age in Iran from 1990 to 2017.

Results: At the national level, the Age-Standardized Incidence Rate (ASIR), Age-Standardized Prevalence Rate (ASPR), Age-Standardized DALYs Rate (ASDR) and the Age-Standardized Mortality Rate (ASMR) in Iran in 2017 were 2.4 (95% Uncertainty Interval [UI]: 2.1 to 2.7), 69.5 (62.1 to 77.8), 29.1 (23.6 to 34.7), and 0.4 (0.3 to 0.4) per 100,000 population, respectively. During the period of 1990 to 2017, all measures increased, and were higher among females. The incidence rate began upward trend at the age of 20 and attained its highest level at the age of 25.

Conclusion: In Iran, all of the age-standardized MS rates have been increasing during the 28 years from 1990 to 2017. Our findings can help policy makers and health planners to design and communicate their plans and to have a better resource allocation, depending on the incidence and prevalence of the growing numbers of MS patients in Iran.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12883-021-02431-1DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8518301PMC
October 2021

Changes in body mass index, obesity, and overweight in Southern Africa development countries, 1990 to 2019: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study.

Obes Sci Pract 2021 Oct 13;7(5):509-524. Epub 2021 May 13.

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation University of Washington Seattle WA USA.

Background: High body mass index (BMI) is associated with stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). An epidemiological analysis of the prevalence of high BMI, stroke, IHD, and T2DM was conducted for 16 Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) using Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study data.

Methods: GBD obtained data from vital registration, verbal autopsy, and ICD codes. Prevalence of high BMI (≥25 kg/m), stroke, IHD, and T2DM attributed to high BMI were calculated. Cause of Death Ensemble Model and Spatiotemporal Gaussian regression was used to estimate mortality due to stroke, IHD, and T2DM attributable to high BMI.

Results: Obesity in adult females increased 1.54-fold from 12.0% (uncertainty interval [UI]: 11.5-12.4) to 18.5% (17.9-19.0), whereas in adult males, obesity nearly doubled from 4.5 (4.3-4.8) to 8.8 (8.5-9.2). In children, obesity more than doubled in both sexes, and overweight increased by 27.4% in girls and by 37.4% in boys. Mean BMI increased by 0.7 from 22.4 (21.6-23.1) to 23.1 (22.3-24.0) in adult males, and by 1.0 from 23.8 (22.9-24.7) to 24.8 (23.8-25.8) in adult females. South Africa 44.7 (42.5-46.8), Swaziland 33.9 (31.7-36.0) and Lesotho 31.6 (29.8-33.5) had the highest prevalence of obesity in 2019. The corresponding prevalence in males for the three countries were 19.1 (17.5-20.7), 19.3 (17.7-20.8), and 9.2 (8.4-10.1), respectively. The DRC and Madagascar had the least prevalence of adult obesity, from 5.6 (4.8-6.4) and 7.0 (6.1-7.9), respectively in females in 2019, and in males from 4.9 (4.3-5.4) in the DRC to 3.9 (3.4-4.4) in Madagascar.

Conclusions: The prevalence of high BMI is high in SADC. Obesity more than doubled in adults and nearly doubled in children. The 2019 mean BMI for adult females in seven countries exceeded 25 kg/m. SADC countries are unlikely to meet UN2030 SDG targets. Prevalence of high BMI should be studied locally to help reduce morbidity.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/osp4.519DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8488455PMC
October 2021

Update on SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence - Regional and worldwide.

Clin Microbiol Infect 2021 Sep 25. Epub 2021 Sep 25.

Department of Veterinary Biosciences, Melbourne Veterinary School, Faculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia. Electronic address:

Background: With limited vaccine supplies, an informed position on the status of SARS-CoV-2 infection in people can assist the prioritization of vaccine deployment.

Objective: Here, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the global and regional SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalences around the world.

Data Sources: We systematically searched peer-reviewed databases (PubMed, Embase, and Scopus), and preprint servers (medRxiv, bioRxiv, and SSRN) for articles published between 1 January 2020 and 30 March 2021.

Study Eligibility Criteria: Population-based studies reporting the SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in the general population were included.

Participants: People of different age groups, occupations, educational levels, ethnic backgrounds and socio-economic status from the general population.

Interventions: There were no interventions.

Methods: We used the random-effects meta-analyses and empirical Bayesian method to estimate the pooled seroprevalence and conducted subgroup and meta-regression analyses to explore potential sources of heterogeneity as well as the relationship between seroprevalence and socio-demographics.

Results: We identified 241 eligible studies involving 6.3 million individuals from 60 countries. The global pooled seroprevalence was 9.47% (95% CI, 8.99%-9.95%), although the heterogeneity among studies was significant (I = 99.9%). We estimated that ∼738 million people had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 (as of December 2020). Highest and lowest seroprevalences were recorded in Central & Southern Asia (22.91%, 19.11-26.72%) and Eastern & South-eastern Asia (1.62%, 1.31-1.95%), respectively. Seroprevalence estimates were higher in males, persons aged 20-50 years, in minority ethnic groups living in countries or regions with low income and human development indices.

Conclusion: The present study indicates that the majority of the world's human population was still highly susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection in mid 2021, emphasizing the need for vaccine deployment to vulnerable groups of people, particularly in developing countries, and for the implementation of enhanced preventive measures until 'herd immunity' to SARS-CoV-2 has developed.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cmi.2021.09.019DOI Listing
September 2021

A Generation at Risk: The Impacts of Lebanon's Escalating Humanitarian Crisis on Children.

Front Public Health 2021;9:704678. Epub 2021 Aug 16.

Faculty of Health Sciences, American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon.

Lebanon is in the midst of a rapidly escalating, unprecedented humanitarian crisis that is plunging the country deep into poverty and threatens population well-being, economic development, social welfare and national and regional stability. The dire situation is due to the compounding effects of the August 2020 Beirut blast, massive economic collapse and the COVID-19 pandemic, in a setting of longstanding entrenched political corruption and a dysfunctional, mismanaged crisis response by the state. This current emergency occurs on the background of a turbulent history and complex regional geopolitical context - including the Syrian refugee crisis, the ongoing influence of foreign actors and their local proxies, the United-States-imposed sanctions, endemic corruption, a culture of nepotism and entitlement among the political dynasties, dysfunctional power-sharing and deep-seated sectarian divides. With over half the population now living in poverty, a generation of children are among those at risk. This Perspective provides a brief overview of Lebanon's current complex humanitarian crisis, discusses the impacts of the evolving situation on youth and proposes a suite of recommendations to mitigate the effects.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.704678DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8415263PMC
September 2021

US Health Care Spending by Race and Ethnicity, 2002-2016.

JAMA 2021 08;326(7):649-659

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington.

Importance: Measuring health care spending by race and ethnicity is important for understanding patterns in utilization and treatment.

Objective: To estimate, identify, and account for differences in health care spending by race and ethnicity from 2002 through 2016 in the US.

Design, Setting, And Participants: This exploratory study included data from 7.3 million health system visits, admissions, or prescriptions captured in the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (2002-2016) and the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (2002-2012), which were combined with the insured population and notified case estimates from the National Health Interview Survey (2002; 2016) and health care spending estimates from the Disease Expenditure project (1996-2016).

Exposure: Six mutually exclusive self-reported race and ethnicity groups.

Main Outcomes And Measures: Total and age-standardized health care spending per person by race and ethnicity for each year from 2002 through 2016 by type of care. Health care spending per notified case by race and ethnicity for key diseases in 2016. Differences in health care spending across race and ethnicity groups were decomposed into differences in utilization rate vs differences in price and intensity of care.

Results: In 2016, an estimated $2.4 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI], $2.4 trillion-$2.4 trillion) was spent on health care across the 6 types of care included in this study. The estimated age-standardized total health care spending per person in 2016 was $7649 (95% UI, $6129-$8814) for American Indian and Alaska Native (non-Hispanic) individuals; $4692 (95% UI, $4068-$5202) for Asian, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander (non-Hispanic) individuals; $7361 (95% UI, $6917-$7797) for Black (non-Hispanic) individuals; $6025 (95% UI, $5703-$6373) for Hispanic individuals; $9276 (95% UI, $8066-$10 601) for individuals categorized as multiple races (non-Hispanic); and $8141 (95% UI, $8038-$8258) for White (non-Hispanic) individuals, who accounted for an estimated 72% (95% UI, 71%-73%) of health care spending. After adjusting for population size and age, White individuals received an estimated 15% (95% UI, 13%-17%; P < .001) more spending on ambulatory care than the all-population mean. Black (non-Hispanic) individuals received an estimated 26% (95% UI, 19%-32%; P < .001) less spending than the all-population mean on ambulatory care but received 19% (95% UI, 3%-32%; P = .02) more on inpatient and 12% (95% UI, 4%-24%; P = .04) more on emergency department care. Hispanic individuals received an estimated 33% (95% UI, 26%-37%; P < .001) less spending per person on ambulatory care than the all-population mean. Asian, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander (non-Hispanic) individuals received less spending than the all-population mean on all types of care except dental (all P < .001), while American Indian and Alaska Native (non-Hispanic) individuals had more spending on emergency department care than the all-population mean (estimated 90% more; 95% UI, 11%-165%; P = .04), and multiple-race (non-Hispanic) individuals had more spending on emergency department care than the all-population mean (estimated 40% more; 95% UI, 19%-63%; P = .006). All 18 of the statistically significant race and ethnicity spending differences by type of care corresponded with differences in utilization. These differences persisted when controlling for underlying disease burden.

Conclusions And Relevance: In the US from 2002 through 2016, health care spending varied by race and ethnicity across different types of care even after adjusting for age and health conditions. Further research is needed to determine current health care spending by race and ethnicity, including spending related to the COVID-19 pandemic.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.9937DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8371574PMC
August 2021

Post-exercise respirometry underestimates maximum metabolic rate in juvenile salmon.

Conserv Physiol 2020 4;8(1):coaa063. Epub 2020 Aug 4.

Great Lakes Institute for Environmental Research, University of Windsor, Windsor, ON, Canada.

Experimental biologists now routinely quantify maximum metabolic rate (MMR) in fishes using respirometry, often with the goal of calculating aerobic scope and answering important ecological and evolutionary questions. Methods used for estimating MMR vary considerably, with the two most common methods being (i) the 'chase method', where fish are manually chased to exhaustion and immediately sealed into a respirometer for post-exercise measurement of oxygen consumption rate ( ), and (ii) the 'swim tunnel method', whereby is measured while the fish swims at high speed in a swim tunnel respirometer. In this study, we compared estimates for MMR made using a 3-min exhaustive chase (followed by measurement of in a static respirometer) versus those made via maximal swimming in a swim tunnel respirometer. We made a total of 134 estimates of MMR using the two methods with juveniles of two salmonids (Atlantic salmon and Chinook salmon ) across a 6°C temperature range. We found that the chase method underestimated 'true' MMR (based on the swim tunnel method) by 20% in these species. The gap in MMR estimates between the two methods was not significantly affected by temperature (range of . 15-21°C) nor was it affected by body mass (overall range of 53.5-236 g). Our data support some previous studies that have suggested the use of a swim tunnel respirometer generates markedly higher estimates of MMR than does the chase method, at least for species in which a swim tunnel respirometer is viable (e.g. 'athletic' ram ventilating fishes). We recommend that the chase method could be used as a 'proxy' (i.e. with a correction factor) for MMR in future studies if supported by a species-specific calibration with a relevant range of temperatures, body sizes or other covariates of interest.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/conphys/coaa063DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7399229PMC
August 2020

U.S. Children "Learning Online" during COVID-19 without the Internet or a Computer: Visualizing the Gradient by Race/Ethnicity and Parental Educational Attainment.

Socius 2021 17;7:2378023121992607. Epub 2021 Feb 17.

University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.

The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has caused unprecedented disruptions to education in the United States, with a large proportion of schooling moving to online formats, which has the potential to exacerbate existing racial/ethnic and socioeconomic disparities in learning. The authors visualize access to online learning technologies using data from the Household Pulse Survey from the early fall 2020 school period (August 19 to October 26). The authors find that 10.1 percent of children participating in online learning nationally did not have adequate access to the Internet and a computer. Rates of inadequate access varied nearly 20-fold across the gradient of parental race/ethnicity and education, from 1.9 percent for children of Asian parents with graduate degrees to 35.5 percent among children of Black parents with less than a high school education. These findings indicate alarming gaps in potential learning among U.S. children. Renewed investments in equitable access to distance-learning resources will be necessary to prevent widening racial/ethnic and class learning disparities.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2378023121992607DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7890417PMC
February 2021

Disparities in utilization of outpatient surgical care among children.

Surgery 2021 Jun 21. Epub 2021 Jun 21.

Department of Surgery, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI. Electronic address:

Background: The purpose of this study was to quantify disparities in the utilization of outpatient pediatric surgical care and to examine the extent to which neighborhood-level socioeconomic disadvantage is associated with access to care among children.

Methods: Clinic "no-shows" were examined among children scheduled from 2017 to 2019 at seven pediatric surgery clinics associated with a tertiary care children's hospital. The association between Area Deprivation Index, a neighborhood-level measure of socioeconomic disadvantage, and other patient factors with clinic no-shows was examined using multivariable logistic regression models. Difficulties in accessing postoperative care in particular were explored in a subgroup analysis of postoperative (within 90 days) clinic visits after appendectomy or inguinal/umbilical hernia repairs.

Results: Among 10,162 patients, 16% had at least 1 no-show for a clinic appointment. Area Deprivation Index (most deprived decile adjusted odds ratio 3.17, 95% confidence interval 2.20-4.58, P < .001), Black race (adjusted odds ratio 3.30, 95% confidence interval 2.70-4.00, P < .001), and public insurance (adjusted odds ratio 2.75, 95% confidence interval 2.38-3.31, P < .001) were associated with having at least 1 no-show. Similar associations were identified among 2,399 children scheduled for postoperative clinic visits after undergoing appendectomy or inguinal/umbilical hernia repair, among whom 20% were a no-show.

Conclusion: Race, insurance type, and neighborhood-level socioeconomic disadvantage are associated with disparities in utilization of outpatient pediatric surgical care. Challenges accessing routine outpatient care among disadvantaged children may be one mechanism through which disparate outcomes result among children requiring surgical care.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.surg.2021.05.045DOI Listing
June 2021

Estimating health care delivery system value for each US state and testing key associations.

Health Serv Res 2021 May 24. Epub 2021 May 24.

Clinical Excellence Research Center, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA.

Objective: To estimate health care systems' value in treating major illnesses for each US state and identify system characteristics associated with value.

Data Sources: Annual condition-specific death and incidence estimates for each US state from the Global Burden Disease 2019 Study and annual health care spending per person for each state from the National Health Expenditure Accounts.

Study Design: Using non-linear meta-stochastic frontier analysis, mortality incidence ratios for 136 major treatable illnesses were regressed separately on per capita health care spending and key covariates such as age, obesity, smoking, and educational attainment. State- and year-specific inefficiency estimates were extracted for each health condition and combined to create a single estimate of health care delivery system value for each US state for each year, 1991-2014. The association between changes in health care value and changes in 23 key health care system characteristics and state policies was measured.

Data Collection/extraction Methods: Not applicable.

Principal Findings: US state with relatively high spending per person or relatively poor health-outcomes were shown to have low health care delivery system value. New Jersey, Maryland, Florida, Arizona, and New York attained the highest value scores in 2014 (81 [95% uncertainty interval 72-88], 80 [72-87], 80 [71-86], 77 [69-84], and 77 [66-85], respectively), after controlling for health care spending, age, obesity, smoking, physical activity, race, and educational attainment. Greater market concentration of hospitals and of insurers were associated with worse health care value (p-value ranging from <0.01 to 0.02). Higher hospital geographic density and use were also associated with worse health care value (p-value ranging from 0.03 to 0.05). Enrollment in Medicare Advantage HMOs was associated with better value, as was more generous Medicaid income eligibility (p-value 0.04 and 0.01).

Conclusions: Substantial variation in the value of health care exists across states. Key health system characteristics such as market concentration and provider density were associated with value.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1475-6773.13676DOI Listing
May 2021

A multidimensional framework for rating health system performance and sustainability: A nine plus one ranking system.

J Glob Health 2021 May 8;11:04025. Epub 2021 May 8.

Institute of Global, Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Geneva, Switzerland.

Background: Health Care provision in terms of prevention, detection and treatment is primarily dependent on the quality of the hosting Health System. In its health report 2000, the WHO's attempt to assess and rank health systems' quality Worldwide was heavily criticized. We propose a novel framework for health system performance and ranking using three indicators for three domains; general health system performance, clinical outcome of treatment applied to the main causes of death and health system sustainability domains.

Methods: Each domain was rated as "A - high", "B - intermediate" or "C - poor" according to the aggregate score values of its three indicators. Hence the highest rank a health system can achieve is "AAA" and the lowest is "CCC". If there is a need to define a "numerical rank" to further differentiate health systems with similar rating from one another, the total health expenditure per capita per year was used as an additional "number 10" indicator to achieve that level of differentiation. The framework was applied to Health Systems serving most of the World population including China, India, Brazil, USA, Russia, Germany, Japan, UK, France, Singapore and Switzerland. Data pertinent to each indicator was captured from published reports in peer-reviewed journals and/or from official websites. A Delphi survey was conducted for data not available online.

Results: Among the 11 health systems tested, no one scored AAA, Switzerland, France, Germany and Japan scored AAB, Singapore scored ABB, UK scored BBB, USA, Russia and China scored BBC, Brazil scored BCC while India scored CCC. Total health expenditure per capita per year lead to ranking Switzerland first followed by France, Germany, and Japan.

Conclusion: This novel ranking system is a practical and an applicable tool that test health system performance and sustainability. It can be utilized to guide all organizations, people and actions whose primary intent is to promote, restore or maintain health to achieve their targets. An International Health System Ranking database that will be hosted by the Institute of Global, Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Geneva, Switzerland.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.7189/jogh.11.04025DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8109277PMC
May 2021

Association of Neighborhood Socioeconomic Disadvantage With Complicated Appendicitis in Children.

J Surg Res 2021 09 4;265:245-251. Epub 2021 May 4.

Department of Surgery, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Electronic address:

Background: Lower socioeconomic status (SES) is linked to poorer outcomes for a variety of health conditions in children, potentially through delay in accessing care. The objective of this study was to measure the association between SES and delay in surgical care as marked by presentation with complicated appendicitis (CA).

Methods: Children treated for acute appendicitis between 2015-2019 at a large academic children's hospital were reviewed. Patient home addresses were used to calculate travel time to the children's hospital and to determine Area Deprivation Index (ADI), a neighborhood-level SES marker. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to compare the likelihood of CA across ADI while adjusting for confounders.

Results: Of 1,697 children with acute appendicitis, 38.8% had CA. Compared to those with uncomplicated disease, children with CA were younger, lived farther from the children's hospital, and were more likely to have Medicaid insurance and have ED visits in the 30 days preceding diagnosis. Children with CA disproportionately came from disadvantaged neighborhoods (P < 0.007), with 32% from the two most disadvantaged ADI deciles. The odds of CA rose 5% per ADI decile-increase (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.05, 95%CI 1.01-1.09, P = 0.02). Younger age and >60-min travel time were also associated with CA. Association between ADI and CA remained among younger (<10 y) children (aOR 1.07, 95%CI 1.00-1.15, P = 0.048) and those living closer (<30 min) to the hospital (aOR 1.06, 95%CI 1.01-1.11, p=0.02).

Conclusions: ADI is associated with CA among children, suggesting ADI may be a valuable marker of difficulty accessing surgical care among disadvantaged children.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jss.2021.03.036DOI Listing
September 2021

Performance of passive case detection for malaria surveillance: results from nine countries in Mesoamerica and the Dominican Republic.

Malar J 2021 Apr 30;20(1):208. Epub 2021 Apr 30.

Regional Malaria Elimination Initiative, Inter-American Development Bank, DC, Washington, USA.

Background: In malaria elimination settings, available metrics for malaria surveillance have been insufficient to measure the performance of passive case detection adequately. An indicator for malaria suspected cases with malaria test (MSCT) is proposed to measure the rate of testing on persons presenting to health facilities who satisfy the definition of a suspected malaria case. This metric does not rely on prior knowledge of fever prevalence, seasonality, or external denominators, and can be used to compare detection rates in suspected cases within and between countries, including across settings with different levels of transmission.

Methods: To compute the MSCT, an operational definition for suspected malaria cases was established, including clinical and epidemiological criteria. In general, suspected cases included: (1) persons with fever detected in areas with active malaria transmission; (2) persons with fever identified in areas with no active transmission and travel history to, or residence in areas with active transmission (either national or international); and (3) persons presenting with fever, chills and sweating from any area. Data was collected from 9 countries: Belize, Colombia (in areas with active transmission), Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama (September-March 2020). A sample of eligible medical records for 2018 was selected from a sample of health facilities in each country. An algorithm was constructed to assess if a malaria test was ordered or performed for cases that met the suspected case definition.

Results: A sample of 5873 suspected malaria cases was obtained from 239 health facilities. Except for Nicaragua and Colombia, malaria tests were requested in less than 10% of all cases. More cases were tested in areas with active transmission than areas without cases. Travel history was not systematically recorded in any country.

Conclusions: A statistically comparable, replicable, and standardized metric was proposed to measure suspected malaria cases with a test (microscopy or rapid diagnostic test) that enables assessing the performance of passive case detection. Cross-country findings have important implications for malaria and infectious disease surveillance, which should be promptly addressed as countries progress towards malaria elimination. Local and easy-to-implement tools could be implemented to assess and improve passive case detection.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12936-021-03645-xDOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8085801PMC
April 2021

Outcomes of gastrostomy placement with and without concomitant tracheostomy among ventilator dependent children.

J Pediatr Surg 2021 Jul 26;56(7):1222-1226. Epub 2021 Mar 26.

Division of Pediatric Surgery, Department of Surgery, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI, USA.

Introduction: Simultaneous gastrostomy tube (GT) and tracheostomy placement in young children offers potential benefit in limiting anesthetic exposure, but it is unknown whether combining these procedures introduces additional morbidity. This study compared outcomes after combined GT and tracheostomy placement versus GT placement alone among similar ventilator-dependent patients.

Methods: Ventilator-dependent children <2-years-old who underwent GT placement alone (MV-GT), simultaneous GT and tracheostomy placement (GT+T), and GT placement alone with a pre-existing tracheostomy (T-GT) were identified using 2012-2018 NSQIP-Pediatric Participant User Files. Multiple logistic regression models were used to compare outcomes while adjusting for other group differences.

Results: Among 1100 children, 351 underwent MV-GT, 494 GT+T, and 255 T-GT. Major complications occurred in 23.6%, 17.0%, and 14.5% of the respective groups (p = 0.01). Major complications with GT+T were similar to T-GT (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]=1.19, 95%CI:0.78-1.83, p = 0.4) and lower than MV-GT (aOR=0.67, 95%CI:0.47-0.95, p = 0.02). Severe complications including mortality, cardiac arrest, and stroke were similar between the three groups (p = 0.8).

Conclusions: Children <2-years-old undergoing GT+T did not experience higher post-operative complications compared to children undergoing T-GT or MV-GT. Utilizing GT+T to limit anesthetic exposure may be reasonable within this high-risk population.

Type Of Study: Treatment Study LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpedsurg.2021.03.028DOI Listing
July 2021

Tumor Biology Impacts Survival in Surgically Managed Primary Hepatic Vascular Malignancies.

J Surg Res 2021 08 12;264:481-489. Epub 2021 Apr 12.

Department of Surgery, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, Texas; North Texas Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Dallas, Texas. Electronic address:

Background: Hepatic angiosarcoma (AS) and hepatic epithelioid hemangioendothelioma (HEHE) are rare primary hepatic vascular malignancies (PHVM) that remain poorly understood. To guide management, we sought to identify factors and trends predicting survival after surgical intervention using a national database.

Materials And Methods: In a retrospective analysis of the National Cancer Database patients with a diagnosis of PHVM were identified. Clinicopathologic factors were extracted and compared. Overall survival (OS) was estimated and predictors of survival were identified.

Results: Three hundred ninty patients with AS and 216 with HEHE were identified. Only 16% of AS and 36% of HEHE patients underwent surgery. The median OS for patients who underwent surgical intervention was 97 months, with 5-year OS of 30% for AS versus 69% for HEHE patients (P< 0.001). Tumor biology strongly impacted OS, with AS histology (Hazard Ratio [HR] of 3.61 [1.55-8.42]), moderate/poor tumor differentiation (HR = 3.86 [1.03-14.46]) and tumor size (HR = 1.01 [1.00-1.01]) conferring worse prognosis. The presence of metastatic disease in the surgically managed cohort (HR = 5.22 [2.01-13.57]) and involved surgical margins (HR = 3.87 [1.59-9.42]), were independently associated with worse survival.

Conclusions: In this national cohort of PHVM, tumor biology, in the form of angiosarcoma histology, tumor differentiation and tumor size, was strongly associated with worse survival after surgery. Additionally, residual tumor burden after resection, in the form of positive surgical margins or the presence of metastasis, was also negatively associated with survival. Long-term clinical outcomes remain poor for patients with the above high-risk features, emphasizing the need to develop effective forms of adjuvant systemic therapies for this group of malignancies.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jss.2021.02.043DOI Listing
August 2021

Beirut explosion aftermath: lessons and guidelines.

Emerg Med J 2021 Mar 9. Epub 2021 Mar 9.

Department of Emergency Medicine, American University of Beirut Medical Center, Beirut, Lebanon.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/emermed-2020-210880DOI Listing
March 2021

Global, regional, and national burden and quality of care index (QCI) of thyroid cancer: A systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2017.

Cancer Med 2021 04 5;10(7):2496-2508. Epub 2021 Mar 5.

Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Clinical Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Background: Thyroid cancer (TC) is the most prevalent malignancy of the endocrine system. Over the past decades, TC incidence rates have been increasing. TC quality of care (QOC) has yet to be well understood. We aimed to assess the quality of TC care and its disparities.

Methods: We retrieved primary epidemiologic indices from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 1990-2017 database. We calculated four secondary indices of mortality to incidence ratio, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to prevalence ratio, prevalence to incidence ratio, and years of life lost (YLLs) to years lived with disability (YLD) ratio and summarized them by the principal component analysis (PCA) to produce one unique index presented as the quality of care index (QCI) ranged between 0 and 100, to compare different scales. The gender disparity ratio (GDR), defined as the QCI for females divided by QCI for males, was applied to show gender inequity.

Results: In 2017, there were 255,489 new TC incident cases (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 245,709-272,470) globally, which resulted in 41,235 deaths (39,911-44,139). The estimated global QCI was 84.39. The highest QCI was observed in the European region (93.84), with Italy having the highest score (99.77). Conversely, the lowest QCI was seen in the African region (55.09), where the Central African Republic scored the lowest (13.64). The highest and lowest socio-demographic index (SDI) regions scored 97.27 and 53.85, respectively. Globally, gender disparity was higher after the age of 40 years and in favor of better care in women.

Conclusion: TC QOC is better among those countries of higher socioeconomic status, possibly due to better healthcare access and early detection in these regions. Overall, the quality of TC care was higher in women and younger adults. Countries could adopt the introduced index of QOC to investigate the quality of provided care for different diseases and conditions.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/cam4.3823DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7982631PMC
April 2021

The national trend of the gastric cancer burden in Iran from 1990 to 2017.

Asia Pac J Clin Oncol 2021 Feb 25. Epub 2021 Feb 25.

Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Introduction: Gastric cancer (GC), the leading cause of cancer mortality, is the third most common cancer in Iran. To our knowledge, there have been few accurate estimates on the burden of GC in Iran. Therefore, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we aimed to study and illustrate the burden of GC and to compare rates by sex and age groups at the national level in Iran from 1990 to 2017.

Methods: We extracted data related to the 1990-2017 period from the GBD study. To report the burden of GC, we used disability adjusted life years (DALYs), mortality, incidence, and prevalence rates in different sex and age groups in Iran during the 1990-2017 period. Decomposition analysis was also performed to evaluate the roots change in incident cases.

Results: At a national level, the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) in 2017 were 22.9 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 22.1-23.9), 14.6 (14.1-15.2), 14.9 (14.4-15.4), and 296.8 (286.3-308.7) per 100,000 population, respectively. Over the 1990-2017 period, the average annual percent changes in all of the studied age-standardized rates were negative. Moreover, the male to female sex ratios of all estimates were greater than one. The incidence rate, prevalence rate, and mortality rate slowly began to increase at the age of 50 and reached its highest level among people aged 80 years and over.

Conclusion: The GC age-standardized rates revealed a downward trend from 1990 to 2017. The current study provides comprehensive knowledge about the GC burden in Iran. Therefore, it can help the appropriate allocation of resources for GC to expand preventive programs by reducing exposure to risk factors and Helicobacter pylori infection and by recommending increased consumption of fruits and vegetables. Also, expanding GC screening programs with laboratory tests or endoscopy can be an important step towards the reduction of the GC burden.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ajco.13563DOI Listing
February 2021

A global, regional, and national survey on burden and Quality of Care Index (QCI) of brain and other central nervous system cancers; global burden of disease systematic analysis 1990-2017.

PLoS One 2021 22;16(2):e0247120. Epub 2021 Feb 22.

Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Primary brain and other central nervous system (CNS) cancers cause major burdens. In this study, we introduced a measure named the Quality of Care Index (QCI), which indirectly evaluates the quality of care given to patients with this group of cancers. Here we aimed to compare different geographic and socioeconomic patterns of CNS cancer care according to the novel measure introduced. In this regard, we acquired age-standardized primary epidemiologic measures were acquired from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 1990-2017. The primary measures were combined to make four secondary indices which all of them indirectly show the quality of care given to patients. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method was utilized to calculate the essential component named QCI. Further analyses were made based on QCI to assess the quality of care globally, regionally, and nationally (with a scale of 0-100 which higher values represent better quality of care). For 2017, the global calculated QCI was 55.0. QCI showed a desirable condition in higher socio-demographic index (SDI) quintiles. Oppositely, low SDI quintile countries (7.7) had critically worse care quality. Western Pacific Region with the highest (76.9) and African Region with the lowest QCIs (9.9) were the two WHO regions extremes. Singapore was the country with the maximum QCI of 100, followed by Japan (99.9) and South Korea (98.9). In contrast, Swaziland (2.5), Lesotho (3.5), and Vanuatu (3.9) were countries with the worse condition. While the quality of care for most regions was desirable, regions with economic constraints showed to have poor quality of care and require enforcements toward this lethal diagnosis.
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http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0247120PLOS
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7899371PMC
August 2021

Disparities in Cardiovascular Research Output and Disease Outcomes among High-, Middle- and Low-Income Countries - An Analysis of Global Cardiovascular Publications over the Last Decade (2008-2017).

Glob Heart 2021 01 18;16(1). Epub 2021 Jan 18.

Department of Medicine, The Aga Khan University, Karachi, PK.

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Health research is crucial to managing disease burden. Previous work has highlighted marked discrepancies in research output and disease burden between high-income countries (HICs) and low- and lower-middle-income countries (LI-LMICs) and there is little data to understand whether this gap has bridged in recent years. We conducted a global, country level bibliometric analysis of CVD publications with respect to trends in disease burden and county development indicators.

Methods: A search filter with a precision and recall of 0.92 and 0.91 respectively was developed to extract cardiovascular publications from the Web of Science (WOS) for the years 2008-2017. Data for disease burden and country development indicators were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease and the World Bank database respectively.

Results: Our search revealed 847,708 CVD publications for the period 2008-17, with a 43.4% increase over the decade. HICs contributed 81.1% of the global CVD research output and accounted for 8.1% and 8.5% of global CVD DALY losses deaths respectively. LI-LMICs contributed 2.8% of the total output and accounted for 59.5% and 57.1% global CVD DALY losses and death rates.

Conclusions: A glaring disparity in research output and disease burden persists. While LI-LMICs contribute to the majority of DALYs and mortality from CVD globally, their contribution to research output remains the lowest. These data call on national health budgets and international funding support to allocate funds to strengthen research capacity and translational research to impact CVD burden in LI-LMICs.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.5334/gh.815DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7845477PMC
January 2021

It's all in the details: A call for administering the COVID-19 vaccine in Lebanon through a transparent and un-politicized collaborative approach.

EClinicalMedicine 2021 Feb 5;32:100748. Epub 2021 Feb 5.

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eclinm.2021.100748DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7863766PMC
February 2021

We have to get it right: Ensuring success.

EClinicalMedicine 2021 Jan 10;31:100690. Epub 2020 Dec 10.

Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eclinm.2020.100690DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7834435PMC
January 2021

Matching action to need: an analysis of Global Burden of Disease 2017 and population health data to focus adolescent health policy and actions in Myanmar.

Glob Health Action 2021 01;14(1):1844976

Burnet Institute , Melbourne, Australia.

: Myanmar is a country undergoing rapid transitions in health. Its national strategic policy for young people's health is being revised but there is a paucity of population data to inform local priorities and needs. : In this paper we describe a comprehensive profile of adolescent health in Myanmar to focus policy and health actions. : We used available primary data, and modelled estimates from the GBD 2017, to describe health outcomes (mortality and morbidity), health risks and determinants for adolescents in Myanmar between 1990-2017. A governance group of key stakeholders guided the framing of the study, interpretation of findings, and recommendations. : Overall health has improved for adolescents in Myanmar since 1990, however adolescent mortality remains high, particularly so for older adolescent males; all-cause mortality rate for 10-24 years was 70 per 100,000 for females and 149 per 100,000 for males (16,095 adolescent deaths in 2017). Overall, the dominant health problems were injuries for males and non-communicable disease for females in a context of ongoing burden of communicable and nutritional diseases for both sexes, and reproductive health needs for females. Health risks relating to undernutrition (thinness and anaemia) remain prevalent, with other health risks (overweight, binge alcohol use, and substance use) relatively low by global and regional standards but increasing. Gains have been made in social determinants such as adolescent fertility and modern contraception use; however, advances have been more limited in secondary education completion and engagement in employment and post education training. : These results highlight the need to focus current efforts on addressing disease and mortality experienced by adolescents in Myanmar, with a specific focus on injury, mental health and non-communicable disease.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/16549716.2020.1844976DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7833024PMC
January 2021

Oral rehydration therapies in Senegal, Mali, and Sierra Leone: a spatial analysis of changes over time and implications for policy.

BMC Med 2020 12 21;18(1):405. Epub 2020 Dec 21.

Demographic Change and Aging Research Area, Federal Institute for Population Research, Wiesbaden, Germany.

Background: Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a simple intervention that can prevent childhood deaths from severe diarrhea and dehydration. In a previous study, we mapped the use of ORS treatment subnationally and found that ORS coverage increased over time, while the use of home-made alternatives or recommended home fluids (RHF) decreased, in many countries. These patterns were particularly striking within Senegal, Mali, and Sierra Leone. It was unclear, however, whether ORS replaced RHF in these locations or if children were left untreated, and if these patterns were associated with health policy changes.

Methods: We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from household surveys to map the percentage of children with diarrhea that received (1) any ORS, (2) only RHF, or (3) no oral rehydration treatment between 2000 and 2018. This approach allowed examination of whether RHF was replaced with ORS before and after interventions, policies, and external events that may have impacted healthcare access.

Results: We found that RHF was replaced with ORS in most Sierra Leone districts, except those most impacted by the Ebola outbreak. In addition, RHF was replaced in northern but not in southern Mali, and RHF was not replaced anywhere in Senegal. In Senegal, there was no statistical evidence that a national policy promoting ORS use was associated with increases in coverage. In Sierra Leone, ORS coverage increased following a national policy change that abolished health costs for children.

Conclusions: Children in parts of Mali and Senegal have been left behind during ORS scale-up. Improved messaging on effective diarrhea treatment and/or increased ORS access such as through reducing treatment costs may be needed to prevent child deaths in these areas.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12916-020-01857-7DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7750121PMC
December 2020

SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence in the general population and high-risk occupational groups across 18 cities in Iran: a population-based cross-sectional study.

Lancet Infect Dis 2021 04 15;21(4):473-481. Epub 2020 Dec 15.

Digestive Diseases Research Center, Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Shariati Hospital, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Background: Rapid increases in cases of COVID-19 were observed in multiple cities in Iran towards the start of the pandemic. However, the true infection rate remains unknown. We aimed to assess the seroprevalence of antibodies against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in 18 cities of Iran as an indicator of the infection rate.

Methods: In this population-based cross-sectional study, we randomly selected and invited study participants from the general population (from lists of people registered with the Iranian electronic health record system or health-care centres) and a high-risk population of individuals likely to have close social contact with SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals through their occupation (from employee lists provided by relevant agencies or companies, such as supermarket chains) across 18 cities in 17 Iranian provinces. Participants were asked questions on their demographic characteristics, medical history, recent COVID-19-related symptoms, and COVID-19-related exposures. Iran Food and Drug Administration-approved Pishtaz Teb SARS-CoV-2 ELISA kits were used to detect SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG and IgM antibodies in blood samples from participants. Seroprevalence was estimated on the basis of ELISA test results and adjusted for population weighting (by age, sex, and city population size) and test performance (according to our independent validation of sensitivity and specificity).

Findings: From 9181 individuals who were initially contacted between April 17 and June 2, 2020, 243 individuals refused to provide blood samples and 36 did not provide demographic information and were excluded from the analysis. Among the 8902 individuals included in the analysis, 5372 had occupations with a high risk of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 and 3530 were recruited from the general population. The overall population weight-adjusted and test performance-adjusted prevalence of antibody seropositivity in the general population was 17·1% (95% CI 14·6-19·5), implying that 4 265 542 (95% CI 3 659 043-4 887 078) individuals from the 18 cities included were infected by the end of April, 2020. The adjusted seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies varied greatly by city, with the highest estimates found in Rasht (72·6% [53·9-92·8]) and Qom (58·5% [37·2-83·9]). The overall population weight-adjusted and test performance-adjusted seroprevalence in the high-risk population was 20·0% (18·5-21·7) and showed little variation between the occupations included.

Interpretations: Seroprevalence is likely to be much higher than the reported prevalence of COVID-19 based on confirmed COVID-19 cases in Iran. Despite high seroprevalence in a few cities, a large proportion of the population is still uninfected. The potential shortcomings of current public health policies should therefore be identified to prevent future epidemic waves in Iran.

Funding: Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education.

Translation: For the Farsi translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30858-6DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7833828PMC
April 2021

Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors, 1990-2019: Update From the GBD 2019 Study.

J Am Coll Cardiol 2020 12;76(25):2982-3021

University of Alabama at Birmingham School of Public Health, Birmingham, Alabama, USA.

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. GBD, an ongoing multinational collaboration to provide comparable and consistent estimates of population health over time, used all available population-level data sources on incidence, prevalence, case fatality, mortality, and health risks to produce estimates for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Prevalent cases of total CVD nearly doubled from 271 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 257 to 285 million) in 1990 to 523 million (95% UI: 497 to 550 million) in 2019, and the number of CVD deaths steadily increased from 12.1 million (95% UI:11.4 to 12.6 million) in 1990, reaching 18.6 million (95% UI: 17.1 to 19.7 million) in 2019. The global trends for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years of life lost also increased significantly, and years lived with disability doubled from 17.7 million (95% UI: 12.9 to 22.5 million) to 34.4 million (95% UI:24.9 to 43.6 million) over that period. The total number of DALYs due to IHD has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 182 million (95% UI: 170 to 194 million) DALYs, 9.14 million (95% UI: 8.40 to 9.74 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 197 million (95% UI: 178 to 220 million) prevalent cases of IHD in 2019. The total number of DALYs due to stroke has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 143 million (95% UI: 133 to 153 million) DALYs, 6.55 million (95% UI: 6.00 to 7.02 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 101 million (95% UI: 93.2 to 111 million) prevalent cases of stroke in 2019. Cardiovascular diseases remain the leading cause of disease burden in the world. CVD burden continues its decades-long rise for almost all countries outside high-income countries, and alarmingly, the age-standardized rate of CVD has begun to rise in some locations where it was previously declining in high-income countries. There is an urgent need to focus on implementing existing cost-effective policies and interventions if the world is to meet the targets for Sustainable Development Goal 3 and achieve a 30% reduction in premature mortality due to noncommunicable diseases.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jacc.2020.11.010DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7755038PMC
December 2020

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence worldwide: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Clin Microbiol Infect 2021 Mar 24;27(3):331-340. Epub 2020 Oct 24.

Department of Veterinary Biosciences, Melbourne Veterinary School, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia. Electronic address:

Objectives: COVID-19 has been arguably the most important public health concern worldwide in 2020, and efforts are now escalating to suppress or eliminate its spread. In this study we undertook a meta-analysis to estimate the global and regional seroprevalence rates in humans of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), and to assess whether seroprevalence is associated with geographical, climatic and/or sociodemographic factors.

Methods: We systematically reviewed PubMed, Scopus, Embase, medRxiv and bioRxiv databases for preprints or peer-reviewed articles (up to 14 August 2020). Study eligibility criteria were population-based studies describing the prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 (IgG and/or IgM) serum antibodies. Participants were people from different socioeconomic and ethnic backgrounds (from the general population), whose prior COVID-19 status was unknown and who were tested for the presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 serum antibodies. We used a random-effects model to estimate pooled seroprevalence, and then extrapolated the findings to the global population (for 2020). Subgroup and meta-regression analyses explored potential sources of heterogeneity in the data, and relationships between seroprevalence and sociodemographic, geographical and/or climatic factors.

Results: In total, 47 studies involving 399 265 people from 23 countries met the inclusion criteria. Heterogeneity (I = 99.4%, p < 0.001) was seen among studies; SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in the general population varied from 0.37% to 22.1%, with a pooled estimate of 3.38% (95%CI 3.05-3.72%; 15 879/399 265). On a regional level, seroprevalence varied from 1.45% (0.95-1.94%, South America) to 5.27% (3.97-6.57%, Northern Europe), although some variation appeared to relate to the serological assay used. The findings suggested an association of seroprevalence with income levels, human development indices, geographic latitudes and/or climate. Extrapolating to the 2020 world population, we estimated that 263.5 million individuals had been exposed or infected at the time of this study.

Conclusions: This study showed that SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence varied markedly among geographic regions, as might be expected early in a pandemic. Longitudinal surveys to continually monitor seroprevalence around the globe will be critical to support prevention and control efforts, and might indicate levels of endemic stability or instability in particular countries and regions.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cmi.2020.10.020DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7584920PMC
March 2021

The Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System: Information, Relationships, and Influence.

Am J Prev Med 2020 12 18;59(6):773-775. Epub 2020 Nov 18.

Population Health Surveillance Branch, Division of Population Health, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.amepre.2020.09.001DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7852027PMC
December 2020

Burden of Neurological Disorders Across the US From 1990-2017: A Global Burden of Disease Study.

JAMA Neurol 2021 Feb;78(2):165-176

Department of Systems, Populations, and Leadership, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor.

Importance: Accurate and up-to-date estimates on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (burden) of neurological disorders are the backbone of evidence-based health care planning and resource allocation for these disorders. It appears that no such estimates have been reported at the state level for the US.

Objective: To present burden estimates of major neurological disorders in the US states by age and sex from 1990 to 2017.

Design, Setting, And Participants: This is a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study. Data on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of major neurological disorders were derived from the GBD 2017 study of the 48 contiguous US states, Alaska, and Hawaii. Fourteen major neurological disorders were analyzed: stroke, Alzheimer disease and other dementias, Parkinson disease, epilepsy, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron disease, migraine, tension-type headache, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injuries, brain and other nervous system cancers, meningitis, encephalitis, and tetanus.

Exposures: Any of the 14 listed neurological diseases.

Main Outcome And Measure: Absolute numbers in detail by age and sex and age-standardized rates (with 95% uncertainty intervals) were calculated.

Results: The 3 most burdensome neurological disorders in the US in terms of absolute number of DALYs were stroke (3.58 [95% uncertainty interval [UI], 3.25-3.92] million DALYs), Alzheimer disease and other dementias (2.55 [95% UI, 2.43-2.68] million DALYs), and migraine (2.40 [95% UI, 1.53-3.44] million DALYs). The burden of almost all neurological disorders (in terms of absolute number of incident, prevalent, and fatal cases, as well as DALYs) increased from 1990 to 2017, largely because of the aging of the population. Exceptions for this trend included traumatic brain injury incidence (-29.1% [95% UI, -32.4% to -25.8%]); spinal cord injury prevalence (-38.5% [95% UI, -43.1% to -34.0%]); meningitis prevalence (-44.8% [95% UI, -47.3% to -42.3%]), deaths (-64.4% [95% UI, -67.7% to -50.3%]), and DALYs (-66.9% [95% UI, -70.1% to -55.9%]); and encephalitis DALYs (-25.8% [95% UI, -30.7% to -5.8%]). The different metrics of age-standardized rates varied between the US states from a 1.2-fold difference for tension-type headache to 7.5-fold for tetanus; southeastern states and Arkansas had a relatively higher burden for stroke, while northern states had a relatively higher burden of multiple sclerosis and eastern states had higher rates of Parkinson disease, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine and tension-type headache, and meningitis, encephalitis, and tetanus.

Conclusions And Relevance: There is a large and increasing burden of noncommunicable neurological disorders in the US, with up to a 5-fold variation in the burden of and trends in particular neurological disorders across the US states. The information reported in this article can be used by health care professionals and policy makers at the national and state levels to advance their health care planning and resource allocation to prevent and reduce the burden of neurological disorders.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jamaneurol.2020.4152DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7607495PMC
February 2021

Maxims for a Pandemic: Time, Distance, and Data.

Ann Intern Med 2021 01 27;174(1):111-112. Epub 2020 Oct 27.

University of Washington, Seattle, Washington (S.M.O., A.H.M.).

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http://dx.doi.org/10.7326/M20-6934DOI Listing
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7596740PMC
January 2021
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